All_Pro_Bills Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, B-Man said: So it seems now all the attention is on these two breakaway states and Putin today announced that he’s not interested in annexing then he’ll just recognize them. That seems like the most likely scenario at the moment. We should know more in a couple hours time. The spin will be to provide assistance to the ethnic Russian population in their bid for autonomy from Ukraine. Then Putin will describe it as a battle between the Ukraine's central government and the newly recognized independent provinces. Not a war between Ukraine and Russia. Whether the US plays this as an "invasion" scenario or something else isn't clear. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 Putin is now working on his second phase of his justification for war (or, if you prefer, annexing part or all of Ukraine and thus leading to at least a limited war, and maybe a much more serious war). Post-Crimea: This clearly violated the post-Soviet Minsk Agreement, in which nuclear weapons stationed by the Soviets in non-Russian republics (Ukraine, Kazhakstan, Belarus) were "repatriated" to the Russian Federation in exchange for (among other things) Russian recognition of new international boundaries, including the Ukraine-Russian border. Putin claimed the Ukrainian democracy movement (that is, movement away from being a Russian puppet state to being a functioning democracy) was in essence a "revolution," such that the agreement with the pre-revolution Ukrainian state was null and avoid. Therefore, Russia no longer needs to recognize those 1994 borders. Now: Putin is moving into the second phase of that theory in action. Eastern Ukraine (we're not sure how much yet) is now considered historically and culturally "Russia" and he intends to annex it under Russian law. Of course, if Ukraine resists with military force, he'll have his casus belli and may use that to overthrow the entire Ukrainian government by force. I have some friends from the Baltic states, and they know very well that they're next. Not to sound, umm, uncaring, but ... Eastern Ukraine alone really isn't that big a deal. But we've seen that Putin's bizarre dream of reconstituting the Soviet Empire comes with a long timeline. He's coming close to annexing (ostensibly by choice) Belarus and maybe Kazakhstan, and by taking a large swath of Ukraine (by might). As Biden said about something very different about a dozen years ago, "this is a big effin' deal." How the US, Europe, and the rest of the world respond now may very well dictate how far Putin takes those Soviet dreams of his in the next few years. 1 1
BillStime Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 Putin won't stop... and Bonnie and the cult will be cheering him on!
sherpa Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 (edited) Thank goodness for the strength and resolve of the UN to prevent these situations. Edited February 21, 2022 by sherpa typo
Tiberius Posted February 21, 2022 Author Posted February 21, 2022 Gee, what would make anyone thing this is true? Oh ya, that’s stupid standard operating procedure for the KGB “The United States has informed the United Nations it has credible information showing that Moscow is compiling lists of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation,” according to a letter to the U.N. human rights chief obtained by The Washington Post on Sunday night. The letter alleges that Moscow’s post-invasion planning would involve torture, forced disappearances and “widespread human suffering.” It does not describe the nature of the intelligence that undergirds its assessment” https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/20/ukraine-russia-human-rights/
All_Pro_Bills Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Gee, what would make anyone thing this is true? Oh ya, that’s stupid standard operating procedure for the KGB “The United States has informed the United Nations it has credible information showing that Moscow is compiling lists of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation,” according to a letter to the U.N. human rights chief obtained by The Washington Post on Sunday night. The letter alleges that Moscow’s post-invasion planning would involve torture, forced disappearances and “widespread human suffering.” It does not describe the nature of the intelligence that undergirds its assessment” https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/20/ukraine-russia-human-rights/ All this evidence from a letter provided by an anonymous source sent to the Post signed by some guy named V Putin mailed from an address in Langley Virginia. I wish all the girls I knew in High School were as gullible as you are when it comes to believing anything and everything the government puts out. And newsflash: The focus has turned from the whole of Ukraine to the two breakaway provinces in the East. There are several scenarios that can emerge from this but a military occupation of Ukraine seems out of the realm of possibility.
