Mac Jones is this years Baker Mayfield. He came into the NFL at his ceiling?

[vincec]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Simms is definitely an important player in NFL history. Not a big arm but a first round pick; won a lot of games; was pretty much always slightly above league average in terms of performance (as per PFR); and game managed a power running team that relied a lot on TEs. He didn't have a HOF career, but he definitely qualifies for the Hall of the Very Good.

Not sure he was even that good. He was a solid starter who could "drive the Cadillac" that was built around him as Bill Parcells used to say. If that's what he turns out to be then I'm not sure the Pats can win a championship in this day and age with a QB like that.

Edited December 2, 2021 by vincec

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Quietly the Dolphins are playing great football as well particularly on defense and given their upcoming schedule they will certainly be 'in the hunt' in the final weeks of the season.

 

Still not sure about Tua and his long term viability but if the Bills don't win the division again this year it might be some time before that happens again and you can argue they may be the 3rd best team in the division next year depending on what happens in the offseason.

 

I totally disagree with your second sentence. I agree with your first one. It is a shame that they don't play at the Patriots until week 18 because they might be on the beach by then. If the Patriots were going to Miami this week I'd be picking the Dolphins. They have a very good recent record at home against the Patriots. 

[Paul Costa]

31 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I think Tua’s 4 game win streak is challenging Mac. 
 

 

 

This is a great point. Tua has won every game since playing in Buffalo, Without 2 of his top receivers. As they say it’s not who you play it’s when you play them. The Patriots streak is alot of good football and some random luck of playing teams without their best weapons. Monday is Judgement Day. What a great opportunity for the Bills to show how good they are against to me an very overrated team. 

[Jared]

Pats fan here, please be nice.

 

I think too many people are in too much of a rush to judgment on rookies all the time.  Everyone is being hyped as the next HoFer or the next big bust.  Mac is what he is: a high floor guy who is in a situation where the team hasn't had to ask him to single handedly win games.  Comparisons to Tom Brady should be comparisons to 2001 Tom Brady: the guy everyone was calling a system QB and a dink and dunker.  

 

We have no idea where his career will end up, and there are all sorts of trajectories it could take.  He could be already at his ceiling, in which case the "healthy Chad Pennington" comparison may be apt.  But even if true, that is good enough to win a lot of games, and maybe a Super Bowl.  Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer have rings because they played on teams with great defenses and merely "ok" offenses.

 

It isn't impossible that his career could end much higher than it started (see, for example, Brady/Brees).  It also isn't impossible that he gets his shoulder wrecked and turns into a noodle-armed career backup before becoming a D2 college coordinator.  But anyone who claims with certainty that they know where his career is going to go is full of it.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't recall him having a particularly strong arm, but it was a long time ago. You're right that he had a ton of injuries over the course of his career, and by the time he became a household name (mid-80s) he had missed a fair amount of time. That's what I remember, at least. I'm not saying he couldn't make the throws, but he was no Jeff George. 

Yeah, people forget that Pennington's arm was good enough before the torn rotator cuff injury (the worst injury a QB can have; it's what Newton had and he can barely throw now). 

 

Yea figures with the Jets being the Jets but through 2004 Pennington was very good for them and the 2004 season they should've made the AFC title as Pennington drove them to win at the end of the 4th quarter against PIT in the divisional round only for their kicker to miss and then miss again on a Big Ben turnover. That cuff injury unfortunately ended what looked to be a pretty positive career long term, there is 100% a parallel universe when Pennington took on Brady yearly and had some success which limited their dynasty. I would also add the Jets actually developed him well for once as Vinny took the team his first two years. Imagine if they had that patience again.

Edited December 2, 2021 by corta765

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

16 hours ago, Paul Costa said:

Mac Jones is getting comparisons to Tom Brady. I personally don’t see it. I also think he is playing close to his ceiling. I think Mac Jones is playing similar to Baker Mayfield as a rookie. I said the same thing about him. He played well but thought he reached his ceiling. Time has proven that true. I think Mac Jones play proves that Bilichick is a great coach. He’s done a great job this year. Hate to admit it but it’s true. Hopefully he’s throwing a phone around 10:45 Monday night. 😊

 

You probably have a better than 50/50 chance of being correct only because more QB's become flops than franchise types.  I wil lsay in the past 5 years or so that trend is changing as more good QB's are entering the league.  I also am wary of QB's who came from star studded college teams as hard to really know, how much did the QB elevate the play around him or did the other players help elevate the QB.  But also recall Brady didn't look at that great first couple of seasons either, so will see.

 

Think the rubber hits the road in 4 more years when due for his second contract.  That's where teams get in trouble, paying big $$ for QB's that are good, but not great enough to lead a team to the top.  Once the QB is making the big money, can't afford as many shiny new toys around him so the team regresses.  See Tannerhill, Daulton, etc.

