All Pro Ballot: Bill Barnwell Edition

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

But when you need that big stop, it just seems like a crapshoot.  

 

Like a # teams (Dallas being the most obvious, but GB, LA and others too), they can look real good vs. bad teams, but against good offenses, it is a different story.

 

That is the NFL. The league doesn't want critical stops it wants critical conversions. The Bills are 2nd best on 3rd down and 8th best on 4th down. They are only 11th in redzone defense which I think they will be slightly frustrated by. You don't get to consistently be in the top 5 of so many defensive categories as the Bills defense is if you are only ever good against bad teams. In addition, Football Outsiders has the Bills still as the #4 defense in the NFL by weighted DVOA which takes into account strength of opponent. 

 

If you want to argue they are #4 in the league rather than #1 I will hear you out because schedules are not made equal. But if you want to argue that the Bills don't have a top 5 defense because occasionally they give up a 3rd down conversion you don't have a leg to stand on. 

[Billsfan1972]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is the NFL. The league doesn't want critical stops it wants critical conversions. The Bills are 2nd best on 3rd down and 8th best on 4th down. They are only 11th in redzone defense which I think they will be slightly frustrated by. You don't get to consistently be in the top 5 of so many defensive categories as the Bills defense is if you are only ever good against bad teams. In addition, Football Outsiders has the Bills still as the #4 defense in the NFL by weighted DVOA which takes into account strength of opponent. 

 

If you want to argue they are #4 in the league rather than #1 I will hear you out because schedules are not made equal. But if you want to argue that the Bills don't have a top 5 defense because occasionally they give up a 3rd down conversion you don't have a leg to stand on. 

It is a continual issue watching the Bills.  Throw out the Indy game, where nothing went well, but then there is the Wind game and that 76 yard run (still nightmares at how bad they played that).  There are those 4th down conversions, that shouldn't happen as often as they do (vs. NE in particular).  The Derek Henry TD, and a bad OT vs. TB.  

 

That and the inexperienced or backup qb's the bills have faced this year, is almost comical.

 

Look as said get through the next two games and let's focus on the playoffs.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

It is a continual issue watching the Bills.  Throw out the Indy game, where nothing went well, but then there is the Wind game and that 76 yard run (still nightmares at how bad they played that).  There are those 4th down conversions, that shouldn't happen as often as they do (vs. NE in particular).  The Derek Henry TD, and a bad OT vs. TB.  

 

That and the inexperienced or backup qb's the bills have faced this year, is almost comical.

 

Look as said get through the next two games and let's focus on the playoffs.

 

 

They give up some plays, yes. So does every single team. You could go through every defense in the league and come up with half a dozen plays. As for 4th down... there are 24 teams in the NFL worse than them at that. Your standard is out of whack. You want dominant shut down defense and the NFL hasn't seen one of those in over half a decade. The Bills have one of the very best defenses in the league, if not the best. Throwing out half a dozen bad plays as proof they don't is weak.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

It is a continual issue watching the Bills.  Throw out the Indy game, where nothing went well, but then there is the Wind game and that 76 yard run (still nightmares at how bad they played that).  There are those 4th down conversions, that shouldn't happen as often as they do (vs. NE in particular).  The Derek Henry TD, and a bad OT vs. TB.  

 

That and the inexperienced or backup qb's the bills have faced this year, is almost comical.

 

Look as said get through the next two games and let's focus on the playoffs.

 

 
Geezus lol

 

The Bills defense has had roughly 900 offensive plays against them.  You point out a handful of plays as evidence they aren’t that good.  The way you think is absurd.

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They give up some plays, yes. So does every single team. You could go through every defense in the league and come up with half a dozen plays. As for 4th down... there are 24 teams in the NFL worse than them at that. Your standard is out of whack. You want dominant shut down defense and the NFL hasn't seen one of those in over half a decade. The Bills have one of the very best defenses in the league, if not the best. Throwing out half a dozen bad plays as proof they don't is weak.

Again the Bills have faced very few good QBs all year.  The # of back-ups and rookies unbelievable.  Only Brady & Mahomes.  And when Tennessee needed plays Tannehill delivered vs. the Bills too.

 

Not saying they are bad, just the games the Bills really needed them to step up, they really haven't been anything more then okay.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again the Bills have faced very few good QBs all year.  The # of back-ups and rookies unbelievable.  Only Brady & Mahomes.  And when Tennessee needed plays Tannehill delivered vs. the Bills too.

 

Not saying they are bad, just the games the Bills really needed them to step up, they really haven't been anything more then okay.

