Bills offense compared to 2020 by the numbers, and they may shock you.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How is TD% of 5.7 in 2020 better than 6.1% is 2021?

omg 😱 

the length’s people are going to 🤦‍♂️ 

 

1 the season is not over 

2 even if Select #’s are down that doesn’t mean Josh has gotten worse 

 

 

[HamSandwhich]

These numbers don’t shock me at all, in fact, that is exactly what I thought. Thanks for confirming my bias. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

I dig that Josh Allen's accuracy still holds up. He's the real deal.

Might even be better considering it's 2.02% less which would be about 9 receptions more on his current attempts. Wonder what it would be if we just ran a few jet sweeps like we did last year. Would his completion % be better than last year?🤔. Aren't jet sweeps considered pass completions?

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Might even be better considering it's 2.02% less which would be about 9 receptions more on his current attempts. Wonder what it would be if we just ran a few jet sweeps like we did last year. Would his completion % be better than last year?🤔. Aren't jet sweeps considered pass completions?

 

It depends how they are done. The Bills definitely ran them as forward passes as do most teams now to reduce the fumble risk. 

[billsfan1959]

50 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

omg 😱 

the length’s people are going to 🤦‍♂️ 

 

1 the season is not over 

2 even if Select #’s are down that doesn’t mean Josh has gotten worse 

 

Right. Comparing statistics from one season to another season (much less a season with 6 games left to a previous complete season) without any underlying analyses of factors that contributed to the play in either season is pointless. Drawing conclusions such as Allen "is not as sharp as last year" from statistics only is ridiculous.

 

This might sound shocking to the OP; however, maybe a bit of analyses of the underlying variables migh be helpful in understanding the "statistics." Take, for instance, the top 5 offensive linemen have played together in only 2 games and the top 4 linemen in only 4 games - out of 11 total games this year, and in most games, the offensive line has been a complete s*** show of musical chairs and awful play. How does that compare to the offensive line play last year? Or, what are the differences in the way defenses are playing the Bills this year as opposed to last year. Etc., etc., etc.

 

Instead, we are constantly bombarded with lazy analyses and unfounded conclusions... 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by billsfan1959

[SoCal Deek]

12 hours ago, Virgil said:

Thanks Virgil

That’s actually amazing. You couldn’t get more similar stats if you tried, and I’m sure he’s not. So it’s all going to come down to whether the Bills come anywhere close to running the table to finish this season as they did last year. That’ll be the beginning or end of the story. 

[Billsfan1972]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Disagree.  

 

Pitt - We lost this game over a blocked punt.  Or you can take any number of penalties that either took points off our board or gave points to Pitt.  They weren't "built to stop us", we beat ourselves.  We should have won that game.

 

Tenn - Literally lost this game on Josh losing his footing on a sneak which he has converted at over 95% over his career.   You can also point to a number of dumb penalties that either took points off our board or gave them points by extending drives too.  Again, shot oursevles in the foot.  Not that they were "built to beat us".   We should have won that game.

 

Jags - Our OL played its worst game I have ever seen probably in the McD era.  But again, multiple times we had penalties or dumb mistakes shoot ourselves in the foot again.  They weren't "built to beat us", we again beat ourselves.

 

Colts - Missing our best run defender (Star) and captain of our defense (Edmunds) was already a tough start to this game.  Still missing 2 starters on the OL also was a big problem.  Yet, despite all that...the REAL difference in that game was once again self inflicted mistakes.  Our first drive of the game we moved the ball at will.  Then on 3rd and 2, Josh is easily going to pickup 10-20 yards on a run, but play blown dead due to false start.  Next play...holding...suddenly its 3rd and 18 and outside FG range.  Shot ourselves in the foot.  We would then go on to get off the field on 3rd down on defense just to see us give them a free first down with a penalty flag...again, allowing them to eventually score points.  Now we get the ball near end of half with us also getting ball to start second half...putting us in a spot where we could take the lead...instead McKenzie gives them a free TD with his self inflicted fumble.  Still with 2 possessions in a row to end and start the halves...we again get 0 points thanks again to self inflicted issues like penalties and dropped passes.  

