Bills offense compared to 2020 by the numbers, and they may shock you.

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I literally linked the stat page.

 

I wrote this.

 

It's all true. I'm sorry.

 

How is TD% of 5.7 in 2020 better than 6.1% is 2021?

[What a Tuel]

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How is TD% of 5.7 in 2020 better than 6.1% is 2021?

 

He is comparing full 2020 to partial 2021. This thread feels very agenda driven. Its like click bait for Bills fans that want to trash the team. 

 

Sometimes qbs don't pass the vaunted eye test, well some fans don't pass the eye test either. It almost feels like they wait in the shadows to strike the moment the team lies low. Thats not to say they don't root for the Bills and aren't real fans, but that doesn't mean they don't extract some pleasure on social media when they trash them. 

Edited December 1, 2021 by What a Tuel

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

7 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

He is comparing full 2020 to partial 2021. This thread feels very agenda driven. Its like click bait for Bills fans that want to trash the team. 

 

Sometimes qbs don't pass the vaunted eye test, well some fans don't pass the eye test either. It almost feels like they wait in the shadows to strike the moment the team lies low. Thats not to say they don't root for the Bills and aren't real fans, but that doesn't mean they don't extract some pleasure on social media when they trash them. 

 

Extremely agenda driven.   @FireChans is a notorious Allen hater/doubter, especially in the early years.  So to dig into his/her foxhole to create a thread to try and illustrate that Allen has regressed to the point he/she can try and justify their ire at the pick is par for the course.  

[Alphadawg7]

21 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

He is comparing full 2020 to partial 2021. This thread feels very agenda driven. Its like click bait for Bills fans that want to trash the team. 

 

Sometimes qbs don't pass the vaunted eye test, well some fans don't pass the eye test either. It almost feels like they wait in the shadows to strike the moment the team lies low. Thats not to say they don't root for the Bills and aren't real fans, but that doesn't mean they don't extract some pleasure on social media when they trash them. 

 

9 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Extremely agenda driven.   @FireChans is a notorious Allen hater/doubter, especially in the early years.  So to dig into his/her foxhole to create a thread to try and illustrate that Allen has regressed to the point he/she can try and justify their ire at the pick is par for the course.  

Which is why he’s manipulating information to paint the narrative he wants even though it’s not factual.  Which is also pretty par for the course for him.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

People think of last year and they only think of the glorious games. They expect that every game now.

 

It just isn't realistic...no QB always plays great...not even Kelly always had great games...he had crap games that were probably worse than any Allen has had.

[Weatherman]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

So 2020 was a great offensive season by the Bills. Wonderful, exciting, electric, whatever you want to call it.

 

We can all agree the 2021 offense has its moments where it feels like a continuation of 2020 and moments where it feels like we are back in 2019. But what do the numbers say?

 

1. We are actually better at running the ball this year.

 

Last year, the Bills were 17th in attempts, 20th in yards, 15th in TD's and 20th in YPA.

 

This year, we are 17th in attempts, 11th in yards, 9th in TD's and 9th in YPA.

 

Some of this may be explained by Josh running a bit more (he's averaging 34 YPG compared to 28 last season, but on a similar number of attempts per game 6.4 to 6.3), but the fact remains, we are better at running.

 

2. We are worse through the air this year.

 

Last year, 11th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 3rd in yards, 9th in INT's and 4th in NY/A

 

This year, 8th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 7th in yards, 24th in INT's, and 10th in NY/A.

 

A lot of this is Josh, statistically. He is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season. Still playing great, still one of the best young QB's in the NFL, but not 2020 Josh.

 

3. On the whole, we are not much different than last year.

 

I have long held the belief that the best statistic to judge a unit to their peers is their "per drive" stats. Not as prone to confabulation due to the defense creating opportunities for the offense etc. 

 

Last year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 15th in TO percentage, 5th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 3rd in points per drive.

 

This year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 12th in TO percentage, 14th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 2nd in points per drive.

 

Outside of the huge difference in time per drive (which may be related to sheer number of possessions due to a great defense), we are still a very similar offense per drive. We score often, we are efficient, we get a lot of yards and we get a lot of points. Our TO% is actually better despite our INT number climbing, likely due to less fumbling overall.

 

Conclusions? Josh is just not as sharp as he was last year, but overall he is still playing great football and leading a great offense, an offense that by the numbers is just as good as the one last year.

 

The variance we are seeing from Josh is not really uncommon, even among the historically great. Last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 TDs. This year, through 11 games, he has thrown for only 23, which will likely place him in the mid 30's as a season total trendwise. His passer rating is a full 17 points less this year compared to last year.

 

The great QB's have good years, and great years, and insane years. We aren't in an insane year for Josh. We are in a great year. And our offense continues to remain great.

