McDermott's Biggest Mistake?

[JESSEFEFFER]

I have been in a bit of Bills news time warp since attending the Monday game as I flew out of Buffalo at 5:30AM the following morning and worked long hours at a company facility all week.  So, while maybe it was discussed in the GDT or post game conversation but as a main take-a-way from this game I do not know if as much was made of this as I think it deserves.  It's as big of a mistake as Wade Phillips' decision to kick a field goal for the lead, on first down at the 23 with 20 seconds on the clock.  

 

The Bills won the coin toss and DEFERRED as if nothing was going to be different about this game.  But  everyone knew it would be different and we knew it all week. 

 

Watching pregame warmups, kicks toward the scoreboard were driven short and to the right from even a modest distance of 40 yards.  Kicks toward the tunnel had a range of 65+ yards leaving me to wonder if we might witness a new NFL record FG.

 

A close game was reasonable to expect and close games get decided in the 4th quarter. With timeout usage, the two minute warning and clock stoppage for out-of-bounds in the last 5 minutes of the game, more plays from scrimmage usually occur in the 4th quarter than in any of the other three.

 

By deferring, Sean McDermott left the decision of whether the Bills would have the wind advantage in the 4th quarter in the hands of Bill Belichick. I 'd bet when the Bills deferred, Bill might have even laughed out loud knowing that everything the Bills might attempt to do in the 4th quarter of a normal game would now become either more difficult to even impossible.  I count this as one of Sean's biggest in game coaching blunders and right up there with Wade's.   

 

On to Tampa Bay, where giving your opponent the option to decide which direction to kickoff in the 3rd quarter is of little consequence.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

It's as big of a mistake as Wade Phillips' decision to kick a field goal for the lead, on first down at the 23 with 20 seconds on the clock.  

 

 

You know in all the years I never even knew that is what happened. Holy cow is that an all-time blunder. 

 

I could be wrong but I believe by deferring the first half, it gave the Bills the option to receive or kick off in the second half. McD's blunder would have been choosing to not defer again in the second half. Would have been better for the Bills to to not start either half with the ball. This takes away a possession potentially but gives them the wind in the fourth quarter. My only thinking is the wind was slowing down as the night went on and that maybe McDermott thought it would slow enough that it wouldn't be as big an issue. But that seems a bit far fetched because it was still whipping around 20mph in the 4th quarter. Down from 25 to 20 isn't much of an advantage. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

One thing I do have to give McDermott credit for is the inactivation of Stevenson and McKenzie. The Bills lone TD came off a Patriots blunder by their punt return team. McDermott correctly realized the conditions for returning punts were not favorable and better to not take any chances.

[boco357]

This team is obsessed with the short kickoffs(I always post about hating them in game day threads a bunch).  But why not this week when you got a fumble already try some short kickoffs and make them handle the ball again.  This week Bass just booted it out of the endzone.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 minute ago, boco357 said:

This team is obsessed with the short kickoffs(I always post about hating them in game day threads a bunch).  But why not this week when you got a fumble already try some short kickoffs and make them handle the ball again.  This week Bass just booted it out of the endzone.

 

Good point.  Sitting in section 228, it was noted among our group how odd it was that the Bills would kick short to the Saints in a dome but not even attempt that during a home game in cold and windy conditions.

[Solomon Grundy]

Signing Star Lotuleitei!!!

[BarleyNY]

14 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

It's as big of a mistake as Wade Phillips' decision to kick a field goal for the lead, on first down at the 23 with 20 seconds on the clock.  

 

 

I believe the strategy on this is that if there is a bad snap or if the kick is blocked back (doesn’t cross the LOS) and is recovered by the kicking team, then possession is maintained and there is time left - and downs left - to try the FG again.  I was at a Browns v Steelers game in Pittsburgh that went to OT and this came into play.  Browns blocked a Steelers FG attempt late in OT on 3rd down, Steelers recovered and successfully kicked the winner on the next play.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I believe the strategy on this is that if there is a bad snap or if the kick is blocked back (doesn’t cross the LOS) and is recovered by the kicking team, then possession is maintained and there is time left - and downs left - to try the FG again.  I was at a Browns v Steelers game in Pittsburgh that went to OT and this came into play.  Browns blocked a Steelers FG attempt late in OT on 3rd down, Steelers recovered and successfully kicked the winner on the next play.  

 

 

That must be the one time that has actually come into play. Not arguing, just think the perceived threat of that scenario is always overblown when the commentators talk about going for it earlier then necessary. 

[CincyBillsFan]

Let me offer an alternate view here and a reason why coaches get ulcers.  By taking the wind in the first quarter McD absolutely did the right thing.  But two players screwed it up.  NE gets the KO and goes 3 and out losing 5 yards. The Bills get the ball at midfield but on 3rd & 7 Knox drops a pass that would have got the Bills a 1st down inside the Pats 35.  We punt and NE again goes 3 and out.  This time their punt is caught in the wind and the Bills take over at NE's 40 yard line.  The Bills get a 1st down and then on FIRST & 10 at the Pats 29 yard line Brieda fumbles away the ball. 

