Is this this team built the right way?

[Mikie2times]

I wanted to evaluate if this team is built the correct way. As an example, the Run In Shoot is a heralded system littered with statistical champions that has won exactly zero championships in college or professional football. That said, it appeared like it could be the right way for a long time until it was clear it wasn't.  Was the no huddle offense the right way? We did win a lot with it, but we also never won a Super Bowl (I'm not saying it wasn't the right way, but it did have consequences playing that brand of football, good and bad). Say you're excellent at assembling the right talent for the vision you have, as the Oilers were, as Polian was, as Beane and McDermott seem to be, it might still get you nowhere if you have the wrong vision.   

 

Offense

To start off, evaluating this with Josh Allen makes it very hard. He accounts for a massive portion of our run game and also generates a lot of yards in broken plays. At times common sense needs to prevail. Would anybody question since the start of the Josh Allen playoff era we have not had a consistent or successful running game with our RB's? Our actual rushing stats don't matter to me. Those include Josh, which is why it makes it hard. But you can see it, taste it, hear it. We have had no consistent run game with our RB's since the start of the Josh Allen playoff era. We also know Daboll is very tilted toward the passing game sometimes even to the extent that we just give up on the conventional ground game all together. We have spent heavily in players geared to develop the passing attack and have for years. In sum, our vision on offense seems to be very clear. We are ok complimenting our QB driven run game with our RB's and being a predominantly passing team. 

 

Defense

We have a decided advantage against the pass vs the rush in just about every stat conceivable. Our first pick of the Beane era was a DB, our 1st round MLB was certainly known for his range and length. Our DL selections have been dominated by pass rush guys first with very little focus on players better suited to stop the run. In yards per rush allowed since 2019, we have the ranked 19th/24th and 7th this year. In yards per pass allowed since 2019 we have ranked 3rd/9th and 1st this year.  Advantage passing defense. Again, at times common sense needs to prevail. It would certainly appear like we have focused on building a defense that is very focused against the pass. 

 

KC Link?

While this is a passing league, it is not common to find comparable teams to the way we have been built. The only team I can think of with a similar profile as ours is Kansas City. In fact if you look at the year KC won the Super Bowl in 2019 they were about as close to a clone as any team has been to the 2020 Bills (so far the most successful version of this team), KC was 2nd that year in passing yards per attempt, 5th in passing yards per attempt allowed and 29th yards per rush allowed. Compare that to the 2020 Bills at 3rd/9th/24th respectfully. It starts to make you wonder, did we build the team in the form of KC to begin with or did we build the team to compete against them?

 

   

No Balance

On defense, 50% of our games since 2019 have involved 100+ yard outputs by the opposing offense and we are a .500 team in those games, 1-3 this season. Since our first playoff run in 2019, the Bills are 12-12 when they allow over 100 yards rushing on defense and 20-4 when they don't. On offense the Bills are 7-11 when they rush for under 100 yards, and 25-5 when they rush for over 100 yards.

 

The running game does REALLY matter to our success, if nothing else in painting a statistical picture of what we have seen. If you can run on us we are most likely involved in a competitive game. If we abandon the run or can't run, we most likely are involved in a competitive game. In all likelihood both of these things are probably occurring at the same time. By these standards we will be involved in enough very competitive games that we have a ceiling over our head. Yes, we rank 7th in rushing yards per attempt this year and yes, our defense is the best it's ever been this year, but that should scare you even more as we have allowed two 200+ rushing efforts against us this year. Last year it was the same. Like Josh Allen and the offense, our defensive success can be hard to evaluate at times. What we do to teams when we are ahead makes it difficult to evaluate how good we are in situations when the game is competitive. We destroy teams when we know the pass is coming. So I like our 7th rating in rushing yards per attempt this year, but I'm certainly not going to become disillusioned into thinking we have a high caliber rush defense. Too many brutal thrashings have occurred in the last 3 years for me to ever consider that to be true. Almost as if we are watching an option team against us.   

 

In Sum

I don't want to depend on Josh Allen having an MVP season for us to have a chance. He is still growing and I can't imagine what he could look like with some competency out of his RB driven run game. I also don't feel we can depend on our defense to hold up against teams that are good in the run game. It rarely does. Yes, KC won a Super Bowl but they're largely a soft team by my estimation and most certainly an outlier of SB champions. Very few teams that are poor on either side against the rush have ever won a Super Bowl. Most have some degree of balance or at least respect the notion of balance. A lot of the pieces are already in place for this team. I'm curious what we do after the season is over. Does Beane and McDermott stay with Daboll which makes our offensive direction unlikely to change? Do we look at some OL that are not pass centered and go after some mass in the middle? This is a potential Super Bowl team. The talent level is very high, but we are certainly capable of screwing that up if the vision isn't correct.

 

I would like to see more balanced football.   

[CincyBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

 

Offense

To start off, evaluating this with Josh Allen makes it very hard. He accounts for a massive portion of our run game and also generates a lot of yards in broken plays. At times common sense needs to prevail. Would anybody question since the start of the Josh Allen playoff era we have not had a consistent or successful running game with our RB's? Our actual rushing stats don't matter to me. Those include Josh, which is why it makes it hard. But you can see it, taste it, hear it. We have had no consistent run game with our RB's since the start of the Josh Allen playoff era. We also know Daboll is very tilted toward the passing game sometimes even to the extent that we just give up on the conventional ground game all together. We have spent heavily in players geared to develop the passing attack and have for years. In sum, our vision on offense seems to be very clear. We are ok complimenting our QB driven run game with our RB's and being a predominantly passing team. 

 

How many times on 3rd and 3 or 4 do we gain one yard and are forced to pass to convert a 3rd down?  Our RB's don't pass the eye test.

 

I would also say that my eyes tell me that Allen rarely has time to actually scan the field. On almost every passing play it's like a jail break is taking place along the line.  They can claim that Allen has so many seconds to throw until they're blue in the face and I don't care what the watch says.  In almost every one of those plays it's Allen buying time not the O-line giving him time.

 

 

 

 

[Bubba Gump]

It all starts in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Those are the biggest failures so far. Can't run, can't stop the run. When you lose to a team who throws 3 passes all game?? What else do you need to see?

[Dablitzkrieg]

Obviously no

[BarleyNY]

[NewEra]

Probably not. We’ll know for sure in a few weeks

[Mr. WEO]

You mean, like, for a dome?

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

You mean, like, for a dome?

I don't see that fixing everything

[John from Riverside]

I just wonder if we had a dominant offense ol how much different things would be

 

My guess is very different

[BADOLBILZ]

 

For the most part they are built right.

 

The OL has just had a very, very poor year.........including some guys who were excellent last year.........and subsequently the offense has struggled.

 

The defense is built to play with leads so they are a little lighter than ideal to play opposite a too often low scoring offense(but still very effective).

 

And the coaching on offense this season has left a lot to be desired.    

 

But no, it's not like they have holes all over the lineup and no depth or a ton of players who don't fit.

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

For the most part they are built right.

 

The OL has just had a very, very poor year.........including some guys who were excellent last year.........and subsequently the offense has struggled.

 

The defense is built to play with leads so they are a little lighter than ideal to play opposite a too often low scoring offense(but still very effective).

 

And the coaching on offense this season has left a lot to be desired.    

 

But no, it's not like they have holes all over the lineup and no depth or a ton of players who don't fit.

 

 

 

 

We have built a very good team no doubt. I'm discussing balance more than anything. Poor OL play or leads do not resolve our lack of a RB ground game or our ability to stop the better teams who can run the football. These issues have plagued us each of the last 3 years and since the start of our run. Is this something we have to address or not? 

[Ga boy]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

For the most part they are built right.

 

The OL has just had a very, very poor year.........including some guys who were excellent last year.........and subsequently the offense has struggled.

 

The defense is built to play with leads so they are a little lighter than ideal to play opposite a too often low scoring offense(but still very effective).

 

And the coaching on offense this season has left a lot to be desired.    

 

But no, it's not like they have holes all over the lineup and no depth or a ton of players who don't fit.

 

 

 

 

I agree for 21 positions on O and D;  however, Kelly had a HOF RB, and if Josh had one, we'd string together some Lombardi's.  Forget HOF, if Josh just had a franchise RB (e.g.- LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Willis McGahee, Travis Henry, etc), we'd win several.  Go Bills!! 

[Mikie2times]

15 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I just wonder if we had a dominant offense ol how much different things would be

 

My guess is very different

Dominant like last year or balanced and dominant? 

[Andy1]

I also think they have most of the pieces in place. They need a couple big nasty guards and a back with some explosiveness and add reinforcements elsewhere. Hopefully next year Dawkins gets back to a better version of himself. I’m sure Bean did not expect the regression of play on our O line. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

9 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

We have built a very good team no doubt. I'm discussing balance more than anything. Poor OL play or leads do not resolve our lack of a RB ground game or our ability to stop the better teams who can run the football. These issues have plagued us each of the last 3 years and since the start of our run. Is this something we have to address or not? 

this may be a contrarian view, but I think it is impossible to have a balanced team and I actually think a lot of teams  intentionally don’t have a balanced team. 
 

at the end of the year, the teams you have to worry about will have the best QB’s and passing games, because they can score the most points and have more margin for errors.  No one is going to be worried about stopping New England in the playoffs. You gotta

Worry about KC. 

 

 

[DCofNC]

This team is very poorly constructed.  If we are 100% honest, the team we had under Whaley was far better overall and would be dominant with Allen at QB.  That team was winning with Tyrod at QB, look what Tyrod has done since.  Plug Allen into that equation.  If Allen had a strong Running game and a D that could stop the run, albeit struggled with covering the TE, would be scary to all the contenders.   Right now, everyone knows the formula to beat the Bills and they aren’t good enough to stop it.  

