Week 16: Bills at Pats - DISCUSSION

[Big Turk]

I find it interesting to hear analysts bad mouthing the Bills run defense lately going into this game saying we are allowing 170 YPG over the last 3 games, but failing to note that New England has allowed an NFL worst 198.3 YPG over that same timespan.  Including almost 300 yards to a Tennessee team with no offensive weapons and no Derrick Henry rushing the ball.

 

Bills should be able to run the ball a little bit at least against NE, especially if they attack the edges like they have against TB and Carolina.

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The 4 teams you listed can all run the ball and pass protect.  They have NFL worthy OLs.  We do not.  We NEED to have a TE2 to help block (which we saw this past week).  Not having one hurts.  Sweeney is not an nfl player imo.  
 

 

spot on regarding Poyer.  

Sure but those seem like OL problems. Why not go get OL fixed rather than try to pay a TE2?  I think Sweeney is growing into an average TE2 and will bounce around for a while. 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Sure but those seem like OL problems. Why not go get OL fixed rather than try to pay a TE2?  I think Sweeney is growing into an average TE2 and will bounce around for a while. 

because that was the OL that they decided was good enough.  Most of us knew this would happen.  
 

what have you seen from Sweeney this season that would suggest he is growing into an average TE?  To me, an average TE is a borderline starter.  I have seen literally nothing from Sweeney this season.  He hasn’t been effective blocking or receiving. He was better as a rookie

[Patrick Duffy]

27 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Plenty of teams only have one TE. Who is KCs TE2? tenn TE2? Ariz TE2? Dal TE2? So many good teams don’t invest there.  What are you gonna pay this TE2?  I don’t want to pay more than vet minimum and for vet

min you’re getting a Sweeney type player.

I just want to say, whoever the TE2 is on everyone of the teams you listed, I feel really comfortable saying each of them can offer more than what Sweeney does.

[34-78-83]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I find it interesting to hear analysts bad mouthing the Bills run defense lately going into this game saying we are allowing 170 YPG over the last 3 games, but failing to note that New England has allowed an NFL worst 198.3 YPG over that same timespan.  Including almost 300 yards to a Tennessee team with no offensive weapons and no Derrick Henry rushing the ball.

 

Bills should be able to run the ball a little bit at least against NE, especially if they attack the edges like they have against TB and Carolina.

It's just more lazy reporting. NE ran 46 times and passed 3. Of course there would be a lot of yards gained on 46 carries.

 

Now the Colts laid it on us for real.

[Patrick Duffy]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The 4 teams you listed can all run the ball and pass protect.  They have NFL worthy OLs.  We do not.  We NEED to have a TE2 to help block (which we saw this past week).  Not having one hurts.  Sweeney is not an nfl player imo.  
 

 

spot on regarding Poyer.  

Agree 100%. He is so bad I feel better with Gilliam on the field by far

[YattaOkasan]

Final thoughts on TE2. I’m happy to upgrade any position. They tried this season but kept Sweeney over hollister. I think $$ plays into it.  Sweeney is still on his rookie deal. I think he stays around this year.
 

By definition an average TE2 is not a borderline starter.  That would be an above average TE2. If that’s what you want then fine but you’ll probably pay or draft for it. I agree blocking is a problem overall but I would like to spend resources on OL to resolves those problems. If you tell me we find a replacement for Sweeney on day 3 or as UDFA? Cool. If you tell me we sign someone for north of a million AAV then I’m fine with Sweeney. 

[Rocky Landing]

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The 4 teams you listed can all run the ball and pass protect.  They have NFL worthy OLs.  We do not.  We NEED to have a TE2 to help block (which we saw this past week).  Not having one hurts.  Sweeney is not an nfl player imo.  
 

 

spot on regarding Poyer.  

This discussion makes me wonder about Moss. In '20, Moss was the best RB in pass pro in the league. Now, he's benched. What gives? I feel confident in saying that Motor has surpassed him as the feature back, but the prognostications (of which I agreed) that Moss would see the field more than Motor, specifically for his pass pro, as well as his proficiency as a receiver/RB, have been completely wrong.

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Rocky Landing

[buffalonian]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

My worry is just playing in "Fix-boro." They built Gillette Stadium with all kinds of little hacks to favor the Patriots. I'm sure there are some that no one outside the inner circle of the Patriots know about.

Hopefully Daboll has this covered.  

[SF Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Are they going to roll with 6 olinemen plus a tight end blocking like last time? They won’t really be a threat to pass with all those injuries out of that formation.  I don’t want to jinx it but I think the pats are in a lot of trouble

If we can jump to a decent early lead and they have to play catch up by predominantly passing, then I would say they will be in lot of trouble. 

