Easiest schedule based on opponents stats from the BN

[First Round Bust]

from todays Buffalo News sports section...easy schedules and some insights in the last paragraph

 

Easiest Schedule of Offenses
Faced in 2021

RkTeamY/Game Avg

1Buffalo 331.6

2L.A. Rams336.4

3N.Y. Jets 337.2

4Jacksonville339.0

5New England340.0

Source: Buffalo News

 

The Bills’ defense is good. How good? The strength of schedule leaves it an open question with six games remaining in the regular season. The loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season to injury adds to the uncertainty.

A week after getting steamrolled by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, the Bills’ defenders were feeling good about bouncing back.

“Just goes to show ... the group of guys that we have in a locker room,” Bills safety Micah Hyde said after the Saints game. “We come off a tough loss like that last week and to bounce back on the short week, it says a lot about guys. But obviously, we got to continue to do this and stay consistent, and looking forward to the next matchup we have.”

“After a loss last week, we knew we needed to come in with high energy and get some momentum early,” said safety Jordan Poyer. “Obviously, this crowd is probably second behind the Buffalo Bills as far as their energy, and we were able to take them out of it early. Just having some huge stops and guys making plays all over the field.”

Entering Monday night’s AFC East showdown, it’s worth questioning New England’s dominance thus far as well. The Patriots’ defense ranks No. 1 in points allowed and No. 4 in yards allowed.

But the AFC East has caught a bit of a break this year in scheduling, facing the NFC South, which is down, and the AFC South, which has two of the worst teams in the NFL in Houston and Jacksonville.

New England has faced the fifth-easiest schedule of offenses, according to average yards gained. The Patriots’ offense has faced the seventh-easiest schedule of defenses.

 

Easiest Schedule of Defenses
Faced in 2021

RkTeamY/Game Avg

1Buffalo365.1

2Denver359.1

3Carolina358.7

4Cincinnati358.3

5Green Bay355.3

 

As with most statistical rankings, there is some nuance in the strength of schedule that is missed. The Bills faced a full-strength Pittsburgh defense in Week 1. The Steelers have had some injuries on defense and now rank 25th in yards allowed. The Bills caught the Titans on one of just three games in which Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones were fully healthy. New England played the Titans minus all three of those stars. Conversely, the Bills played a New Orleans offense on arguably its worst week, decimated by injuries.

 

[Nextmanup]

Interesting that we are 1 and New England is 5! 

 

 

[MJS]

I think that final paragraph is really important to note. A tough team one weak might be a weak team the following weak based on injuries and COVID.

 

Also, some of these teams are ranked so low on offense or defense BECAUSE they faced the Bills or other dominant teams, at least in part.

[LeGOATski]

If you're able to shut out any NFL team like Buf, GB, NE defenses have done this season, then you're ***** good.

 

This strength of schedule stuff is pretty meaningless to me. The truth is on the tape.

[dave mcbride]

13 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think that final paragraph is really important to note. A tough team one weak might be a weak team the following weak based on injuries and COVID.

 

Also, some of these teams are ranked so low on offense or defense BECAUSE they faced the Bills or other dominant teams, at least in part.

Five of the Bills seven wins have come against backup quarterbacks. They are 2-4 against starting QBs. The easiness of the schedule is real. They have feasted on weak opponents.

Edited December 1, 2021 by dave mcbride

[First Round Bust]

yep - last season home game against Pats  - blocked punt was  decisive - and Haack seems more susceptible to blocks than Bono tho he seems to be a better holder for Bass...

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

If you're able to shut out any NFL team like Buf, GB, NE defenses have done this season, then you're ***** good.

 

This strength of schedule stuff is pretty meaningless to me. The truth is on the tape.

It certainly is.  And our defense was ass against the Titans and the Colts.  That being said, we showed up well against the Saints last week.  But the 2021 Saints being led by Trevor Simien and without Alvin Kamara are not scaring anyone.  We have everything in front of us over the next 6 games.  All six games are winnable.  And I think we need to go 5-1 to win the division.  That would put us at 12-5.  Lets hope we are peaking when the playoffs come around.  We won't have Tre.  But the rest of our secondary is all solid if not excellent at safety.  We just need to show more physicality on both lines and we can compete with anyone.  

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

If you're able to shut out any NFL team like Buf, GB, NE defenses have done this season, then you're ***** good.

 

This strength of schedule stuff is pretty meaningless to me. The truth is on the tape.

Accept this isn’t like baseball where you play every team twenty times. The Bills have beaten bad, injured teams. Monday they get to change that script. We all hope they do. 

Edited December 1, 2021 by SoCal Deek

[folz]

At this point, it's all about winning. I'm taking a "get the Dubs and forget about the stats" approach this year!

 

I love crunching stats, etc. And I understand threads like this, you're trying to get a clearer picture of how good/bad teams really are. But this has been the most topsy-turvy season I ever remember (even more so than last year). Injuries, COVID-list players, every good team has one or two terrible loses, 2-win teams upsetting league leaders. It seems like every week there have been 2-3 shocking outcomes. Who knows why, but the league is just less consistent and less predictable this year.

 

Are the Bills as good as their stats/rankings show or have they just played a soft schedule? Same for the Pats? 

 

I don't know that we can get a clear picture this season based on stats. Besides, when the Patriots were winning all of those Super Bowls, did anyone say, well it's because they always have an easy schedule, living in a division with 3 doormat teams, they basically get spotted 6-wins/season? No.

 

One game at a time. First is to flatten the Pats on Monday Night. Just win baby! 

Edited December 1, 2021 by folz

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, First Round Bust said:

yep - last season home game against Pats  - blocked punt was  decisive - and Haack seems more susceptible to blocks than Bono tho he seems to be a better holder for Bass...