 

You mean they can't absolutely shut down Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes? Wow. Overrated. Tennessee is a tough match up for the Bills defense. I said that last year, I said it before this year, I said it before that game. Which other game do you think the defense let us down in? The Jags game where the O scored 3? The Pats game where the O scored 10? The Steelers game where we gave up a ST touchdown? 

 

They were bad vs Indy and below par vs Tennessee. They are tough matchups for the Bills the way we are built. Again - that is the NFL. There isn't a single defense in the league that can just line up and play with everyone. Every defense is susceptible to something, especially given the way the games are called. 

 

The Bills defense is one of the best in the league. Your feelings don't change that. 

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You mean they can't absolutely shut down Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes? Wow. Overrated. Tennessee is a tough match up for the Bills defense. I said that last year, I said it before this year, I said it before that game. Which other game do you think the defense let us down in? The Jags game where the O scored 3? The Pats game where the O scored 10? The Steelers game where we gave up a ST touchdown? 

 

They were bad vs Indy and below par vs Tennessee. They are tough matchups for the Bills the way we are built. Again - that is the NFL. There isn't a single defense in the league that can just line up and play with everyone. Every defense is susceptible to something, especially given the way the games are called. 

 

The Bills defense is one of the best in the league. Your feelings don't change that. 

Read what I said.  They are good, but hard to really tell based on the offenses and QB's they faced.  They played very well vs. Mahomes and had a good second half vs. TB (terrible the first half and in OT).

 

Tannehill was the 3rd best qb they faced and he started terrible the first half, but like the Pats last week, scored every time they touched the ball the second half. 

 

When you mention the "Wind Game", regardless what you say they allowed a 75 yard TD run on 3rd & 5 when everyone knew they were running and I hated the defensive set they had that play.  They also let Mac gain 5 yards on two QB sneaks (including 4th down), which was disappointing. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Read what I said.  They are good, but hard to really tell based on the offenses and QB's they faced.  They played very well vs. Mahomes and had a good second half vs. TB (terrible the first half and in OT).

 

Tannehill was the 3rd best qb they faced and he started terrible the first half, but like the Pats last week, scored every time they touched the ball the second half. 

 

When you mention the "Wind Game", regardless what you say they allowed a 75 yard TD run on 3rd & 5 when everyone knew they were running and I hated the defensive set they had that play.  They also let Mac gain 5 yards on two QB sneaks (including 4th down), which was disappointing. 

 

Again, you are just cherry picking a handful of plays. It is pointless unless you are going to go through every team in the league and do the same exercise. And you don't need to, because other people do and those  Yes, they have had some bad plays. Like. Every. Defense. In. Football. The Bills have fewer than most. As of the Carolina game (can't find the stat after this past week) the Bills had give up the fewest plays of 20 yards or more in the NFL this season. 

[Billsfan1972]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Again, you are just cherry picking a handful of plays. It is pointless unless you are going to go through every team in the league and do the same exercise. And you don't need to, because other people do and those  Yes, they have had some bad plays. Like. Every. Defense. In. Football. The Bills have fewer than most. As of the Carolina game (can't find the stat after this past week) the Bills had give up the fewest plays of 20 yards or more in the NFL this season. 

 But the only team to have given up 3, 45 yd plus touchdown runs.

 

 Again look at the quarterbacks that played against.  If the defense is good unfortunately there have been times that it has let the team down, &  And I pointed out the Tennessee and the Tampa Bay games.  

 

 And they play 2 cupcake offenses the next 2 weeks and I'm sure they'll do just fine fingers crossed.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 But the only team to have given up 3, 45 yd plus touchdown runs.

 

 Again look at the quarterbacks that played against.  If the defense is good unfortunately there have been times that it has let the team down, &  And I pointed out the Tennessee and the Tampa Bay games.  

 

 And they play 2 cupcake offenses the next 2 weeks and I'm sure they'll do just fine fingers crossed.

 

It also helped get them back into the Tampa game. Tennessee it struggled, no doubt. Indy it was awful. They are just bad matchups and it is the same for every defense which you are not acknowledging. 

 

Which defenses do you think are better than Buffalo's? Or are you saying it is a top 5 defense and still not good enough because if you are then that is on you not on them. You have to acknowledge the way the game is played in 2021. 

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It also helped get them back into the Tampa game. Tennessee it struggled, no doubt. Indy it was awful. They are just bad matchups and it is the same for every defense which you are not acknowledging. 

 

Which defenses do you think are better than Buffalo's? Or are you saying it is a top 5 defense and still not good enough because if you are then that is on you not on them. You have to acknowledge the way the game is played in 2021. 

Talk about cherry picking.....  Didn't Brady throw for 250 the first half and the Fournette TD run?

 

Right now I'm sure everyone is excited about the 'boys.  But Washington & the Giants are terrible.....

