Scott7975 Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said: I'd rather go for & get 2 yards then go against Rodgers or Pitt on the road, when that game Pitt had all the momentum. If Lamar can't get two yards, I'd be surprised. Didn't Lamar not get 2 the week before? or was that Huntley too? 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: In 14 years he has had 11 winning seasons, 2 .500 seasons and 1 losing season. There is only one better coach than Harbaugh in the entire league for me and he is in our division. Harbaugh is the only guy I'd trade for McDermott for. All very fair. I won't argue. Im just not there yet. I want to see the rest of this year and next. I was a big McD fan and I am still a fan but he has been losing me this year with some of his decisions. Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: The two point conversion success rate is 49.6 percent right now. Winning in OT is a 45/45 proposition, with about a 10 percent chance of a tie. So ... basically the same. Eh - i'd probably do it against GB. I might also call something a bit trickier than a sprint out pass Quote
mannc Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: 95% the game is tied, vs 50% the game is lost. In OT you get a full set of downs (at least 1 series). According to your math, Harbaugh made the right call... Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 44 minutes ago, mannc said: According to your math, Harbaugh made the right call... No. 4 downs for a winning score Beats 1. Quote
FilthyBeast Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 Harbaugh is a proven SB winning head coach and gets the benefit of the doubt. He also knows he's playing with house money this year because Jackson is still under rookie contract and they are missing half their roster to IR right now. This is why I'd have more respect for McDermott if he had more balls and it's no coincidence this team has floundered since the Titans game and the failed 4th down in that game that probably would have won it. He has completely went into a shell and essentially told this team he doesn't trust them anymore. Quote
mannc Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: No. 4 downs for a winning score Beats 1. Come on, WEO. A 50% chance of winning the game on one play is better than a 95% chance of tying it, following by an OT in which your chance of winning is no better than 50% right? That would mean the kick followed by OT decision would result in a win 47.5% of the time, vs. 50% chance of winning by going for the two point conversion. No matter how many "downs" you get, your chance of winning in OT isn't above than 50% right? Quote
GunnerBill Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, mannc said: Come on, WEO. A 50% chance of winning the game on one play is better than a 95% chance of tying it, following by an OT in which your chance of winning is no better than 50% right? That would mean the kick followed by OT decision would result in a win 47.5% of the time, vs. 50% chance of winning by going for the two point conversion. No matter how many "downs" you get, your chance of winning in OT isn't above than 50% right? In overtime against #12 if he wins the toss its over. The one thing I'd say here is there was enough time left in regulation that even if the Ravens make the 2 pointer and go ahead I think #12 gets the Pack in FG range. Now their FG units have been dodgy this year but IMO they would have at least got a chance to kick for the win regardless. Quote
What a Tuel Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, mannc said: Come on, WEO. A 50% chance of winning the game on one play is better than a 95% chance of tying it, following by an OT in which your chance of winning is no better than 50% right? That would mean the kick followed by OT decision would result in a win 47.5% of the time, vs. 50% chance of winning by going for the two point conversion. No matter how many "downs" you get, your chance of winning in OT isn't above than 50% right? Where does the 50% chance of winning with the 2pt conversion come into play? Is it only considering game winning 2pt conversions? How many of those have there actually been? What teams? Home/away? There is just too many factors. If I were Harbaugh, I'd argue more that he thought his team could win it there rather than relying on some stat that takes into account the panthers going for 2 against the bills bc they dont have a kicker. How does it even relate? Quote
mannc Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, What a Tuel said: Where does the 50% chance of winning with the 2pt conversion come into play? Is it only considering game winning 2pt conversions? How many of those have there actually been? What teams? Home/away? There is just too many factors. If I were Harbaugh, I'd argue more that he thought his team could win it there rather than relying on some stat that takes into account the panthers going for 2 against the bills bc they dont have a kicker. How does it even relate? I was just using WEO’s numbers…I don’t know what the actual chances are. 12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: In overtime against #12 if he wins the toss its over. The one thing I'd say here is there was enough time left in regulation that even if the Ravens make the 2 pointer and go ahead I think #12 gets the Pack in FG range. Now their FG units have been dodgy this year but IMO they would have at least got a chance to kick for the win regardless. This is true, but a Pack FG wins the game if you tie it with a one-point conversion or succeed on a two-point try. Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, mannc said: Come on, WEO. A 50% chance of winning the game on one play is better than a 95% chance of tying it, following by an OT in which your chance of winning is no better than 50% right? That would mean the kick followed by OT decision would result in a win 47.5% of the time, vs. 50% chance of winning by going for the two point conversion. No matter how many "downs" you get, your chance of winning in OT isn't above than 50% right? Still no. I reasonably assumed based on the momentum of the 4th Q, that the odds of Baltimore winning in OT were better than 50%. 1 Quote
GunnerBill Posted December 21, 2021 Posted December 21, 2021 32 minutes ago, mannc said: This is true, but a Pack FG wins the game if you tie it with a one-point conversion or succeed on a two-point try. Exactly. My point was I think that decision made little difference. I can see more of an argument against Pitt for tying it up and then stopping the corpse of big Ben. But this past Sunday? You absolutely go for 2 though you probably lose in any event, whether you make it or not. Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 22, 2021 Posted December 22, 2021 14 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Exactly. My point was I think that decision made little difference. I can see more of an argument against Pitt for tying it up and then stopping the corpse of big Ben. But this past Sunday? You absolutely go for 2 though you probably lose in any event, whether you make it or not. It’s really not a given the Packers score a FG in the time left. They managed 3 points on 2 previous drives. Ravens D was solid down the stretch 1 Quote
dave mcbride Posted December 22, 2021 Posted December 22, 2021 This is somewhat related and interesting: https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/can-an-elite-madden-player-out-perform-an-nfl-coach Quote
wppete Posted December 22, 2021 Posted December 22, 2021 The Harbaugh's are so unlikeable. Seem like bad guys. Quote
Bing Bong Posted December 23, 2021 Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 6:25 PM, Mr. WEO said: Tie the game and get at least another series in OT, instead of gambling the game away on a single play that 50/50 losses the game. What's the difference? The single greatest advantage in OT is literally a coin flip Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 23, 2021 Posted December 23, 2021 45 minutes ago, FormerlyPT5P said: What's the difference? The single greatest advantage in OT is literally a coin flip only if you score a TD first Quote
LabattBlue Posted December 23, 2021 Author Posted December 23, 2021 I wonder how the ~65% would feel if it was McD who went for the win instead of kicking the XP, and missed the two point conversion twice? Quote
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