[corta765]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You probably have a better than 50/50 chance of being correct only because more QB's become flops than franchise types.  I wil lsay in the past 5 years or so that trend is changing as more good QB's are entering the league.  I also am wary of QB's who came from star studded college teams as hard to really know, how much did the QB elevate the play around him or did the other players help elevate the QB.  But also recall Brady didn't look at that great first couple of seasons either, so will see.

 

Brady was looked at as a decent to good QB 2001-2003. 2004 he took off where you could say "Ok this cat is a different breed" as not only did he win his second SB the year prior, but he had a superb season as NE dominated throughout and then another really nice playoff. Prior to that there was no doubt NE made the right decision to keep him, but he wasn't the best or even Top 5 QB at the time.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, vincec said:

Not sure he was even that good. He was a solid starter who could "drive the Cadillac" that was built around him as Bill Parcells used to say. If that's what he turns out to be then I'm not sure the Pats can win a championship in this day and age with a QB like that.

If you look at his advanced stats (adjusted passing), he was above average (over 100) 12 out of his final 13 years with one year of flat average (100). QB ratings from that era are REALLY deceiving given the numbers we see now, where a 95 rating is mediocre. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SimmPh00.htm

[Jared]

26 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Think the rubber hits the road in 4 more years when due for his second contract.  That's where teams get in trouble, paying big $$ for QB's that are good, but not great enough to lead a team to the top.  Once the QB is making the big money, can't afford as many shiny new toys around him so the team regresses.  See Tannerhill, Daulton, etc.

 

The problem is if you DON'T pay the market rate for a 'starting QB', you run the risk of ending constantly burning draft picks trying to replace the guy you just let walk, or a revolving door of retreads.  There is no guarantee you'll find a Russell Wilson in the 3rd round, or a Dak in the 4th round on your first try.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, Jared said:

Pats fan here, please be nice.

 

I think too many people are in too much of a rush to judgment on rookies all the time.  Everyone is being hyped as the next HoFer or the next big bust.  Mac is what he is: a high floor guy who is in a situation where the team hasn't had to ask him to single handedly win games.  Comparisons to Tom Brady should be comparisons to 2001 Tom Brady: the guy everyone was calling a system QB and a dink and dunker.  

 

We have no idea where his career will end up, and there are all sorts of trajectories it could take.  He could be already at his ceiling, in which case the "healthy Chad Pennington" comparison may be apt.  But even if true, that is good enough to win a lot of games, and maybe a Super Bowl.  Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer have rings because they played on teams with great defenses and merely "ok" offenses.

 

It isn't impossible that his career could end much higher than it started (see, for example, Brady/Brees).  It also isn't impossible that he gets his shoulder wrecked and turns into a noodle-armed career backup before becoming a D2 college coordinator.  But anyone who claims with certainty that they know where his career is going to go is full of it.

 

Good post.  Agree.

 

37 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Think the rubber hits the road in 4 more years when due for his second contract.  That's where teams get in trouble, paying big $$ for QB's that are good, but not great enough to lead a team to the top.  Once the QB is making the big money, can't afford as many shiny new toys around him so the team regresses.  See Tannerhill, Daulton, etc.

 

Way way too early to tell on Mac Jones.

 

He's been a promising QB so far, time will tell if he's maxed out, he'll get "solved", or if he'll be one of the QBs who keeps climbing.

 

I may be an atavist, but there's been a downside to the rookie wage scale where teams can shed even a first-round draft pick during his first contract without big harms.  I thought Tannehill was always a QB you could win with, given a strong run game, good OL, and play action.  Adam Gase and Dowell Loggains tanked all that.  Lo and behold, Tannehill got away from them and he's been winning ever since.  It's not a matter of "shiny new toys" it's a matter of taking care of the toys you have and using them properly vs. holding a "fire sale".

 

Dalton is an interesting story.  I feel he was always a QB that needed a super-star WR to succeed, and also that he's physically too beat up from playing behind that line.

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

16 hours ago, Paul Costa said:

Mac Jones is getting comparisons to Tom Brady. I personally don’t see it. I also think he is playing close to his ceiling. I think Mac Jones is playing similar to Baker Mayfield as a rookie. I said the same thing about him. He played well but thought he reached his ceiling. Time has proven that true. I think Mac Jones play proves that Bilichick is a great coach. He’s done a great job this year. Hate to admit it but it’s true. Hopefully he’s throwing a phone around 10:45 Monday night. 😊

I understand this is your prediction because obviously have a ways to go to get any idea what kind of QB he will be. But not sure what you basing your prediction off of? I don't see how you're comparing him to Baker either really.. 

