Week 16: Bills at Pats - DISCUSSION

[CNYfan]

45 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

To piggy back on this, I think McDermott finds this to be just as effective as sacks. Especially when you play teams who get the ball out in 2 seconds, getting pressure and having length can get the job done. 
 

For example, the 4th down play vs the Panthers where Hughes tips the pass and hits Newtons arm.
 

This play doesn’t go down as a sack, but the result effectively was the same.  

Hughes has been quiet this year, so far, but was a monster in the playoffs last season.   

I am hoping he starts to turn it up a bit as we hit this big, big stretch of games.

[muppy]

I have an acquaintance with season tickets who wrote this and I thought it was a very valuable and worthy to share here #wilcoam VERY Thoughtful post. m

 

Quote

The Bills 8-6 season has come down more to how we execute in the red zone, in the 4Q, morsoe this season than any recent one I can recall, as 4 of our 6 losses would have been wins, if the team just completes one more red zone TD pass, or can run just one more in

The good news is we converted 4 times last week against a pretty darn good secondary, in fact one of the very best in the NFL this season, and that's coming off one incredible offensive show in the 2nd half of the game b4 that against one of the best D units in the league

So maybe we turned a corner?

Clearly we have the offensive talent and are quite capable of both competing with and beating the Pats with the same patchwork OL as we had last week, if as a unit we can overcome the holding and silly 5 yard penalties, if Josh can throw away balls and avoid sacks, if he can make great decisions, if we can run the ball like the way we did in the last 6Q's, but specifically it has to all click in the red zone, we'll need to convert TD's in order to beat the Pats

And our D has to avoid giving up big run plays and taking penalties, two things that seems to have become an occasional issue morseo in the 2nd half of the season than say in the first half, but if it does rear it's ugly head, well our O has to bail them out by scoring points, honestly our D has been elite in all but one game and two halfs this year, it's hands down the best overall unit we've seen since 2014, even without Tre, they're playing at a high high level, they have the goods to limit the Pats, it's our O that is more inconsistent going into the must have win game of the 2021 season

jc

 

[Patrick Duffy]

27 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

To be fair, their pass defense isn’t predicated on that (sack numbers). It’s predicated on pre-snap disguise, pressure and coverage to force incompletions or bad throws.

Well I mean also to be fair, they are still trying to get to the QB to get a sack as much as they can. They are trying to get to the QB with everything they got and sack him or get the ball out every snap. They just don't get there nearly enough resulting in very low sack numbers.

 

I think you would agree with me here....I mean I agree with what you said, I just don't think that's why they aren't getting sacks.

[Stank_Nasty]

Oh god are we sugar coating the fact we can’t ever take down the qb when we get there again? Pressures right?…. Ya ok. 
 

How about we just find the freaking ability to FINISH once you’ve got hands on the qb. Good lord people. Pressures are a good thing but let’s not use them just to pretend they don’t have an issue with getting qb’s to the ground. There’s plenty of times where the “pressure” wasn’t enough and if whomever got hands on the QB woulda finished, it woulda made a difference. 

[Hebert19]

We need to start fast and overwhelm them early like the colts did. Unfortunately we rarely start fast which has been our issue this year. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

Sacks can be overrated.

 

Remember how the Dolphins were hurt by protecting Dan Marino’s sack record (most pass attempts in a row without getting sacked)?

I remember reading an article about Schwartz when he was here about the debate of the value of looking at pass rush success as sacks vs pressures

 

I tend to be in the camp that sacks are great but the truest measure is pressures. Sacks can be flukey. Pressures mean that a QB is consistently making a choice quicker than they like. Sure, they sometimes make a big play but those pressures add up and lead to dump offs at best, a QB often not throwing their best ball, and sometimes them putting it up in the air for an INT.

 

 

 

 

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Or maybe sign an actual decent pass rusher who can sack the QB…. Last off-season was a good opportunity to do so, they opted for bringing everyone back and some draft picks. Though the pass rush is improved. 

 

No matter how this season plays out Beane better focus on improving the OL. I would love to see Josh as the Bills QB with better pass protection and a solid running game. I think the offense would be unstoppable with a better OL. Our QB is that good IMHO.

[Coffeesforclosers]

13 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

No matter how this season plays out Beane better focus on improving the OL. I would love to see Josh as the Bills QB with better pass protection and a solid running game. I think the offense would be unstoppable with a better OL. Our QB is that good IMHO.

 

Yes. Agreed completely. Bring in a real OL coach, get him the talent he needs, and get Josh the support he deserves.  

 

Josh will run through walls if he's asked, but I want to watch him QB for another 10 years.  If he ends up a broken down shell like Cam, that's unforgivable.

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

Hughes has been quiet this year, so far, but was a monster in the playoffs last season.   

I am hoping he starts to turn it up a bit as we hit this big, big stretch of games.

Happens with old guys sometimes. Hopefully he’s been saving what he has left in the tank for the final stretch/playoffs.

