My view about why the Bills are not doing good this year

[maryland-bills-fan]

it is actually quite simple and understandable.

 

The Bills figured that they had to go through KC and the Ravens to get to the SB.  Those teams are based on running QB's and high scoring offenses that use run/pass options and have to be outscored.

 

So they drafted and built the Bills to use Allen's passing and scrambling on offense. They can score a lot of points to outscore those teams. Not a lot of hat-on-hat push at the line of scrimmage and combination/pulling blocks and 7 yard runs from good solid, fast running backs.  No need to force the opponent to defend against 40 yards from a running back, if the passing game works.

 

So they drafted and built the Bills defense to have a lot of light, range linebackers for pass defense and a lot of light pass rushers who could run down the scrambling/runnng mobile QB.   Fast light DB's can keep up with freelancing WR and not be outrun by speedy QB'ss.   We drafted a bunch of speedly DE's to track down Mahones and not to outmuscle  330 pound OLmen.

 

 

What has happened is this strategy is NOT the one to use now, because the league has figured out the counter to this approach.  Several teams (NE, Colts, Titans ...) have brought back the good old fashioned strong running games, that the Bills defense is weak against.   Teams are going back to the 1940, 1950 1960 5 man defensive lines (you can get there by blitzing to harrass the medium/long passing game as well as affording gap coverage.  We went light on road grader offensive linemen and break-away running backs.

 

Opps !!!

[All_Pro_Bills]

22 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

it is actually quite simple and understandable.

 

The Bills figured that they had to go through KC and the Ravens to get to the SB.  Those teams are based on running QB's and high scoring offenses that use run/pass options and have to be outscored.

 

So they drafted and built the Bills to use Allen's passing and scrambling on offense. They can score a lot of points to outscore those teams. Not a lot of hat-on-hat push at the line of scrimmage and combination/pulling blocks and 7 yard runs from good solid, fast running backs.  No need to force the opponent to defend against 40 yards from a running back, if the passing game works.

 

So they drafted and built the Bills defense to have a lot of light, range linebackers for pass defense and a lot of light pass rushers who could run down the scrambling/runnng mobile QB.   Fast light DB's can keep up with freelancing WR and not be outrun by speedy QB'ss.   We drafted a bunch of speedly DE's to track down Mahones and not to outmuscle  330 pound OLmen.

 

 

What has happened is this strategy is NOT the one to use now, because the league has figured out the counter to this approach.  Several teams (NE, Colts, Titans ...) have brought back the good old fashioned strong running games, that the Bills defense is weak against.   Teams are going back to the 1940, 1950 1960 5 man defensive lines (you can get there by blitzing to harrass the medium/long passing game as well as affording gap coverage.  We went light on road grader offensive linemen and break-away running backs.

 

Opps !!!

The Bills are built around an offense designed to score a lot of points through the passing game and a defense that feeds off QB pressure and turnovers when all that works and the opponent is forced to play it the same way on offense.  Most teams don't have the personnel to keep up.  When it doesn't work they get into trouble.  And this season it hasn't worked too well against better teams that have the personnel and the coaches that can adapt to different game plans an schemes.  Flexibility.  There's a clear deficiency on the offensive and defensive lines.  We all see it and I'm sure Bills management sees it.  They rolled the dice and assumed the risk it will work and it hasn't.  They need to fix it but its too late for this season.  its not so much what you want to do its what you can do that matters.  Lots of teams have had great passing attacks they relied on but they've also had a ground game when needed. 

 

Jim Kelly had Thurman Thomas and a complementary running game

Steve Young had Roger Craig and a complementary running game

Kurt Warner had Marshall Faulk and a complementary running game

Payton Manning had Edgerin James and a complementary running game

 

Josh Allen has what?  A running game with an offensive line and a running back group that's good for about 60 yards a week. 

 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

4 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Jim Kelly had Thurman Thomas and a complementary running game

. . .remember, Marino had nothing behind him - why he & the Fish always came in 2nd.

[JohnNord]

40 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

it is actually quite simple and understandable.

 

The Bills figured that they had to go through KC and the Ravens to get to the SB.  Those teams are based on running QB's and high scoring offenses that use run/pass options and have to be outscored.

 

So they drafted and built the Bills to use Allen's passing and scrambling on offense. They can score a lot of points to outscore those teams. Not a lot of hat-on-hat push at the line of scrimmage and combination/pulling blocks and 7 yard runs from good solid, fast running backs.  No need to force the opponent to defend against 40 yards from a running back, if the passing game works.

