Interesting new advanced stat metric with a “garbage time filter”

[dave mcbride]

Pretty interesting. As you gradually increase the importance of the “garbage time filter” for the Bills offense, it gets significantly worse (and Allen declines too). The defense doesn’t do so well either, although weirdly if you max out the GT filter it goes from being  bottom-half-of-the-league-defense with the filter at 2/3 to a top D. The other thing is that if you choose, say, the last 7-8 weeks with the garbage time filter maxed out, it has the Bills ranked 27th in offense. https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

 

I can’t say I understand it all, but it feels reasonably accurate given the Bills’ struggles in close games.

Edited December 11, 2021 by dave mcbride

[HamSandwhich]

Maybe because they’ve blown out teams and getting up by a certain amount = “garbage time”? 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, HamSandwhich said:

Maybe because they’ve blown out teams and getting up by a certain amount = “garbage time”? 

Presumably, and the offense has performed poorly in three of four close games (pitt, NE, Jax). The one where they produced was the Titans game, although even that one was punctuated by a bad failure on 4th down. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Stats shmats

 

 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Stats shmats

 

 

“Stats don’t lie”, until they do.  

[GoBills808]

What do the 0-30 presets along the garbage time WP filter refer to?

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What do the 0-30 presets along the garbage time WP filter refer to?

Trying to figure that out!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Pretty interesting. As you gradually increase the importance of the “garbage time filter” for the Bills offense, it gets significantly worse (and Allen declines too). The defense doesn’t do so well either, although weirdly if you max out the GT filter it goes from being  bottom-half-of-the-league-defense with the filter at 2/3 to a top D. The other thing is that if you choose, say, the last 7-8 weeks with the garbage time filter maxed out, it has the Bills ranked 27th in offense. https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

 

I can’t say I understand it all, but it feels reasonably accurate given the Bills’ struggles in close games.

 

How do they define "garbage time"?

 

The Steelers went into the half 23-0 and looking absolutely defeated.  They came out of the 3Q 29-7.  Does that mean the whole 2nd half of the game was "garbage time"?  They were in it with a chance to win it in a 1 score game at the end.

 

That's what I don't like about the use of the term "garbage time".  Another team gets a big lead and its all "garbage time points" until enough of them mount up.  Then it's a brilliant 4Q comeback.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How do they define "garbage time"?

 

The Steelers went into the half 23-0 and looking absolutely defeated.  They came out of the 3Q 29-7.  Does that mean the whole 2nd half of the game was "garbage time"?  They were in it with a chance to win it in a 1 score game at the end.

 

That's what I don't like about the use of the term "garbage time".  Another team gets a big lead and its all "garbage time points" until enough of them mount up.  Then it's a brilliant 4Q comeback.

It’s also punitive to teams like the Bills who played very well in a bunch of big wins. 

[Saint Doug]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

“Stats don’t lie”, until they do.  

Until another stat says they do. 

[Dopey]

I'd rather watch the games and trust my eyes 👀

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How do they define "garbage time"?

 

The Steelers went into the half 23-0 and looking absolutely defeated.  They came out of the 3Q 29-7.  Does that mean the whole 2nd half of the game was "garbage time"?  They were in it with a chance to win it in a 1 score game at the end.

 

That's what I don't like about the use of the term "garbage time".  Another team gets a big lead and its all "garbage time points" until enough of them mount up.  Then it's a brilliant 4Q comeback.

When it got to be 29-0 late in the 3rd qt, I almost went to bed. I figured the rest of the game was "garbage time". Glad I didn't.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How do they define "garbage time"?

 

The Steelers went into the half 23-0 and looking absolutely defeated.  They came out of the 3Q 29-7.  Does that mean the whole 2nd half of the game was "garbage time"?  They were in it with a chance to win it in a 1 score game at the end.

 

That's what I don't like about the use of the term "garbage time".  Another team gets a big lead and its all "garbage time points" until enough of them mount up.  Then it's a brilliant 4Q comeback.

Yeah, but that’s *extremely* rare. It happens once or twice a season. 

[WhoTom]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

How do they define "garbage time"?

 

I don't know how they define it, but I'd say it's when either team benches its starting QB, not because of injury or performance.

 

 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

Stats are for losers

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

I don't know how they define it, but I'd say it's when either team benches its starting QB, not because of injury or performance.

 

OK then, the Bills have played what, 1 quarter or so of that against the Colts?

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK then, the Bills have played what, 1 quarter or so of that against the Colts?

I think the filter would remove that game data for times when either teams’s QB was pulled

 

however, I doubt that’s how they definite garbage time. My guess would be that the aforementioned presets along the filter are the score differentials and as you approach 30 (ie a game where one team is winning by 30pts) it starts to max out

[NoSaint]

19 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Presumably, and the offense has performed poorly in three of four close games (pitt, NE, Jax). The one where they produced was the Titans game, although even that one was punctuated by a bad failure on 4th down. 

football outsiders had the bills as the most inconsistent in their history. 
 

if you take only our bad games and small portions of our blowout wins, it makes sense we would look bad.