Bills @ Bucs talk

[Logic]

33 minutes ago, finn said:

Help me out here. What's up with the pessimism? We finally have everyone back on the offensive line, and pretty much everyone is healthy. White being out is big, but he isn't the only reason the defense has been one of the best in the league. Yet people are full of doom and gloom. Why? The Pats game was a complete anomaly because of the weather; against the Colts, we were down Star, Edwards, Mongo and Brown. We lost to the Jags, but the Bucs lost to Washington; stuff happens. The Bills are pissed and hungry. 

 

I'm totally looking forward to this game. It's going to be a real shootout that will show a changing of the guard from Brady to Allen. 

I'm usually a relentless optimist, but this matchup -- on paper -- is not great.

In terms of the war in the trenches, where games are decided, I see Tampa Bay as having the edge on both the offensive and defensive lines. Linebackers? Edge goes to Tampa. Secondary? Given the lack of Tre White (which I think Brady will absolutely exploit), I'd have to say Tampa again. Their offense vs our defense? I'm not so confident that a Wallace/Jackson cornerback pairing will be particularly effective limiting a passing attack featuring Evans, Godwin, and Gronk. Leonard Fournette vs this rush defense?

I have an irrational feeling that despite everything I just laid out, the Bills will play well this Sunday. It won't surprise me if they win. It also won't surprise me if they lose 38-16. Based on the specific matchups and with the way the team has played lately (and I didn't even MENTION Brady's decades-long ownership of the Bills), it's easy to me to see why Bills fans would be pessimistic.

[SCBills]

58 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I like your optimism but the Pats** game set me back with my expectations to 2018 levels. After each of the games against Colts, Jags and Pats** game, we came up with different excuses. Losers make excuses, winners just win. We are looking more like the former than the latter 

 

I'm unfortunately in the same boat and will need to see it to believe it at this point.  

 

That Pats loss might have been one of the biggest blows to fans psyche i've ever witnessed.  It can be turned around by this team either beating Tampa Bay, or finishing strong after Sunday, but man.. 

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by SCBills

[Logic]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

I'm unfortunately in the same boat and will need to see it to believe it at this point.  

 

That Pats loss might have been one of the biggest blows to fans psyche i've ever witnessed.  It can be turned around by this team either beating Tampa Bay, or finishing strong after Sunday, but man.. 

 

Agreed.

Even after everything else they've gone through this year, if the Bills had won on Monday night (and make no mistake, they SHOULD HAVE), they'd be 8-4, leading the division, and with a pretty realistic shot at the top seed in the AFC.

Instead, they lost a very winnable game, in a very classic, Bills-like "stealing defeat from the jaws of victory" fashion, and in so doing, showed their lack of adaptability and creativity on offense -- a critical problem considering that we face the Bucs and Pats (two good defenses) in two of our next three games.

With just that Monday night loss, Bills fans went from "we could still get the top seed!" to "are we even going to make the playoffs?". Many went from "we overcame adversity, we can still do this!" to "I'm questioning everything about this team right now".

It was a huge, monumental, crushing loss. People can brush it off and say "it was just one loss, no big deal", and I understand that as a coping mechanism, but...holy hell, that was a bad and demoralizing loss.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I like your optimism but the Pats** game set me back with my expectations to 2018 levels. After each of the games against Colts, Jags and Pats** game, we came up with different excuses. Losers make excuses, winners just win. We are looking more like the former than the latter 

50 MPH winds is a pretty good excuse though. 

[Jrb1979]

12 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

50 MPH winds is a pretty good excuse though. 

While it is an excuse, it also shows the problem with being a pass happy offense with little running game. It works against bad teams but so far against good teams they have failed. 

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said:

While it is an excuse, it also shows the problem with being a pass happy offense with little running game. It works against bad teams but so far against good teams they have failed. 

 

Either Pegula is going to have to build a dome or Beane is going to have to build an OL and find a decent RB. 

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Does anyone have any sense of the injury situation for Tampa's secondary? I know Edwards is down for faking his covid vaccination. 

 

Isn't it funny how Tommy leaves New England and goes to Tampa Bay and the cheating follows him?

 

2 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Sherman had been an absolute liability out there before getting hurt. Kinda happy he's back. Allen had no trouble with him last time they faced off. 

 

If he plays, do what Bill Bellyache did.  work on him.  Throw his way a lot. Put Diggs on his side of the field.  Take advantage.

Edited December 9, 2021 by reddogblitz

[Nextmanup]

53 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I'm unfortunately in the same boat and will need to see it to believe it at this point.  

 

That Pats loss might have been one of the biggest blows to fans psyche i've ever witnessed.  It can be turned around by this team either beating Tampa Bay, or finishing strong after Sunday, but man.. 

 

Hang in there!  