 

So they drafted and built the Bills defense to have a lot of light, range linebackers for pass defense and a lot of light pass rushers who could run down the scrambling/runnng mobile QB.   Fast light DB's can keep up with freelancing WR and not be outrun by speedy QB'ss.   We drafted a bunch of speedly DE's to track down Mahones and not to outmuscle  330 pound OLmen.

 

 

What has happened is this strategy is NOT the one to use now, because the league has figured out the counter to this approach.  Several teams (NE, Colts, Titans ...) have brought back the good old fashioned strong running games, that the Bills defense is weak against.   Teams are going back to the 1940, 1950 1960 5 man defensive lines (you can get there by blitzing to harrass the medium/long passing game as well as affording gap coverage.  We went light on road grader offensive linemen and break-away running backs.

 

Opps !!!

Yep, the NFL is a chess match.  Something works well on offense and defense figure it out and the offense has to counter and on…. 

 

Defenses figured out how to slow Mahomes and Allen with Cover 2 shell. Both teams tried responding by running the ball to little success because they lack talent in the running game (Buffalo more than KC).  Also both teams want to fire their OC! 
 

Hate to say it but kinds like Belichick and even Frank Reich seem to be one step ahead sometimes 

[Norcalbillsfan]

There's alot I agree with here. But I think another point is the bills are built to score fast and score alot, pressing teams to get out of their plan and play catch up. Then our D line rotation is fresh and comes after your qb. The bills unfortunately this year have gotten off to Terrible starts and it back fires, every game we have lost, we fell exactly into the opposing teams plan. And it's so infuriating to watch the bills fall PRECISELY into belichicks/Reichs plan and we can't do anything to adjust.

[Coach Tuesday]

doing WELL

[NewEra]

Balance is important.  last season we didn’t have D or the running game to finish the job.  
 

We underestimated just how unbalanced our offense was last season.  We thought it would take x amount to become just balanced enough, when it was actually going to take xx amount.  We didn’t do nearly enough this offseason to improve our run game. 
 

I have no problems with our defense this season.  It’s not the best, but it’s certainly good enough imo.  If we had this years defense on last years team, I think we would’ve beaten the chiefs and lost to Brady in the SB.  That TB front 4 would’ve made our OL look really bad, just like they did KC. 
 

these next couple drafts are going to be monumental.  Who we decide to resign and let walk almost equally important.  
 

[BillMafia716ix]

Josh hasn’t been good on 3rd down and we haven’t been able to score in the redzone.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

37 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The Bills are built around an offense designed to score a lot of points through the passing game and a defense that feeds off QB pressure and turnovers when all that works and the opponent is forced to play it the same way on offense.  Most teams don't have the personnel to keep up.  When it doesn't work they get into trouble.  And this season it hasn't worked too well against better teams that have the personnel and the coaches that can adapt to different game plans an schemes.  Flexibility.  There's a clear deficiency on the offensive and defensive lines.  We all see it and I'm sure Bills management sees it.  They rolled the dice and assumed the risk it will work and it hasn't.  They need to fix it but its too late for this season.  its not so much what you want to do its what you can do that matters.  Lots of teams have had great passing attacks they relied on but they've also had a ground game when needed. 

 

Jim Kelly had Thurman Thomas and a complementary running game

Steve Young had Roger Craig and a complementary running game

Kurt Warner had Marshall Faulk and a complementary running game

Payton Manning had Edgerin James and a complementary running game

 

Josh Allen has what?  A running game with an offensive line and a running back group that's good for about 60 yards a week. 

 

I cannot help but notice you haven’t mentioned the all time Super Bowl champ QBs famous running back?

[BuffaloBillies]

We just need a few better, bigger, stronger players on both sides of the ball in the trenches.

 

We're going to see first hand on Sunday the type of guy we need anchoring our D-line...

 

 

For the O-Line. Prolly need 3 new dudes.

Keep Spencer Brown and Dawkins (but maybe move him inside).

I'm not sold on anyone else....upgrade the remaining 3 spots.

 

I think the running game would take care of itself then.

 

Easier said than done, of course. 2-3 FAs and 1-2 high draft picks.

 

 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

15 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I cannot help but notice you haven’t mentioned the all time Super Bowl champ QBs famous running back?

. . .probably because Brady uses the short passing game as a substitute for the run game.

[The Frankish Reich]

Good points, OP! So a lot of this reiterates your points but in a somewhat different way.

