The Bills as a franchise under McDermott historically, relatively speaking - everything is OK

[dave mcbride]

(A statement up front: the Patriots should not be the benchmark by which to measure the Bills relative to other successful NFL teams. They are an outlier like John Wooden's teams were outliers.)

 

Let's assume for a second that the Bills go 11-6 this season (a big assumption, but plausible). Under McDermott, they will have gone

 

9-7

6-10

10-6 (would have been 11-5 if the finale actually mattered; they would have utterly destroyed the Jets)

13-3

11-6 / 10-7

 

Then compare the Bills to other good teams with longtime coaches in recent years: the Ravens under Harbaugh, the Steelers under Tomlin, the Chiefs under Reid, the Saints under Payton, the Packers under McCarthy, the Seahawks under Carroll, and the Giants under Coughlin. Note the trend: most seasons are good ones, but there are a lot of 10-6 and 9-7 seasons. They're never truly terrible teams either; the worst you'll generally see is the occasional 7-9/8-8 seasons. See the links below.

My point is that there is a ton of parity in the NFL which makes it very hard to pump out 13-3 seasons year after year. Accounting for the fact that no normal team will ever be the Patriots under Belichick, the Bills are performing like your typical long-term good team. They'll have some great seasons mixed with some decent ones, and every once in a while they'll have injury issues that make them a .500 team. The other constant to go with long-term winning coaches is good quarterbacking, and the Bills are set at that position, thankfully. I don't see them winning the SB this season, but I also think the fixes they need to make to go 13-4 as opposed to 11-6/10-7 are relatively easy to make. They have a good core of talent with holes, just like every other team. But the fixes they need -- better interior offensive linemen, a better RB, one more #2 corner, and a new run-stuffer - are about the easiest positions to find in both FA and the draft assuming you're always drafting in the 20s.

 

I'm just as unhappy as anyone that this isn't shaping up to be a great year, but they're still a good team and are built to be good for a while. The stars really do need to align for a SB run, and this just isn't the year. That's OK. Maybe next year will be. As long as Allen is slinging it and there's continuity with the coach/GM (both of whom are good, perceptive, and self-aware), they'll be competitive. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/

Edited December 8, 2021 by dave mcbride

[RoyBatty is alive]

Expectations were astronomical for the year and hence the fall this year is psychologically devastating, and lo and behold we fall as the Pats ascend.

 

I agree with mot of what you say but now I am uncertain about the coaching on this team.  That loss was absurd, as absurd as was our loss to Jax.  I don't think we have been as badly outcoached in those two games as we were in our first Super bowl.

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, RoyBatty is alive said:

Expectations were astronomical for the year and hence the fall this year is psychologically devastating, and lo and behold we fall as the Pats ascend.

 

I agree with mot of what you say but now I am uncertain about the coaching on this team.  That loss was absurd, as absurd as was our loss to Jax.  I don't think we have been as badly outcoached in those two games as we were in our first Super bowl.

The losses have been brutal this year… Tenn, Jax and NE …they probably should have won all three and then they were absolutely curb stomped by the Colts..

 

it’s especially disappointing that they have failed his year when there isn’t a dominant team in the AFC… 

[First Round Bust]

we still can make the playoffs so we got some fun yet to come...

the off-season will deal with the interior of both our lines - the starting tackles are in place, what to do about Hughes - I say keep

for the draft - they have to ask themselves how they missed on Ford, CB-OL-DL are the priority - how D Williams sank after a good year, keep some vets for depthL Feliciano, Phillips

[hondo in seattle]

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

The losses have been brutal this year… Tenn, Jax and NE …they probably should have won all three and then they were absolutely curb stomped by the Colts..

 

it’s especially disappointing that they have failed his year when there isn’t a dominant team in the AFC… 

 

Tenn and NE - we lost close games to good teams.  It happens.

 

Jax -  Inexplicable.  Inexcusable.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

The losses have been brutal this year… Tenn, Jax and NE …they probably should have won all three and then they were absolutely curb stomped by the Colts..

 

it’s especially disappointing that they have failed his year when there isn’t a dominant team in the AFC… 

What is really painful is looking back on the season, we had so many games that we were favored by, so many teams with rookie QBs or backups.  At the start of the Season I though we would lose one to the Pats, KC, Tenn (with Henry) the Bucs, the Saints (loud in that dome) .

 

I think we had the easiest schedule in decades this year, incredible waste of an opportunity.

[78thealltimegreat]

Look other then the egg they laid against the colts this team easily could be 11-1.

Pitt 7 points

Ten 3 points 

Jax 3 points 

NE 4 points 

 

They’ve lost 4 games by a combined 17 points and in each of those games had a chance to win.

People are just frustrated right now and rightfully so since their problems mostly are fixable but it may have to wait till the off season and this blowing a year in their Super Bowl window 

[RoyBatty is alive]

5 minutes ago, First Round Bust said:

we still can make the playoffs so we got some fun yet to come...

the off-season will deal with the interior of both our lines - the starting tackles are in place, what to do about Hughes - I say keep

for the draft - they have to ask themselves how they missed on Ford, CB-OL-DL are the priority - how D Williams sank after a good year, keep some vets for depthL Feliciano, Phillips

Yeah that is what we all thought last year.

