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Bills at Patriots: Predict the Score


Giuseppe Tognarelli

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BUF 13

NE 24

 

I think there's a lot running against the Bills in this game, and unless there is any significant change on the Covid front, I would consider a win to be one of the very most impressive of the McDermott regime. I hope to death I'm wrong about this, but I envision:

 

  • The NE defensive scheme wreaking havoc on the Bills' offensive line, with the rookie Brown at left tackle and several other positions shifted like last week
  • Allen committing a couple of turnovers due to the necessitation of hero mode, which will lead to NE points despite a lackluster NE offensive effort

 

To beat NE, you have to play almost perfectly, and I have a hard time envisioning the Bills doing that with the OL situation being what it is.

 

Of course, the Beasley absence/Covid distraction that we all thought would come at some point is here at the worst of times, and I think this is also at least a mild factor to consider.

 

Other things potentially going against the Bills:

  • Patriots/Belichick coming off of a loss
  • Belichick mad about McDermott not crediting him after MNF game
  • I can't remember the last time the Bills won a big swing game like this, when a win vs. a loss makes such a massive difference to the team's prospects
  • The Bills have struggled mightily in Sunday afternoon games broadcasted to a large, non-regional audience, going 1-6 since 2019 (see below)*
  • Blue pants are still a possibility as of this writing, although they did wear them last year in the big win at NE

 

*Here is how the Bills have fared since 2019 in Sunday afternoon games broadcasted to large, non-regional audiences:

 

2021, Week 14: @ TB, L

2021, Week 1: PIT, L
2020, Week 10: @ ARI, L
2020, Week 4: @ LV, W

2019, Week 14: BAL, L

2019, Week 8: PHI, L
2019, Week 4: NE, L

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Thoughtful analysis, OP.

 

I don't think the Bills have to play close to perfectly, though.  For either team, an early lead is key to try to make the game favorable for their style of play. If the Pats get an early lead, they can do what they did last time - pound the ball, try to keep the Bills O off the field, and play sound D.

 

If the Bills get an early lead, it forces the Pats to rely more on the overrated rookie game manager with the weak arm.

 

Bills 34

Patriots 15

 

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this isnt the tom brady patriots. they don't have to play perfect. quite the contrary, NE has to play perfect. 
not sure what a TV broadcast has to do with anything. 

blue pants there might be something to that.... 

our O line is going to get abused by matt judon and barmore... if only there were plays that would beat the blitz and discourage it... there arent any in dabolls bag of tricks, so.. you're probably right about taking an L...  

If mcdermott walks the talk... they should win. if not, well.... 10-7 will get it done most likely.. but we'd be playing them a third time. 

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13 minutes ago, teef said:

the list of things potentially going against the bills my be the dumbest piece of ***** i've seen around here.

 

cakewalk you weak minded *****!

Belichick's record off of losses has been widely discussed, he's known to use bulletin board material, it's true that the Bills have sucked in swing games, the record in national windows has been abysmal, and our record in blue pants is abysmal... all legitimate stuff, as dumb as it may seem.

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Assuming no major COVID news/swings and decent weather, I like the Bills in this contest.  The second half of the Tampa game, and most of the Carolina game, showed that our offense can get rolling against a top-tier defense.  Why do we think the Pats are any different?  So a key to my thinking is that the Bills at some point will start rolling and scoring TDs.  And we have the sort of defense to hold them in check.  They don't have the sort of offense to score a lot of points quickly.  Given the above, I'm thinking something like 30-17 or 30-21 Bills.

Edited by TheWei44
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