 

After each team had two possessions with us having the wind at our backs we should've been up 10 or even 14 to nothing.  Instead two bad plays by two different players screwed it up.  McD must still have nightmares of how the game started and how close he came to winning it in the 1st quarter.

 

 

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

No coach willingly leaves time on the clock for the opponent to do whatever weird things they might have practiced for such a situation.  The Bills were also out of times out so it think a blocked kick recovery or botched snap would require that they somehow lineup and spike the ball after the mayhem of a botched play and recovering the ball.  I do not think that they get another chance and it was nothing to plan for.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I have been in a bit of Bills news time warp since attending the Monday game as I flew out of Buffalo at 5:30AM the following morning and worked long hours at a company facility all week.  So, while maybe it was discussed in the GDT or post game conversation but as a main take-a-way from this game I do not know if as much was made of this as I think it deserves.  It's as big of a mistake as Wade Phillips' decision to kick a field goal for the lead, on first down at the 23 with 20 seconds on the clock.  

 

The Bills won the coin toss and DEFERRED as if nothing was going to be different about this game.  But  everyone knew it would be different and we knew it all week. 

 

Watching pregame warmups, kicks toward the scoreboard were driven short and to the right from even a modest distance of 40 yards.  Kicks toward the tunnel had a range of 65+ yards leaving me to wonder if we might witness a new NFL record FG.

 

A close game was reasonable to expect and close games get decided in the 4th quarter. With timeout usage, the two minute warning and clock stoppage for out-of-bounds in the last 5 minutes of the game, more plays from scrimmage usually occur in the 4th quarter than in any of the other three.

 

By deferring, Sean McDermott left the decision of whether the Bills would have the wind advantage in the 4th quarter in the hands of Bill Belichick. I 'd bet when the Bills deferred, Bill might have even laughed out loud knowing that everything the Bills might attempt to do in the 4th quarter of a normal game would now become either more difficult to even impossible.  I count this as one of Sean's biggest in game coaching blunders and right up there with Wade's.   

 

On to Tampa Bay, where giving your opponent the option to decide which direction to kickoff in the 3rd quarter is of little consequence.

 

This was discussed, quite a bit.

 

The thing is, I'm not sure it made as much difference as people thought

 

FWIW Kubiak in TBN (I was a little disappointed by his article this week, but he's always worth reading) has this to say about the 3rd Q, when the Bills had the wind:

Quote

The Bills had the wind at their backs in the third quarter and were unable able to get into the end zone on two drives.  In this quarter, powerful wind currents carried the football in unexpected ways as seen on this incompletion......

....Here, on second-and-5, the Bills had what they wanted, single coverage on the outside with breathing room to complete a hitch underneath the coverage. Allen’s read was correct and his throw was accurate until the wind took over. The nose of the football was up as the air current pushed the football off course and to the inside of the field. There wasn’t any way to account for or prevent this knuckleball movement.  This was an example of how the wind wreaked havoc in both directions as well as the reason why the Patriots only threw the football three times.

 

Point is, the Bills were able to move the ball effectively both with and against the wind, and the wind wrecked havoc on our game in both directions.

 

It's a point that we might have succeeded with the missed FG in the 4Q if it were with the wind, but then, would we have failed on the FG in the 3Q and wound up in the same place?  And, if the Bills had used a play to line up the FG correctly, would it have been made?

 

Don't know.  Don't get do-overs.

 

What I do know is that there were failures in execution (dropped passes, fumble) that could have made it our ball game whichever way McDermott chose.

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Let me offer an alternate view here and a reason why coaches get ulcers.  By taking the wind in the first quarter McD absolutely did the right thing.  But two players screwed it up.  NE gets the KO and goes 3 and out losing 5 yards. The Bills get the ball at midfield but on 3rd & 7 Knox drops a pass that would have got the Bills a 1st down inside the Pats 35.  We punt and NE again goes 3 and out.  This time their punt is caught in the wind and the Bills take over at NE's 40 yard line.  The Bills get a 1st down and then on FIRST & 10 at the Pats 29 yard line Brieda fumbles away the ball. 

 

After each team had two possessions with us having the wind at our backs we should've been up 10 or even 14 to nothing.  Instead two bad plays by two different players screwed it up.  McD must still have nightmares of how the game started and how close he came to winning it in the 1st quarter.

 

 

 

 

Much like seasons in general, it matters way more how things end than how they begin.  Wanting that advantage in the 1st quarter rather than the 4th quarter is short sighted and, frankly, foolish.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Much like seasons in general, it matters way more how things end than how they begin.  Wanting that advantage in the 1st quarter rather than the 4th quarter is short sighted and, frankly, foolish.

I believe McD was looking for the knockout blow assuming that Jones couldn't throw the ball in these conditions. While it didn't go according to McD's plan it came pretty damn close.

 

 

 

 

[Just in Atlanta]

I thought the same thing when I did the math.
 