 

You see the theme here?  We continuously beat ourselves in all 4 games.  These teams weren't "built to beat us", we just too often committed fundamental mistakes that are 100% in our own control.  Not to mention, some pretty bad officiating too.  I would also note...in those 4 losses we were often missing key players like Star, Spencer, and Feliciano too...all of which had an impact on those games we lost.  

Right on every count and unfortunately happens to almost every team annually.  Unfortunately the Bills have been on the wrong side in three games (Indy if those things don't happens who knows).  

 

There are hiccups every year and this year has been painfully apparent with these perplexing losses.

 

That is why I keep saying the Bills should spank NE on Monday and there should be no questions whatsoever.  The fear of BB and the Pats really irks me.   

 

If they don't then it is a coaching issue imo.

[FireChans]

10 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

How is the TD% worse? It's better. 

Look at the photo!

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How is TD% of 5.7 in 2020 better than 6.1% is 2021?

His TD percentage was 6.5% in 2020, that’s how. 

9 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

He is comparing full 2020 to partial 2021. This thread feels very agenda driven. Its like click bait for Bills fans that want to trash the team. 

 

Sometimes qbs don't pass the vaunted eye test, well some fans don't pass the eye test either. It almost feels like they wait in the shadows to strike the moment the team lies low. Thats not to say they don't root for the Bills and aren't real fans, but that doesn't mean they don't extract some pleasure on social media when they trash them. 

Yes, my “Josh is playing great and the offense is still great” thread is secretly designed to trash the team. When are you going to apply to the Hardy Boys to solve the next dastardly case?

[FireChans]

24 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Right. Comparing statistics from one season to another season (much less a season with 6 games left to a previous complete season) without any underlying analyses of factors that contributed to the play in either season is pointless. Drawing conclusions such as Allen "is not as sharp as last year" from statistics only is ridiculous.

 

This might sound shocking to the OP; however, maybe a bit of analyses of the underlying variables migh be helpful in understanding the "statistics." Take, for instance, the top 5 offensive linemen have played together in only 2 games and the top 4 linemen in only 4 games - out of 11 total games this year, and in most games, the offensive line has been a complete s*** show of musical chairs and awful play. How does that compare to the offensive line play last year? Or, what are the differences in the way defenses are playing the Bills this year as opposed to last year. Etc., etc., etc.

 

Instead, we are constantly bombarded with lazy analyses and unfounded conclusions... 

 

You can say Allen is not as sharp this year because of the OL inconsistency. I wouldn’t even disagree. But he still isn’t as sharp this year.

 

Why would anyone use less data points from 2020 to make a comparison? The more data points is better. Obviously, having both full seasons to compare would be great, but I don’t know the future. I can’t really add games that haven’t been played yet. 
 

Some of you are obviously threatened by statistics. The numbers may not tell

the whole story, and they rarely do, but they also don’t lie.

[Billsfan1972]

30 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Right. Comparing statistics from one season to another season (much less a season with 6 games left to a previous complete season) without any underlying analyses of factors that contributed to the play in either season is pointless. Drawing conclusions such as Allen "is not as sharp as last year" from statistics only is ridiculous.

 

This might sound shocking to the OP; however, maybe a bit of analyses of the underlying variables migh be helpful in understanding the "statistics." Take, for instance, the top 5 offensive linemen have played together in only 2 games and the top 4 linemen in only 4 games - out of 11 total games this year, and in most games, the offensive line has been a complete s*** show of musical chairs and awful play. How does that compare to the offensive line play last year? Or, what are the differences in the way defenses are playing the Bills this year as opposed to last year. Etc., etc., etc.

 

Instead, we are constantly bombarded with lazy analyses and unfounded conclusions... 

 

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.  If you want to break them down, by all means.  How about going play by play?  95% here are not coaches or ex-coaches who spend every waking second breaking down plays.

 

It is no different then me being questioned when I put up the two box scores from the NE games last year and noted in Buffalo, I thought the Bills played scared, threw only 18 times and were passive in a game they easily could have lost.  Game two, they were decisive, punched NE in the face, threw for over 320 and destroyed them.

 

However obviously I did not break down game film and each play, so I was just showing a box score. 

 

 I think the offense is similar this year in stats, but yep don't pass the eye test, and that to me is not adjusting to how others are scheming the Bills and overall questionable play calling.  Again no definitive examples, just my opinion, that I think is backed by their performance. 

