Does Any Team That Passed on Josh in 2018 Draft NOT Regret It?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

For those interested -

 

Denver is a great case study on how teams can ruin a draft with moves and decisions far off from draft day itself.

 

coming off the 2017 Season, Denver had just gone 5-11 with 11 Starts from Siemien, and a few from Oswieler and a couple from Lynch.  Lynch as many will recall, had been drafted by the Broncos late in round 1 of the 2016 NFL Draft.  It is a confirmed fact that both Jerry Jones of the Cowboys and Andy Ried of the Chiefs also wanted Lynch.  

 

Going into that draft Dallas had no.4 overall, that they used on Ezekial Elliot, and had picks 34 (rd 2) and 67 (rd 3)  

KC had pick 28 (rd 1) pick 59 (rd 2) and didn't have a 3rd round choice...which is VERY important, and I'll get to it in a moment.

Denver had pick 31 (rd 1) 63 (rd2) and 94 (rd 3)

 

As the draft progressed toward the later part of round 1, it was known by the Broncos, Chiefs and Cowboys that all 3 were looking to draft Lynch.  When Seattle and Pick 26 came up, they were willing to deal out and started taking calls.  Denver ultimately traded 31 and 94 to move up to 26 and take Paxton Lynch.  Kansas City only would have needed to move up 2 spots from 28 to 26 but did not have a third round selection to beat Denvers offer.  KC did have a 4th at 126, but clearly 31 and 94 are better than 28 and 126.  The Cowboys also couldn't beat Denvers offer....and ended up taking Dak Prescott later on.

 

The next domino to fall for Denver was the rift this caused between Gary Kubiak and John Elway.  Kubiak who was the head coach, did not want Paxton Lynch...as it turns out, he wanted Prescott.  It should be noted that Prescott missed a flight to Denver for a pre draft interview with Elway.  Kubiak would go on and coach the Broncos in 2016, with Trevor Simien, not Lynch, as his QB.  Lynch couldn't beat out Simien, a rookie 7th rounder.  Kubiak "retired" after the 2016 season.

 

Elway hired Vance Joseph to be the new HC in 2017.  Lynch, could not beat out Simien still, and Brock Oswieler was also back at this point.  The Broncos went 5-11 and it was clear at this piont that Lynch was a bust but......Joseph was only 1 year into his contract and Denver still had alot of the peices on defense that won them super bowl 50.  During the offseason, Elway considered a coaching change and new direction, but decided to retain the staff and announce publicly that the staff would return but must win to earn another season. It was a public ultimatum.   At this point they were  NOT drafting a QB.  It is unusual a team with a lame duck coach, to draft a QB...the coach doesn't have the luxury of time to develop that QB.  Denver then signed Case Keenum, further cementing the idea they weren't in the QB market heading into the 2018 Draft.....and Lynch was still on the roster even though at this point it was known he was a bust.  

 

When draft day came, Denver, I believe may have had a deal in place to move out of 5 with Buffalo...but when the Browns surprised everyone at pick 4 and took CB Denzel Ward, Denver stayed at 5 and took Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State.  He's been OK...and hurt quite a bit.  Josh Allen was sitting there, at 5, and couldhave been had for NOTHING, if Denver was in the market.  It was pretty well known Elway really thought highly of Allen but since he had a coach, who had to win now, and was still stung by the Lynch bust, Elway passed.

 

ultimately, Denver would only go 6-10, with poor QB play, Joseph was fired after the year anyhow, Case Keenum proved to not be the answer and Denver went into the 2019 offseason NO BETTER OFF than they had been the year before....and had Josh Allen in their lap.  They would hire Vic Fangio, and trade for a washed up Joe Flacco heading into 2019.

 

...and if you are a Bills fan...that pretty much sums it up....and you can stop reading here if you want...but...remember how I said that missing 3rd round pick in 2016 was very important?  Keep reading if you want to learn more about that....not having that pick set up not just the Broncos and Lynch and those dominoes...but had a profound impact on the Chiefs future as well.

 

Just a few days before that 2016 Draft, KC had to forfiet their 3rd round pick (no 91 overall) due to tampering with Jeremy Maclin who KC ended up signing as a FA.  When it came time to make the move up from 28 to 26, KC didn't have the ammo to beat the Broncos.  Denver got pick 26 for 31 and 94.  KC would have been able to offer 28 and 91 for that pick if Roger Goodell hadn't taken it away for tampering.  

 

Having lost out in the Paxton Lynch derby, KC ended up trading out of pick 28, moving back with the 49ers and 

 Kansas City traded its first-round selection (28th) and seventh-round selection (249th) to San Francisco in exchange for San Francisco's second-, fourth-, and sixth-round selections (37th, 105th, and 178th).  With pick 37 KC would end up taking DT Chris Jones.  with the 4th rounder, KC took OG Parker Ehinger, who they ended up trading to the Cowboys for practice squad CB, Charvarious Ward, who has started for KC the last 3 years.  But more important was that having missed out on Lynch, KC was still in the QB market in 2017, and of course moved up from 27 to 10 in the trade with the Bills and drafted Mahomes.  that 27th overall ended up being Tre White and the next season, the Bills drafted Josh Allen. 

