The Bills as a franchise under McDermott historically, relatively speaking - everything is OK

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well, now he has Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs and the offense is ranked 14th in DVOA (passing offense 12th). I think that is unacceptable.

Still a bunch of games to go against bad passing defenses outside of NE. Let's see how it all shakes out. 

[Chicken Boo]

The team is competitive and will likely be in the playoffs year after year under this regime, but that will only satisfy the masses for so long.

 

For now, it's not a problem. 

 

  

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Still a bunch of games to go against bad passing defenses outside of NE. Let's see how it all shakes out. 

 

Good passing games against bad passing defenses are not going to move the needle much on DVOA. I am quietly confident in the 2nd Pats game. Let's see if Daboll can get the offense in rhythm. He has done it a few times this season before inexplicably going away from what worked.

[GunnerBill]

Excellent thread. I think the issue for a lot of fans is we are in a division with a team who seemed to win 12 or 13 games every season for about two decades. That isn't normal even for other very good, consistent teams. Brady and Belichick will never be matched and never be beaten. The GOAT and the GOAT for 2 decades together. People who have that as the bar are going to be disappointed.  

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Good passing games against bad passing defenses are not going to move the needle much on DVOA. I am quietly confident in the 2nd Pats game. Let's see if Daboll can get the offense in rhythm. He has done it a few times this season before inexplicably going away from what worked.

Tampa's pass D at least in DVOA terms is better than I thought - 7th. I thought they've been dealing with a zillion DB injuries all season? Or is it that they play in a division with terrible passing games (I'm including ATL here)?

Edited December 8, 2021 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Tampa's pass D at least in DVOA terms is better than I thought - 7th. I thought they've been dealing with a zillion DB injuries all season? Or is it that they play in a division with terrible passing games (I'm including ATL here)?

 

Their DBs have been bad but the front 7 has still been productive. 

[78thealltimegreat]

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'll say this about Daboll: before coming to Buffalo, he has worked with what collectively has to be the worst set of QBs of the 21st century: Brady Quinn (twice! - in both Cleveland and KC), Derek Anderson, Seneca Wallace, a rookie Colt McCoy, Matt Moore, and the late-period corpse of Matt Cassel.  Matt Moore was the best of the bunch, which is saying something.  

No, the Bills were down by 2 scores with less than two minutes to go. That's a fact. It was 23-13 when the Bills got a garbage time FG to make it 23-16. They were dominated in the second half.

What are you talking about the bills where leading 10-6 to start the 4th quarter and fell behind 13-10 on the 4th down call that gave the Steelers the ball at mid field….they then blocked a punt with 8:19 left to make it 20 to 10 

Edited December 8, 2021 by 78thealltimegreat

[transient]

This FO had been methodically addressing weaknesses on the team prior to the pandemic. I would love to know what FA/draft would have looked like without the unplanned drop in the salary cap. They made the necessary moves in the off-season to compete with KC, which seemed reasonable at the time. They also tried to bring in JJ Watt to address the DL (which thankfully they missed out on).
 

Without the regression in the OL this season (though one might argue since the playoffs last season) the poor run D could have been overcome. I think they were counting on getting out of the gate quickly on offense and forcing teams to keep up. It just hasn’t happened, which exposes their defense to power running teams. 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:

What are you talking about the bills where leading 10-6 to start the 4th quarter and fell behind 13-10 on the 4th down call that gave the Steelers the ball at mid field….they then blocked a bunt with 8:19 left to make it 20 to 10 

I am merely saying that it wasn't a one-score game when it mattered in crunch time. It was a two-score game. The Bills' final score to make it a one-score game was basically meaningless. I do realize they led earlier in the game. 

[Coach Tuesday]

So in general I completely agree with the premise here.  When you look at W/L record the Bills are in a good spot over the past few years relative to the rest of the league regardless of this season's outcome.

 

Fans' frustration this year is reasonable - they had a plum schedule with relatively good injury luck and they coached their way to a mediocre season (so far) - the talent level on this team is higher than the performance level, penalties are assessed at an alarming rate, and the weekly gameplans have been garbage many weeks.

 

Stepping back you worry about trends - you don't want to end up anywhere on the NFC North Suck Index:

 

Lions:  Perennially horrible franchise with zero hope for ever turning things around (we're no longer in that bucket thanks to the Pegulas & McBeane, thank God).