 

Baker has had really good weapons to throw to, M. Jones while he has solid WR ect around him, not nearly the same talent Baker has had. Also I would argue that the Pats coaching staff are bringing him along very well, when the coaching for Baker imo hasn't been as good.

 

So we'll see how it goes..

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I understand this is your prediction because obviously have a ways to go to get any idea what kind of QB he will be. But not sure what you basing your prediction off of? I don't see how you're comparing him to Baker either really.. 

 

Baker has had really good weapons to throw to, M. Jones while he has solid WR ect around him, not nearly the same talent Baker has had. Also I would argue that the Pats coaching staff are bringing him along very well, when the coaching for Baker imo hasn't been as good.

 

So we'll see how it goes..

 

Mac Jones doesn't have elite talent at WR, but he's got one of the best 1,2 combos at TE in the league with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and he's got solid guys in Bourne and Meyers.

 

A key feature of the NE Patriots system is how well the players are coached.  You can have brilliant, far better players and if they run the wrong route on 1 out of 10 plays and it causes an interception, you might be better off with a lesser guy who does the right thing Every Time.

 

I still maintain this is how Belichick enables consistent team discipline and morale.  No one wants to be sacrificed to Bill's relaxation tub

https://www.theonion.com/bill-belichick-forgets-about-loss-by-relaxing-in-bathtu-1819572993

[Patrick Duffy]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Mac Jones doesn't have elite talent at WR, but he's got one of the best 1,2 combos at TE in the league with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and he's got solid guys in Bourne and Meyers.

 

A key feature of the NE Patriots system is how well the players are coached.  You can have brilliant, far better players and if they run the wrong route on 1 out of 10 plays and it causes an interception, you might be better off with a lesser guy who does the right thing Every Time.

 

I still maintain this is how Belichick enables consistent team discipline and morale.  No one wants to be sacrificed to Bill's relaxation tub

https://www.theonion.com/bill-belichick-forgets-about-loss-by-relaxing-in-bathtu-1819572993

Yeah the TE's are playing well. I still think Baker had way better weapons by quite a bit. Just in response to OP comparing Jones to Baker and hitting their "ceiling" I just don't really get comparing the 2. But that's just me...,

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Mac Jones doesn't have elite talent at WR, but he's got one of the best 1,2 combos at TE in the league with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and he's got solid guys in Bourne and Meyers.

 

A key feature of the NE Patriots system is how well the players are coached.  You can have brilliant, far better players and if they run the wrong route on 1 out of 10 plays and it causes an interception, you might be better off with a lesser guy who does the right thing Every Time.

 

I still maintain this is how Belichick enables consistent team discipline and morale.  No one wants to be sacrificed to Bill's relaxation tub

https://www.theonion.com/bill-belichick-forgets-about-loss-by-relaxing-in-bathtu-1819572993

Also just to mention...Pats OL seem to be doing a pretty good job too. Which of course is a major factor

Edited December 2, 2021 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[Nextmanup]

17 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Its too early to say.  Jones is having a great start and he is very good at doing what he is asked to do thus far.  Have to wait and see how he progresses to answer anything else beyond that.

It's hilarious.  If Josh Allen had had this good of a rookie season, the overwhelming support he would receive here with comparisons to the all-time greats would be suffocating.

 

But because it's a QB on our arch rival, we've already concluded "he's really not that good."

 

Do people really not see the basic psychology underlying these types of observations?

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It's hilarious.  If Josh Allen had had this good of a rookie season, the overwhelming support he would receive here with comparisons to the all-time greats would be suffocating.

 

But because it's a QB on our arch rival, we've already concluded "he's really not that good."

 

Do people really not see the basic psychology underlying these types of observations?

 

 

Yeah, and for some reason many ppl forget about that, which I don't understand how so many disregard the FACT that Josh had one of the absolute worst, if not the worst team surrounding him as a rookie. I honestly feel that Bills 2018 roster was highly likely at least in the top 5 of worst Bills rosters ever. 

 

I have noticed many occasions (on this board and random people in person) that when Josh's name comes up when comparing rookie seasons, many either forget or just refuse to bring that into equation.

 

If Josh had only the slightest average surroundings that year, I have no doubt it would have been significantly better. When your OL is downright awful along with your WR's are beyond terrible, not just 1 or 2 WR's either, I mean every single WR. Later Foster came along and made a couple deep catches which gave hope that maybe 1 small thing could be salvaged from that junk, but nah. 

[Wanderer]

11 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

Mac Jones was drafted at his ceiling. He isn't coachable. He already has good accuracy with a short passing game. He isn't physically mobile (uncoachable) and he has a weak arm (uncoachable). He also is inaccurate throwing down field (which is coachable, but not with a noodle arm). Teams will adjust and he will be a backup for most of his career. How many QBs have the pundits praised in their first year just to watch them fade to rust? Too many to count. 

