Changing the gameplan due to weather

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

This isn’t another weather or dome thread— I promise!
 

in light of what is expected to be extraordinarily windy conditions on MNF, how do you think each team’s roster and gameplan changes, if at all? 
 

Here are a few thoughts I have had:

 

1) patriots defense goes back to man. From everything I have read, the Pats have gone increasingly zone (cover 2 shell, cover 4) over the last several weeks. With heavy wind, I would expect they could revert to man and loaded boxes— taking away the run and everything short and actually giving us the deep stuff.

 

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs. 
 

 

[SoCal Deek]

Put in Lamonica…bombs away! 😉

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs.

I don't know if they do. Don't they have to deactivate 3 for Brown, Star, and Mongo coming back? I guess they could work it somehow if they wanted. Depends who they decide to sit 

[Success]

Daboll is going to be tested in this one. I agree that activating all 3 would be a good idea.

 

The Pats have been playing this game all season, with & without wind.  Short passing, running outside, running inside.  If I'm a Pats fan, I LOVE this forecast.

 

The Bills are the team that has to play against type.  If Daboll is HC worthy, this is the kind of game he proves it.

 

[Albany,n.y.]

Bills run 3 times, get stuffed each time & never run the ball again except on designed QB runs.  Josh passes for 300 yards & runs for 200.  Bills win by 21. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

Daboll is going to be tested in this one. I agree that activating all 3 would be a good idea.

 

The Pats have been playing this game all season, with & without wind.  Short passing, running outside, running inside.  If I'm a Pats fan, I LOVE this forecast.

 

The Bills are the team that has to play against type.  If Daboll is HC worthy, this is the kind of game he proves it.

 

Daboll is my biggest concern. Doesn’t seem like he usually gameplans based on the weather or risk of weather.  In our playoff game against Baltimore

last year— which was very windy— we threw the ball almost 40 times. 

[muppy]

I hate to say it but the horrific winds would imo work more against Allen and the bills than the pats.  The coin toss will be an important decision as always in wny  ......So Field position and scoring TD's also are paramount  because your kicking game will surely be affected. Warmups into the game will be telling how that is going to go.  Im of the "I love the outdoor ambiance but for the benefit of #17 dang a dome would be sweet. I'm torn.

 

GO BILLS

 

m 

[Big Turk]

Looks like the weather forecast is trending in the wrong direction...

 

showers transitioning into snow during the game...wins in the low 20s with higher gusts.

[Doc Brown]

Are the winds supposed to be worse than the Skins game?

[SCBills]

29 minutes ago, Muppy said:

I hate to say it but the horrific winds would imo work more against Allen and the bills than the pats.  The coin toss will be an important decision as always in wny  ......So Field position and scoring TD's also are paramount  because your kicking game will surely be affected. Warmups into the game will be telling how that is going to go.  Im of the "I love the outdoor ambiance but for the benefit of #17 dang a dome would be sweet. I'm torn.

 

GO BILLS

 

m 

Id rather not have this forecast BUT, when teams become one dimensional, McDermott/Frazier’s Defenses have been lights out… see Baltimore Divisional Game, when they were supposed to be the worst case scenario for us.  
 

Can Mac operate a passing offense in those conditions?  If this forecast comes true, we’ll find out.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This isn’t another weather or dome thread— I promise!
 

in light of what is expected to be extraordinarily windy conditions on MNF, how do you think each team’s roster and gameplan changes, if at all? 
 

Here are a few thoughts I have had:

 

1) patriots defense goes back to man. From everything I have read, the Pats have gone increasingly zone (cover 2 shell, cover 4) over the last several weeks. With heavy wind, I would expect they could revert to man and loaded boxes— taking away the run and everything short and actually giving us the deep stuff.

 

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs. 
 

 

 

Moss, Breida and Singletary were all active for the Colts game.  Gilliam was active.  Kumerow was inactive.

 

Pretty sure Moss, Breida and Singletary were also all active for the Dolphins.  (rummage, rummage).  Yes, yes they were and so was Gilliam AND Kumerow - looks like they went with 8 DL instead of 9 that game.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Moss, Breida and Singletary were all active for the Colts game.  Gilliam was active.  Kumerow was inactive.

 

Pretty sure Moss, Breida and Singletary were also all active for the Dolphins.  (rummage, rummage).  Yes, yes they were and so was Gilliam AND Kumerow - looks like they went with 8 DL instead of 9 that game.

i don’t think Breida got touches in that dolphins game? And I blocked out the colts game from my mind—haha! 

 

i do think though, we will see those guys back there together. We did a little of that in a game earlier in the year when Moss and DS were in the backfield together. And given that Gilliam is Gimpy, I think it makes

more sense. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i don’t think Breida got touches in that dolphins game? And I blocked out the colts game from my mind—haha! 

 

He got a couple of snaps - literally, 2 snaps on offense, and a handful of snaps on ST.