[Andy1]

Three of our losses are by a combined 10 points. They are not far off from being where we all want them to be. 

[Toyo321]

Baboll is the reason why this team is having problems.  Our offense has really stepped backwards this year.  Lets get real,  he has had only one good year as an OC.  Last years Bills 2020 team.   This years Bills offensive performance speaks for itself, a lot of yards but the offense is terrible with him calling the shots.

 

Daboll began his NFL coaching career with the New England Patriots as a defensive coaching assistant in 2000 under new head coach Bill Belichick before being promoted to wide receivers coach for the Patriots in 2002. 

 

After the 2006 season, he left the Patriots to serve as the Jets' quarterbacks coach. The Patriots won 3 Super Bowls during Daboll's tenure. Dabol had really nothing to do with this coaching of the NE offense.

 

In 2009, Daboll joined Eric Mangini's staff in Cleveland as offensive coordinator. Under Daboll the Browns had the NFL's 32nd ranked offense in 2009  and the 29th ranked offense in 2010.

 

Daboll was named Offensive Coordinator of the Miami Dolphins under Tony Sparano in 2011, with his Dolphins improving from 30th in the league to 20th in overall offense.

On February 6, 2012 the Kansas City Chiefs announced the hiring of Daboll as offensive coordinator, replacing the retired Bill Muir. Daboll had previously worked with Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel, general manager Scott Pioli and quarterback Matt Cassel in the New England Patriots organization. On January 14, 2013, the New England Patriots announced that he would be brought back in a coaching capacity for the remainder of the Patriots 2012–13 season.

 

He went 2-14 in 2012  in KC.  Offense was ranked 24th.

He went 11-6 in 2013  in KC.   Offense was ranked 21st.

 

He has yet to prove to me or anyone IMO,  else that he is a top 10 OC in this league.   His results are worse than average most of the time on the teams where he was OC.

 

He has always been in the bottom 3rd of the league as a OC and that trend seems to be continuing today.

 

Buffalo Offense ranking each year under Daboll so far..

 

2017 29th Daboll was not OC Rick Dennison was.

2018 30th

2019 24th

2020 2nd

2021 9th so far  its only going to get worse.

 

Daboll needs to go.  MCD better kick it into high gear to try and get someone else in the off season.

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Toyo321

[Bferra13]

3 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

Baboll is the reason why this team is having problems. And our offense has really step backwards this year.  Really he has only had one good year as a OC.  Last years Bills 2020 team.   This year speaks for itself, a lot of yards but the offense is terrible with him calling the shots.

 

Daboll began his NFL coaching career with the New England Patriots as a defensive coaching assistant in 2000 under new head coach Bill Belichick before being promoted to wide receivers coach for the Patriots in 2002. 

 

After the 2006 season, he left the Patriots to serve as the Jets' quarterbacks coach. The Patriots won 3 Super Bowls during Daboll's tenure. Dabol had really nothing to do with this coaching of the NE offense.

 

In 2009, Daboll joined Eric Mangini's staff in Cleveland as offensive coordinator. Under Daboll the Browns had the NFL's 32nd ranked offense in 2009  and the 29th ranked offense in 2010.

 

Daboll was named Offensive Coordinator of the Miami Dolphins under Tony Sparano in 2011, with his Dolphins improving from 30th in the league to 20th in overall offense.

On February 6, 2012 the Kansas City Chiefs announced the hiring of Daboll as offensive coordinator, replacing the retired Bill Muir. Daboll had previously worked with Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel, general manager Scott Pioli and quarterback Matt Cassel in the New England Patriots organization. On January 14, 2013, the New England Patriots announced that he would be brought back in a coaching capacity for the remainder of the Patriots 2012–13 season.

 

He went 2-14 in 2012  in KC.  Offense was ranked 24th.

He went 11-6 in 2013  in KC    Offense was ranked 21st.

 

He has yet to prove to me or anyone IMO,  else that he is a top 10 OC in this league.   His results are worse than average most of the time on the teams where he was OC.

 

He has always been in the bottom 3rd of the league as a OC and that trend seems to be continuing today.

 

Buffalo Offense ranking each year under Daboll so far..

 

2017 29th Daboll was not OC Rick Dennison was.

2018 30th

2019 24th

2020 2nd

2021 9th so far  its only going to get worse.

 

 

 

They miss out on the playoffs or lose in the first round I think he will be let go. Should have took his opportunity last year and get paid like his comparibable contemporaries... the Freddie kitchens and Matt nagys if the world. That's about what he is worth.  Pretty sure no one will wat him anymore as as a hc so we are stuck with this guy or be forced to fire him. 

[reddogblitz]

10 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

They miss out on the playoffs or lose in the first round I think he will be let go. Should have took his opportunity last year and get paid like his comparibable contemporaries... the Freddie kitchens and Matt nagys if the world. That's about what he is worth.  Pretty sure no one will wat him anymore as as a hc so we are stuck with this guy or be forced to fire him. 

 

What if we keep Coach Daboll and hire a run game coordinator?