Patriots at Bills: Game Week Thread (v2)

[Success]

"How's the weather?" is a pretty vanilla conversation starter in life.  Here, all future happiness hinges on it.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

This is the Bills Friday injury report

 

We'll see what shows up on Saturday's injury report but from McDermott's interview, sounds like no one will be "Out"

Sounds like Milano will be "Full", Diggs will be "DNP" -vet rest, and Hughes will be "DNP - vet rest"

 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Success said:

"How's the weather?" is a pretty vanilla conversation starter in life.  Here, all future happiness hinges on it.

 

I'm glad no one cared about the weather during the drought. Would've made that 17-year experience all the more worse.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Theirs. They seem to use one every other game. We only seem to use it once a year. 

 

We have 2 on the season (1 each by Beas and by Knox).  Beas failed, Knox was a 2 pt conversion attempt.

Patriots have 3 (2 by Jacobi Meyers and 1 by Kendrick Bourne)

 

I wouldn't be a big fan of these for us if the wx is bad.  Let the guy with the big hands and the cannon on his shoulder throw the ball.

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is the Bills Friday injury report

 

We'll see what shows up on Saturday's injury report but from McDermott's interview, sounds like no one will be "Out"

Sounds like Milano will be "Full", Diggs will be "DNP" -vet rest, and Hughes will be "DNP - vet rest"

 

Word is that Barmore's knee injury has been significantly affecting his run stopping ability. 270 yards given up to Tennessee's backups RBs.

 

I'm hoping it's still bothering him a lot.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

8 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I'm glad no one cared about the weather during the drought. Would've made that 17-year experience all the more worse.

This is true. i never worried about Trent edwards being able to complete a 5-yard checkdown in the wind. 

[Patrick Duffy]

2 hours ago, Rockinon said:

Dane Jackson is going to do well against this dink and dunk team, I think. Going to be interesting because many believe the Bills will roll extra coverage over to help him out. I don't think that is how they are going to play it.  I think they play their game the way they always do and let the kid take his lumps. Really don't believe he'll fail to impress.

I think he should also and along with he is damn good at making tackles which I think will benefit him as well defending those short passes. He could improve with how he bites on double moves at times and he will as he keeps learning and playing.

 

Other than that I feel pretty good about him.

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This is true. i never worried about Trent edwards being able to complete a 5-yard checkdown in the wind. 

I mean, it was more like "wow, the Bills suck. But this weather is fun, right? Snowball fight!!!"

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.rochesterfirst.com/sports/buffalo-bills/lotulelei-and-brown-in-uncharted-territory-after-returning-to-practice/

 

Quote

“I think we just need to see how it goes,” Bills head coach Sean McDermott said. “It’s a little bit of uncharted territory. It’s a little bit individually specific from what I’ve experienced in this year and a half we’ve been going through this so we’ll just see what today looks like.”

 

Over the summer, Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins had a long recovery process after contracting COVID.

 

“It’s a different battle for everybody but anytime you miss time on the football field, the process is different of coming back,” Dawkins said. “It’s going to take a couple reps to get into the fluid of things and to get your body right and actually feel a human body presence. Everybody’s presence is different.”

Dawkins said that even a few months after his COVID experience he does feel different. Not too high or too low but his body isn’t the same as it has been. He’s not sure if it is due to COVID.

 

“Some weeks it takes my body a little longer to recover. Last year I didn’t really have to think about that,” Dawkins added.

 

Maybe as he gets older, Dawkins just needs to focus a bit more on taking care of his body and on his recovery

 

https://www.rochesterfirst.com/sports/buffalo-bills/jackson-not-expected-to-be-tre-white-taking-over-for-bills-all-pro-corner/

 

Quote

“You can’t replace a Tre White. He’s a great player. He’s a great person. We’re going to miss him,” Sean McDermott said. “The challenge is not just Dane’s. It’s everyone’s to raise our game to another level and that’s what we have to do as a team.”

 

Jackson will not be brand new to playing in the Bills defense. He had an interception and a fumble recovery in two starts during his rookie season.

