All_Pro_Bills Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 32 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Well, someone wants to attack Taiwan and is watching this situation closely Well, I can't say with 100% certainty who is lying and who isn't because I have no access to intelligence and security information and data. And I suspect neither do you. So how do you know for certain who is telling the truth? It ultimately comes down to what you believe and not what you know. That's my point here. Other than I evaluate the validity of anything and everything said by all the players in this conflict with skepticism.
Tiberius Posted March 15, 2022 Author Posted March 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Well, I can't say with 100% certainty who is lying and who isn't because I have no access to intelligence and security information and data. And I suspect neither do you. So how do you know for certain who is telling the truth? It ultimately comes down to what you believe and not what you know. That's my point here. Other than I evaluate the validity of anything and everything said by all the players in this conflict with skepticism. Oh, you just want to throw doubt on our side. 1
Coffeesforclosers Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 1 hour ago, BillStime said: idiots All this talk of "interests", does anybody that uses this word have a clue what they are talking about? It's a buzzword, it's jargon, it's a BS term people repeat to sound smart. Russia's an authoritarian state and Tsar Vladimir the Insane decides what it does. In theory. Whether his people follow the orders, or his government executes them effectively, or whether his enemies decide to kick him square in the balls, that's another thing entirely. "Russia" does not have "interests". People in power in Russia have made choices based on information, and mannnny of them were very, very wrong. But I guess Michael Flynn thinks it's not in America's "interest" to get Russia thinking "This is what happens to you if you invade a country we like. Do you *really* want to invade a country legally allied with?". You know, like Tsar Vladimir the Insane said he would do whenever he wanted to before all this started so he could rebuild the Russian Empire? Gee whiz, I wonder how Flynn conveniently forgot about that. 2
Motorin' Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 24 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Well, I can't say with 100% certainty who is lying and who isn't because I have no access to intelligence and security information and data. And I suspect neither do you. So how do you know for certain who is telling the truth? It ultimately comes down to what you believe and not what you know. That's my point here. Other than I evaluate the validity of anything and everything said by all the players in this conflict with skepticism. It could be a smear campaign. But Russia seems a bit desperate, they are actively recruiting foreign fighters while Russia and China met to sign a pact that their partnership knows "no limits" just weeks before the Ukraine invasion. If I had to guess, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Russia has asked China for support. And China wants to remain "neutral" and they don't like the fact that we can listen to their secure coms... 1
All_Pro_Bills Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Motorin' said: It could be a smear campaign. But Russia seems a bit desperate, they are actively recruiting foreign fighters while Russia and China met to sign a pact that their partnership knows "no limits" just weeks before the Ukraine invasion. If I had to guess, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Russia has asked China for support. And China wants to remain "neutral" and they don't like the fact that we can listen to their secure coms... I have a couple theories but it seems pretty clear there's a lot more going on than the fate of Ukraine. From China's perspective they probably see Russia as a proxy probing Western responses and actions to aggression. I think the sanctions, asset freezing, and seizure actions have got them concerned. Concerned enough to take action and join this conflict? Doubtful. But concerned enough to poke around and feel things out. I don't see any immediate move against Taiwan. They'd need to pull off a complex amphibious and air attack without having any combat experience at that task. From Taiwan's perspective the idea would be to sink all their troop carriers in the Straits before they come ashore. With U.S. support China's move could be a military disaster and a source of embarrassment for a regime which treasures the projection of control and competence. Interestingly, though is China suddenly engaging in on again, off again high level discussions with the Saudi's over oil payments in Yuan. Saudi leadership appears to be unhappy with the Biden administration especially regarding its stance on Iran. A move to change the payment process for oil would put a major hurt on the Petrodollar system and anyone familiar with that payment system understand the implications. Something that might be scaring China is the term I saw thrown around regarding sanctions and weaponizing the U.S. dollar and that is "un-hedgeable confiscation risks". So I expect China's main purpose now is to erode U.S. financial control and dominance rather than taking any actions to engage in military confrontations. Edited March 15, 2022 by All_Pro_Bills 1
Doc Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said: I heard a military pundit on the radio here in SoCal yesterday and he made a ton of sense. His assessment was that Putin saw an opening and he took it. He’s approaching 70 years old and he wants a legacy of putting Mother Russia back together before he leaves the stage. He’s not immortal. He watched the US exit Afghanistan and figured, rightly so, that we had no appetite for another foreign conflict. So…he went for it. Sure seems like an accurate take to me. I have no doubt about any of this. The thing is, instead of cementing his legacy, he doomed it. 1
SoCal Deek Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, Doc said: I have no doubt about any of this. The thing is, instead of cementing his legacy, he doomed it. That’s the typical Americanized short term view. I’m guessing he’s thinking the long term play. He’s hoping to go down as the man that recaptured traditional Russian territory. This is a legacy play for him…or at least that’s what the pundit was surmising.