[Thurman#1]

Yeah, correct.

 

Teams have good and bad years, it's what happens.

 

Of course, that doesn't mean we should all say, "So everything's fine, they can just keep going status quo, everything's fine." There are problems and they need to be working on them and working hard. 

 

But they will.

[First Round Bust]

4 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yeah that is what we all thought last year.

and the answer was continuity - they were counting on stability, the return of Star,and a veteran O-line spending more time playing together

[dave mcbride]

17 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Look other then the egg they laid against the colts this team easily could be 11-1.

Pitt 7 points

Ten 3 points 

Jax 3 points 

NE 4 points 

 

They’ve lost 4 games by a combined 17 points and in each of those games had a chance to win.

People are just frustrated right now and rightfully so since their problems mostly are fixable but it may have to wait till the off season and this blowing a year in their Super Bowl window 

The Bills were down by 2 scores vs Pitt with less than 2 minutes to go. That game was out of reach.

[GLP]

"A statement up front: the Patriots should not be the benchmark by which to measure the Bills relative to other successful NFL teams."

I disagree. The Pats are in our div, we play them twice a year... minimum. We need to beat them so they are our benchmark. Period.

 

Last year the Pats had cap space problems and went 7-9 after picking up Cam Newton off the scrapheap to play QB.

This past offseason with plenty of cap space BB went about fixing his team. He signing a ton of players in free agency that fit his football schemes.

Then BB drafted well as usual. Picking players that fit his schemes. He now has a franchise QB from Bama that fits his scheme on offense.

 

BB fixed this team in one offseason because he knows what he needs and goes and gets it. We need to do the same. But what has McBean done the last 3 drafts?

You know, spent most of their draft capital on the D line:

2019 - E. Oliver

2020 - A. Epenesa

2021 - G .Rousseau

2021 - C. Basham

And we still can't stop teams from running on us.

 

That's way, way, way, too much draft capital focused on the D line, at the expensive of other positions, like OL and RB.

You want to beat the Pats? Find players that fit your schemes and can play.

 

The problem is that McBean can't identify these players. If they could they wouldn't have spent 3 years of draft capital on the DL.

If you can't identify what you need you can't go get it.

We're in trouble because McBean can't do what BB does. Period.

[dave mcbride]

24 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

The losses have been brutal this year… Tenn, Jax and NE …they probably should have won all three and then they were absolutely curb stomped by the Colts..

 

it’s especially disappointing that they have failed his year when there isn’t a dominant team in the AFC… 

All of the teams I listed above all have losses like the Jax loss every once in a while. It sucks and it should never have happened, but that's what parity does. Go look at Saints and Ravens losses in their pretty good years - lots of close, gut-wrenching losses to good teams.   

Just now, GLP said:

That's way, way, way, too much draft capital focused on the D line, at the expensive of other positions, like OL and RB.

You want to beat the Pats? Find players that fit your schemes and can play.

 

The problem is that McBean can't identify these players. If they could they wouldn't have spent 3 years of draft capital on the DL.

If you can't identify what you need you can't go get it.

We're in trouble because McBean can't do what BB does. Period.

The Bills are a good but flawed team -- just like every other good team in a semi-down year in the midst of a long run of success. You'll appreciate that d-line when the Bills find themselves in a close game involving a lot of passing by the opponent. Could happen as soon as this week.

[dave mcbride]

41 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Expectations were astronomical for the year and hence the fall this year is psychologically devastating, and lo and behold we fall as the Pats ascend.

 

I agree with mot of what you say but now I am uncertain about the coaching on this team.  That loss was absurd, as absurd as was our loss to Jax.  I don't think we have been as badly outcoached in those two games as we were in our first Super bowl.

I honestly felt we lost that game to the Pats because of a failure to execute on offense. At key moments the plays were there, but the mistakes in execution were just too plentiful. I know the game looked ugly for the D, but at the end of the day they held their opponent to 14 points and 240 total yards and had nine tackles behind the LOS. This was a team that was averaging 30 points per game over the previous six games.  

[HappyDays]

Agreed on McDermott. I haven't lost my confidence in him once this season. The worst thing you can say about him is that he isn't as good as Belichick and that's obviously not a realistic standard.

 

Less certain on Beane and Daboll right now, especially Daboll. He historically has coached bad offenses, admittedly with little talent but that is his resume. When McDermott at his presser is talking about lack of "offensive rhythm" in the red zone that doesn't sound like a shot at the players to me. Daboll took a job that an experienced OC wouldn't have wanted but now we have Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs playing at an elite level so we can attract a top tier OC.

 

Beane says all the right things about being strong in the trenches but the results have not matched the efforts. I'm still not anywhere close to wanting him fired but this is going to be a big offseason for him. He needs to elevate the offense around Josh Allen. Defensive inconsistency from year to year is excusable in the modern NFL, but offensive regression when you have a top 5 QB and a top 5 WR is really not excusable.