 

We may easily lose in Tampa, but I think we run the table thereafter, assuming "normal" cold weather in Foxborough; we're the better team.

 

On a normal day when we can do whatever we want (and so can NE) we are the better team.

 

Keep in mind losing in Tampa doesn't really impact our playoff odds at all; a win there would be nice, but it's not necessary.  I think a lot of fans don't get that.

 

 

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

 

 

Keep in mind losing in Tampa doesn't really impact our playoff odds at all; a win there would be nice, but it's not necessary.  I think a lot of fans don't get that.

 

 

Somewhat true, but not entirely.

While a LOSS to TB only drops the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 62%, a WIN against TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 92%, per Fivethirtyeight.com

It's a big game.

[Greg S]

8 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Hang in there!  

 

We may easily lose in Tampa, but I think we run the table thereafter, assuming "normal" cold weather in Foxborough; we're the better team.

 

On a normal day when we can do whatever we want (and so can NE) we are the better team.

 

Keep in mind losing in Tampa doesn't really impact our playoff odds at all; a win there would be nice, but it's not necessary.  I think a lot of fans don't get that.

 

 

 

I see it the same way. Look at the remaining schedule

 

at Tampa Bay

Carolina

at New England

Atlanta

Jets

 

The 3 home games should be wins. There is no excuse to lose any of them. They can't lay another egg like they did vs the Jags. They lose any one of these 3 then they won't make it IMHO.

 

Can they find a way to go at least 1-1 vs NE and Tampa? If they lose both will 10 wins be enough assuming they beat the scrubs?

Edited December 9, 2021 by Greg S

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

26 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Either Pegula is going to have to build a dome or Beane is going to have to build an OL and find a decent RB. 

 

Spot on.

 

I am a big-time domer. But it is only because our team is constructed for good weather.  I am all for the elements if we can use it to our advantage. 

 

I also don't see why we can't have a retractable roof too as an option-- what an advantage that would be. We open the roof when it suits our team and matchup. 

[Nextmanup]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

Somewhat true, but not entirely.

While a LOSS to TB only drops the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 62%, a WIN against TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 92%, per Fivethirtyeight.com

It's a big game.

Nah....we are heading down the path of wild card berth.  Gotta get used to that.

 

We have a 89%-90% chance of playoffs even with losses in Tampa and NE.

Not sure where you are getting your percentages.

 

I'm using the NY Times simulator and the ESPN simulators.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I see it the same way. Look at remaining schedule

 

at Tampa Bay

Carolina

at New England

Atlanta

Jets

 

The 3 home games should be wins. There is no excuse to lose any of them. They can't lay another egg like they did vs the Jags. They lose any one of these 3 then they won't make it IMHO.

 

Can they find a way to go at least 1-1 vs NE and Tampa? If they lose both will 10 wins be enough assuming they beat the scrubs?

It will probably come down to our ability to take care of business and beat up on the 3 "easy" games.

If we lose 1 or more of those, we won't make the playoffs and THAT'S when this place SHOULD go off the rails! 

 

But that is a long way from happening now.

 

For the most part, we have beaten up on bad teams this year and I think we win those 3 going away.

 

 

[Logic]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

Nah....we are heading down the path of wild card berth.  Gotta get used to that.

 

We have a 89%-90% chance of playoffs even with losses in Tampa and NE.

Not sure where you are getting your percentages.

 

I'm using the NY Times simulator and the ESPN simulators.

 

 

Respectfully, my post had nothing to do with the "wild card vs division champs" discussion.

I also listed exactly where I got my results: Fivethirtyeight.com.

When you're 7-5 and currently holding the 7th and final spot in the playoffs, every game is a big game. 

The point is that, while the Bucs game isn't a "must win", winning it would hugely increase the odds of the Bills making the playoffs. 

[reddogblitz]

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

Spot on.

 

I am a big-time domer. But it is only because our team is constructed for good weather.  I am all for the elements if we can use it to our advantage. 

 

I also don't see why we can't have a retractable roof too as an option-- what an advantage that would be. We open the roof when it suits our team and matchup. 

 

I don't think you build a stadium dome vs non dome based on the current roster and style of play.  Lets say Terry decides today he wants a dome. It will take 4-5 years to get approved etc and built.  By that time who knows what we'll have roster wise?  5 years ago today we were a running team. 

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

Respectfully, my post had nothing to do with the "wild card vs division champs" discussion.

I also listed exactly where I got my results: Fivethirtyeight.com.

When you're 7-5 and currently holding the 7th and final spot in the playoffs, every game is a big game. 

The point is that, while the Bucs game isn't a "must win", winning it would hugely increase the odds of the Bills making the playoffs. 

I just re-did it at NY Times.  85% chance to make playoffs with losses to TAMPA and NEW ENGLAND.