Coffeesforclosers Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: That’s the typical Americanized short term view. I’m guessing he’s thinking the long term play. He’s hoping to go down as the man that recaptured traditional Russian territory. This is a legacy play for him…or at least that’s what the pundit was surmising. Makes sense. He thinks the EU and NATO are all just US puppet states, and that democracies are inherently "weak", whatever that means, and morally corrupt. But at the same time, his country is being brought to it's knees by resistance in a land they thought would welcome them as liberators. And while America hasn't committed a single soldier, plane or ship into action with Russian forces. I'm not really going to by the whole "Putin has a master plan, this all just looks like a trainwreck because that's what he wants us to think" angle. Edited March 15, 2022 by Coffeesforclosers
Warcodered Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said: I heard a military pundit on the radio here in SoCal yesterday and he made a ton of sense. His assessment was that Putin saw an opening and he took it. He’s approaching 70 years old and he wants a legacy of putting Mother Russia back together before he leaves the stage. He’s not immortal. He watched the US exit Afghanistan and figured, rightly so, that we had no appetite for another foreign conflict. So…he went for it. Sure seems like an accurate take to me. If that's what he thought then he's an idiot, we were never going to directly fight Russia in Ukraine, that's never realistically been on the table. 1
SoCal Deek Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said: Makes sense. He thinks the EU and NATO are all just US puppet states, and that democracies are inherently "weak", whatever that means, and morally corrupt. But at the same time, his country is being brought to it's knees by resistance in a land they thought would welcome them as liberators. And while America hasn't committed a single soldier, plane or ship into action with Russian forces. I'm not really going to by the whole "Putin has a master plan, this all just looks like a trainwreck because that's what he wants us to think" angle. I agree but with all due respect yours is yet another American centric response. Putin doesn’t care how the war looks. He’s trying to swallow up a country. Just like a snake swallows a large rat. It’s ugly going down and looks horrible but once it’s done it’s done and he won’t have to eat again for years. He doesn’t have to worry about media reaction or an election cycle.
sherpa Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 Putin has been out of touch with reality for quite a while. His military isn't anywhere near what he thought it would be. His ability to strike fear is gone, except for the very real threat of nuclear options. A dictator who surrounds himself with people who only tell him what he wants to hear is ultimately ill-informed. The Russian military has been lying and misleading their leaders for years. That's what happens when you are underfunded and need to keep your career on track. This has been suspected for years, and now is grossly obvious to the entire world.
Coffeesforclosers Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 41 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: I agree but with all due respect yours is yet another American centric response. Putin doesn’t care how the war looks. He’s trying to swallow up a country. Just like a snake swallows a large rat. It’s ugly going down and looks horrible but once it’s done it’s done and he won’t have to eat again for years. He doesn’t have to worry about media reaction or an election cycle. No doubt, but it's because Putin, in an odd paradox, also lives in an America-centric world. We're the ones who destroyed the USSR, we're the ones who control the EU, we're the ones who control NATO. He honestly doesn't think their is a truly independent country between Moscow and the East Coast. He also honestly thinks every country that was once part of Russia is now led by a tiny elite of American stooges while its people yearn for the Russian Motherland. He can't frame a view of the world without an American boogieman hiding under every bed. It's like Sherpa said. He's nuts. No one is left to tell the Tsar that he's got no clothes on. 1
Doc Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said: That’s the typical Americanized short term view. I’m guessing he’s thinking the long term play. He’s hoping to go down as the man that recaptured traditional Russian territory. This is a legacy play for him…or at least that’s what the pundit was surmising. Recapturing territory, but at what cost? They may win the battle, but lose the war. 45 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said: Seems like something that could/should have been declared a long time ago.
Chef Jim Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 So it would almost be worth letting Russia have Ukraine. Add the cost of rebuilding to the sanctions and Russia could be totally *****. Sarcasm folks…..mostly.
SoCal Deek Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Doc said: Recapturing territory, but at what cost? They may win the battle, but lose the war. Again....Putin is not thinking about the cost. He is playing the long term legacy game here. They've been fighting over the same patch of desert in the Middle East for centuries. Do any of them worry about the cost? No...that's a short term American perspective.
Doc Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Again....Putin is not thinking about the cost. He is playing the long term legacy game here. They've been fighting over the same patch of desert in the Middle East for centuries. Do any of them worry about the cost? No...that's a short term American perspective. He's not getting Ukraine and it will be a thorn in his side until he dies. He sorely miscalculated how much they wanted to be Russian. 1
SoCal Deek Posted March 15, 2022 Posted March 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Doc said: He's not getting Ukraine and it will be a thorn in his side until he dies. He sorely miscalculated how much they wanted to be Russian. Possibly. Keep in mind I’m only restating an opinion/strategy I heard. It remains to be seen if this pundit is correct.
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