 

The Bills kind of doubled down on what worked in 2020 - not just for the Bills, but NFL-wide. It was the highest scoring season in NFL history: 24.8 ppg. Nine teams, including the Bills, averaged 28+ ppg, and all of them made the playoffs. It was reasonable to assume that the scoring environment (as they say in baseball) had shifted, and that the shift was ongoing. Trying to make the playoffs by holding your opponent to 21 or under? Not a very good strategy. 

 

But as you noted: in retrospect, maybe a bit short-sighted. Every NFL action causes a reaction, and we started to see it toward the end of last year when, lo and behold, certain run-heavy (by 2020 standards, not by historical standards) teams started to have success, and certain pass-happy teams started to run into roadblocks. That trend continued into this year: scoring is down 2 points per game, right back to where it was in 2019.

 

A few weeks ago everyone was outraged when the Bills were characterized as running a "spread offense." I'm not sure that was technically true (as "spread" has traditionally been defined), but it was damn close - Allen in the shotgun most of the time, one back (if any), no fullback ever, etc., etc. And as we've seen with KC, defenses started to figure out how to defend the big play-dependent teams. And there were by luck or inability to get the big play certain teams that zagged when the best teams zigged, including our old friends, the Pats. 

 

They'll get it figured out. But I think it's too late to do it this year. By the time December rolls around your identity is your identity, it's too late to make major changes to offensive philosophy, and it's really too late to bring in new personnel. So maybe we get lucky this year. Or maybe we play the wait till next year game again.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillies said:

We just need a few better, bigger, stronger players on both sides of the ball in the trenches.

 

We're going to see first hand on Sunday the type of guy we need anchoring our D-line...

 

 

For the O-Line. Prolly need 3 new dudes.

Keep Spencer Brown and Dawkins (but maybe move him inside).

I'm not sold on anyone else....upgrade the remaining 3 spots.

 

I think the running game would take care of itself then.

 

Easier said than done, of course. 2-3 FAs and 1-2 high draft picks.

 

 

The covers will be pulled back off Mitch Morse after this game!!

I think lack of a real deep threat is killing the offense. Smoke/Allen used to put fear in defenses. Really wish Beane would’ve targeted in FA Desean Jackson. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I cannot help but notice you haven’t mentioned the all time Super Bowl champ QBs famous running back?

I did think of Brady but didn't list him because I could not think of a RB he teamed with over time in the manner of the other examples.  That's not to say Brady wasn't aided by a good complimentary running game.  Of all the seasons they won the Super Bowl the team ranked in the lower half in rushing in just the 2014 season (18th) where Belichik's Jedi mind trick at the end of the game convinced Carrol's offensive minds to call a quick one-yard slant pass into heavy traffic at the goal line which was intercepted to seal the win for NE instead of handing the ball off to Lynch who was unstoppable on that drive.  Of all his SB appearances Brady's best performance was against the Eagles where they lost.   I could argue their running game and defense were as important to those wins as the QB.

 

 

[Captain_Quint]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

doing WELL

Opps!!

 

[Nextmanup]

The league is NOT going back to a "run first" type of offense.  Not even close.

 

The Bills need to THROW THE BALL MORE.  That is what we are made for.  Not run.

If we do what we do best, and are built for, we will be just fine.

 

Either we can win the Super Bowl this year with a pass-first attack, or somebody else will! 

 

You think Indy is gonna win the SB?  Think again.

 

 

[bigK14094]

55 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

The covers will be pulled back off Mitch Morse after this game!!

I think lack of a real deep threat is killing the offense. Smoke/Allen used to put fear in defenses. Really wish Beane would’ve targeted in FA Desean Jackson. 

Yup Mitch will not handle Vita Vea well at all.  VV will blow him up!

[SoCal Deek]

Wrong! The Bills are simply under performing in the clutch this year. With the exception of the Indianapolis game they’ve had the ball and the chance to win or tie at the end. They’ve lost four games that way. Unacceptable lack of in the moment focus. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I think the defense is largely fine.

 

We’ve lost (5) games. (4) of them were because the offense couldn’t score.

 

23, 34, 9, 41, 14 points allowed.

 

16, 31, 6, 15, 10 points scored.

 

Only one of those those games would I say the defense got smashed, that’s Indy Colts.

 

Otherwise, our offense had chances to score at the end of the game and couldn’t get it done. 

[Big Turk]

Kinda seems that whenever the league gets too far in one direction, some teams go the opposite direction to force things back to the middle...it's smart...keeps things in balance