Bills offense compared to 2020 by the numbers, and they may shock you.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

Again missing the point.  I stated that game 2 the Bills did not play scared and threw the ball and buried them.  This is the same offense, so yes I think they are much better then the Pats defense and need to employ the same plan.

 

I love how people flip on a dime.  When I did a thread that the Offense seemed off, many told me how wrong I was and quoted stats #1 point differential and points scored, which are lazy ass stats according to some questioning the validity of this thread.

 

I think most actually agree that the 2021 #'s are better, however there are issues with the offense.  I consider most of those issues a result of coaching & play calling.

 

But keep cherry picking depending on whether you like the poster.

 

bud, no on is cherry picking anything depending on whether they like you as a poster.  that's completely in your head.  

 

you give examples by posting two box scores from last year.  you say the bills played scared last year in the first game and less so in the second.  this was discussed countless times last year.  you think the bills were playing scared, and most felt allen wasn't the qb he eventually became in the second game.  the bills were far more cautious and conservative due to allen's development imo.  you mention that the offense is the same, but is it the same pat's defense this year?  isn't that worth considering.

 

when you did a thread where the offense seemed off, that all started with a thread where you felt diggs wasn't getting enough targets.  that's when people disagreed with you.  the offense was humming along, and as long as the production was there, no one seemed to care where the production was coming from.  most i'm sure would still feel that way.  then it evolved into something strange.  

 

you think there are issues with the offense this year, and there are.  you think it's due to coaching and play calling, where i think it's more of a personnel issue, especially with the line.  

 

so after all of this, what's your endgame?  to tell everyone you're right?  why?  do you need it that bad?  

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Why are you cherry picking 11 data points instead of 16 from last year? 
 

Josh’s passing statistics are his efficiency statistics. YPA, TD% etc. These are all efficiency statistics!

 

I basically wrote in my OP that Josh’s stats are a little worse but he’s playing great and our offense is still great. Did you even read it?

 

1) I am not cherry picking anything. To me, it is pointless to compare seasons because the variables that go into the numbers are so different. You wanted to compare seasons. So, I am saying you cannot compare 11 games this year with 16 last year. It tells you nothing. Saying where Allen stands after 11 games this year as opposed to after 11 games last year doesn't really tell you much either; however, it is more reasonable if that is the route you want to go.

 

2) As far as efficiency goes, this is not a matter of semantics. We are talking about two separate issues. The first is a numbers issue. Those are a statistical measurement in offensive efficiency. They tell us only whether or not offensive numbers are better or worse than a comparison sample. The second is drawing conclusions from those numbers.

 

If you were simply trying to say in your post is that offensive numbers from a statistical perspective are down, then I wouldn't have a problem with that. However, you went on to say, "A lot of this is Josh...Conclusions? ...he is just not as sharp as he was last year." That is an opinion, not a legitimate conclusion from the statistics. That is where I have the problem. Allen could be absolutely as sharp, or even moreso, than last year, he just might not be putting up similar or better numbers because of other reasons. In other words, he could actually be a better QB than he was last year and not have better "numbers."

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, teef said:

bud, no on is cherry picking anything depending on whether they like you as a poster.  that's completely in your head.  

 

you give examples by posting two box scores from last year.  you say the bills played scared last year in the first game and less so in the second.  this was discussed countless times last year.  you think the bills were playing scared, and most felt allen wasn't the qb he eventually became in the second game.  the bills were far more cautious and conservative due to allen's development imo.  you mention that the offense is the same, but is it the same pat's defense this year?  isn't that worth considering.

 

when you did a thread where the offense seemed off, that all started with a thread where you felt diggs wasn't getting enough targets.  that's when people disagreed with you.  the offense was humming along, and as long as the production was there, no one seemed to care where the production was coming from.  most i'm sure would still feel that way.  then it evolved into something strange.  

 

you think there are issues with the offense this year, and there are.  you think it's due to coaching and play calling, where i think it's more of a personnel issue, especially with the line.  

 

so after all of this, what's your endgame?  to tell everyone you're right?  why?  do you need it that bad?  

Wow an actual response....  I'm impressed.

 

Allen already was imo.  The Bills were 5-2 and outside the Tenn & KC stumbles was great (300+ passing in 4 of 7 games).