 

How different it all might have been for alot of teams and players....

 

 

 

Great write up. If the Jets drafted Allen, Bills would have passed on Mahommes the previous year and likely would have taken Rosen or Darnold.  Bills were not the only team to pass on Mahommes. 9 others did as well.  

[TheFunPolice]

Allen is 7th in the league in passing yards and 3rd in passing TDs.

 

Plus he adds a ton of yards on the ground that none of the guys ahead of him add.

 

Not bad for a guy having a "down year"

 

 

[Seventeen]

7 hours ago, mannc said:

My immediate reaction: Elway is an f-ing moron. But I already knew that.

 

And great for us that he is ... still shocked Elway didn't look at Josh's raw talent and see himself in the mirror.

[TheFunPolice]

It's not crazy to say that Allen is the best QB from that loaded QB class.

 

It's at least between him and Lamar Jackson. 

[muppy]

a spilt miik thread..these will drive a person crazy there will always be whiffs and home runs in the NFL draft. 50-50 hindsight and Allen would have been picked higher but alas those scenarios are thankfully MOOT

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I don't think the Giants regret taking Barkley.  Not because they shouldn't regret it.  I just think "regret" implies a certain level of self awareness that their front office lacks.

Edited January 2, 2022 by SageAgainstTheMachine

[ganesh]

19 hours ago, notwoz said:

If I recall, the big knock against Allen when he was drafted was that his "accuracy" was not very good ...  and those naysayers claimed accuracy could not be taught. I guess the argument was that accuracy was some sort of innate skill or talent that only God could bestow. Well, the Bills' brain trust saw a baller and decided he could become a franchise QB. Not every front office can  cut though the baloney and see the talent lying below the surface.

 

The question then becomes, which teams had the patience (and luxury) to develop a raw talent into a HOF candidate. Apparently, only one. And damn I'm glad the Bills were the one. 

I think your last line hits the nail on the head.   The Bills (even though they started Allen right in the 1st game after half time) have been very patient with his development and reaping the benefit of it now.  That adage about letting something develop cannot be more true here. Kudos to McDermott for that.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, TH3 said:

Didn’t the Bills pretty toss him out to sink or swim at the end of the day anyway?

 

well….at the end of that ravens game?

Yes. But they didn't give up on him after a couple of bad games, did they? They did everything to develop Allen and surround him with talent.

[HamptonBillsfan]

When you pass on a HOF talent in favor of a pedestrian QBs(Mayfield ,Darnold) you are on your way to Palookaville.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

Not sure what that has to do with my comment, but do you.

it won’t matter for the Colts if he becomes an all time G.  The value, compared to the Josh pick (thread topic) isn’t comparable.  

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

it won’t matter for the Colts if he becomes an all time G.  The value, compared to the Josh pick (thread topic) isn’t comparable.  

As I said…..I’m not sure what that has to do with my comment.  I said that I agreed with the gent I was replying to.  I was just putting things into better perspective.  He’s not just an all pro guard.  He an all time guard…..yet still not nearly as valuable as josh.

 

if they win a SB while he’s on the team, he’ll be one of the biggest reasons why.

 

[RunninRebel37]

20 hours ago, SCBills said:

If it wasn’t clear enough for you, yes, if I could take Allen or Mahomes right now… I’m taking Allen.  
 

It was always going to take Allen a few years to get to this level, and now that he has, his ceiling is higher than Mahomes and he’s built to play in Buffalo.  

That’s the most Homer response possible. I’m rootin for JA, I want him to be great and surpass Mahomes’ accomplishments, but but take your Western New York lens off and be real. 

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, RunninRebel37 said:

That’s the most Homer response possible. I’m rootin for JA, I want him to be great and surpass Mahomes’ accomplishments, but but take your Western New York lens off and be real. 

I live in Atlanta and still stand by it, even though you waited for him to throw a couple picks to respond. 

[Mr. WEO]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

As I said…..I’m not sure what that has to do with my comment.  I said that I agreed with the gent I was replying to.  I was just putting things into better perspective.  He’s not just an all pro guard.  He an all time guard…..yet still not nearly as valuable as josh.

 

if they win a SB while he’s on the team, he’ll be one of the biggest reasons why.

 

 

 

I disagree.  That would be impossible.  Evan at his maximum, he can't impact the outcome as can a skill position player.  

 

If they win a SB, kit will because of the QB play and their current RB.  

[Jay_Fixit]

23 hours ago, BillsPride12 said:

The Colts still had Luck though at the time, that's the only team on the list that I can't fault them for not taking Josh.  Was just having the discussion with a friend at the gym today about how in the world did Elway miss on drafting Allen to the Broncos.  

Oh you were at the gym?

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I disagree.  That would be impossible.  Evan at his maximum, he can't impact the outcome as can a skill position player.  

 

If they win a SB, kit will because of the QB play and their current RB.  

tell that to Larry Allen.  
 

this is a ridiculous take.  So ridiculous that I would spend too much time explaining how ridiculous it.  Instead, I’m going to enjoy my wife’s company, watch the wire and read some more hot takes