 

The blocked punt was in 2019's home game. While you could point to the blocked punt as the decisive play, there were other factors such as Allen throwing 3 INTs & getting knocked out.

 

  We won a close one in last year's home game where Cam's fumble was the decisive play.

[First Round Bust]

sorry - thanks for that -  I skipped the pandemic year I guess

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… not to make any excuses but I thought the Bills should’ve won both the Steelers and Titans game…. But in all four of those losses they were completely exposed upfront….  I’m sure @GunnerBillhas mentioned it, but one thing to look out for on Monday is Haacks punts. Wouldn’t at all be shocked to see one blocked considering his slow wind up and BB being an expert at exposing ST weaknesses.

 

Yeah right expert at exposing ST weaknesses.  Maybe he should examine his own weaknesses on ST since two of his punts were blocked this year.

Edited December 1, 2021 by RoyBatty is alive

[Ethan in Cleveland]

At this point we should just shut down the board until Monday night. Every person can post a valid point to support their hypothesis.  It will all come to a head on Monday night. Win and they control their destiny to probably at worst the #2 seed. Lose and there is a good chance they don't make the playoffs.  

 

[First Round Bust]

or loose and beat NE the next time and have NE loose to someone else...entirely possible that we could still win the div if we loose at home on MNF...persish the thought...lets go Buffalo

Edited December 1, 2021 by First Round Bust

[FilthyBeast]

I read this article earlier and though it was very telling.

 

And for all the hype around the Bills being a SB contender it's very telling that the already have 4 losses and are 3-3 in the last six against this type of schedule.

 

 

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… not to make any excuses but I thought the Bills should’ve won both the Steelers and Titans game…. But in all four of those losses they were completely exposed upfront….  I’m sure @GunnerBillhas mentioned it, but one thing to look out for on Monday is Haacks punts. Wouldn’t at all be shocked to see one blocked considering his slow wind up and BB being an expert at exposing ST weaknesses.

 

Belichik is a wartime coach and I'm sure he's salivating looking at film on Allen, oline, ST, etc just waiting to strike like a viper.

 

Also important to note he's not going to forget what happened last year, especially on MNF in Foxboro when the Bills ran up the score. He'll definitely poor it on in this game once things are out of hand and that type of opportunity presents itself like what happened in the Colts game.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Five of the Bills seven wins have come against backup quarterbacks. They are 2-4 against starting QBs. The easiness of the schedule is real. They have feasted on weak opponents.

 

 

Taylor Heinicke was one of those backups and he's won 3 straight games right now and looks like an NFL starter.    And Trevor Lawrence was a starter but managed only 9 points.   Roethlisberger is starter quality in name only.   And yes, they would have still beaten Houston with their starter Tyrod and the Jets with Zach Wilson.  

 

You make it sound like the quality of the QB has been a significant issue.   One of the starting QB's they beat is the most valuable asset in the entire NFL.....Patrick Mahomes.  

 

The Bills have simply been as inconsistent as they possibly could be.   It's not been about the QB's.

[dave mcbride]

55 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Taylor Heinicke was one of those backups and he's won 3 straight games right now and looks like an NFL starter.    And Trevor Lawrence was a starter but managed only 9 points.   Roethlisberger is starter quality in name only.   And yes, they would have still beaten Houston with their starter Tyrod and the Jets with Zach Wilson.  

 

You make it sound like the quality of the QB has been a significant issue.   One of the starting QB's they beat is the most valuable asset in the entire NFL.....Patrick Mahomes.  

 

The Bills have simply been as inconsistent as they possibly could be.   It's not been about the QB's.

Taylor Heinecke lookss to me like a long-term loser but a guy with a long career ahead of him getting coaches fired whenever he has to play for an extended period of time. He’s a poor man’s Fitz, and his ceiling is Steve DeBerg. He was AWFUL vs. Buffalo. Lawrence had an easy TD a dropped and another great pass within the five yard line dropped on a 25 yard throw late in the game. Don’t get me wrong - he is not good yet. But he played better than Allen and did enough on his end to have the Jags beat the Bills by two scores. His supporting cast is awful, though. Roethlisberger may be in steep decline, but he’s still competent when healthy and a lot better than Rudolph. The Bills win that game if Rudolph starts. Basically, for all of their losses, they would have won if the backup had started.

Edited December 2, 2021 by dave mcbride

[benderbender]

The worst NFL team is filled with the best players in their city, state, region, and college. They all want to win. Easy? The only people who call a game easy are armchair quarterbacks. 

[BubbaT]

New England at least faced Tampa Bay and Dallas who have good offenses. Those were very competitive losses. The Bills have a good D performance vs KC. Got boat raced by Indy and Tenn. Heinecke, Brissett, Tua, White, Mills, Siemian are dreck. You decide on Roethlisberger. To me the Bills are stuck thinking they are who they were in 2020, especially on offense

Edited December 2, 2021 by BubbaT

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Five of the Bills seven wins have come against backup quarterbacks. They are 2-4 against starting QBs. The easiness of the schedule is real. They have feasted on weak opponents.

To be fair…how much worse were any of those backups to their starter counterparts?

Heinicke vs Fitzpatrick

Mills vs Taylor

White vs Wilson

brissett vs Tua

siemian vs Winston 

Backups is a bit ‘strong’ lol and it’s not like Lawrence or roethlisberger or wentz even did much to us. And we were one of those unlucky few to face that titans offense at full strength and that Steelers offense at full strength so it somewhat evens out. Pats have been luckier imo most of their difficult matchups the opponent has been riddled with injuries.  we’ve been cashing in the ‘playing injured opponents’ cards in the wrong games lol 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan