Bills 1 seed Scenario - Seems slightly more likely than 0.2%

[ehfeuh57]

 

I played around with potential week 17 and 18 results until I had the Bills at the 1 seed

I excluded using any Ties

[Process]

Bengals over Chiefs

Broncos over Chiefs

Dolphins over Titans

Texans over Titans

Browns over Bengals

 

In addition to us winning out

 

So 0%

[Scott7975]

Its not going to happen. I will say that I much prefer this thread than the threads of the past where we try to figure out the 10 games we need teams to lose after we win our last 7 in a row just to get a WC.

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

Bengals over Chiefs

Broncos over Chiefs

Dolphins over Titans

Texans over Titans

Browns over Bengals

 

In addition to us winning out

 

So 0%

also Raiders over Colts.

[Motorin']

It would have been much more interesting if the Chiefs and Titans had lost last week. 

 

Chargers and 9ers both blew it. 

[eSJayDee]

Look at it this way...

You've got 7 games that have to fall one way.  If there's a 50-50 chance of each outcome that's 1 in 128 or slightly <1%.  If you include the Raiders over Colts too, that 1 in 256 or about 0.4%.

With the exception of our 2 games, you want the team to win that is presumably weaker & therefore should have < at 50% chance of winning.  In this case, 0.2% seems roughly right depending on where you set those probabilities.

[ganesh]

Reasons why our losses to Titans, Jaguars,  Home to Patriots and the Bucs hurt us so much.   We had a chance to put away all those games in regulation and missed it.  Otherwise we are in the driver seat with a 13-2 record...good 2 games ahead of the Chiefs...the road to the SB would have been through WNY

[billsbackto81]

2 hours ago, DrDare said:

 

I played around with potential week 17 and 18 results until I had the Bills at the 1 seed

I excluded using any Ties

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

Reasons why our losses to Titans, Jaguars,  Home to Patriots and the Bucs hurt us so much.   We had a chance to put away all those games in regulation and missed it.  Otherwise we are in the driver seat with a 13-2 record...good 2 games ahead of the Chiefs...the road to the SB would have been through WNY

Eh, I could argue the Bills have played their best on the road this year.

wins at KC, NE, and the second half of the Bucs game. 
For me the only positive for the one seed for this Bills team is the bye week to get some rest.

[TBBills]

Slightly like .21%?

[strive_for_five_guy]

5 hours ago, DrDare said:

 

I played around with potential week 17 and 18 results until I had the Bills at the 1 seed

I excluded using any Ties

What’s the probability you are giving it?

[Greg S]

Bills will most likely be the #3 or #4 seed. 

[eball]

The 1 and 2 seeds are pretty much pipe dreams at this point.  The question is who do we want to face in WC weekend?  I think everyone is still recovering from the Colts beat down but that goes two ways…do we want the Pats*** again?  I don’t really care; once the playoffs start you play who’s in front of you without fear.  I’ll tell you this; there is NO team out there thinking they “want” to play Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

 

[Whites Bay]

They're the #4 seed right now with a fairly soft schedule in front of them.  Realistically, the best they're going to get is the #3 seed, which I think requires the Bengals losing to the Chiefs.  If the best they're going to do is the #3 seed...great!  Go for it!  If nothing else, it would be bragging rights.

 

Given where the team was about 4 weeks ago (and with the fan base and this board throwing itself off the closest freeway overpass), I'd be f-ing THRILLED with the #3 seed.

[All_Pro_Bills]

1 hour ago, Whites Bay said:

They're the #4 seed right now with a fairly soft schedule in front of them.  Realistically, the best they're going to get is the #3 seed, which I think requires the Bengals losing to the Chiefs.  If the best they're going to do is the #3 seed...great!  Go for it!  If nothing else, it would be bragging rights.

 

Given where the team was about 4 weeks ago (and with the fan base and this board throwing itself off the closest freeway overpass), I'd be f-ing THRILLED with the #3 seed.

It would be a shock if the Bills didn't finish at 11-6 if they show the performance and effort of Sunday's big win in the final 2 games.  If the idea is to avoid the Colts in the Wild Card round then moving up to the 3rd seed seems necessary given the Colts schedule the last 2 weeks.  Raiders at home, Jags on the road.  Can't make a good case they'd lose either.  In week 17 the Bills need to take care of business with Atlanta but there are several important and competitive match ups that you can make a rational case for going either way.

 

Chiefs/Bengals

Dolphins/Titans

Rams/Ravens

Broncos/Chargers

Browns/Steelers

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

9 hours ago, Process said:

Bengals over Chiefs

Broncos over Chiefs

Dolphins over Titans

Texans over Titans

Browns over Bengals

 

In addition to us winning out

 

So 0%

I could see the first 3 scenarios happening. We’d need the football gods for the final 2

[JohnNord]

3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I could see the first 3 scenarios happening. We’d need the football gods for the final 2

The toughest one would be Houston over Tennessee.  I could see actually see Cleveland beating Cincy

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, ganesh said:

Reasons why our losses to Titans, Jaguars,  Home to Patriots and the Bucs hurt us so much.   We had a chance to put away all those games in regulation and missed it.  Otherwise we are in the driver seat with a 13-2 record...good 2 games ahead of the Chiefs...the road to the SB would have been through WNY

Our 2 worst loses were to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.  Absolutely no excuse for either of those 2 debacles. If we beat up on the Falcons and Jest, we'll probably have the #1 point differential in the NFL.  I'll take the AFCE and 11-6 considering our wierd loses.

[Process]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I could see the first 3 scenarios happening. We’d need the football gods for the final 2

Browns over Bengals is way more likely than broncos over chiefs, imo

[Taro Nimbus]

If the Bills would have won a few of those heartbreakers (Titans, Jags, Bucs) they would be firmly in the first seed.   Highest we can get realistically would be 3 seed.