Black Monday(UPDATED: Fangio OUT; Zim & Spielman OUT; Nagy & Pace OUT; Flores OUT; Judge OUT; Culley OUT)

[GunnerBill]

As we enter the penultimate week of the NFL regular season the one thing we know, for sure, is that Black Monday will bring to an end coaching and General Manager reigns right across the league. This is my breakdown of who is at risk and who might be likely to replace them:

 

Already Open

Jacksonville Jaguars - The Urban Meyer experiment failed about as spectacularly as it possibly could have and so for the second time in as many offseasons the Jaguars are looking for a new Head man. They didn't do a very thorough search last year, fixating on Meyer early in the process. The smart money seems to be on an offensive mind to develop Trevor Lawrence. Despite public statements to the contrary I understand General Manager Trent Baalke is not on firm ground either and that his continued employment will depend on who is hired as coach.

 

Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders are coachless without being terrible, with Gruden's resignation being for other reasons. However, for a third consecutive season a strong start to the season has faded down to stretch and they are likely to miss the playoffs again. General Manager Mike Mayock was very much Gruden's guy and his future remains to be seen. Derek Carr's presence does at least mean the latest Raiders rebuild doesn't need to start at Quarterback. 

 

Beyond the point of no return....

Chicago Bears - Matt Nagy was coach of the year his first year in charge of the Bears but is 21-26 since and despite being an offensive guy has presided over some of the most anaemic offenses in the NFL while working his way through Trubisky, Foles, Dalton and Justin Fields at Quarterback. He is almost certainly out and Ryan Pace who has been a walking disaster of a GM should follow. Chicago might be tempted to focus on an offensive mind again to develop Fields but to my mind the key trait they should be looking for is a program builder who will give the Bears an identity. Something they have lacked since firing Lovie Smith. 

 

Hanging by a thread

New York Giants - Joe Judge seemed to have made some progress in his first year with the G men and they ended the season playing hard despite being under talented. However, they have regressed this year and with the rumour mill suggesting beleaguered 70 year old GM Dave Gettleman is definitely out after 4 dreadful seasons in the chair it feels more than likely that Judge - an unheralded Patriots special teams coach when hired - will be fired as a house cleaning that also involves moving on from third year Quarterback Daniel Jones begins. This is a total re-set and needs a Head Coach and GM tandem with vision and a clear direction to reinvigorate what has become a moribund NFL franchise. 

 

In trouble

Carolina Panthers - Carolina's season unravelled after a promising start, they are 2-10 since the beginning of October. Matt Rhule is in year 2 of a 7 year deal but this roster has a lot of talent on defense and good skill position players. The Quarterback position has been mishandled almost since Rhule arrived and some of the blame for that rightly lies at Joe Brady's door as the now fired Offensive Coordinator found the NFL less to his tastes than LSU. But Rhule was brought in for his leadership skills and the fractious environment in Carolina this year does not speak well to those. Scott Fitterer was hired as GM a year ago with Rhule already in place, and whether he feels any loyalty there or fancies the chance to hire his own guy remains to be seen. But owner David Pepper does not have a reputation for patience. 

 

Minnesota Vikings - Mike Zimmer has had a good run in Minnesota, now in his 8th year, but the pattern of playoffs ever other year is about to be broken. At 7-8 they go into the final two weeks outside the playoff spots and with a clash with Green Bay next on the docket. Despite making the NFC Championship Game in 2017 there is a feeling that Zimmer has reached a plateau and unless Minnesota finds a miracle that puts them back in the playoff picture these final 2 weeks I suspect change is coming, though one would presume Rick Spielman who has consistently stocked this roster with talent is safe. 

 

Denver Broncos - Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minds of his generation. The Broncos defense is #1 in the league in points per game. But they still go into the final 2 weeks below .500 and looking at another season without the playoffs. Fangio is 63 and this, like Carolina, is a situation where a new GM with no ties to Fangio arrived last spring. It feels like change is coming, and this would be an attractive job. Patrick Surtain should win rookie of the year (he won't but he has been the best rookie in the league without question) and there is talent on both sides of the ball for a new coach to work with. The issue? You are in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Good luck. 