Some of it is Josh some of it is the awful oline some of it is awful play calling.  

[Motorin']

4 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Some of it is Josh some of it is the awful oline some of it is awful play calling.  

 

Which part, the 13% more passing TD's or the 23% fewer sacks so far this year? 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Yes it is. He has a worse completion percentage, worse TD%, worse INT%, worse YPA. It's why despite his "more yards per game" he has a passer rating ~8 points lower than last season. He is less efficient than last season, point blank, period.

 

 

He's only 3 or 4 points lower from where he was through 11 games in 2020. The idea that Allen has regressed is false IMO. Allen played exceptionally well down the stretch last year and his passer rating jumped up about 5 points. That may or may not happen again this year. The question we have to ask ourselves now is, okay Allen's passer rating is about 3 points lower from what it was last year through 11 games. What does that mean? Is that significant enough to mean anything? To me that is meaningless. Now if it were 10 points lower than it was through 11 games last year, I would call that a regression. But give or take 3 points? Seems meaningless. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

Quite honestly the most surprising stat off this comparison is the sacks total—just off the eye test with this year’s Oline play, I feel like that would be flipped! 

[Utah John]

These overall stats don't tell the story.  The Bills racked up insane stats against weak teams, and they've struggled against good teams or (Jags) teams with strong D lines.  The most (ONLY) important stat is:  four losses so far.  

 

Last year there was a long stretch where the Bills offense was just unstoppable.  D coordinators get paid to deal with challenges like the ones the Bills presented, and they have done so.  A strong D line and a competent defensive backfield will stop the Bills.  This combination was installed to stop the Chiefs, and it worked, and then people tried it against us, and it worked still.  Now it's up to our great O coordinator to step up and figure a way to counter the counter -- how to keep the offense running well against the types of defenses being thrown up at us.

 

I've said before that the problem is the Bills were built to beat the Chiefs, and while we had our focus there we didn't see what other teams were doing to beat us.  Other teams looked hard at our athletic but small O line and our athletic but small D line, and figured there was something there to exploit.  So they did.  And now to some extent we're trying to play last year's game on this year's field.  Kansas City figured out how to counter the counter, and they've turned their season around.  We need to do the same.  Come on Daboll, let's see how good you REALLY are.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Utah John

[machine gun kelly]

You guys really get wrapped around the axle in stats.  I don’t disagree JA was better last year, but still is very good this year.  For me, he’s our franchise QB and will be leading this team for the next decade and longer.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Utah John said:

These overall stats don't tell the story.  The Bills racked up insane stats against weak teams, and they've struggled against good teams or (Jags) teams with strong D lines.  The most (ONLY) important stat is:  four losses so far.  

 

Last year there was a long stretch where the Bills offense was just unstoppable.  D coordinators get paid to deal with challenges like the ones the Bills presented, and they have done so.  A strong D line and a competent defensive backfield will stop the Bills.  This combination was installed to stop the Chiefs, and it worked, and then people tried it against us, and it worked still.  Now it's up to our great O coordinator to step up and figure a way to counter the counter -- how to keep the offense running well against the types of defenses being thrown up at us.

 

I've said before that the problem is the Bills were built to beat the Chiefs, and while we had our focus there we didn't see what other teams were doing to beat us.  Other teams looked hard at our athletic but small O line and our athletic but small D line, and figured there was something there to exploit.  So they did.  And now to some extent we're trying to play last year's game on this year's field.  Kansas City figured out how to counter the counter, and they've turned their season around.  We need to do the same.  Come on Daboll, let's see how good you REALLY are.

 

Disagree.  

 

Pitt - We lost this game over a blocked punt.  Or you can take any number of penalties that either took points off our board or gave points to Pitt.  They weren't "built to stop us", we beat ourselves.  We should have won that game.

 

Tenn - Literally lost this game on Josh losing his footing on a sneak which he has converted at over 95% over his career.   You can also point to a number of dumb penalties that either took points off our board or gave them points by extending drives too.  Again, shot oursevles in the foot.  Not that they were "built to beat us".   We should have won that game.

 

Jags - Our OL played its worst game I have ever seen probably in the McD era.  But again, multiple times we had penalties or dumb mistakes shoot ourselves in the foot again.  They weren't "built to beat us", we again beat ourselves.