 

I have said coaching and play calling all along and too with the lack of targets to Diggs.  

 

The offense to me has been okay, but no where near what I think they can/should be and that is why I made those threads/posts, when most thought they were humming.  And since then I think there has been a further decline that I blame again on coaching & play calling.   

 

Yes NE's defense is better, I just think the Bills Offense is much better and good Offense should win out.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.  If you want to break them down, by all means.  How about going play by play?  95% here are not coaches or ex-coaches who spend every waking second breaking down plays.

 

It is no different then me being questioned when I put up the two box scores from the NE games last year and noted in Buffalo, I thought the Bills played scared, threw only 18 times and were passive in a game they easily could have lost.  Game two, they were decisive, punched NE in the face, threw for over 320 and destroyed them.

 

Did you show this part of the box score when you concluded the Bills played scared?  During the first game, there were strong gusty winds.  Second game, light winds.

Allen was also 3 games out from a shoulder injury and had just moved up from a linebacker brace to a slightly less restrictive brace during the first game.

Allen was fully healed and had been throwing with precision the 2nd game

 

"Playing scared" had nothing to do with the playcalling choice of 38 runs 18 passes first game and 31 runs 40 passes 2nd game.  Gusty winds, rain vs mist and the state of Allen's shoulder were factors.

 

First game:

Second game:

 

[teef]

20 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wow an actual response....  I'm impressed.

 

Allen already was imo.  The Bills were 5-2 and outside the Tenn & KC stumbles was great (300+ passing in 4 of 7 games).

 

I have said coaching and play calling all along and too with the lack of targets to Diggs.  

 

The offense to me has been okay, but no where near what I think they can/should be and that is why I made those threads/posts, when most thought they were humming.  And since then I think there has been a further decline that I blame again on coaching & play calling.   

 

Yes NE's defense is better, I just think the Bills Offense is much better and good Offense should win out.

 

 

you've been given actual response multiple times.  you just typically don't like what you hear.  

 

allen definitely wasn't the same player at the beginning of last year as he was towards the end.  i suppose that's where we disagree.  i also disagree that coaching and play calling is the reason why the bills are stumbling a bit this year.  you can blame the staff for not addressing certain needs i suppose, but the OL has been a mess.

 

and for the offense of the bills being better...they should be.  they are on paper, but that doesn't matter.  right now the pats are playing better, more consistent football.  there's no question to that.  does it mean the bills will lose?  not at all.  

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

Dawg, overall I agree with your point, but with one exception: I don't think we can spin the Colts game in any other way than they flat-out beat us up and down all day. Yes, we helped them with a costly turnover and some dumb penalties. But in the end, they whipped our behinds. The one that will sting all year is the Jaguars games, I still have nightmares from that game. But your point is on target, when we play our at our best, I am still confident the Bills are the best team in the AFC.

I don’t disagree about the butt whooping , but the Colts are not as good as we made them look through our own faults.  We ourselves are the sole reason the game got away from us in the first half.  And it literally boiled down to five plays where we gave the game away that first half and start of second half with dumb penalties, free unforced fumble, or dropped wide open pass.  
 

Point was, the losses were more on us than being overmatched by our opponents.  If we play the Colts 10 times with Star and Edmunds active, I guarantee we win more games than we lose.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Did you show this part of the box score when you concluded the Bills played scared?  During the first game, there were strong gusty winds.  Second game, light winds.

Allen was also 3 games out from a shoulder injury and had just moved up from a linebacker brace to a slightly less restrictive brace during the first game.

Allen was fully healed and had been throwing with precision the 2nd game

 

"Playing scared" had nothing to do with the playcalling choice of 38 runs 18 passes first game and 31 runs 40 passes 2nd game.  Gusty winds, rain vs mist and the state of Allen's shoulder were factors.

 

First game:

Second game:

 

He threw for 307 the week prior and 415 the week after.  There was some wind, but not terrible.  As for his shoulder I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.  

 

I remember them playing passive.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

 

His TD percentage was 6.5% in 2020, that’s how. 

 

This is why it’s impossible for anyone to ever take you seriously around here.  You intentionally manipulate data to force an agenda all the time.  It’s literally like your thing.