Arm strength is coachable, both strictly via technique and through strength and conditioning.  Mac's arm is certainly no worse than Brady's was in 2000.  Brady's arm was noticeably better with just one off-season in a pro strength and conditioning program, but didn't become a strength until probably between the 2005 and 2006 seasons.  I'd go so far as to say I'm not 100% certain Belichick makes the move to get Moss if Brady didn't show the arm strength development he showed in 2006.  Brady's arm didn't become a plus/differentiator until after he got sidelined for all of 2008.

 

NFL QBs rarely come into the league with as strong an arm as they will eventually have at their physical peak.  Mac's arm is currently maybe slightly below average.  And frankly, what I've seen of his physique implies that he'll benefit more than is typical from professional strength training.  My guess would be that his arm will end up being slightly above average, but it could be top 25% in a few years.  So I suspect he'll have enough arm for the accuracy on his deep balls to be improved.

 

As to his mobility, it's not a strength, but there are types of mobility.  Pocket mobility is the most important, and is very much coachable.  He's not a statue - he moves around the pocket fairly well, and already better than early in the year.  And his straight line speed is actually not bad.  He ran a 4.7 at the combine.  That speed isn't going to change much, but as he gains experience and improves his diagnosis and processing speed (100% coachable) he will improve in terms of when he chooses to run, and how he does it.  He's already been very successful in scrambling for 4, 9, 13 yards when he needs to.  He needs to improve at sensing the rush (especially from the outside), knowing when to throw the ball away, not hesitating before he takes off, accounting for the speed and athleticism of NFL defenders, knowing when and how to slide, and keeping in mind where the sticks are.  All of those are coachable, and will make his scrambled more efficient and effective.

 

I'll also add that based on what I've seen, the scrambling he has done has been made more effective because defenses don't seem to respect that he can do it.  It becomes just one more bullet in his "take what the defense gives you" gun.

[FilthyBeast]

30 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It's hilarious.  If Josh Allen had had this good of a rookie season, the overwhelming support he would receive here with comparisons to the all-time greats would be suffocating.

 

But because it's a QB on our arch rival, we've already concluded "he's really not that good."

 

Do people really not see the basic psychology underlying these types of observations?

 

 

 

It's because of the deep rooted fear and anxiety all Bills fans have right now that the Pats are back in the SB contender conversation only one year removed from Brady and they may have found a similair QB once again which means many more years of misery ahead especially if Allen might not be as good as some thought after last year.

 

Either way double standards are ridiculous and there is no denying what is happening with Mac Jones and the Patriots right now. And even if the Bills beat the Pats and Jones look terrible it's not going to magically change the long term trajectory for either team.

[Mango]

People keep conflating comparing Jones to Brady and the 2001 Pats to 2021.

 

Jones is no Brady in a bunch of ways. But the low hanging fruit is Brady is the GOAT and MJ10 just showed up. 
 

This team reminds me a bit of that one though. Offense that won’t get off the field and a top 5 defense in just about every category who turns the ball over a lot. 
 

MJ10 is fine. He does enough. That’s about it. But that team very good in a very familiar way. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

The metrics say he's already there when you compare his numbers to the top QB's in the league. And as much drooling there is over the Patriots and Jones right now by the national media just imagine how it's going to look if they come into Buffalo and win which many expect to happen.

The pats are just the fun story right now and they want to reel people in with this possible bucs vs pats super bowl. I wouldn’t read too much into the media spin they crown the browns as super bowl favorites every offseason 😂 As far as x’s and o’s go we are the better team on paper especially with brown Feliciano and star back and a healthy edmunds and should win the game. People are talking like we’re 10 point dogs at home I don’t understand it. Could the pats win…absolutely. But they are underdogs for a reason 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, Jared said:

 

The problem is if you DON'T pay the market rate for a 'starting QB', you run the risk of ending constantly burning draft picks trying to replace the guy you just let walk, or a revolving door of retreads.  There is no guarantee you'll find a Russell Wilson in the 3rd round, or a Dak in the 4th round on your first try.

 

Agree, you're stuck, maybe you don't give him Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen type money, but enough that you have trouble fielding a good enough team around him.  When you have a guy like Rodgers you can get away with not having elite talent around him, "Good talent" is good enough.  Instead if you have the guy who's a good step below Rodgers who needs better talent, but not enough money left to pay everyone that's needed. 

 

But he's still showed enough those first 4 years, you can't just cut him and start over as the next guy may not even be as good as the guy you just cut.  So now 6 or 7 years later, you have nothing to show for it and likely if you're the GM you're now also jobless.