B-Man Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 POOR INTELLIGENCE, POOR PLANNING, POOR EXECUTION: We Think We Know Why Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Has Stopped. According to the British Ministry of Defense, the perpetual logistical woes of the Russian military continue to beset the faltering Russian invasion. Russian commanders are also reluctant or incapable of cross-country maneuvering, and, as a result, they are restricted on roads, making the life of the Ukrainian defenders that much easier. The Ukrainian land is also fighting the invaders. Melting snow is giving way to bogs of mud that can stop even the most advanced tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Indeed, the supply problems of the invading Russian forces are so serious that frontline units lack basic essentials, such as food, ammunition, and fuel. “Russian forces have made minimal progress this week. . . Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large number of troops to defend their own supply lines. This is severely limiting Russia’s offensive potential. . .Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities. No matter how this thing ends, Russia comes out of it weaker — and weaker looking — in every way. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/we-think-we-know-why-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-stopped/ 1 1
Tiberius Posted March 21, 2022 Author Posted March 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, B-Man said: POOR INTELLIGENCE, POOR PLANNING, POOR EXECUTION: We Think We Know Why Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Has Stopped. According to the British Ministry of Defense, the perpetual logistical woes of the Russian military continue to beset the faltering Russian invasion. Russian commanders are also reluctant or incapable of cross-country maneuvering, and, as a result, they are restricted on roads, making the life of the Ukrainian defenders that much easier. The Ukrainian land is also fighting the invaders. Melting snow is giving way to bogs of mud that can stop even the most advanced tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Indeed, the supply problems of the invading Russian forces are so serious that frontline units lack basic essentials, such as food, ammunition, and fuel. “Russian forces have made minimal progress this week. . . Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large number of troops to defend their own supply lines. This is severely limiting Russia’s offensive potential. . .Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities. No matter how this thing ends, Russia comes out of it weaker — and weaker looking — in every way. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/we-think-we-know-why-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-stopped/ Communications is also a huge problem for Russians. It seems like the six generals that have been terminated might have been tracked by unsecured communications the Ukrainians zeroed in on 2
John Adams Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 31 minutes ago, sherpa said: He isn't effectively using a nuclear weapon. Nuclear weapons have long lasting radiation effects, and he doesn't need to. Agreed of course. How about chemical or bio? And he's leveling a city. 31 minutes ago, sherpa said: If he did, that would be the end of this Russian regime. How so? Russia is bombing civilians pretty indiscriminately at this point and he is still in power. 31 minutes ago, sherpa said: Yes, a retaliatory nuclear strike is worth it, if they launched a nuc against a US target. This aint that. So you're saying Russia could nuke Mariupol and not risk military strikes (nuclear or conventional) in Russia? I agree.
sherpa Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 I am not stating anything other than my view. Chemical or bio would have a similar but not quite response as a nuc. It is a bit easier to hide those. Using a nuc changes the entire calculus. It hasn't been done wince WWII, and it isn't at all necessary or even desirous to achieve his objectives. I'm not going to speculate on a response to delivering a nuc to a Ukrainian city, since I think it is an unreasonable suggestion, but it would be the end of his regime.
John Adams Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, sherpa said: It hasn't been done wince WWII, and it isn't at all necessary or even desirous to achieve his objectives. I'm not going to speculate on a response to delivering a nuc to a Ukrainian city, since I think it is an unreasonable suggestion, but it would be the end of his regime. The clock ticks ever louder. And this discussion has never been more timely than it is now. Russia uses a nuke. Then what? Edited March 21, 2022 by John Adams
sherpa Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 Positioning them a vast difference from using one.
John Adams Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 50 minutes ago, sherpa said: Positioning them a vast difference from using one. Thanks Captain. In other news, and this is low by you would think 2-3x: 1
sherpa Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 There is no reason to send US submarines into Russian waters, and by the way, all US submarines are nuclear powered. I get that there are people here who think trump is kind of special. He is a total idiot regarding military issues, and it would be best for all involved if he departed the political environment and simply faded away. 1 1
Coffeesforclosers Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, John Adams said: Thanks Captain. In other news, and this is low by you would think 2-3x: So 1/8 of the initial invasion force is in hospitals or pushing up daisies. Guess that explains why the Russians are pulling in troops from the far east and mobilizing 17 year old cadets. Edited March 22, 2022 by Coffeesforclosers
John Adams Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said: So 1/8 of the initial invasion force is in hospitals or pushing up daisies. Guess that explains why the Russians are pulling in troops from the far east and mobilizing 17 year old cadets. What it does is make Russia that much more desperate and unpredictable. This guy has a plan. The nuclear subs in Russian waters idea came later I guess.