[LABILLBACKER]

23 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Are they going to roll with 6 olinemen plus a tight end blocking like last time? They won’t really be a threat to pass with all those injuries out of that formation.  I don’t want to jinx it but I think the pats are in a lot of trouble

Rarely does Belichick do the same thing twice in a row. There won't be wind so he will definitely let Mac throw more. How much I don't know but the run game will be at least 70% of the plays. The main advantage we will probably have this time around is reasonable weather which will favor Josh and Bass.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

36 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

One receives the monoclonal antibody treatment at ER (often) so it may not have been due to symptoms, but to treatment.

oh good call! Let’s hope that is the case. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

This discussion makes me wonder about Moss. In '20, Moss was the best RB in pass pro in the league. Now, he's benched. What gives? I feel confident in saying that Motor has surpassed him as the feature back, but the prognostications (of which I agreed) that Moss would see the field more than Motor, specifically for his pass pro, as well as his proficiency as a receiver/RB, have been completely wrong.

 

 

 

I feel ya.  I think the fact that they had Breida active this week (again after contributing nothing but negative plays 2 weeks in a row) and moss inactive is either a huge wake up call to moss to get it together for the playoffs or will lead to a pink slip.  He’s a beast in pass pro and solid as a receiver, but he too, drops easy passes  and I don’t really trust him in any position except pass pro.  
 
his skill set doesn’t fit the O and I hope this is the last year he’s a bill.  I’m sure he feels the same way.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Rarely does Belichick do the same thing twice in a row. There won't be wind so he will definitely let Mac throw more. How much I don't know but the run game will be at least 70% of the plays. The main advantage we will probably have this time around is reasonable weather which will favor Josh and Bass.

Oh for sure…but the run game won’t be nearly as effective if they try to reasonably mix in the passing game out of different formations.  I think his best chance may be doing the same thing twice in a row this time ironically with all those receiver injuries they have lol

8 minutes ago, SF Bills Fan said:

If we can jump to a decent early lead and they have to play catch up by predominantly passing, then I would say they will be in lot of trouble. 

Yea we did just about everything wrong to start the last game and still almost pulled it out…terrible fumble then gave up a huge rushing TD

[Kellyhero68]

1 hour ago, PolishDave said:

 

Which one of our current guys is equivalent to Bruce Smith? 😂

 

If we had a Bruce Smith on the team, I bet he would play more snaps than anyone else on that line.

We don't, that's the whole point. Groot has potential but a long way to go.

 

[nucci]

56 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I think NE is going to attack with jet motion - be it jonnu smith or meyers or whomever is healthy at WR.  They like to run tricky pass plays out of these too.  

Smith is a slow TE and plays behind Henry

[SF Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Oh for sure…but the run game won’t be nearly as effective if they try to reasonably mix in the passing game out of different formations.  I think his best chance may be doing the same thing twice in a row this time ironically with all those receiver injuries they have lol

Yea we did just about everything wrong to start the last game and still almost pulled it out…terrible fumble then gave up a huge rushing TD

Yep- they played the best game they could and we played poorly and still should have won. This time around with some different variables- better weather (favor us), no turnovers (neutral- don't forget that Pats punt fumble), un-biased officiating (favor us), injuries (appear to favor us- for now), home field for Pats (slightly in their favor). I like our chances much better. 

 

Who knows on the officiating, but things have been so bad for us that sooner or later that has to change. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Please don't continue the myth that the Chiefs were bad when we beat them.  They weren't.  They won the game before and after 31 points and 42 points.

 

I sit corrected.  Fair point.

13 minutes ago, nucci said:

Smith is a slow TE and plays behind Henry

 

Jonnu Smith made a straight-up circus catch on the first of Mac Jones 3 passes against us.

[Rocky Landing]

Interesting game stat: In last week's loss to the Colts, Mac & Cheese threw the ball 45 times, for a pedestrian 74.2 rating, 53.4 QBR. In their previous game vs. the Bills, he threw the ball a grand total of three times. Three times! Which, IMO, removes all context to the QB rating/QBR stats. 

 

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

5 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Interesting game stat: In last week's loss to the Colts, Mac & Cheese threw the ball 45 times, for a pedestrian 74.2 rating, 53.4 QBR. In their previous game vs. the Bills, he threw the ball a grand total of three times. Three times! Which, IMO, removes all context to the QB rating/QBR stats. 

 

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.

My eyeball test tells me he's not as talented as average guys like Carr and Garrappolo. I'd classify him as a weaker armed version of Baker Mayfield.