Bears: Poor coaching and roster decisions and uncertainty at QB (we're no longer in that bucket, though we were more recently).

Vikings: Constantly treading water - seem to have an organizational goal of spending just enough to remain competitive and stumble into early-round playoff exit (we were very recently here).

Packers: Top-five QB but a cautious approach to team-building and tendency to "run it back" have alienated their admittedly mercurial douchebag of a QB and have squandered his prime years where they should've been stacking rings (we may be here: this offseason will help inform whether Beane has the will and the ambition to add roster pieces).

[ngbills]

Any team that has a top 3 QB should win or the coach should be fired. So no 11-6 or 10-7 should not be viewed as a success. 

[78thealltimegreat]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I am merely saying that it wasn't a one-score game when it mattered in crunch time. It was a two-score game. The Bills' final score to make it a one-score game was basically meaningless. I do realize they led earlier in the game. 

Ok I was pointing out that in each game they had a chance to win in the 4th quarter 

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Ok I was pointing out that in each game they had a chance to win in the 4th quarter 

Oh, definitely. I'm thinking more about it coming down to the wire. When Pitt went up by two scores with 10 minutes to go, they traded FGs before the Bills got their final one with 49 seconds left. It's virtually impossible to succeed on an onside kick anymore, so it was over when the Bills let the Steelers march down the field with 5 and a half minutes to go and kick a FG with about 2 and half minutes left.

Edited December 8, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

48 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Tampa's pass D at least in DVOA terms is better than I thought - 7th. I thought they've been dealing with a zillion DB injuries all season? Or is it that they play in a division with terrible passing games (I'm including ATL here)?

 

They're super stout up the middle so teams tend to get away from running the ball.  NE ran the ball with backs 6 times for -4 yards and almost won (thats gotta be the strangest stat - a team that had a game and passed 3 times and had another in the same season where they ran it only 6 times).  

 

Very takeaway dependent - forced 12 fumbles and have 13 interceptions.  Barret, suh, vea, JPP is a fearsome front 4 that will get after it if Buffalo doesn't execute or gameplan to keep them honest.  

 

They haven't played the best list of passing offenses either - Giants, Eagles, WFT, Saints, Bears, ATLx2, Indy, Miami, and NE.  I'd look at the tape of what they did to stop Mahomes in the SB and figure they look to replicate something similar.  Get after with front 4, keep the rush depth short to force Allen away from the LOS when he scrambles, probably play a fair amount of man, and double diggs.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

(A statement up front: the Patriots should not be the benchmark by which to measure the Bills relative to other successful NFL teams. They are an outlier like John Wooden's teams were outliers.)

 

Let's assume for a second that the Bills go 11-6 this season (a big assumption, but plausible). Under McDermott, they will have gone

 

9-7

6-10

10-6 (would have been 11-5 if the finale actually mattered; they would have utterly destroyed the Jets)

13-3

11-6 / 10-7

 

Then compare the Bills to other good teams with longtime coaches in recent years: the Ravens under Harbaugh, the Steelers under Tomlin, the Chiefs under Reid, the Saints under Payton, the Packers under McCarthy, the Seahawks under Carroll, and the Giants under Coughlin. Note the trend: most seasons are good ones, but there are a lot of 10-6 and 9-7 seasons. They're never truly terrible teams either; the worst you'll generally see is the occasional 7-9/8-8 seasons. See the links below.

My point is that there is a ton of parity in the NFL which makes it very hard to pump out 13-3 seasons year after year. Accounting for the fact that no normal team will ever be the Patriots under Belichick, the Bills are performing like your typical long-term good team. They'll have some great seasons mixed with some decent ones, and every once in a while they'll have injury issues that make them a .500 team. The other constant to go with long-term winning coaches is good quarterbacking, and the Bills are set at that position, thankfully. I don't see them winning the SB this season, but I also think the fixes they need to make to go 13-4 as opposed to 11-6/10-7 are relatively easy to make. They have a good core of talent with holes, just like every other team. But the fixes they need -- better interior offensive linemen, a better RB, one more #2 corner, and a new run-stuffer - are about the easiest positions to find in both FA and the draft assuming you're always drafting in the 20s.

