Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦

[SoCal Deek]

I can’t imagine why Russia would be concerned about NATO expanding right up to their doorstep. Nothing to see there. 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

Yes or no... are we in a proxy war with Russia right now?

I'd say yes 

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I can’t imagine why Russia would be concerned about NATO expanding right up to their doorstep. Nothing to see there. 

Authoritarian governments want to control all around them, ya. 

[ArdmoreRyno]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I can’t imagine why Russia would be concerned about NATO expanding right up to their doorstep. Nothing to see there. 

 

Hell, we entered WWI because Germany offered part of the US back to Mexico if they joined the war. Imagine if Russia did that today? We almost went to WWIII because of the USSR trying to move resources into Cuba. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

Hell, we entered WWI because Germany offered part of the US back to Mexico if they joined the war. Imagine if Russia did that today? We almost went to WWIII because of the USSR trying to move resources into Cuba. 

These people don’t care. They’re in the business of war and war needs customers. 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

Hell, we entered WWI because Germany offered part of the US back to Mexico if they joined the war. Imagine if Russia did that today? We almost went to WWIII because of the USSR trying to move resources into Cuba. 

We did not enter WW1 because of the Zimmerman note. They were sinking our ships and the future of democracy was in Europe and the world were in peril 

 

We occupy the moral high ground on Russia. Our human rights record is miles ahead of theirs. . 

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

These people don’t care. They’re in the business of war and war needs customers. 

This is just so stupid 

[ArdmoreRyno]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

We did not enter WW1 because of the Zimmerman note. They were sinking our ships and the future of democracy was in Europe and the world were in peril 

 

We occupy the moral high ground on Russia. Our human rights record is miles ahead of theirs. . 

This is just so stupid 

 

It was a HUGE reason we finally entered. 

 

But the question still remains; If Canada or Mexico was heavily influenced by Russia, we'd have some major problems going on as a result. If Russia was sending military supplies to those countries? Think about it. 

 

I'm not saying Putin and Russia isn't in the wrong but stop with the head in the sand in regards to our part. We played a HUGE part in all this. 

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

 

This is just so stupid 

Mind telling us what line of work you’re in Tibs. Inquiring minds want to know.

[GaryPinC]

7 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

My argument is if you want to achieve some objective and avoid conflict you need to negotiate.  As I'm not an expert on Russia affairs or some sort of profiler, I don't know what Putin thinks. 

 

But your "we should be able to do what we want" thinking is like the guy that has a 200 foot deep backyard that puts his kids jungle gym and his tool shed 199 feet away from his back door and one foot inside the property line.  Placing them about 20 feet from the neighbors back porch while seeing nothing wrong with it.  Or one of my buddies neighbors that decided it was okay to divert the water flow into his backyard which floods his yard every time it rains.    

 

After all, everyone can do whatever they want!  But real life don't work that way.  There are actions and reactions and consequences.  I've witnessed, or been a party to, situations where somebody thought they could do whatever they wanted and ended up getting the crap kicked out of them.  And as far as countries go, I'll wager anyone expressing the idea Ukraine can do what they want will have a slightly different opinion about the Saudi's doing "what they want to do" with regards to lowering oil production levels.  One lesson is where you stand depends on where you sit.  Life's all about perspective.  And our official perspective is governed by our own interests.    

I certainly don't know what Putin thinks, I would just offer up the perspective that Russia has historically prioritized maintaining a buffer zone between Europe and itself:

 

https://imrussia.org/en/analysis/3382-the-ballot,-not-the-bullet-russia’s-pursuit-of-a-geopolitical-buffer-zone.

 

In this day and age, buffer zones should be unnecessary, thanks to nuclear weapons.  But I agree with this article that Putin desires them for political purposes, to preserve his authoritarian form of government.  No bordering a democracy whenever possible.

 

He seized Crimea and supported the Donbas separatist movement in 2014 when Viktor Yanukovych was removed from power and a more democratic system took hold.

 

Here's what he wanted the US and NATO to do to avoid the Ukraine invasion:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/russia-demands-us-ukraine.html

He wanted NATO and nuclear weapons out of all Eastern European countries.  Preserving somewhat of a buffer zone but leaving these countries vulnerable to the Russian military.

 

So, if Putin gets what he wants, a large number of bordering countries don't sleep at night fearing future authoritarian expansion.  Since we didn't cave, he decided to take what he wants.