[billsfan1959]

14 hours ago, FireChans said:

So 2020 was a great offensive season by the Bills. Wonderful, exciting, electric, whatever you want to call it.

 

We can all agree the 2021 offense has its moments where it feels like a continuation of 2020 and moments where it feels like we are back in 2019. But what do the numbers say?

 

1. We are actually better at running the ball this year.

 

Last year, the Bills were 17th in attempts, 20th in yards, 15th in TD's and 20th in YPA.

 

This year, we are 17th in attempts, 11th in yards, 9th in TD's and 9th in YPA.

 

Some of this may be explained by Josh running a bit more (he's averaging 34 YPG compared to 28 last season, but on a similar number of attempts per game 6.4 to 6.3), but the fact remains, we are better at running.

 

2. We are worse through the air this year.

 

Last year, 11th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 3rd in yards, 9th in INT's and 4th in NY/A

 

This year, 8th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 7th in yards, 24th in INT's, and 10th in NY/A.

 

A lot of this is Josh, statistically. He is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season. Still playing great, still one of the best young QB's in the NFL, but not 2020 Josh.

 

3. On the whole, we are not much different than last year.

 

I have long held the belief that the best statistic to judge a unit to their peers is their "per drive" stats. Not as prone to confabulation due to the defense creating opportunities for the offense etc. 

 

Last year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 15th in TO percentage, 5th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 3rd in points per drive.

 

This year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 12th in TO percentage, 14th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 2nd in points per drive.

 

Outside of the huge difference in time per drive (which may be related to sheer number of possessions due to a great defense), we are still a very similar offense per drive. We score often, we are efficient, we get a lot of yards and we get a lot of points. Our TO% is actually better despite our INT number climbing, likely due to less fumbling overall.

 

Conclusions? Josh is just not as sharp as he was last year, but overall he is still playing great football and leading a great offense, an offense that by the numbers is just as good as the one last year.

 

The variance we are seeing from Josh is not really uncommon, even among the historically great. Last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 TDs. This year, through 11 games, he has thrown for only 23, which will likely place him in the mid 30's as a season total trendwise. His passer rating is a full 17 points less this year compared to last year.

 

The great QB's have good years, and great years, and insane years. We aren't in an insane year for Josh. We are in a great year. And our offense continues to remain great.

 

Could you please point out for us where it is exactly, in this entire post, where you detail how Allen's play is the direct cause of the decreased efficiency of the offense from your "statistical perspective." You know, as opposed to any decreased efficiency possibly being caused by other factors. Please point out the specifics, or feel free to add them now.

 

And remember, correlation does not imply causation.

 

Or, just continue to give your opinion as if it is fact, and then support it with statistics that don't actually prove your conclusions

[teef]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.  If you want to break them down, by all means.  How about going play by play?  95% here are not coaches or ex-coaches who spend every waking second breaking down plays.

 

It is no different then me being questioned when I put up the two box scores from the NE games last year and noted in Buffalo, I thought the Bills played scared, threw only 18 times and were passive in a game they easily could have lost.  Game two, they were decisive, punched NE in the face, threw for over 320 and destroyed them.

 

However obviously I did not break down game film and each play, so I was just showing a box score. 

 

 I think the offense is similar this year in stats, but yep don't pass the eye test, and that to me is not adjusting to how others are scheming the Bills and overall questionable play calling.  Again no definitive examples, just my opinion, that I think is backed by their performance. 

you were questioned because it's not an apples to apples comparison.  what happened against the pats last year is a completely different scenario due to who the pats are now.  

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Could you please point out for us where it is exactly, in this entire post, where you detail how Allen's play is the direct cause of the decreased efficiency of the offense from your "statistical perspective." You know, as opposed to any decreased efficiency possibly being caused by other factors. Please point out the specifics, or feel free to add them now.

 

And remember, correlation does not imply causation.

 

Or, just continue to give your opinion as if it is fact, and then support it with statistics that don't actually prove your conclusions

i think you're on someone's radar now.

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.

 

They are facts from a numbers perspective only. They do absolutely nothing in regard to saying whether or not Allen is less or more efficient this year without looking at all the variables that contributed to those statistics.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

One of the best posts of the year. Adds real context to what we are seeing. 

