Playoff picture

[MPL]

Cleveland is a team to watch and root against. I played around with a lot of scenarios in the ESPN playoff machine and if Buffalo and Cleveland both finish 10-7, Cleveland gets in and we do not. That's the only scenario I've been able to find where 10-7 doesn't get Buffalo in. But, hopefully we just win out and finish 11-6. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by MPL

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Success said:

I'd still be shocked if we don't make the playoffs. All of the teams in the WC race have tough schedules coming up, and they all basically play each other multiple times.

 

The game I'm most interested in is Colts/Pats. That's a win-win for the Bills. Either NE puts a 7th loss on Indy, or Indy sets it up so we still have a shot at the division the following week (if we take care of business against the Panthers).

 

Pats fans online were pretty universal in celebrating their big division win yesterday. I don't think they were doing the math.

 

Yea I would’ve put us as the division favorite if we didn’t get robbed last night that’s why that one hurt so much 

[Matt_In_NH]

I believe this team can make a run if they get in.   I don't care where they go, I think they could win.   I think the Bills would not be a welcome opponent in many teams eyes.  

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

a weird thing I noticed messing with the playoff machine. If we win next week and so does cleveland and cincinatti.

 

Of course you'd think we want baltimore to lose, but if they win we are the 7th seed. If they lose we are out of a playoff spot for now. 

 

I think it's still better in the long run if they lose, but three way tiebeakers could be bad for us it seems.

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

a weird thing I noticed messing with the playoff machine. If we win next week and so does cleveland and cincinatti.

 

Of course you'd think we want baltimore to lose, but if they win we are the 7th seed. If they lose we are out of a playoff spot for now. 

 

I think it's still better in the long run if they lose, but three way tiebeakers could be bad for us it seems.

 

That hinges on the NE/IND game.  

 

If that happens, and Indy wins, we are out of the playoffs come Monday morning.  However, that also sets up the game in Foxboro for the Division. 

[RichRiderBills]

I'm surprised the Bills are only 19% to win division. Basically if Pats lose to Colts it is on. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Hebert19 said:

I'm shocked we are still in 7 seed.  When I took a closer look Cleveland and Cincinnati both look like they will end up with the same or similar conference records...

 

We have a better SOV than both which is shocking.  Keep winning KC and Miami. Ha

 

So based on this we win 3 of 4 we should be good for 6 or 7 seed.  

 

Anything I'm missing?

Yes you are missing the fact that winning is the biggest problem for this team now. 

[RichRiderBills]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

That hinges on the NE/IND game.  

 

If that happens, and Indy wins, we are out of the playoffs come Monday morning.  However, that also sets up the game in Foxboro for the Division. 

 

The later games also play, as those teams play themselves. We go 3-1 basically 90 percent chance to make it. 

[May Day 10]

1 hour ago, Wo-Bah said:

I don't know if I want this Bills team in the playoffs.  It doesn't seem like they're built for a deep run.

 

Put yourself as a fan of one of the division winners' shoes (assuming the Bills dont run the table and grab the Division)

 

Would you want Buffalo to be that first round opponent as opposed to Chargers, Colts, Browns, Bengals, Denver, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Vegas, Miami?  

 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Wo-Bah said:

I don't know if I want this Bills team in the playoffs.  It doesn't seem like they're built for a deep run.

 

What AFC teams do you think are?

 

Everyone in this conference is as flawed as us.   Some are more complete, but Josh Allen is the equalizer there.  Look no further than our WC game vs Indy last year.  

 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by SCBills

[May Day 10]

Call me crazy, but I feel pretty confident about that New England game, provided Allen's health isnt a major issue.

[JerseyBills]

We'll be there in January and still capable of a run. 

I think we still have a shot at the division if we win out. 

But the way we play at home with all that energy from the fans, im fine that we'll be on the road. 

The AFC is wide open. No real powerhouses like in previous years. 

28 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

Call me crazy, but I feel pretty confident about that New England game, provided Allen's health isnt a major issue.

Same. Very confident.  

The weather in the 1st gm played right into their strengths and our weaknesses 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Chiefs can really help us out Thursday and then I guess either way with the colts Pats, at least one of them has to lose probably which is good,

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Chiefs can really help us out Thursday and then I guess either way with the colts Pats, at least one of them has to lose probably which is good,

 

Definitely want the Colts to win. Assuming the Bills win their own game which they should then BUF at NE is a battle for first place. I would like to see them win the division and get a home game on WC weekend.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Definitely want the Colts to win. Assuming the Bills win their own game which they should then BUF at NE is a battle for first place. I would like to see them win the division and get a home game on WC weekend.

I understand that thinking but either way it’s good for us. I’m not in the camp of believing the division is still in play here. Sorry. Just find a way to get in. I want as many outs as possible.

[Success]

I still want it all. The win over NE, the division title, the Super Bowl.  Not that it matters who we root for, but you have to want the Colts to win this week.  If we get swept by a Pats team w/ a rookie game manager QB, we don't deserve anything.

 

And it's all still there for the Bills.  Sending out good vibes for Allen's health.

 

[May Day 10]

There is a 6% swing with the Colts/Patriots game from 70% in with a Pats win to 64% with Colts.

 

That ups to 78% - 71% with a Bills' win vs Carolina.

 

You hate to assume things, but with a Colts win, and the Bills take care of business vs Atlanta, Carolina, and the Jets, they are 84% in.  If the Bills beat the Patriots there, we are attending a home playoff game.

[RichRiderBills]

8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I understand that thinking but either way it’s good for us. I’m not in the camp of believing the division is still in play here. Sorry. Just find a way to get in. I want as many outs as possible.

 

I still think it's in play. 

 

The 20% is deceptive because it is just on its own not taking into account we have to play Pats. 

 

We have 3/4 at home versus weak teams.

 

Pats have a rough schedule. They lose 3/4 we can even drop a game and win div. 

 

 

[Greg S]

14 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I understand that thinking but either way it’s good for us. I’m not in the camp of believing the division is still in play here. Sorry. Just find a way to get in. I want as many outs as possible.

 

It definitely is in play if the Colts and Bills win this weekend. I can understand anyone who doesn't have much faith in the Bills right now. These last two losses sucked and were tough to take. I do think there is a good chance the Colts win Saturday and a great chance the Bills win on Sunday.

[RiotAct]

3 hours ago, Process said:

No way our actual chance of making the playoffs is 65%. It is definitely higher.

actually that sounds about right.

 

The Bills have shown they’re capable of losing to mediocre / bad teams (Pittsburgh, Jax) and losing close hard-fought games.