 

All teams have warts.    

 

Let the Bills get in the playoffs and hope the Defense does their job.

 

As said I'm holding my breath every third down & awaiting that conversion (or waiting for that yellow flag).

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Talk about cherry picking.....  Didn't Brady throw for 250 the first half and the Fournette TD run?

 

Right now I'm sure everyone is excited about the 'boys.  But Washington & the Giants are terrible.....

 

All teams have warts.    

 

Let the Bills get in the playoffs and hope the Defense does their job.

 

As said I'm holding my breath every third down & awaiting that conversion (or waiting for that yellow flag).

 

 

But the numbers really say you shouldn't. The defense will do their job. I have no doubt about that. I hope the offense can continue on their hot streak and do theirs. 

[Billsfan1972]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the numbers really say you shouldn't. The defense will do their job. I have no doubt about that. I hope the offense can continue on their hot streak and do theirs. 

What hot streak?  A half vs. TB (failure in OT), not so great vs. Carolina and yep a great game vs. NE.

 

Look closer at the $'s and they are just okay imo.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What hot streak?  A half vs. TB (failure in OT), not so great vs. Carolina and yep a great game vs. NE.

 

Look closer at the $'s and they are just okay imo.

 

Two and a half games all against very good defenses. Defenses that are very good but still sometimes give up plays.... who'd have thought it.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is the NFL. The league doesn't want critical stops it wants critical conversions. The Bills are 2nd best on 3rd down and 8th best on 4th down. They are only 11th in redzone defense which I think they will be slightly frustrated by. You don't get to consistently be in the top 5 of so many defensive categories as the Bills defense is if you are only ever good against bad teams. In addition, Football Outsiders has the Bills still as the #4 defense in the NFL by weighted DVOA which takes into account strength of opponent. 

 

If you want to argue they are #4 in the league rather than #1 I will hear you out because schedules are not made equal. But if you want to argue that the Bills don't have a top 5 defense because occasionally they give up a 3rd down conversion you don't have a leg to stand on. 

 

 

I do notice that it seems the entire division outside of the Jets has certainly taken advantage of all of the average to very bad offenses. And it seems like there has been more than usual this year for all three teams, Bills, Pats and Dolphins. It is really amazing the terrible offenses the Dolphins have played on their current winning streak. The one big difference between the Dolphins and the Bills is that the Bills are beating these bad teams by 20+ points on average. Where as the Dolphins are winning by a more normal 10 point margin on average. 

 

The Dolphins suddenly went from like average in a lot of defensive categories to like #1 over their current winning streak. They sacked that poor Saints QB like 8 times the other night?  I do think the Bills and Pats have also benefited from playing a lot of the similar poor offenses. And the Bills will hopefully continue to benefit with the Falcons and Jets coming to town to finish out the season.

[BigDingus]

On 12/30/2021 at 7:40 AM, DCOrange said:

Safety: Jordan Poyer is #1 on the first team. Barnwell says “Poyer has been an eraser in the secondary. When teams have been brave enough to throw in his direction, the result has been a downright depressing passer rating of 3.6. He has five picks and nine passes defensed while allowing 3.1 yards per target and continuing to contribute as a run defender. The Bills rank second in the league in defensive DVOA, and with cornerback Tre'Davious White out for the season, Poyer's partnership with Micah Hyde has kept the team afloat on that side of the ball.”

 

Snubbed for Pro Bowl but making first team All Pro? What sweet, poetic justice that would be! 

 

Bet his wife would make the irony of that pretty loud & clear on Twitter too 😂

[Joe Ferguson]

Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are doing a tremendous job right now. Why would you ruin the defensive chemistry by getting a new guy?

[starrymessenger]

9 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What hot streak?  A half vs. TB (failure in OT), not so great vs. Carolina and yep a great game vs. NE.

 

Look closer at the $'s and they are just okay imo.

I agree with you, sort of. I think they are a good base nickel D with really an outstanding secondary (esp when TW is good to go). A good nose and pass rushing DE would probably put them over the top as a complete and stellar top shelf unit. Frazier and McD are also pretty good at scheming, disguising coverages, play calling on that side of the ball etc… What it comes down to imo is how they perform now that crunch time has arrived and with it consistently superior opposition, including the opposition that they are likely going to face against which they do not match up especially well, and that they have not been built to defeat. I actually have a lot of faith in McD and Frazier getting them ready and think they have it in them  so I believe that they are capable of coming up big now that they will have to. If they can do that I will unreservedly conclude that they are really very good. But I haven’t seen it yet, at least not entirely to my satisfaction, and so the jury is still out and the final grade has yet to be assigned.