 

I wonder @FireChans if you have looked at consistency game to game? My perception is that the offense has been more boom or bust in 2021 than in 2020.... but that is perception I haven't crunched the numbers on it. 

Honestly that would require such a deep dive into variance to be statistically significant, I don’t have the effort in me to do it. 
 

Bar napkin style, you could look at trends in our point totals per game and compare averages but I just don’t know how valid it would be.

 

Off the top of my head, I would say, like most posters have echoed, we really turned it on for the last stretch of 2020. In early games where we scored a bunch, like the Rams, our offense went to sleep in the second half which enabled them to come back.

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Could you please point out for us where it is exactly, in this entire post, where you detail how Allen's play is the direct cause of the decreased efficiency of the offense from your "statistical perspective." You know, as opposed to any decreased efficiency possibly being caused by other factors. Please point out the specifics, or feel free to add them now.

 

And remember, correlation does not imply causation.

 

Or, just continue to give your opinion as if it is fact, and then support it with statistics that don't actually prove your conclusions

Allen’s statistics demonstrate that he is not as efficient as last year. This can be due to many different factors. 
 

Aaron Rodgers statistics demonstrate that he is not as efficient as last year. This can be due to many different factors.

 

Both are still great QB’s.

9 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Extremely agenda driven.   @FireChans is a notorious Allen hater/doubter, especially in the early years.  So to dig into his/her foxhole to create a thread to try and illustrate that Allen has regressed to the point he/she can try and justify their ire at the pick is par for the course.  

 

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Which is why he’s manipulating information to paint the narrative he wants even though it’s not factual.  Which is also pretty par for the course for him.

Should I start charging rent for how much real estate I have in your brains?

 

Only on TBD is comparing every game available “manipulating data.” 

Edited December 1, 2021 by FireChans

[billsfan1959]

38 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You can say Allen is not as sharp this year because of the OL inconsistency. I wouldn’t even disagree. But he still isn’t as sharp this year.

 

Why would anyone use less data points from 2020 to make a comparison? The more data points is better. Obviously, having both full seasons to compare would be great, but I don’t know the future. I can’t really add games that haven’t been played yet. 
 

Some of you are obviously threatened by statistics. The numbers may not tell

the whole story, and they rarely do, but they also don’t lie.

 

Statistics don't scare me at all. I deal with them all the time. For the sake of argument, let's say that the numbers indicate offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you can say from those numbers is exactly that: offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you cannot say is that the reason for that is Josh "is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season."  As an aside, betweeen INTs and lost fumbles, Allen has less turnovers than in the first eleven games last year. 

 

But back to my point. Allen may actually be more efficient and a better QB from the perspective of what is going on around him on the field. You know, things like the play of everyone else on the field around him, situational factors, etc. Or, he may not be. Those numbers do not actually tell us. Generalizing conclusions based on numbers alone is where statistics become lies.

 

BTW, the reason you do not compare a full season to 11 games is because the 11 games an incomplete sample size for comparison purposes. Even then, numbers to numbers comparisons do not actually tell you whether or not an individual player was better or worse than he was in another season.

 

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Should I start charging rent for how much real estate I have in your brains?

 

I'd gladly pay it if you promise to use the money to take a class on how to understand and use statistics.

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by billsfan1959

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Statistics don't scare me at all. I deal with them all the time. For the sake of argument, let's say that the numbers indicate offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you can say from those numbers is exactly that: offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you cannot say is that the reason for that is Josh "is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season."  As an aside, betweeen INTs and lost fumbles, Allen has less turnovers than in the first eleven games last year. 

 

But back to my point. Allen may actually be more efficient and a better QB from the perspective of what is going on around him on the field. You know, things like the play of everyone else on the field around him, situational factors, etc. Or, he may not be. Those numbers do not actually tell us. Generalizing conclusions based on numbers alone is where statistics become lies.

 

BTW, the reason you do not compare a full season to 11 games is because the 11 games an incomplete sample size for comparison purposes. Even then, numbers to numbers comparisons do not actually tell you whether or not an individual player was better or worse than he was in another season.

 

 

I'd gladly pay it if you promise to use the money to take a class on how to understand and use statistics.