 

THROUGH 11 GAMES…Josh is BETTER in more categories than he is worse compared to last years 11 games at this same time…INCLUDING TD%.
 

YOU KNOW THIS because several people have sent you the data.  Yet here you are still pushing this childish bulls**t response of comparing Josh through 11 games this year to Josh full season last year which is NOT how you compare because one of the data sets is INCOMPLETE.  

 

Literally why your posts like this are most often a waste of time.  Sad part is, if you would stop being such a trollish child about things like this all the time, you might be a decent poster.

 

PS:  You don’t have to manipulate and skew data to communicate a thought or opinion.  You should try it sometime.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Right on every count and unfortunately happens to almost every team annually.  Unfortunately the Bills have been on the wrong side in three games (Indy if those things don't happens who knows).  

 

There are hiccups every year and this year has been painfully apparent with these perplexing losses.

 

That is why I keep saying the Bills should spank NE on Monday and there should be no questions whatsoever.  The fear of BB and the Pats really irks me.   

 

If they don't then it is a coaching issue imo.

Yeah I agree.  IMHO I think we will decisively beat the Pats.  Mac Jones isn’t playing as great as the media and people are making it out to be.  He is just playing well enough to help them beat bad teams.  He’s not going off for 300 yards and 3 TDs.  But they have been playing teams mostly in a rut or who are bad and struggling to score.  So he hasn’t had to do a lot for them to win those 6 games.

 

The defense has been playing very good though for them, but again, they haven’t been tested I these 6 games by an offense like ours either.  So I think it’s a bit like how dominant our D looked against lower competition earlier this year.  
 

My expectation is we will put up somewhere between 24 and 38 points while the Pats score somewhere between 9 and 20 points.  
 

Especially since we are getting Star, Spencer and Feliciano back this week.  OL and run D should see a decent upgrade this week.

[billsfan1959]

46 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wow an actual response....  I'm impressed.

 

Allen already was imo.  The Bills were 5-2 and outside the Tenn & KC stumbles was great (300+ passing in 4 of 7 games).

 

I have said coaching and play calling all along and too with the lack of targets to Diggs.  

 

The offense to me has been okay, but no where near what I think they can/should be and that is why I made those threads/posts, when most thought they were humming.  And since then I think there has been a further decline that I blame again on coaching & play calling.   

 

Yes NE's defense is better, I just think the Bills Offense is much better and good Offense should win out.

 

 

 

Maybe, just maybe, the problems along the offensive line have something to do with the inconsistency in the offensive performance? I have said this in other posts and I will say it again: There have only been 4 games out of 11 where the top 4 linemen played together (and only 2 games in which the top 5 linemen played together). Here are some numbers comparing those 4 games with the other 7 games:

 

 Team                                Total Points     PPG    1st Downs PG    Tot YPG    Pass YPG    Rush YPG
4 Games w/top 4 Oline          154            38.5             25                   448         312.7            135.3

Other 7 Games                       172            24.5             21.8                355.7       247.1             108.6

 Allen                                    Comp    Att    Cmp%    Yds    Yds PG    TDs    TD%    INTs    INT%
4 Games w/top 4 Oline         91        131     69.5      1282   320.5      10      7.6         3        2.4
Other 7 Games                      183      279    65.6      1789    255.6      15      5.4        7        2.6

 

I'm not saying the problems along the offensive line this year are the only reasons for the offensive inconsistencies or, that having the top 4 together was the only reason the offense performed better in those games. However, if you watch the games, those in which the best Olinemen were playing, and in the positions they should be playing, the offense just looked better. Brown is back and Feliciano is now practicing. If Dawkins, Feliciano, Morse, Williams, and Brown can stay healthy and play together the rest of the year, then I think the offensive will play better. It is still going to be tough offensively because 4 of their last 6 games will be against top 8 defenses. 

[Livinginthepast]

Of course we want the super efficient Josh every game, but if we  can get back "find a way to get it done when things are not going well comeback Josh" I would gladly take that instead.  I think the lack of appearances of that Josh in our losses this season (Especially Pittsburgh and Jacksonville ) is what hurts. He almost pulled it off in Tennessee but that late slip on the Tennessee D's torpedoing of the line killed it.  If Allen can get back to that Josh who is calm under pressure and finds a way to win that is my best hope.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

He threw for 307 the week prior and 415 the week after.  There was some wind, but not terrible.  As for his shoulder I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.  