 

Colts - Missing our best run defender (Star) and captain of our defense (Edmunds) was already a tough start to this game.  Still missing 2 starters on the OL also was a big problem.  Yet, despite all that...the REAL difference in that game was once again self inflicted mistakes.  Our first drive of the game we moved the ball at will.  Then on 3rd and 2, Josh is easily going to pickup 10-20 yards on a run, but play blown dead due to false start.  Next play...holding...suddenly its 3rd and 18 and outside FG range.  Shot ourselves in the foot.  We would then go on to get off the field on 3rd down on defense just to see us give them a free first down with a penalty flag...again, allowing them to eventually score points.  Now we get the ball near end of half with us also getting ball to start second half...putting us in a spot where we could take the lead...instead McKenzie gives them a free TD with his self inflicted fumble.  Still with 2 possessions in a row to end and start the halves...we again get 0 points thanks again to self inflicted issues like penalties and dropped passes.  

 

You see the theme here?  We continuously beat ourselves in all 4 games.  These teams weren't "built to beat us", we just too often committed fundamental mistakes that are 100% in our own control.  Not to mention, some pretty bad officiating too.  I would also note...in those 4 losses we were often missing key players like Star, Spencer, and Feliciano too...all of which had an impact on those games we lost.  

[CSBill]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Disagree.  

 

Pitt - We lost this game over a blocked punt.  Or you can take any number of penalties that either took points off our board or gave points to Pitt.  They weren't "built to stop us", we beat ourselves.  We should have won that game.

 

Tenn - Literally lost this game on Josh losing his footing on a sneak which he has converted at over 95% over his career.   You can also point to a number of dumb penalties that either took points off our board or gave them points by extending drives too.  Again, shot oursevles in the foot.  Not that they were "built to beat us".   We should have won that game.

 

Jags - Our OL played its worst game I have ever seen probably in the McD era.  But again, multiple times we had penalties or dumb mistakes shoot ourselves in the foot again.  They weren't "built to beat us", we again beat ourselves.

 

Colts - Missing our best run defender (Star) and captain of our defense (Edmunds) was already a tough start to this game.  Still missing 2 starters on the OL also was a big problem.  Yet, despite all that...the REAL difference in that game was once again self inflicted mistakes.  Our first drive of the game we moved the ball at will.  Then on 3rd and 2, Josh is easily going to pickup 10-20 yards on a run, but play blown dead due to false start.  Next play...holding...suddenly its 3rd and 18 and outside FG range.  Shot ourselves in the foot.  We would then go on to get off the field on 3rd down on defense just to see us give them a free first down with a penalty flag...again, allowing them to eventually score points.  Now we get the ball near end of half with us also getting ball to start second half...putting us in a spot where we could take the lead...instead McKenzie gives them a free TD with his self inflicted fumble.  Still with 2 possessions in a row to end and start the halves...we again get 0 points thanks again to self inflicted issues like penalties and dropped passes.  

 

You see the theme here?  We continuously beat ourselves in all 4 games.  These teams weren't "built to beat us", we just too often committed fundamental mistakes that are 100% in our own control.  Not to mention, some pretty bad officiating too.  I would also note...in those 4 losses we were often missing key players like Star, Spencer, and Feliciano too...all of which had an impact on those games we lost.  

 

Dawg, overall I agree with your point, but with one exception: I don't think we can spin the Colts game in any other way than they flat-out beat us up and down all day. Yes, we helped them with a costly turnover and some dumb penalties. But in the end, they whipped our behinds. The one that will sting all year is the Jaguars games, I still have nightmares from that game. But your point is on target, when we play our at our best, I am still confident the Bills are the best team in the AFC.

[Doc Brown]

Josh played out of his mind in four of the last five regular season games last year and that version of Allen may be ingrained in our minds so that's pry why we feel he's not firing on all cylinders this year.

[GunnerBill]

One of the best posts of the year. Adds real context to what we are seeing. 

 

I wonder @FireChans if you have looked at consistency game to game? My perception is that the offense has been more boom or bust in 2021 than in 2020.... but that is perception I haven't crunched the numbers on it. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Disagree.  

 

Pitt - We lost this game over a blocked punt.  Or you can take any number of penalties that either took points off our board or gave points to Pitt.  They weren't "built to stop us", we beat ourselves.  We should have won that game.

 

Tenn - Literally lost this game on Josh losing his footing on a sneak which he has converted at over 95% over his career.   You can also point to a number of dumb penalties that either took points off our board or gave them points by extending drives too.  Again, shot oursevles in the foot.  Not that they were "built to beat us".   We should have won that game.

 

Jags - Our OL played its worst game I have ever seen probably in the McD era.  But again, multiple times we had penalties or dumb mistakes shoot ourselves in the foot again.  They weren't "built to beat us", we again beat ourselves.