Tiberius Posted March 22, 2022 Author Posted March 22, 2022 Biden warns a cyber attack is coming. Attack https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/biden-russia-cyber-activity/index.html Biden said, "The magnitude of Russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential and it's coming." I guess we lay down and take that, too 1
Coffeesforclosers Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, BillStime said: Michael Flynn is pretty much in "Who the ***** is Michael Flynn and why should anybody care?" territory. His takes are all the same. Putin is invincible, Russian catastrophes are really 5D chess, Ukraine is collapsing and final victory is only a matter of time yadda yadda yadda. If he were paid by Custer, he'd be saying Sitting Bull is a coward, Crazy Horse is a pedophile, and being shot once in the chest and once in the head were part of Custer's 1000 IQ plan to win the Little Bighorn. 2
Chef Jim Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 3 hours ago, Tiberius said: Biden warns a cyber attack is coming. Attack https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/biden-russia-cyber-activity/index.html Biden said, "The magnitude of Russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential and it's coming." I guess we lay down and take that, too We, China and Russia have likely been engaged in cyber warfare for years. And if we are as prepared for any additional attacks as I think we are and Biden did not come out and assure us of this that is a sign of poor leadership.
Coffeesforclosers Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 One more thing. The Ukrainian constitution forbids the government from ceding any Ukrainian territory to another country without a national referendum in favor. So even if he wanted to, which he doesn't, Zelensky couldn't simply John Hancock a treaty giving Donbas and Crimea to Russia. Which is problem for the Russians, mainly because they assume all elections are always a sham where you count the votes until Tsar Vladimir the Insane's side wins. 1 1
John Adams Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: We, China and Russia have likely been engaged in cyber warfare for years. And if we are as prepared for any additional attacks as I think we are and Biden did not come out and assure us of this that is a sign of poor leadership. You think the federal government can protect private companies from hacking? Because what Biden did was warn everyone but especially the private sector. Don't worry: Putin wouldn't let PPP fall. Too many allies here. Just now, Coffeesforclosers said: One more thing. The Ukrainian constitution forbids the government from ceding any Ukrainian territory to another country without a national referendum in favor. So even if he wanted to, which he doesn't, Zelensky couldn't simply John Hancock a treaty giving Donbas and Crimea to Russia. Which is problem for the Russians, mainly because they assume all elections are always a sham where you count the votes until Tsar Vladimir the Insane's side wins. Zelensky said as much a couple days ago. I wonder if Zelensky will be able to promise that the west will lift sanctions. Russia will settle for: territory, Ukraine not to join NATO, no reparations, no sanctions. The last will be tough to give up but even if countries do, business is not flowing from the west back into Russia. China, however...
Chef Jim Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, John Adams said: You think the federal government can protect private companies from hacking? Yes….. https://www.ncsl.org/research/telecommunications-and-information-technology/cybersecurity-legislation-2021.aspx
Coffeesforclosers Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 Ha, something I didn't know. Ukraine has legally been under China's nuclear umbrella since 2013. I guess China never envisioned Ukraine being anything other than Russia-aligned. 19 minutes ago, John Adams said: You think the federal government can protect private companies from hacking? Because what Biden did was warn everyone but especially the private sector. Don't worry: Putin wouldn't let PPP fall. Too many allies here. Zelensky said as much a couple days ago. I wonder if Zelensky will be able to promise that the west will lift sanctions. Russia will settle for: territory, Ukraine not to join NATO, no reparations, no sanctions. The last will be tough to give up but even if countries do, business is not flowing from the west back into Russia. China, however... Last I read, Ukraine's position was now 1991 Borders or no deal. So basically telling Russia "You have to nuke us, conquer us completely, or admit defeat. The Salami Tactics aren't working anymore". 1
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