The Frankish Reich Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, BillStime said: I don't even recognize who these Republican would-be presidents are anymore. Obviously a recent interview because we have the newly emaciated Pompeo on camera. Why, in this current situation, would you ever say "I have enormous respect" for Putin? Pompeo was Sec of State - he knows that words matter. Somehow these proto-candidates think that there's something wrong with simply saying that Putin's territorial ambitions threaten world peace and security. 2
The Frankish Reich Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 39 minutes ago, BillStime said: Putin won't stop... and Bonnie and the cult will be cheering him on! Re: the Baltics. There's something very similar about China (somehow the new villain of the right wing, with a more tepid response from the left) and Russia (vice versa). Both dictatorships are paranoid about countries/regions showing that economic success and democratization are fully compatible. Hong Kong and Taiwan prove that with respect to core China, so they must be suppressed. For people who haven't been paying attention, take a look at Estonia. A remarkable success story - in some respects, they're building a whole new style of libertarian government coupled with economic freedom. Putin says they're really Russian, and depending on what that means, maybe they are. But if they are, they are a symbol of how a Russian people can overcome their past and actually become a leader in innovation in government and economy. Those are dangerous thoughts when you're a dictator; they could spread soon enough to your own people ("hey, if Estonia can have those kinds of freedoms and experience an economic boom, why not us?"). 1
sherpa Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: I don't even recognize who these Republican would-be presidents are anymore. Obviously a recent interview because we have the newly emaciated Pompeo on camera. Why, in this current situation, would you ever say "I have enormous respect" for Putin? Pompeo was Sec of State - he knows that words matter. Somehow these proto-candidates think that there's something wrong with simply saying that Putin's territorial ambitions threaten world peace and security. I don't think you are interpreting what he said correctly. Putin is very shrewd and savvy, and he knows how to play the game. What h also is is a mischief maker trying to forge a legacy as time runs out, and he has never gotten over the gross failure of the insanely incompetent regime he worked for.
snafu Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: Now: Putin is moving into the second phase of that theory in action. Eastern Ukraine (we're not sure how much yet) is now considered historically and culturally "Russia" and he intends to annex it under Russian law. Of course, if Ukraine resists with military force, he'll have his casus belli and may use that to overthrow the entire Ukrainian government by force. Ukraine should agree to this only if there's an international peacekeeping force stationed in those provinces to ensure that they're not annexed as Russian territory.
ALF Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: And newsflash: The focus has turned from the whole of Ukraine to the two breakaway provinces in the East. There are several scenarios that can emerge from this but a military occupation of Ukraine seems out of the realm of possibility. If people in those two provinces want they can immigrate to Russia . Those in Crimea should also immigrate to Russia , both places belong to Ukraine no matter what Putin says. 1
reddogblitz Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: I have some friends from the Baltic states, and they know very well that they're next. Not to sound, umm, uncaring, but ... Eastern Ukraine alone really isn't that big a deal. But we've seen that Putin's bizarre dream of reconstituting the Soviet Empire comes with a long timeline. He's coming close to annexing (ostensibly by choice) Belarus and maybe Kazakhstan, and by taking a large swath of Ukraine (by might). As Biden said about something very different about a dozen years ago, "this is a big effin' deal." How the US, Europe, and the rest of the world respond now may very well dictate how far Putin takes those Soviet dreams of his in the next few years. The Domino Theory. This is what got us into Viet Nam. Better to fight them over there than over here. Come on, man.
BillStime Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Doc said: Are the 80's still calling? No... The more you know!
reddogblitz Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 19 hours ago, Tiberius said: Story of the weapons we have shipped to Ukraine https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.amp.html Great. I just hope they don't end up being used against us like in Afghanistan and Iraq. 3
sherpa Posted February 21, 2022 Posted February 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: Great. I just hope they don't end up being used against us like in Afghanistan and Iraq. I would bet that contacts have already been made to acquire some. Ever wonder what the CIA was doing in Benghazi prior to the embassy attack? 1
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