 

Might walk away

Seattle Seahawks - Pete Carroll is a young and energetic 70 year old. But his roster is a mess, he just suffered his first losing season since 2011 and it is hard to see this team contending again soon. Even Russell Wilson has looked kind of stale this season around his injury and this franchise looks in need of something. They gave GM John Schneider a huge extension last offseason when he was linked with the GM job in Detroit but from being one of the best drafting teams in the league in the first half of the last decade they have become one of the worst. Since the rookie pay scale and standardised rookie contracts were introduced in 2011 the Seahawks have not had a single 1st round pick sign a 2nd contract with the team (their last was Earl Thomas drafted in 2010!) and that sort of draft record plus spending multiple first rounders trading for a safety is how you end up with a talent deficient roster. I even think Pete has sounded like a man ready to walk away in recent press conferences. 

 

 

So with the standard 5-7 jobs open who fills those posts? I have been pretty consistent in saying the NFL churn is depleting the pool too quickly and there simply isn't the time for the coordinator pool to replenish with guys ready to take on the challenge of being the Head Coach of a franchise. For every Brandon Staley there is a Joe Judge when it comes to inexperienced guys getting a shot. So who are the runners and riders to watch:

 

The retreads

Leslie Frazier - this is a Bills board so let's start with the Bills' interest. Leslie Frazier is about to have a third top 5 defense in 5 years in Buffalo and while 62 year old, defensive retreads with low key personalities are not sexy hires there are some franchises in my list above who would benefit from just having a mature adult in the room for a few years - Jags, Raiders and Seahawks for example. He is hugely respected across the league and interviewed last year in a similarly volatile situation in Houston. 

 

Todd Bowles - personally if I was a team looking for a coach Bowles would be the first name on my interview list. He had a ten win season on arrival in New York and while they never hit those heights again he wouldn't be the first man dragged down by the dysfunction of that organisation. He has impressively rebuilt his reputation as a Superbowl winning defensive coordinator in Tampa and he does carry himself with a presence. The key question for Bowles will be who would his offensive coordinator be and what kind of offense does he want to run? 

 

Doug Pederson - on the face of it, the best coach on the market. He beat Bill Belichick in a Superbowl less than 4 years ago! However, there is a reason why he is now out of work. He oversaw the decline of Carson Wentz in Philly and allowed the locker room culture to collapse in on itself after climbing the mountain. A lot of blame was transferred to the GM for the roster but a rookie Head Coach has them in a playoff spot with two weeks to go. Personally I wouldn't touch Pederson with a 10 foot pole but that Lombardi will get him a 2nd crack at some point. Could this be the year? 

 

Jim Caldwell - Caldwell is 62-50 as an NFL Head Coach with 4 playoff appearances in 7 seasons. He was a victim of the Manning neck injury (and Bill Polian's increasingly erratic approach to roster building) in Indy after leading them to a Superbowl in his first year in charge and then was a victim of Bob Quinn wanting to build a mini New England in Detroit. However, he is 66 and there have been health concerns. I could only really see him as a fit in a "win now" type situation and not sure how many of those are about to become available.

 

Dennis Allen - Look, I get it, his time in Oakland was a disaster. But Dennis Allen has done sterling work as the defensive coordinator in New Orleans, allowing the Saints to keep themselves competitive as the offense has gradually got less and less productive. He is about to have top 5 defenses in consecutive years and he should be getting looks. There are legitimate questions about his ability to lead but he can coach and in such a depleted candidate pool I feel he should not be overlooked. 

 

Raheem Morris - it always amazed me how long it took Raheem Morris to climb back up the ranks after he was fired in Tampa Bay. He had a 10 win season among his three years as a Head Coach there and when he finally did get the chance as an interim in Atlanta last year he generally impressed people with his approach. Taking over from Brandon Staley was somewhat of a poisoned chalice in LA and while the defense has not been the number 1 unit it was last year he has still garnered rave reviews from his players and could be seen as a unifying force for teams with a divided locker room. 