 

Putin knows we're not willing to give him a buffer zone, because it entails giving land from democratic countries.  We know he's at least bent on creating a buffer zone, at worst reconstituting the old empire.

 

Until one side or the other is in a dire situation, what is there to talk about?

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It’s how disputes are settled every day everywhere. Both sides go into the discussions sure they are 100% in the right and by the end of the process a solution is reached that isn’t mutual destruction. This doesn’t work on the first day of a dispute but after length of time and the amount of death and destruction we’ve seen in this one (to pretty much a back and forth stalemate) you’d be shocked at how quickly this would be over. 

Except this isn't some stupid, impromptu schoolyard fight.  This has been brewing since before 2014.  On one side is a free country that doesn't want to give up their land and resources, the other is a dictator that is adamant in what he wants to the point of nuclear strikes.

 

My thought for a solution is to hold internationally monitored, secured elections in the Donbas, Crimea, Kherson, etc and let the residents decide.  But would Putin abide and respect any results he didn't like?

[Coffeesforclosers]

21 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

 

Until one side or the other is in a dire situation, what is there to talk about?

 

Exactly. @B-Man posted a great article on how wars end, which a bunch of people in this thread didn't bother to read.  It makes this point.

 

Ukraine is winning right now, so they're not going to bother negotiating, because they aren't stupid . Russia is losing right now, and negotiating would only compound how weak they look. All of Putin's foreign policy leverage comes from intimidation. So negotiating is a no-go.

 

So here we are, 8 months into a 4 day war. Which makes me sad, because even the Tsar knew when to take his L and try and see the big picture. But that was in 1905, and nobody predicted that Japan would sink the whole Russian navy and smash every Russian army they fought. Russia was the 2nd greatest land power in the world at the time, and it was supposed to be a walkover. Eerily familiar. 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

Except this isn't some stupid, impromptu schoolyard fight.  This has been brewing since before 2014.  On one side is a free country that doesn't want to give up their land and resources, the other is a dictator that is adamant in what he wants to the point of nuclear strikes.

 

My thought for a solution is to hold internationally monitored, secured elections in the Donbas, Crimea, Kherson, etc and let the residents decide.  But would Putin abide and respect any results he didn't like?

Gary.....remember that we don't know the age, experience, and maturity level of everyone on here, so pardon me for the schoolyard analogy....but indeed it somewhat does apply. (everything you learned, you learned in kindergarten). Mediation is used to resolve all sorts of disputes. In fact, it is really, really rare that ANY other form of dispute resolution ever works. I believe these two combatants have now punched themselves out.  The front line of this war has moved back and forth now for months and months with neither side making any significant progress.  This is the exact time in any conflict when BOTH sides are generally ready to resolve it.  Of course, they aren't going to say that in public because there's a ton of pride involved for both, but I'm betting both are dying to have someone step in.

Edited October 14, 2022 by SoCal Deek

[Coffeesforclosers]

 

Here's a gif of how the front lines have changed.  It goes from February 24 to October 4th.  The Ukrainians are doing pretty well for being taken basically by surprise by a country that outnumbers them 5 to 1.   The summer was very rough on them before they got a hold of MLRS/HIMARS, but they've been doing pretty well ever since.

 

There's a great article on the defense of Kyiv early in the war here: Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital by WaPo.

 

It's a great read for anybody who's interested in what good leadership, a motivated, armed citizenry and a motivated, skillful army can do against a dumb, arrogant opponent.  The language is a little breathless, so keep an even keel.

 

 

[OrangeBills]

12 hours ago, Tiberius said:

Why? Ukraine is a sovereign nation and do what they want 

 

Great, then needless WW3

 

Enjoy yourself.

[SoCal Deek]

10 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

Here's a gif of how the front lines have changed.  It goes from February 24 to October 4th.  The Ukrainians are doing pretty well for being taken basically by surprise by a country that outnumbers them 5 to 1.   The summer was very rough on them before they got a hold of MLRS/HIMARS, but they've been doing pretty well ever since.

 

There's a great article on the defense of Kyiv early in the war here: Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital by WaPo.

 

It's a great read for anybody who's interested in what good leadership, a motivated, armed citizenry and a motivated, skillful army can do against a dumb, arrogant opponent.  The language is a little breathless, so keep an even keel.

 

 

Thanks for sharing that. It’s really pretty cool! 