 

“He’s been in this system for a while. He understands the system. He makes plays on the football out here at practice all the time,” Jordan Poyer said. “He’s a guy who’s done it. He’s been in game. He’s made plays. We expect nothing less. There ain’t no pressure on him. He’s gonna go out there and he’s gonna ball.”

 

“We got a lot of confidence in Dane,” McDermott said. “He’s gonna get tested. That’s the reality of the situation at corner when you go out there whether it’s within the game or game to game. He’s aware of that and we expect him to do his job.”

 

McDermott got a question on Thursday about whether he’s worried that Jackson will be pressing trying to completely fill the shoes of Tre White. McDermott said that’s not what he wants when Jackson takes the field on Monday night.

 

“He’s just got to be Dane Jackson, not Tre White,” McDermott said.”

 

[HamptonBillsfan]

On 11/27/2021 at 8:28 AM, No Place To Hyde said:

If the old adage still holds true and you get 3 points just for playing at home, the Bills need to view this as a slap in the face.

 

Neutral field and the the Bills would be .5 against a rookie QB? Insult. I know the Pats D is good. So is ours. Our offense is better and a Monday night game in OP against the Pats basically for the division lead? Place will be unhinged. This will be the most hostile environment Mac has played in. 

The spread is based strictly on the streak the Pats own and our ugly struggles vs Indy and Jax. You're absolutely right in this game being different for the Pats with a hostile crowd on steroids and bad weather conditions. The idea of getting an early lead will be crucial. Looks like a tight, low scoring affair. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We have 2 on the season (1 each by Beas and by Knox).  Beas failed, Knox was a 2 pt conversion attempt.

Patriots have 3 (2 by Jacobi Meyers and 1 by Kendrick Bourne)

 

I wouldn't be a big fan of these for us if the wx is bad.  Let the guy with the big hands and the cannon on his shoulder throw the ball.

 

Not as concerned about the 2 point attempts. The ones I am fearful of are the ones that are deep shots. 

 

So on the season Bills are 0-1

 

Pats are 3/3 for completions of 25, 30 and 15 yards including a 25 yard TD.

 

In 2020 the Pats were 4/4 for 2 TD's and completions of 22, 16, 24 (TD) and 19 (TD) yards. Both TD's thrown by Meyers who is also 2/2 on pass attempts this year. 

 

2020 Bills were 3/3 with 2TD's. Completions by Beasely 20yards (TD), McKenzie 12 yards (Allen TD) and Jaquan Johnson 13 yards. Was the Johnson one a fake punt?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/12/a-star-returns-bills-dt-lotulelei-could-be-key-to-stopping-patriots-rushing-attack.html

 

Quote

A spending spree in free agency, a return of key contributors who opted out one season ago and some strong drafting have the New England Patriots atop the division heading into the Week 13 primetime matchup, but the Bills will look to move back into first place when they host their division rivals on Monday Night Football.

 

Quote

All eyes on Dane Jackson

Buffalo’s secondary is still an area of strength, but the team needs to figure out what they can and cannot do without star cornerback Tre’Davious White. That starts on Monday Night Football when second-year CB Dane Jackson is expected to start opposite veteran Levi Wallace.

Weather conditions may limit passing opportunities in primetime (more on that later), but Jackson will probably get tested at times by Mac Jones and the Patriots offense. Jackson, in his limited opportunities, has made some plays in his young career and the team will need the cornerback to continue this starting on Monday.

 

Quote

Weather may factor into outcome of game

The weather forecast for Monday night’s matchup is not encouraging. Rain, snow and high winds appear in the initial forecast. Those elements could adjust the offensive gameplan for both teams.

 

Gee, ya Think?

Quote

Josh Allen has the arm strength to throw in just about any type of weather, but the Bills would benefit from some sort of run game. On Thanksgiving, Buffalo used Matt Breida and Devin Singletary out of the backfield while making Zack Moss inactive. That could be the game plan again on Monday night.

 

I sincerely think that would be a mistake.  The plan has often been to keep an extra DLman active, or to keep Gillislee active for special teams.