 

Guys looking for the first shot

Brian Daboll - again I will start with the Bills interest and the word on the street seems to be that Daboll is less of a hot name than he was this time last year when he interviewed in two places and declined the chance to interview in a third. However, his work with Josh Allen will still be attractive to teams trying to develop young Quarterbacks and I would expect both Jacksonville and Chicago to take a serious look. 

 

Byron Leftwich - the hottest offensive name of this cycle promises to be Byron Leftwich the Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator who is looking to parlay working with Tom Brady into a Head Coaching opportunity. His work with a rookie (albeit Josh Rosen) in Arizona was less impressive so to my mind Leftwich is a better fit somewhere that a vet Quarterback is already in place. Seattle is the one screaming out to me if Pete does decide to walk away but Las Vegas makes sense too.

 

Nathaniel Hackett - a name that might surprise Bills fans who remember his patented run, run, pass, punt offense and rushing CJ Spiller "until he pukes". But Hackett did a nice job making Blake Bortles look serviceable all the way to the AFC Championship game of 2017 with the Jags and has then been an effective OC in Green Bay. But the real reason Hackett will be a popular name? He apparently gets on extremely well with Aaron Rodgers and is often the mediator in a prickly relationship between Quarterback and Head Coach with the Packers. If Rodgers is indeed on the move this offseason then having Hackett as your Head Coach might be the most effective of recruiting tools. *Cough* Denver *cough*.

 

Shane Steichen - not the most experienced name on the list but if teams want a young flexible and creative offensive mind then the Eagles' OC Shane Steichen should be on their call list. Last year he coordinated Justin Herbert to a rookie of the year crown and this year he has masterminded a top 10 scoring offense behind Jalen Hurts and a power run game. Someone like the Giants or the Panthers who might be in the market for drafting a rookie and want to design a scheme dependant on the strengths of who they end up with might be a fit. 

 

Eric Bieniemy - at risk of becoming the perennial bridesmaid that is never the bride but Bieniemy will be a name that garners interest again. I have heard that he has interviewed poorly in previous years and concerns over previous off field conduct do linger as does the suggestion that Andy Reid had to become much more involved in day to day game planning earlier in the year when the Chiefs offense was in a funk. Might be attractive to a team wanting a name for the fan base - so Chicago or the Giants - but is by no means a slam dunk to land a job this time around either. 

 

Kellen Moore - Dallas has the league's number 1 offense in yards and points which has made Moore the young hotshot OC that everyone is talking about. The feeling is that Jerry Jones very much sees him as the Cowboys Head Coach in waiting but a team like Jacksonville needing desperately to make their young Quarterback successful might throw enough cash his way to decide that now is the time to strike.

 

Matt Eberflus - the Colts defense doesn't have a lot of star power in term of names beyond DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard but it is second in the NFL in taking the ball away and just plays fundamentally sound football. Originally Josh McDaniels choice for his defensive coordinator but also highly regarded by Frank Reich and Chris Ballard. Eberflus isn't flashy. He might not win the press conference. But he can coach. A culture builder that would be a fit in a number of spots. 

 

DeMeco Ryans - has a top 5 defense in his first year as the 49ers defensive coordinator and while normally you would say more seasoning required but as we saw with Brandon Staley last year that is not always the case. An all-pro linebacker as a player, only relatively recently retired he would command immediate respect in a locker room. 

 

 

Final thought is that it is nice as a Bills fan not to be looking at this pool of candidates and searching for a nugget among quite a lot of uninspiring names. But the wheel will continue to spin and 5 or 6 teams will take the risk and make a change in the weeks to come. 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by GunnerBill

[eball]

What’s your take on the reported rumor that Ken Dorsey would follow Frazier if he lands a HC job?

[Chandler#81]

What’s with all the age references? You got som’n agin old men? Ya snot-nosed punk! 😉

 

(Great thread, btw!)