[BillStime]

#winning

 

 

[GaryPinC]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:52 PM, SoCal Deek said:

Gary.....remember that we don't know the age, experience, and maturity level of everyone on here, so pardon me for the schoolyard analogy....but indeed it somewhat does apply. (everything you learned, you learned in kindergarten). Mediation is used to resolve all sorts of disputes. In fact, it is really, really rare that ANY other form of dispute resolution ever works. I believe these two combatants have now punched themselves out.  The front line of this war has moved back and forth now for months and months with neither side making any significant progress.  This is the exact time in any conflict when BOTH sides are generally ready to resolve it.  Of course, they aren't going to say that in public because there's a ton of pride involved for both, but I'm betting both are dying to have someone step in.

In my experience, people of any age, experience, and maturity tend to respond to how you approach/address them.  

 

There's a lot of wisdom in what you're saying, and key is the fact that both sides have to want to resolve it through compromise.  I have to disagree with you that both sides are ready to resolve it.  Further,  even if both sides were to cease-fire right now to negotiate, I don't trust Putin to negotiate in good faith, instead using it to regroup.  To avoid the initial conflict, his terms for the entirety of Eastern Europe were not remotely realistic, just insincere.  Zelensky has been pretty consistent about Nato and even at August's end was open to negotiate the Donbas/Crimea region:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

 

This should have sparked mediation and I guarantee you mediating diplomats reached out and made the effort with the Russians.  I think Putin's going to try a Stalingrad-style assault on Kviv from Belarus, if that fails then maybe he might negotiate if he doesn't nuke.  He's simply not and has not been interested in peacefully resolving this dispute through compromise.

 

I also disagree that rarely any dispute is solved without mediation.  World War II in both theaters was enduringly resolved just fine without mediation.  Nations have disputes all the time that they resolve without mediation.  Disputes in personal lives, same.  But both parties have to be interested in compromise and we just don't have that here yet.

 

"All I Really Need to Learn, l Learned in Kindergarten" is a great essay about how to live your life but not much help with conflict resolution I'm afraid. 

 

[Tiberius]

On 10/14/2022 at 3:02 PM, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

It was a HUGE reason we finally entered. 

 

But the question still remains; If Canada or Mexico was heavily influenced by Russia, we'd have some major problems going on as a result. If Russia was sending military supplies to those countries? Think about it. 

 

I'm not saying Putin and Russia isn't in the wrong but stop with the head in the sand in regards to our part. We played a HUGE part in all this. 

It was noise, nothing more. Germany was not going to help Mexico do the impossible. 

 

We reacted to unrestricted submarine warfare against our merchant ships 

[SoCal Deek]

10 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

In my experience, people of any age, experience, and maturity tend to respond to how you approach/address them.  

 

There's a lot of wisdom in what you're saying, and key is the fact that both sides have to want to resolve it through compromise.  I have to disagree with you that both sides are ready to resolve it.  Further,  even if both sides were to cease-fire right now to negotiate, I don't trust Putin to negotiate in good faith, instead using it to regroup.  To avoid the initial conflict, his terms for the entirety of Eastern Europe were not remotely realistic, just insincere.  Zelensky has been pretty consistent about Nato and even at August's end was open to negotiate the Donbas/Crimea region:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

 

This should have sparked mediation and I guarantee you mediating diplomats reached out and made the effort with the Russians.  I think Putin's going to try a Stalingrad-style assault on Kviv from Belarus, if that fails then maybe he might negotiate if he doesn't nuke.  He's simply not and has not been interested in peacefully resolving this dispute through compromise.

 

I also disagree that rarely any dispute is solved without mediation.  World War II in both theaters was enduringly resolved just fine without mediation.  Nations have disputes all the time that they resolve without mediation.  Disputes in personal lives, same.  But both parties have to be interested in compromise and we just don't have that here yet.

 

"All I Really Need to Learn, l Learned in Kindergarten" is a great essay about how to live your life but not much help with conflict resolution I'm afraid. 

 

Well lets keep fighting another useless war then….nothing to see here. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

At this point we need to push much harder for negotiations of a peaceful ceasefire. Nothing good is going to come from continued war.

[ArdmoreRyno]

17 hours ago, Tiberius said:

It was noise, nothing more. Germany was not going to help Mexico do the impossible. 

 

We reacted to unrestricted submarine warfare against our merchant ships 

 

Think you're missing my point. Completely.