 

18 snaps in the Colts game, but only touched the ball 7 times

 

11 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

i do think though, we will see those guys back there together. We did a little of that in a game earlier in the year when Moss and DS were in the backfield together. And given that Gilliam is Gimpy, I think it makes

more sense. 

 

 

I'd like to see Gilliam play, but it would make most sense to play healthy guys.

[letsgoteam]

My very short sighted, "hot" take, just yapping without any facts/proof/evidence is that the Bills don't do well accounting for weather into their game plans. 

 

I think back to the Eagles game a few years ago where the wind just seemed to kill their game plan. Same with the Colts game this year. However, I felt it more in that Eagles game. Again, zero evidence, just how I "felt".

[DrPJax]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This isn’t another weather or dome thread— I promise!
 

in light of what is expected to be extraordinarily windy conditions on MNF, how do you think each team’s roster and gameplan changes, if at all? 
 

Here are a few thoughts I have had:

 

1) patriots defense goes back to man. From everything I have read, the Pats have gone increasingly zone (cover 2 shell, cover 4) over the last several weeks. With heavy wind, I would expect they could revert to man and loaded boxes— taking away the run and everything short and actually giving us the deep stuff.

 

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs. 
 

 

Pats are riding a 6 game winning streak.  Don’t see them changing anything.   Allen has the strength to still beat them deep plus they want to stay in zone because they want eyes on the qb.  Esp, a running qb like Allen and they have said playing zone is why they are so good at getting turnovers now and I believe they lead the league in turnover differential..  The zone may not be as deep but I doubt they change what has gotten them to 1st place UNTIL someone proves they can beat them.  They won’t change offense much except now they prob can’t go after whites replacement as much as they might have liked too.   If I was them, I don’t take a chance on a blown man coverage and make Allen prove he can be patient in weather.  Would keep in zone and spy on him and make the Bills prove they can run the ball. 
 

 

Daboll will need to do some counter action, jet sweeps , and like you mentioned , time to bring in the FB and more protection for Allen because Judon and a very good d line are coming. Have to work w Allen on quick release this week, because if he keeps holding the ball , he is in for some bad sacks.   I hope Daboll uses up tempo to mitigate the rush and wear down the d line.   Also try rushing more if Brown is back ?  Not going to be able to spread it out anyhow against that d AND bad weather , so possessions , not turning the ball over is our hope to win. Don’t be afraid to run or punt , and play field position as Bass should have an advantage knowing the winds better.  
 

Get Brieda the ball more, and use. Singletary and Allen running as well.  Moss might be motivated but I’m not sitting Brieda to take another chance on moss showing up unfocused plus I’m not taking the threat of Breidas speed away.  He could take a screen or short wheel route all the way and moss can’t do that.   Even using the threat of Briedas speed with putting him in motion will open things up for Allen. Playing moss just brings the D up tighter as he is no deep threat. I can’t see activating all 3 rbs unless you sit an offensive or defensive lineman.Also  I definitely work on ways to get the ball in Knox’s hands; reverse, screens, shovel pass , jump pass to him by a back in the red zone etc.  
 

I was kidding about the Bills fearing the weather before but if it’s going to be gusty , really it could play in our favor with good play calling It would essentially take away any Pats passing game , but then Mcd/ Frazier have to be willing to run blitz or get out of their 4-2-5 because we will be seeing power running with two tight ends or extra lineman all night. It’s our home so we should be practicing in that weather every day to gain an advantage in the short passing game to augment our anemic running.and keep drilling Josh that in this situation  punting or throwing it away is better than ints!  Going to be low scoring, everybody thinking this favors the pats.  However, knowing what’s expected , no excuse we can’t adjust our D and O play calling to our advantage. If we stick with the same usual strategies, it wouldn’t surprise me if we got blown out playing finesse football.  We know what’s coming so a third loss at home would be a very disappointing coaching season by McD. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Lots of 1 back and empty back sets. The Pats won't be expecting it given the weather conditions that are expected. 

 

Allen has a career high in rushing attempts. 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Buffalo619 said:

A bit off topic or foreshadowing, will missing the playoffs motivate our owners to spend for a dome?

 

That may be the inspiration they need. 

 

 

A dome would cost in the area of $2B extra. 

 

Ain't happening.

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Looks like the weather forecast is trending in the wrong direction...

 

showers transitioning into snow during the game...wins in the low 20s with higher gusts.

BT, I don’t worry about rain or snow as Josh has okayed in the most difficult conditions, but our significant adv. is the  pass.  Mac will not have JA’s arm.  Wind is my concern.  
 

If it remains in the 20’s mph range for wind, that is fine, but if escalating to the 40’s which is hard for any QB, then advantage Patriots.  Their massive O Line, and very productive running game will trump our team.

 

So my early Xmas present would be low mph winds.  I don’t care about anything else.

[Draconator]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

A dome would cost in the area of $2B extra. 

 

Ain't happening.

No. A dome is not going to be an extra $2 Billion Dollars....

[Matt_In_NH]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game,

 

This was done at least once already

Edited December 3, 2021 by mattynh