 

[GETTOTHE50]

If Hackett gets a head coaching gig, then I will truly believe anything is possible. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Having read TSW within the last month, I would respectfully submit you forgot to list GM and HC as 'hanging by a thread' in Buffalo. 🤔

*
😁 Interesting analysis, a good read.  Thank you.

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Having read TSW within the last month, I would respectfully submit you forgot to list GM and HC as 'hanging by a thread' in Buffalo. 🤔

*
😁 Interesting analysis, a good read.  Thank you.

 

You kill me Ridge...I was thinking the same thing

[Utah John]

13 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

If Hackett gets a head coaching gig, then I will truly believe anything is possible. 

It's possible that "Can't" Hackett has learned a thing or two that he didn't know when he was here.

[JMF2006]

Awesome post and breakdown Gunner

The Jags should hire Chris Jericho

 

He is already on the payroll and they could get the crowd pumped at every home game coming out to Fozie's Judas

[JMF2006]

Just so happy the Bills are done with the Wash/Rinse/Repeat cycle of change.

[Coach Tuesday]

Good writeup but man, that is a sad list of prospects.  When he was with the Jets, Todd Bowles was the worst situational coach I’ve ever seen.  Just absolutely no clue what was going on around him.  Glad the Bills aren’t in the market this year.

[JMF2006]

The side note on Pederson should be that yes he won a Lombardi but no coach in the history of the NFL has won one with one team and gone on to win another with a different team.

Edited January 2, 2022 by JMF2006
sentence structure forgot BE

[17islongenough]

Not sure if you can use the word retread anymore

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good writeup but man, that is a sad list of prospects.  When he was with the Jets, Todd Bowles was the worst situational coach I’ve ever seen.  Just absolutely no clue what was going on around him.  Glad the Bills aren’t in the market this year.

 

I agree it is a sad list. The league cannot sustain 6 or 7 vacancies a year. It depletes the pool too quickly. 

[Philly McButterpants]

Great write up! Thanks 👍

[EmotionallyUnstable]

According to many on this board, you forgot McDermott on the “in trouble” list.

[muppy]

so many jobs so few quality applicants. It happens in the NFL and it happens t0 college football programs too. You want to try to give guys their shot to succeed so Im more a fan of those hires than I have other names. For every Frank Reich there just may be an Eric Bienemey waiting in the wings so we shall see.

 

The Fighting Irish in the Fiesta Bowl yesterday trotted out Marcus Freeman,  a highly regarded but was his First head coaching  Ever...his team gave up 3 TD's to lose that game. Hubby says he was outcoached in 2nd half but that isn't the whole story......

 

anyway I interject that because if u go with the younger less experienced prospect you may have some bumps in the road...NFL isnt very forgiving ask Urban Meyer. N.ot F.or L.ong  indeed.

 

m

[Chandler#81]

30 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

The side note on Pederson should that yes he won a Lombardi but no coach in the history of the NFL has won one with one team and gone on to win another with a different team.

Semantics. Weeb Ewbank won with John Unitas in Baltimore just before the AFL began play, then won SBIII with the Jets.

[JMF2006]

3 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Semantics. Weeb Ewbank won with John Unitas in Baltimore just before the AFL began play, then won SBIII with the Jets.

 

So the Bills are really 2-4 in Superbowls?

[HOUSE]

So the Knee Cap Biter stays ? haaaaa

 

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Scott Fitterer was hired as GM a year ago with Rhule already in place, and whether he feels any loyalty there or fancies the chance to hire his own guy remains to be seen. But owner David Pepper does not have a reputation for patience. 

    I’m of the understanding that Rhule has as much or more say as Fitterer in big decision. This was part of the agreement he secured with Tepper when Tepper swooped in to whoo him before he could even get to the Giants interview.

     Tepper is the only one with firing power.

    Rhule has lost the locker room. It actually started at least a month ago. I feel there is a 50/50 chance he gets the boot.