Does AJ Epenesa exist?

[Solomon Grundy]

On 12/7/2021 at 3:06 PM, par73 said:

Watched him at Iowa, he looked like a mid-late round pick. Just a bad selection in the 2nd round (there have been a few of these under this regime).

I wanted the Bills to move up and get Jonathan Taylor

[Hebert19]

He will be a back up until his cheapness runs out on rookie deal then we will part ways.  Look for another DE in the draft this year.  

 

DE 

CB

WR

G

[vincec]

26 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

He will be a back up until his cheapness runs out on rookie deal then we will part ways.  Look for another DE in the draft this year.  

 

DE 

CB

WR

G

Too much already invested in young DEs. Maybe they pickup a veteran but I can’t see them drafting another one in the first round. At thins point, I would guess:

DT

WR

G/C

[97bills]

9 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Ohhh you said bad words about Beane’s drafting, you are in troubbbble!  Personally, I couldn’t agree more, lots of suspect picks.

No way Harry is getting that much, he’s a low end replacement.  He’ll be lucky to get 3.5 a year.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see him back at vet min for 1 year.

Yea what I was thinking isn’t good against the run and doesn’t really offer much getting after the QB. We really need a lot on the defense line. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

On 12/7/2021 at 1:58 PM, FireChans said:

Just trying to figure out if he’s real or like a computer generated Madden player or something. I see him on the website as a Bill. Not sure I’ve ever seen him play.

Yes he does:

But... Zimmer is out for the year.

[GunnerBill]

So I think Epenesa has disappointed after a strong camp, strong pre-season and a strong start to the season. In the first 4 games he had 8 pressures with 4 QB hurries and 4 QB hits. Since week 4 he has only 5 pressures in 8 games, with 1 hurry and 3 QB hits. As a pass rusher he has disappeared. He has been decent setting the edge but not great, he isn't setting the edge as well as say Shaq Lawson did his last 2 seasons here. It's all just a bit flat. I didn't agree with that decision to bench him in Tennessee for Obada after the start to the year he had made, and I don't know if that knocked his confidence or whatever, but unfortunately he really hasn't found a consistent level of play since that point. Not sure what his trade value would be, but I suspect if someone flipped the Bills a conditional pick (maybe something that started as a 2023 6th but could become a 5th or even a 4th based on performance conditions) they'd be open to trading him after the season. 

[ganesh]

20 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Ohhh you said bad words about Beane’s drafting, you are in troubbbble!  Personally, I couldn’t agree more, lots of suspect picks.

No way Harry is getting that much, he’s a low end replacement.  He’ll be lucky to get 3.5 a year.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see him back at vet min for 1 year.

The previous two guys who exited the Bills from those position got 8-10M a year from Arizona and Miami.  I am not sure why Phillips will not get a bigger deal.  Good DTs are at a premium and someone will always overpay like we did with Star,  Addison etc/

[TampaBillsJunkie]

On 12/7/2021 at 4:36 PM, BuffaloRebound said:

If McDermott and Frazier keep asking him to lose weight, maybe he doesn’t really exist.  

If he takes off more weight, they should try him as an OLB/DE hybrid. If he learns to cover in space, take out TE's and rush the passer, he might be a good weapon in a bigger, more hybrid defense other than the 4-2-5 we keep trotting out.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, ganesh said:

The previous two guys who exited the Bills from those position got 8-10M a year from Arizona and Miami.  I am not sure why Phillips will not get a bigger deal.  Good DTs are at a premium and someone will always overpay like we did with Star,  Addison etc/

 

Because Jordan Phillips had 9.5 sacks the year he was going into free agency. Harrison Phillips has 0.5 sacks for his career. Teams pay for pass rush production. Even Shaq was coming off a career high 6.5 sacks going into FA. 

 

Rotational / backup 1 techs like Harrison Phillips get a couple of million dollars at best. Take someone like Rakeem Nunes-Roches who is the backup 1 tech in Tampa, 1.5 career sacks. They extended him last offseason - 1 year $1.5m. Now you might argue Harrison is a better player than him but he was an effective backup for the Superbowl champs. Harrison is get $3m AAV absolute maximum IMO. 

[Niagara Bill]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So I think Epenesa has disappointed after a strong camp, strong pre-season and a strong start to the season. In the first 4 games he had 8 pressures with 4 QB hurries and 4 QB hits. Since week 4 he has only 5 pressures in 8 games, with 1 hurry and 3 QB hits. As a pass rusher he has disappeared. He has been decent setting the edge but not great, he isn't setting the edge as well as say Shaq Lawson did his last 2 seasons here. It's all just a bit flat. I didn't agree with that decision to bench him in Tennessee for Obada after the start to the year he had made, and I don't know if that knocked his confidence or whatever, but unfortunately he really hasn't found a consistent level of play since that point. Not sure what his trade value would be, but I suspect if someone flipped the Bills a conditional pick (maybe something that started as a 2023 6th but could become a 5th or even a 4th based on performance conditions) they'd be open to trading him after the season. 

Confidence he doesn't need, violent aggressive behavior is missing.😉😉

[HIT BY SPIKES]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because Jordan Phillips had 9.5 sacks the year he was going into free agency. Harrison Phillips has 0.5 sacks for his career. Teams pay for pass rush production. Even Shaq was coming off a career high 6.5 sacks going into FA. 

 

Isn't it so revealing about a player who does nothing except for his final contract year?

 

What makes a GM think it is not a motivational problem and the player will just go back to his historic attitude after getting a big contract?

[BillsVet]

20 hours ago, ßookie_tech said:

Maybe they should let him get back up to 275 and see if that is a better playing weight for him. 