Edited December 8, 2021 by HappyDays

[Aussie Joe]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

All of the teams I listed above all have losses like the Jax loss every once in a while. It sucks and it should never have happened, but that's what parity does. Go look at Saints and Ravens losses in their pretty good years - lots of close, gut-wrenching losses to good teams.   

 

Just because it happens to other teams ( who have won SBs) doesn’t really help alleviate my disappointment that it is happening to the Bills this year when hopes were so high..l

[78thealltimegreat]

32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills were down by 2 scores vs Pitt with less than 2 minutes to go. That game was out of reach.

The game was tied in the second half till a punt was blocked and need I remind you of the awful 4th down call at the 45 yard line which lead to the go ahead touchdown 

Edited December 8, 2021 by 78thealltimegreat

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

Agreed on McDermott. I haven't lost my confidence in him once this season. The worst thing you can say about him is that he isn't as good as Belichick and that's obviously not a realistic standard.

 

Less certain on Beane and Daboll right now, especially Daboll. He historically has coached bad offenses, admittedly with little talent but that is his resume. When McDermott at his presser is talking about lack of "offensive rhythm" in the red zone that doesn't sound like a shot at the players to me. Daboll took a job that an experienced OC wouldn't have wanted but now we have Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs playing at an elite level so we can attract a top tier OC.

 

Beane says all the right things about being strong in the trenches but he has failed to fulfill his promise. I'm still not anywhere close to wanting him fired but this is going to be a big offseason for him. He needs to elevate the offense arpund Josh Allen. Defensive inconsistency from year to year is excusable in the modern NFL, but offensive regression when you have a top 5 QB and a top 5 WR is really not excusable.

I'll say this about Daboll: before coming to Buffalo, he has worked with what collectively has to be the worst set of QBs of the 21st century: Brady Quinn (twice! - in both Cleveland and KC), Derek Anderson, Seneca Wallace, a rookie Colt McCoy, Matt Moore, and the late-period corpse of Matt Cassel.  Matt Moore was the best of the bunch, which is saying something.  

Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:

You would be incorrect…The game was tied in the second half till a punt was blocked and need I remind you of the awful 4th down call at the 45 yard line which lead to the go ahead touchdown 

No, the Bills were down by 2 scores with less than two minutes to go. That's a fact. It was 23-13 when the Bills got a garbage time FG to make it 23-16. They were dominated in the second half.

[Rico]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

(A statement up front: the Patriots should not be the benchmark by which to measure the Bills relative to other successful NFL teams. They are an outlier like John Wooden's teams were outliers.)

 

Let's assume for a second that the Bills go 11-6 this season (a big assumption, but plausible). Under McDermott, they will have gone

 

9-7

6-10

10-6 (would have been 11-5 if the finale actually mattered; they would have utterly destroyed the Jets)

13-3

11-6 / 10-7

 

Then compare the Bills to other good teams with longtime coaches in recent years: the Ravens under Harbaugh, the Steelers under Tomlin, the Chiefs under Reid, the Saints under Payton, the Packers under McCarthy, the Seahawks under Carroll, and the Giants under Coughlin. Note the trend: most seasons are good ones, but there are a lot of 10-6 and 9-7 seasons. They're never truly terrible teams either; the worst you'll generally see is the occasional 7-9/8-8 seasons. See the links below.

My point is that there is a ton of parity in the NFL which makes it very hard to pump out 13-3 seasons year after year. Accounting for the fact that no normal team will ever be the Patriots under Belichick, the Bills are performing like your typical long-term good team. They'll have some great seasons mixed with some decent ones, and every once in a while they'll have injury issues that make them a .500 team. The other constant to go with long-term winning coaches is good quarterbacking, and the Bills are set at that position, thankfully. I don't see them winning the SB this season, but I also think the fixes they need to make to go 13-4 as opposed to 11-6/10-7 are relatively easy to make. They have a good core of talent with holes, just like every other team. But the fixes they need -- better interior offensive linemen, a better RB, one more #2 corner, and a new run-stuffer - are about the easiest positions to find in both FA and the draft assuming you're always drafting in the 20s.

 

I'm just as unhappy as anyone that this isn't shaping up to be a great year, but they're still a good team and are built to be good for a while. The stars really do need to align for a SB run, and this just isn't the year. That's OK. Maybe next year will be. As long as Allen is slinging it and there's continuity with the coach/GM (both of whom are good, perceptive, and self-aware), they'll be competitive. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/

Good post. Still too early to write the season off, but I don’t think they can touch the 2003 Bills after 2 games for biggest disappointment in Bills history.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'll say this about Daboll: before coming to Buffalo, he has worked with what collectively has to be the worst set of QBs of the 21st century: Brady Quinn (twice! - in both Cleveland and KC), Derek Anderson, Seneca Wallace, a rookie Colt McCoy, Matt Moore, and the late-period corpse of Matt Cassel.  Matt Moore was the best of the bunch, which is saying something.  

 

Well, now he has Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs and the offense is ranked 14th in DVOA (passing offense 12th). I think that is unacceptable.