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Posted
4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

But more Biden's fault than anyone's, according to you 


Biden‘s weakness and insistence they join NATO were catalysts. Yes.

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Posted

Interesting take. To make a long story short, this guy argues that the Ukraine offensive has done massive damage to Russia by slashing major supply lines to the south. The Russian army, already is bad shape logistically, is not in a desperate situation, basically stuck in the mud. This author sees Putin's situation deteriorating 

. Let's hope! 

 

Oh, it's the second tweet, not that first one 

 

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Starr-Bills said:

Still spreading disinformation I see. You do you.

How do you distinguish the truth from disinformation here? Dis meaning intent to deceive and mis meaning being misinformed and repeating it. Almost all "information" on this conflict is screened, produced, and approved by the Russian and Ukrainian governments. Neither is going to say a bad word about themselves. Exaggeration of their position is standard. Truth is we don't really know the facts. There's no independent press. They'll get arrested for telling the truth if it's bad for their government or side.

If you assume everything is a lie you'll be right more than wrong.

What's curiously weird is the people who claim to be the smartest tend to be the most gullible and always believe and obey authority. 

 

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Posted (edited)

This recent incursion by Ukraine, while a great propaganda/morale move, seems to have put their troops in an extremely vulnerable position. From the map I saw, all Putin has to do is cut off their escape back to Ukraine, and he has thousands of Ukrainian troops stuck in Russia with no means of re-supply. 

Edited by PetermansRedemption
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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

This recent incursion by Ukraine, while a great propaganda/morale move, seems to have put their troops in an extremely vulnerable position. From the map I saw, all Putin has to do is cut off their escape back to Ukraine, and he has thousands of Ukrainian troops stuck in Russia with no means of re-supply. 

 

Correct. The problem is that Russia isn't really capable of large scale mechanized maneuvers anymore, which is what you'd need to pull that off. Their professional, high tech, low drag army was destroyed about a year and a half ago.

 

They've tried over and over again to ram tank/APC borne assaults through Ukraine's defences. Check out videos of Vuhledar to see how those turned out.

 

Now, they fight positional war leveraging superior manpower and firepower to advance. This generates the slow, small, consistent gains they enjoy right now.  They pay for it in 5k men killed per month if you believe Putin, much, much more than that if you believe their military bloggers.  This is fine for now, as Russian can recruit 20-30k/ men per month thanks to astronomically high military wages and bonuses, and very, very generous disability and death benefits for veterans.

 

But it also means there army is s-l-o-w, and the whole theatre is awash in recon drones.  Not much chance of building up a large assault force before it's detected. Conversely,  Ukrainian units in the assault are highly mechanized.  There's not much chance of encirclement unless the Ukrainians duplicate the mistakes of Sevierodonetsk and Lysychansk and let themselves be encircled by fighting too hard in dumb positions. Oleksandr Syrsky the current Ukrainian C in C, has been much better at avoiding dumb fights than Valeriy Zaluzhny was.

 

They're in a good spot, and they can always ***** it up, but there's not much chance of Ukrainians being cut off and encircled outside of rabid ZZZZZZZ brained spaces.

 

Russian military bloggers like Fighterbomber, Geroman and Rybar are becoming more confident, but they still note that even today, Ukraine is punching holes in the Russian defense.  Even if more and more Russian reserves are arriving in the area and the pace of Ukrainian advances is slowing down.

 

Sidenote, this whole offensive may well be Ukraine calling it's backers bluffs.  They drove the biggest military force since WWII over Russia's border, without so much as a by your leave...and have not disappeared under mushroom clouds as Putin threatens seemingly every Tuesday. 

Edited by Coffeesforclosers
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Posted

This guy is claiming the Russian rail system is facing catastrophic failure in the near future because of roller bearings, which are sanctioned by the west, and wearing out quickly, with no replacements in sight. Here's hoping! 

 

 

 

 

 

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