 

If there's one thing clear about McD, he needs pressure generated from the front 4.  They pushed for Epenesa to drop weight so as not to be a base end in a 4-3.  

 

A DE in McD's scheme who doesn't put pressure on the QB is a hinderance to the defensive scheme because it forces them to blitz more which impacts their coverage.  

 

That said, before Epenesa went down for Covid, his snap count was tailing off.  Unless there's an injury, he went from 70% in week 11 down to 30% 2 weeks later.  

 

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

On 12/30/2021 at 12:37 PM, sherpa said:

Unfortunately, we have grossly overpaid for the production of our defensive line.

If we don't get more inside run stopping, edge containment and quarterback pressure, we are in for a short post season.

The Tre'Davious White injury makes their performance a necessity.

 

Agreed.

 

It's not just Epenesa.  It seems like our entire cadre of DEs has been mediocre.  Even Jerry is less effective than he used to be.  

[DCofNC]

8 hours ago, ganesh said:

The previous two guys who exited the Bills from those position got 8-10M a year from Arizona and Miami.  I am not sure why Phillips will not get a bigger deal.  Good DTs are at a premium and someone will always overpay like we did with Star,  Addison etc/

Those guys actually got on the field AND produced.  The guy has played in 43 Games in 4 years, and has a whopping 101 tackles, and a HALF of a sack.  The guys that got paid were actually impactful.  Outside of Buffalo fans, nobody thinks he’s a “good” player.  His own coaches don’t want him on the field, hence he’s a back up and in a rotation.  Nobody is paying him anything, he’s a fringe NFL player at this point in his career.   If you honestly think he’s going to get paid, I’m beyond glad you aren’t in the front office.  

[Bookie Man]

20 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

If there's one thing clear about McD, he needs pressure generated from the front 4.  They pushed for Epenesa to drop weight so as not to be a base end in a 4-3.  

 

A DE in McD's scheme who doesn't put pressure on the QB is a hinderance to the defensive scheme because it forces them to blitz more which impacts their coverage.  

 

That said, before Epenesa went down for Covid, his snap count was tailing off.  Unless there's an injury, he went from 70% in week 11 down to 30% 2 weeks later.  

 

 

 

Yeah maybe he’d be able to generate more pressure as a power rusher is what I meant. 

[billsfan1959]

20 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Agreed.

 

It's not just Epenesa.  It seems like our entire cadre of DEs has been mediocre.  Even Jerry is less effective than he used to be.  

 

FWIW, according to ESPN Analytics:

 

Top 10 DE/OLB Pass Rush Win Rate
10. Jerry Hughes

 

Top 10 DE/OLB Run Stop Win Rate
4. Greg Rousseau

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32176833/2021-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

FWIW, according to ESPN Analytics:

 

Top 10 DE/OLB Pass Rush Win Rate
10. Jerry Hughes

 

Top 10 DE/OLB Run Stop Win Rate
4. Greg Rousseau

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32176833/2021-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

 

The Bills are 1st in QB hurries and 2nd in QB pressures according to pro football reference. The issue the Bills have had is not making Quarterbacks uncomfortable it is getting to them and sacking them. I don't think we have a finisher in that front 7 but also McDermott and Frazier do not want people freelancing up front for the benefit of sack numbers. They want you to stay in your lane and be disciplined with your rush to avoid the risk of you giving up big plays. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

When you really think about the amount of Dline guys we have taken in the first 2 rounds in the last few years…man almost none are good. Or at least really good. It’s sad. Just a pile of wasted picks. I’m not saying they all stink but it definitely feels like we could have gotten more by spreading those picks out.

 

Edited January 1, 2022 by Brianmoorman4jesus

[billsfan1959]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills are 1st in QB hurries and 2nd in QB pressures according to pro football reference. The issue the Bills have had is not making Quarterbacks uncomfortable it is getting to them and sacking them. I don't think we have a finisher in that front 7 but also McDermott and Frazier do not want people freelancing up front for the benefit of sack numbers. They want you to stay in your lane and be disciplined with your rush to avoid the risk of you giving up big plays. 

 

Absolutely right. They play a disciplined defense that is designed to work as a cohesive unit. Again, and FWIW, ESPN analytics rank the Bills defense at # 5 in pass rush win rate. Football outsiders has them # 2 in pass def DVOA, #14 in rush def DVOA, and #2 in overall in tot def DVOA. They are #1 in opp completion %, #3 in INTs, #1 in YP/Att, #1 in Passing TDs given up, 1st in opponent QB rating, #1 in passing 1st downs allowed, etc., etc, etc...

 

...and #27 in sacks

 

Would I love more sacks? Sure. But I will take the results they are getting in overall pass defense every time over a high number of sacks

 

Edited January 1, 2022 by billsfan1959

[MJS]

This will be an interesting off-season. With the vets gone in Hughes and Addison, the young guys will need to step up.

 

Honestly, Obada has been promising the last few weeks. We've seen flashes from the rookies.

 

I remember Bills coaches and players talking Epenesa up so much in the preseason, but he hasn't been a factor in the regular season. It is for sure disappointing.

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills are 1st in QB hurries and 2nd in QB pressures according to pro football reference. The issue the Bills have had is not making Quarterbacks uncomfortable it is getting to them and sacking them. I don't think we have a finisher in that front 7 but also McDermott and Frazier do not want people freelancing up front for the benefit of sack numbers. They want you to stay in your lane and be disciplined with your rush to avoid the risk of you giving up big plays. 

I agree completely. I do think it would be great to have that finisher. But I do think we have been affecting throws and causing discomfort. It's just been a long time since we had a guy who consistently brought the QB down. Probably Mario Williams was the last guy?