 

I'm just as unhappy as anyone that this isn't shaping up to be a great year, but they're still a good team and are built to be good for a while. The stars really do need to align for a SB run, and this just isn't the year. That's OK. Maybe next year will be. As long as Allen is slinging it and there's continuity with the coach/GM (both of whom are good, perceptive, and self-aware), they'll be competitive. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/

Right now I see the Bills as a little more than Marvin Lewis's Bengals. Good enough for the playoffs...then who knows. 

 

Lewis was great at getting there...0-7 once the playoffs started. While at the very least McDermott has won a couple playoff games...everything being "relatively ok" really isn't the acceptable standard here anymore. 

[BillsVet]

51 minutes ago, transient said:

This FO had been methodically addressing weaknesses on the team prior to the pandemic. I would love to know what FA/draft would have looked like without the unplanned drop in the salary cap. They made the necessary moves in the off-season to compete with KC, which seemed reasonable at the time. They also tried to bring in JJ Watt to address the DL (which thankfully they missed out on).
 

Without the regression in the OL this season (though one might argue since the playoffs last season) the poor run D could have been overcome. I think they were counting on getting out of the gate quickly on offense and forcing teams to keep up. It just hasn’t happened, which exposes their defense to power running teams. 

 

McDermott has a lot of say in scheme, personnel to align, and player acquisition.  His idea of a roster is something that needs an overhaul.  They've improved on previous regimes by getting a bonafide franchise QB, but that can cover up deficiencies.  As in, investing on an OL to protect said QB and help with the run game. 

 

They could be a lot more efficient with their cap dollars - which is the solution when unexpected events appear like a lowered cap.  And a lot of that comes from being better on draft day so you're not needing to sign so many UFA's that start.  The OL is a perfect example because they've used mostly UFAs there and haven't drafted well outside of Dawkins who should kick inside at some point. (EDIT: Spencer Brown looks promising in his 1st season).  

 

45 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

So in general I completely agree with the premise here.  When you look at W/L record the Bills are in a good spot over the past few years relative to the rest of the league regardless of this season's outcome.

 

Fans' frustration this year is reasonable - they had a plum schedule with relatively good injury luck and they coached their way to a mediocre season (so far) - the talent level on this team is higher than the performance level, penalties are assessed at an alarming rate, and the weekly gameplans have been garbage many weeks.

 

For me, expectations can  increase during a season.  In 2019, their schedule was ridiculously weak and at 10-6 smart fans knew something was off and they weren't as good as the record suggested.  Fast forward to this year and expectations are through the roof after the AFC CG appearance.  Schedule is soft, but they've managed to sink to 7-5 and that's disappointing.  

 

Season isn't lost, but much of that stems from off-season preparation.  Looks like they figured what worked last year with only minor tweaking would be sufficient to get to the SB this season.  It still may be, but for a franchise that talks about hard work it was short-sighted.  Beane and McD really concern me about their knowledge of offense and aligning personnel to match as other teams improve against and adapt to Buffalo.  

Edited December 8, 2021 by BillsVet

[Governor]

2 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Look other then the egg they laid against the colts this team easily could be 11-1.

Pitt 7 points

Ten 3 points 

Jax 3 points 

NE 4 points 

 

They’ve lost 4 games by a combined 17 points and in each of those games had a chance to win.

People are just frustrated right now and rightfully so since their problems mostly are fixable but it may have to wait till the off season and this blowing a year in their Super Bowl window 

You can’t fix these problems in 1 draft. Not even close.

 

We need an entire new OL and scheme. We need at least 1 high drafted LB, CB, DT, and RB.

 

We have 2 aging safeties that need to be replaced. Beasley needs to be replaced.

 

The window slammed shut my dude. This rebuild will take at least 3 drafts and then time to settle in and this regime will be gone by then.

[dave mcbride]

15 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Right now I see the Bills as a little more than Marvin Lewis's Bengals. Good enough for the playoffs...then who knows. 

 

Lewis was great at getting there...0-7 once the playoffs started. While at the very least McDermott has won a couple playoff games...everything being "relatively ok" really isn't the acceptable standard here anymore. 

Lewis never won a playoff game and never had a true franchise QB. The Bills have and do.

Edited December 8, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Governor]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Lewis never won a playoff game and never had a true franchise QB. The Bills have and do.

Those Bengals teams were much better than us, except at QB.

[Beast]

As long as Allen is our QB I think we will have high expectations.