However, I think the plan was to run up the score early so that the patriots would have to rely on Mac Jones to throw by the third quarter — playing into our hand strategically for three reasons: number one, our good secondary, number two, our questionable run defense and number three, Mac Jones in the wind.

That would’ve almost guaranteed a win for us — If we had scored a couple times.
 

That of course never happened.

 

When you break it down further, however, and account for 20 years of repeated history, never ever ever give Bill Belichick any advantage in the fourth quarter.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Much like seasons in general, it matters way more how things end than how they begin.  Wanting that advantage in the 1st quarter rather than the 4th quarter is short sighted and, frankly, foolish.

 

Hapless brings up a good point that the Bills were arguably more inept on offense with the wind in the 3rd quarter so no guarantee that they move the ball well in the 4th quarter with the wind. And the 3rd quarter field goal is likely missed if going into the wind instead of with it.

 

I think McDermott's biggest blunders were 1. wasting two timeouts that could have given the Bills about 70-75 seconds left to work with at the end. And 2. not demanding Daboll call at least two Allen run plays when they were 1st and goal at the six yard line on I think their second to last possession of the game. I got to believe Allen can bully his way to 6 yards on 3 or 4 carries if needed.

[JESSEFEFFER]

A

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Hapless brings up a good point that the Bills were arguably more inept on offense with the wind in the 3rd quarter so no guarantee that they move the ball well in the 4th quarter with the wind. And the 3rd quarter field goal is likely missed if going into the wind instead of with it.

 

I think McDermott's biggest blunders were 1. wasting two timeouts that could have given the Bills about 70-75 seconds left to work with at the end. And 2. not demanding Daboll call at least two Allen run plays when they were 1st and goal at the six yard line on I think their second to last possession of the game. I got to believe Allen can bully his way to 6 yards on 3 or 4 carries if needed.

Anytime the Bills fail in the RZ and Josh did not run even once, that seems like a mistake to me.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Am I incorrect in my assumption that by deferring the first half coin toss McDermott also gets to choose the ball or the wind in the second half?

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I have been in a bit of Bills news time warp since attending the Monday game as I flew out of Buffalo at 5:30AM the following morning and worked long hours at a company facility all week.  So, while maybe it was discussed in the GDT or post game conversation but as a main take-a-way from this game I do not know if as much was made of this as I think it deserves.  It's as big of a mistake as Wade Phillips' decision to kick a field goal for the lead, on first down at the 23 with 20 seconds on the clock.  

 

The Bills won the coin toss and DEFERRED as if nothing was going to be different about this game.  But  everyone knew it would be different and we knew it all week. 

 

Watching pregame warmups, kicks toward the scoreboard were driven short and to the right from even a modest distance of 40 yards.  Kicks toward the tunnel had a range of 65+ yards leaving me to wonder if we might witness a new NFL record FG.

 

A close game was reasonable to expect and close games get decided in the 4th quarter. With timeout usage, the two minute warning and clock stoppage for out-of-bounds in the last 5 minutes of the game, more plays from scrimmage usually occur in the 4th quarter than in any of the other three.

 

By deferring, Sean McDermott left the decision of whether the Bills would have the wind advantage in the 4th quarter in the hands of Bill Belichick. I 'd bet when the Bills deferred, Bill might have even laughed out loud knowing that everything the Bills might attempt to do in the 4th quarter of a normal game would now become either more difficult to even impossible.  I count this as one of Sean's biggest in game coaching blunders and right up there with Wade's.   

 

On to Tampa Bay, where giving your opponent the option to decide which direction to kickoff in the 3rd quarter is of little consequence.

McD could have chosen the wind direction as well to start the second half.  He didn’t thus why the Pats had the wind in the 4th quarter.  But Mcd DID have the ability to assure they had the wind to end the game. 

[klos63]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Hapless brings up a good point that the Bills were arguably more inept on offense with the wind in the 3rd quarter so no guarantee that they move the ball well in the 4th quarter with the wind. And the 3rd quarter field goal is likely missed if going into the wind instead of with it.

 

I think McDermott's biggest blunders were 1. wasting two timeouts that could have given the Bills about 70-75 seconds left to work with at the end. And 2. not demanding Daboll call at least two Allen run plays when they were 1st and goal at the six yard line on I think their second to last possession of the game. I got to believe Allen can bully his way to 6 yards on 3 or 4 carries if needed.

This comment made me think of something, didn't Marv take over play calling in the redzone? I seem to remember him saying that.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, PatsFanNH said:

McD could have chosen the wind direction as well to start the second half.  He didn’t thus why the Pats had the wind in the 4th quarter.  But Mcd DID have the ability to assure they had the wind to end the game. 

 

Yeah that is what i was thinking as well.

 

Thought process then might be that McD thought we moved the ball well enough in the first half against the wind that he wasn't concerned and/or that the wind slowing down from 25 to 20 mph as the night went on meant he wanted to go with the wind in the third quarter when the conditions were worst.

 

In the end I don't think it really matters that much. Bills moved the ball against the wind.  The one TD was thrown going into the wind. The bigger factors were not running Allen more and blowing two timeouts.