[Stank_Nasty]

38 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Or maybe sign an actual decent pass rusher who can sack the QB…. Last off-season was a good opportunity to do so, they opted for bringing everyone back and some draft picks. Though the pass rush is improved. 

i could go for a 50 page thread about how hughes only has 1.5 sacks but its not important because he's had 3.2 million pressures this year. 

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

Hughes has been quiet this year, so far, but was a monster in the playoffs last season.   

I am hoping he starts to turn it up a bit as we hit this big, big stretch of games.

i'll give him the playoffs. in 19 he had 3 sacks during the meltdown game that never get talked about because of the outcome

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

What’s the topic?

 

oh yeah 

 

***** the Cheating Patriots and their dimple chinned Brady wannabe 

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

I said this in the pats/colts thread and i'll say it again. I think Mac Jones resting douche face is way worse than Eli Mannnings ever was. He's tough for me to stomach.

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i could go for a 50 page thread about how hughes only has 1.5 sacks but its not important because he's had 3.2 million pressures this year. 

i'll give him the playoffs. in 19 he had 3 sacks during the meltdown game that never get talked about because of the outcome

Yeah and also you'll hear some say "the defense isn't about sacks, it's about pressure making QB force throws too quick and make mistakes". It's kinda comes off as if when rushing a QB they aren't trying to get sacks, only get pressure. That's why sack numbers are low. It's planned like that.

 

Both are good but sack #s could come up a little.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, stevewin said:

Have mods considered a separate thread for Cheater fans to post to like was done for last game?  I'm all for a Cheater-fan-free Bills pre-game thread 

 

Separate thread for news at least, so we can find it

[RichRiderBills]

Cheats supposedly miffed at McD's post game comments. Uh oh... now Pats are "mad".

 

Seriously, what an entitled and arrogant fan base and media. 

 

It's at the point now where Pats claims of disrespect and bulletin board material should actually be bulletin board material for us. 

 

Except for the other fact....that bulletin board material is a bull#### concept. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 hours ago, Success said:

 

You should really put together a summary of when wins really count & when they don't, and when fans should feel good about them & when they're meaningless.

 

It's all quite hard to keep up with.  I know that personally, I felt good about beating the Chiefs, who are the #1 seed in the AFC right now.  But apparently, that was a gimme.

 

 

Apparently, Miami counts as a close loss to a good team when the Pats play them, but they're a bad team and smoking them 2x doesn't count when the Bills play

 

Also it matters that the Chiefs were "bad" when we played them, but doesn't matter that the Titans were without Henry, Brown and Jones when the Pats beat them, etc.

 

So for a bit of an objective measure, here's the current seeding

 

 

Interesting point is that the Strength of Schedule for the Bills and Pats wins are almost identical (0.48 vs 0.479) and the Strength of Victory is higher for the Bills (0.432 vs 0.413). 

Now I don't know how these things are calculated or what they do or don't take into account, but it's probably a bit more objective than "we lost close games to Miami but it doesn't matter you blew them out".

 

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

No matter how this season plays out Beane better focus on improving the OL. I would love to see Josh as the Bills QB with better pass protection and a solid running game. I think the offense would be unstoppable with a better OL. Our QB is that good IMHO.

 

To be fair, the regression of Dawkins and Williams were unexpected. We did draft guys here. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

7 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

To be fair, the regression of Dawkins and Williams were unexpected. We did draft guys here. 

 

That is true, but at IOL where we were weak and couldn't run last year, Beane was evidently counting on Ford and on Feliciano to both take steps forward, and his "plan B if they don't" was weak (oft-injured Lamp and not-good-enough-for-the-Titans Douglas).  It was a Plan where You Lose Your Hat - a Bad Plan

[strive_for_five_guy]

40 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Apparently, Miami counts as a close loss to a good team when the Pats play them, but they're a bad team and smoking them 2x doesn't count when the Bills play

 

Also it matters that the Chiefs were "bad" when we played them, but doesn't matter that the Titans were without Henry, Brown and Jones when the Pats beat them, etc.

 

So for a bit of an objective measure, here's the current seeding

 

 

Interesting point is that the Strength of Schedule for the Bills and Pats wins are almost identical (0.48 vs 0.479) and the Strength of Victory is higher for the Bills (0.432 vs 0.413). 

Now I don't know how these things are calculated or what they do or don't take into account, but it's probably a bit more objective than "we lost close games to Miami but it doesn't matter you blew them out".

 

SOS and SOV are definitely objective, as they’re calculated based on winning %’s of all your opponents and the opponents you have beaten.  So to your point, more way more objective than the statement noted.

[Beerball]

58 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Cheats supposedly miffed at McD's post game comments. Uh oh... now Pats are "mad".

 

Seriously, what an entitled and arrogant fan base and media. 

 

It's at the point now where Pats claims of disrespect and bulletin board material should actually be bulletin board material for us. 

 

Except for the other fact....that bulletin board material is a bull#### concept. 

What isn't a bullchit concept is that Belichick lives in McDermott's head.