Especially if Gilislee is hindered, I don't think it would be too much to have 3 RB active.   The Bills were hurting against Pittsburgh when they didn't have Moss available (IMO)

[BuffaloBillyG]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/12/a-star-returns-bills-dt-lotulelei-could-be-key-to-stopping-patriots-rushing-attack.html

 

 

 

 

Gee, ya Think?

 

I sincerely think that would be a mistake.  The plan has often been to keep an extra DLman active, or to keep Gillislee active for special teams.

Especially if Gilislee is hindered, I don't think it would be too much to have 3 RB active.   The Bills were hurting against Pittsburgh when they didn't have Moss available (IMO)

I'll bet the farm Gillislee isn't active for the Bills Monday. Gilliam is a whole 'nother story though😝

[Rockinon]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is exactly correct. 

On offense, Bills actually are 6th in the league at rush YPA with 4.6 YPA and Pats 20th in the league with 4.1 YPA. 

On defense, Bills are 1st in the league at 3.9 rush YPA given up, and Pats are 23rd in the league with 4.5 rush YPA given up.

 

There is also some airplay to how great the Pats are on taking away the ball, and how bad the Bills are at giving it away.  But on a total basis, it's actually one freakin' turnover different, and on a per-game basis it's a fractional difference (Bills 1.45 TO/g on offense, Pats 1.25 TO/g). 

 

For turnovers, on a per-drive basis Bills 12.5%, Pats 11.8% on offense and Bills 19.0%, Pats 19.4% on defense.  Now worse is worse, but over an 11 or 12 game sample that may actually not be statistically significant (where's @billsfan1959?)

 

The BIG difference from what I've seen, that may be significant, is penalties, especially on offense.  Both teams 7th for penalties per game on defense, and 22 or 23 for penalty yards per game on defense.  But on offense, the Bills are significantly worse - 27th in the league for penalties per game and 24th for penalty yards per game.  The Patriots are 7th for penalties per game, and 14th for penalty yards per game. The numbers on offense are 7.2 pen/G vs 5.6, and 63 yds vs 52 yds. 

 

I SMDH about the Bills and penalties, because McDermott preaches process, process, process and discipline, discipline, discipline and yet - the results on the field are not what one would like.

 

Anyone got a good source to break down penalties per game by type and position group?

Nice job here. Glad that folks are using percentages instead of totals for the season since NE has one more game played so far. As for penalties, there is a weekly summary about them on Buffalorumblings.com. Not a year to date look, but some really good breakdowns on a week to week basis.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

I'm glad no one cared about the weather during the drought. Would've made that 17-year experience all the more worse.

Well, to be fair, we couldn’t throw the ball effectively during the drought.  
 

In the 90s, we could throw the ball AND run the ball with any team in the league.  There was no need to worry about not being able to pass…..because we could just lean on the run and use play action.  

 

Now that we can pass again….our run game has been meh and we’ve been largely unable to run effectively when we have to run effectively.  Some fear that the weather will limit our best weapon, the arm of 17.  

[Rockinon]

I think NEs ability to stop the run is suspect and that Buffalo's RBs will be effective against them. Also think that will open up passing opportunities for Josh.

[LeGOATski]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Well, to be fair, we couldn’t throw the ball effectively during the drought.  
 

In the 90s, we could throw the ball AND run the ball with any team in the league.  There was no need to worry about not being able to pass…..because we could just lean on the run and use play action.  

 

Now that we can pass again….our run game has been meh and we’ve been largely unable to run effectively when we have to run effectively.  Some fear that the weather will limit our best weapon, the arm of 17.  

Meh, the Bills have been better at running than NE and have a better run defense. 17 also has legs. He's a football player. Our best weapon needs to be able to play football like all the great QBs before him. This isn't arena football or just a game of catch.

[RaoulDuke79]

I haven't watched any Patriots games this year. Have any teams been able to pressure Jones regularly? I think if we can do that we have a good shot at winning providing the we can limit the damage in the run game.

[Rockinon]

5 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

I haven't watched any Patriots games this year. Have any teams been able to pressure Jones regularly? I think if we can do that we have a good shot at winning providing the we can limit the damage in the run game.

I think NE had a couple of games where OL starters were out and Jones struggled. They are back practicing now though. Still, Buffalo does do a pretty good job of pressuring any QB.