 

Colts - Missing our best run defender (Star) and captain of our defense (Edmunds) was already a tough start to this game.  Still missing 2 starters on the OL also was a big problem.  Yet, despite all that...the REAL difference in that game was once again self inflicted mistakes.  Our first drive of the game we moved the ball at will.  Then on 3rd and 2, Josh is easily going to pickup 10-20 yards on a run, but play blown dead due to false start.  Next play...holding...suddenly its 3rd and 18 and outside FG range.  Shot ourselves in the foot.  We would then go on to get off the field on 3rd down on defense just to see us give them a free first down with a penalty flag...again, allowing them to eventually score points.  Now we get the ball near end of half with us also getting ball to start second half...putting us in a spot where we could take the lead...instead McKenzie gives them a free TD with his self inflicted fumble.  Still with 2 possessions in a row to end and start the halves...we again get 0 points thanks again to self inflicted issues like penalties and dropped passes.  

 

You see the theme here?  We continuously beat ourselves in all 4 games.  These teams weren't "built to beat us", we just too often committed fundamental mistakes that are 100% in our own control.  Not to mention, some pretty bad officiating too.  I would also note...in those 4 losses we were often missing key players like Star, Spencer, and Feliciano too...all of which had an impact on those games we lost.  

 

 

I think Indy and Tennessee are "built to beat us." Wasn't the only reason they beat us but if you are building a team to beat the Bills it is an offense that is a straight up power run scheme, supported by a heavy play action pass attack and a defense that gets interior pressure and has active safety play that can come and disrupt those intermediate routes. Yes we made mistakes in all those games but if I am "building" a team to beat the Bills that is the way I am building it. Pitt and Jax were worse. We should never have lost to those teams although as I said all offseason, week 1 was the worse time to get the Steelers. They were always going to get worse as the season went on. It happened last year as well. By week 9 or so Ben couldn't throw. He looked like end of career Peyton Manning on Sunday. That was a tough scheduling break. 

[hondo in seattle]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

One of the best posts of the year. Adds real context to what we are seeing. 

 

I wonder @FireChans if you have looked at consistency game to game? My perception is that the offense has been more boom or bust in 2021 than in 2020.... but that is perception I haven't crunched the numbers on it. 

 

Agree with boom or bust.

 

As for the run game, statistically it has undeniably improved.  Yet I still don't feel like we can run when we want.  We can't impose our will on people.   Our OL can't, with any consistency, create holes for our backs.  When we are able to run, it's mostly because defenses are more worried about Josh and the receivers.   

 

The ancient Chinese football strategist, Sun Tzu, once said, "Attack where there is no defense."  Our running attack works only when we do that.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, hondo in seattle said:

 

Agree with boom or bust.

 

As for the run game, statistically it has undeniably improved.  Yet I still don't feel like we can run when we want.  We can't impose our will on people.   Our OL can't, with any consistency, create holes for our backs.  When we are able to run, it's mostly because defenses are more worried about Josh and the receivers.   

 

The ancient Chinese football strategist, Sun Tzu, once said, "Attack where there is no defense."  Our running attack works only when we do that.

 

I think our run game has definitely been better. It just isn't saying a lot because the bar was set so low last year. Devin Singletary has been a better back this year than last and they have simplified their running scheme. They are definitely using fewer different running plays than last year and focusing on executing them better. The downside of that as @Hapless Bills Fan has demonstrated elsewhere is we have taken out some of our shotgun package runs (which were particularly brutal at times in 2020) so generally us being under center is a bit of a tell to the defense that a run might well be coming. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

I dig that Josh Allen's accuracy still holds up. He's the real deal.

[Billsfan1972]

9 hours ago, wagne591 said:

I agree with you to a point and yes all the games listed above were towards the end of the year starting with SF was on a Monday night 12/7/20 pretty similar to this game 12/6/21 and that SF game is the game that set the tone for the rest of the year.  Josh went off 

J. Allen (BUF), 40-32-375, 0 INT, 4 TD hopefully he will have a similar stat line this Monday night (the most important is 0 INT) and that was against a pretty good defense.  

 

As for my thoughts I think this year feels different because we haven't stacked wins even when Josh isn't playing his best we aren't winning like last year.  I mean the first time we played the Patriots last year in BUF Josh didn't have a great game J. Allen (BUF), 18-11-154, 1 INT, 0 TD

Nor did Josh have a great game against the Chargers

J. Allen (BUF), 24-18-157, 1 INT, 1 TD

Both games the Bills won.  They haven't been able to do that this year...win when Josh plays bad.  If they had two more wins I.e. Pitt and Jax this conversation would be totally different.  

The Charger game was bad.  The NE game he was fine, Daboll & McD played into their hands and scared, making it a close game.

 

The difference this year, is one out and out stinker by Josh vs. Jax and a bad game vs. Indy. 

 

Frankly though the last month has seen a slip in play and some decision making as I see bad play calling and an offense that shouldn't, but seems to sputter.