 

Why are you cherry picking 11 data points instead of 16 from last year? 
 

Josh’s passing statistics are his efficiency statistics. YPA, TD% etc. These are all efficiency statistics!

 

I basically wrote in my OP that Josh’s stats are a little worse but he’s playing great and our offense is still great. Did you even read it?

[thenorthremembers]

I dont see the point in comparing last year's team with this year's.   Different team, different roster, different opponents.   Past results will not always predict future success. 

[Motorin']

59 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Look at the photo!

His TD percentage was 6.5% in 2020, that’s how. 

Yes, my “Josh is playing great and the offense is still great” thread is secretly designed to trash the team. When are you going to apply to the Hardy Boys to solve the next dastardly case?

 

Lame. You're ignoring perhaps the most defining Josh Allen stat through his first three years. 

 

He plays his best football in the last quarter of the season. We shall see if that trends continues, but you're being a lame ass if you refuse to look at where he was at through the 11 games last year and this year. 

 

Regardless, he's on pace to throw more TD's this year and be sacked fewer times. So he isn't worse in every category, as much as that would please you.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Motorin'

[Billsfan1972]

37 minutes ago, teef said:

you were questioned because it's not an apples to apples comparison.  what happened against the pats last year is a completely different scenario due to who the pats are now.  

i think you're on someone's radar now.

 

Again missing the point.  I stated that game 2 the Bills did not play scared and threw the ball and buried them.  This is the same offense, so yes I think they are much better then the Pats defense and need to employ the same plan.

 

Why do you think coaches watch game film.  I'll bet you they are watching the 2020 game film to see what went right and what went wrong.

 

I love how people flip on a dime.  When I did a thread that the Offense seemed off, many told me how wrong I was and quoted stats #1 point differential and points scored, which are lazy ass stats according to some questioning the validity of this thread.

 

I think most actually agree that the 2021 #'s are better, however there are issues with the offense.  I consider most of those issues a result of coaching & play calling.

 

As for Allen, the issues with Ints really has been the last month and is a little bit of a concern.  Is he frustrated and forcing the ball and thus something the coaching/play calling can fix. 

 

But keep cherry picking depending on whether you like the poster.

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[PolishDave]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

So 2020 was a great offensive season by the Bills. Wonderful, exciting, electric, whatever you want to call it.

 

We can all agree the 2021 offense has its moments where it feels like a continuation of 2020 and moments where it feels like we are back in 2019. But what do the numbers say?

 

Outside of the huge difference in time per drive (which may be related to sheer number of possessions due to a great defense), we are still a very similar offense per drive. We score often, we are efficient, we get a lot of yards and we get a lot of points. Our TO% is actually better despite our INT number climbing, likely due to less fumbling overall.

 

Conclusions? Josh is just not as sharp as he was last year, but overall he is still playing great football and leading a great offense, an offense that by the numbers is just as good as the one last year.

 

The variance we are seeing from Josh is not really uncommon, even among the historically great. Last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 TDs. This year, through 11 games, he has thrown for only 23, which will likely place him in the mid 30's as a season total trendwise. His passer rating is a full 17 points less this year compared to last year.

 

The great QB's have good years, and great years, and insane years. We aren't in an insane year for Josh. We are in a great year. And our offense continues to remain great.

 

I like your thought process and agree with your conclusions.

 

I am a big believer in looking at stats relative to the rest of the league.   In my opinion it is the most logical approach to analyzing stats and the one that gives the clearest picture of what you want to know - "how good is this player or this team under this year's circumstances."     It would be ridiculous for someone analyzing stats to say one team was better than the other at running the ball just because they had more total rushing yards at the end of the season compared to last year.    It is ridiculous because it doesn't account for things like number of attempts nor changes in personnel on your team or opponents nor how strong the opponents rushing defense was nor strength of schedule nor a million other variables.

 

The way you eliminate more of those noisy variables is by comparing your team under its relative circumstances right now to last years team's relative circumstances as they were last year.    

 

All I care about is whether my team is better this year compared to the rest of the NFL than it was in prior years.   Because, that gives me the best insight into how good or how bad my team really is.   How dominant is my offense or defense this year compared to how dominant or not it was in previous years.

 

Nice analysis.