 

I remember them playing passive.  

 

No need to give me the "benefit of the doubt"

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/column-matt-hasselbeck-thinks-key-to-bills-rebound-is-josh-allens-healing-left-shoulder/article_3f8e57d0-2386-11eb-9a92-b3a82e42fa1f.html

 

 

[Sugar High JA17]

I got a feeling we will never have 2020 Josh again. if only we had no fans in the seats

[Nitro]

Allen forces the ball too often.  Just take what the defense gives

 

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Nitro said:

Allen forces the ball too often.  Just take what the defense gives

 

And I'll defend him and say this has to do with frustration with this year's offensive schemes and play calling.

 

Yep I'm a homer....

[Nitro]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And I'll defend him and say this has to do with frustration with this year's offensive schemes and play calling.

 

Yep I'm a homer....

Not buying it.   

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Lame. You're ignoring perhaps the most defining Josh Allen stat through his first three years. 

 

He plays his best football in the last quarter of the season. We shall see if that trends continues, but you're being a lame ass if you refuse to look at where he was at through the 11 games last year and this year. 

 

Regardless, he's on pace to throw more TD's this year and be sacked fewer times. So he isn't worse in every category, as much as that would please you.

 

 

How can I be ignoring those games when I included every game he’s played? 

54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This is why it’s impossible for anyone to ever take you seriously around here.  You intentionally manipulate data to force an agenda all the time.  It’s literally like your thing.

 

THROUGH 11 GAMES…Josh is BETTER in more categories than he is worse compared to last years 11 games at this same time…INCLUDING TD%.
 

YOU KNOW THIS because several people have sent you the data.  Yet here you are still pushing this childish bulls**t response of comparing Josh through 11 games this year to Josh full season last year which is NOT how you compare because one of the data sets is INCOMPLETE.  

 

Literally why your posts like this are most often a waste of time.  Sad part is, if you would stop being such a trollish child about things like this all the time, you might be a decent poster.

 

PS:  You don’t have to manipulate and skew data to communicate a thought or opinion.  You should try it sometime.

Your solution to one set of data being incomplete is to make both incomplete? 
 

Incredible statistic work.

 

We are comparing Josh’s numbers here. Last season compared to this season so far. Sorry I’m not cherry picking his first 11 games last year, you’re welcome to do so but that’s stupid.

 

The only one “manipulating data” is you. I have posted the numbers from every game our QB has played in the regular season in the last two years. Sorry it doesn’t fit your agenda.

Edited December 1, 2021 by FireChans

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The only one “manipulating data” is you. I have posted the numbers from every game our QB has played in the regular season in the last two years. Sorry it doesn’t fit your agenda.

 

Ummm. you might want to look up the meaning of projection. It actually might have this as an example.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Nitro said:

Not buying it.   

 

Talk to Brian Daboll.

Brian Daboll: "Good Fundamental Execution" (buffalobills.com)

About 7:40 in

Kim Jones asking question "if my information is correct, 7 interceptions and a fumble in the last 4.  Are there common denominators in that, can someone get into a bit of a slump where the same thing happens again and again?"

Daboll: "I think every turnover is different.  Trust me, all those 7 turnovers weren't on Josh, either.  QB get credited with interceptions, I understand that and they all understand that, but there's a lot that goes into ball security.  Whether it be the offensive line, protecting inside out, keeping the depth and the width of the pocket, running backs knowing who to block, blocking them properly, receivers running the right adjustment, QB making the right decisions.  Ball security is a team thing."

 

So, per coach Brian Daboll, he would apparently disagree with @Billsfan1972 that the Ints are caused by "frustration with this year's offensive schemes and play calling" and with you that "Allen forces the ball too often, just take what the defense gives".

 

He apparently assigns some of them on protection breakdowns, either of the OL or by the RBs.  He would put some of them on route-running mistakes by the WR.  And he would put some of them on Allen making poor decisions.  He doesn't think they are all one cause such as "frustration" or "forcing the ball".