 

IF we lose at TAMPA, but win out, we have a 100% chance of making playoffs, according to Times.

 

And you were saying Tampa is not entirely unimportant?

 

Maybe you are suggesting we have no chance to win out after Tampa?

 

I think we have a good chance to do that, but we haven't won 4 in a row (or 2 in a row!) in a long time.

 

I just refuse to get caught up in the Tampa panic; it's not necessary.

 

The time for panic will be in NE and then the 3 "easy games".  If we don't take care of business there, we're done.

 

 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I just re-did it at NY Times.  85% chance to make playoffs with losses to TAMPA and NEW ENGLAND.

 

IF we lose at TAMPA, but win out, we have a 100% chance of making playoffs, according to Times.

 

And you were saying Tampa is not entirely unimportant?

 

Maybe you are suggesting we have no chance to win out after Tampa?

 

I think we have a good chance to do that, but we haven't won 4 in a row (or 2 in a row!) in a long time.

 

I just refuse to get caught up in the Tampa panic; it's not necessary.

 

The time for panic will be in NE and then the 3 "easy games".  If we don't take care of business there, we're done.

 

 

I agree that there's no need to panic if we don't beat Tampa Bay.

My main point is that it's still a big game, because winning it would increase the Bills playoff chances dramatically. Using the NY Times playoff machine you mention, a win in TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 77% to 90%. That's a big increase. While 77% is still "statistically more likely than not", it's not a lead pipe lock. 90% is much closer to that.

By winning in TB, the Bills avoid putting themselves in a position where they HAVE to go 4-0 or 3-1 in the remaining games to make the playoffs. It takes them from "backs up against the wall and little to no margin for error" to "a little bit of breathing room".

Panic if they lose? No. Unimportant game? Also no.

[Fallser]

Just got the presale ticket email

from the Bills, after we get destroyed Sunday I’m not sure playoffs are a lock, let alone a Home playoff game.

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 hours ago, finn said:

Help me out here. What's up with the pessimism? We finally have everyone back on the offensive line, and pretty much everyone is healthy. White being out is big, but he isn't the only reason the defense has been one of the best in the league. Yet people are full of doom and gloom. Why? The Pats game was a complete anomaly because of the weather; against the Colts, we were down Star, Edwards, Mongo and Brown. We lost to the Jags, but the Bucs lost to Washington; stuff happens. The Bills are pissed and hungry. 

 

I'm totally looking forward to this game. It's going to be a real shootout that will show a changing of the guard from Brady to Allen. 

I'm typically pretty optimistic. However some I'm starting to see the writing on them wall for this season. 

 

We beat teams QB'd by Heineke and Mahomes (during periods they were struggling) Tua, Brissett, Seimen, Mike White and Davis Mills. Hardly a murders row. 

 

Since the KC game this team is a sub .500 team. But injuries...right? That's a cop out excuse to me. Believe it or not...injuries happen to every team. The Cards kept winning without Kylar, D-Hop, Chase Edmunds...ect. The Bucs have been missing Gronk, Brown, Marpet and their whole secondary. Still won. Heck the Raiders are down their HC and most explosive offensive weapon and still finding wins.  Titans have been missing players, the Ravens lost every RB in a 3 mile radius to their facility, Browns still in the hunt after losing Kareem and Chubb for bits and playing a 1 armed Mayfield....but yea we can't win without Feliciano and Star.

 

This team is not built well. Let's face that fact. We have 2nd string level guys as starters at key positions...so when they get hurt and drop down the talent level is far below what should be on the field.

 

On top of that we cannot run/stop the run. Haven't been able to close out close games. We are a 1 dimensional broken offense that cannot consistently cash in when in the red zone or get great starting field position. 

 

But yea, we can just reel off wins from here on out no matter what. 🙄

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Thank God they play another game. The negativity on this board is too much to handle especially after a loss so I try to avoid it.

 

On a positive note, Bills 28 - Bucs 24

is my prediction. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

I hope Daboll says "***** it, if we're going down, we're going down swinging" and empties the bag of tricks. I want motions, jet sweeps, designed QB runs, trick plays, screens, you name it. 

We're NOT going to be able to run the ball against this team, so sling that sumbitch around the yard and play like it's the last game of your life.

If we're gonna lose, can we at least make it fun? Can we at least make it look good? Like, I didn't mind the Tennessee loss so much. It was entertaining as hell and we went down like fighters. The Colts and Pats losses, well...not so much. 

MAKE BILLS FOOTBALL FUN AGAIN

This is actually what they should do. After losing to NE the way we did, we're in more desperation mode. Let it all hang out. Blitz more, use the whole frickin playbook. The weather should cooperate. No crazy winds, 5-10mph. Let it all hang out.