Weather Forecast for Monday

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

Not sure what else to tell you. I copy and pasted this from NOAA.

You believe whatever you like. And remember, Google is your friend. I've read plenty on the supercomputer weather models.

 

ECMWF

Global models with worldwide weather forecasts

The ECMWF is generally considered to be the most accurate global model, with the US's GFS slightly behind.

 

I stand corrected on that point, thank you.  However, as you recommend "Google is my Friend", I point out to you that there is still a difference between a GLOBAL weather model and a LOCAL weather model.

https://windy.app/blog/what-is-a-weather-forecast-model-guide-on-forecast-models-all-around-the-world.html

 

And you stand corrected (or should) on the point that on Thursday, and even Friday, no model (certainly no global model)  is accurate in predicting the exact arrival time of a weather system passing through a specific location or the exact location of a weather event forecast to occur somewhere in >100 mile band. 

 

Nope, I'm not a meteorologist, but I have decades depending on the best weather models I could get my hands on to keep my ass and my family safe, and that was a lesson we learned early on and kept learning: you can't rely on a model for the timing and exact location of a weather event more than 24-36 hrs out (48 hrs is starting to be predictive).  "You can't fly the forecast, you have to fly the weather you find"

 

The current forecast seems rain/mix Monday, trailing off during the day (21% at game time) and 21 mph winds dropping off during the game.  What the model seems to be doing is saying the weather will arrive later, but move through faster.  Could there be a "wind event" with 55 mph gusts in the area, sure, but that's sometime between Sunday and Tuesday, depending upon when the front actually moves through and the specifics of the location.

 

I'm outta here, if you want to keep on keeping on with the 55 mpg or 60 mph winds and all and with insisting that the global Euro model can accurately predict thelocal weather in OP on Monday night, as of Thursday (or Friday), You do You

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

AccuWeather says "breezy with a flurry in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy." Should be able to trust it at this point. Shouldn't really be any precipitation, just some wind.

 

This is said tongue in cheek.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Can't tell if you are serious or being facetious.

The weather at game time is going to be HORRIBLE.

 

This is literally the forecast for Monday on Weather.com (the Weather Channel) at the moment.

"The Weather Channel now says a high of 53 with temps falling and a rain/snow mix with winds at 26 mph for the game!   It will be a great game!!!"

 

Currently Weather Channel still says pretty much the same thing: High of 52, low of 26, 82% chance of rain/snow mix and 26 mph winds (falling through the game)

 

Whether the game time weather is good or horrible all depends upon when that stuff arrives and how quickly it moves through.

 

 

[SectionC3]

19 hours ago, nucci said:

it's the wind that will be the problem

Yeah this is going to be an issue.  This forecast is not good. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[HamSandwhich]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

No excuses, just get out there and win! 

[dave mcbride]

29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is literally the forecast for Monday on Weather.com (the Weather Channel) at the moment.

"The Weather Channel now says a high of 53 with temps falling and a rain/snow mix with winds at 26 mph for the game!   It will be a great game!!!"

 

Currently Weather Channel still says pretty much the same thing: High of 52, low of 26, 82% chance of rain/snow mix and 26 mph winds (falling through the game)

 

Whether the game time weather is good or horrible all depends upon when that stuff arrives and how quickly it moves through.

 

 

On the site, they do have a forecast for Monday night. Looks like it'll be pretty windy and increasingly dry as the game goes on, but obviously things can change between now and then. 

 

Mon 06 | Night

26°

23% precipitation

W 22 mph

Cloudy and windy early, becoming partly cloudy late. Low 26F. Winds W at 20 to 30 mph.

Humidity: 61%

[Success]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

On the site, they do have a forecast for Monday night. Looks like it'll be pretty windy and increasingly dry as the game goes on, but obviously things can change between now and then. 

 

Mon 06 | Night

26°

23% precipitation

W 22 mph

Cloudy and windy early, becoming partly cloudy late. Low 26F. Winds W at 20 to 30 mph.

Humidity: 61%

 

22 mph isn't as bad - and I like the "windy early."

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I am not sure people appreciate how windy 20 MPH Is (let alone 40 or 60– which could happen). I have a little 1-person sail boat (dinghy) and if I get like 10 MPH of wind, I am flying. At like 20, I am capsizing. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am not sure people appreciate how windy 20 MPH Is (let alone 40 or 60– which could happen). I have a little 1-person sail boat (dinghy) and if I get like 10 MPH of wind, I am flying. At like 20, I am capsizing. 

20-20+ is indeed very windy. Sounds like it might start out in the 20s and die down down a bit as the evening goes on. We'll see.

[sherpa]

The 20mph forecast is for a basic open, windsock location.

At field level, it should be less, unless they knock down the walls.

Less velocity, but less directional consistency.

[Success]

The downside to the weather - for the Mac Jones hypers, bad weather is considered to be the one thing he hasn't proven himself in yet.  If he somehow plays well and the Pats win....do not watch ESPN, or any sports media. Do not listen to any podcasts.  Stay away from the internet.

 

It would be best to just move to the wilderness for awhile, like those 70's "man on the mountain" movies.

[billsfanmiamioh]

4 minutes ago, sherpa said:

The 20mph forecast is for a basic open, windsock location.

At field level, it should be less, unless they knock down the walls.

Less velocity, but less directional consistency.

I have seasons in the lower level (row 27) and you can often look up at the flags on top of the stadium and see them pointing straight out. Meanwhile the ones on the goalposts will swirl and vary in intensity. And down closer to field level you’ll feel comparatively little. It really is a strange stadium for wind. That McKenzie kickoff muff earlier in the year was a great example. 

[sherpa]

19 minutes ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

I have seasons in the lower level (row 27) and you can often look up at the flags on top of the stadium and see them pointing straight out. Meanwhile the ones on the goalposts will swirl and vary in intensity. And down closer to field level you’ll feel comparatively little. It really is a strange stadium for wind. That McKenzie kickoff muff earlier in the year was a great example. 

 

I think all are "strange."

The prevailing winds in the area are from the southwest.

The stadium is oriented NW-SE, with the tunnel at the SE side, putting it crosswind to the prevailing wind, and minimizing the effect.

The tunnel is ultimately enclosed, so not that big of an aerodynamic deal.

I have no idea if it was placed with this orientation in order to minimize the effect of having one direction enjoy tailwind, while the other battles a headwind, but it sure looks that way.

Either way, weather systems produce winds from different directions based on the location of the highs and lows, but it looks like the place was oriented with knowledge of these facts.

Edited December 3, 2021 by sherpa

[djp14150]

13 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I think all are "strange."

The prevailing winds in the area are from the southwest.

The stadium is oriented NW-SE, with the tunnel at the SE side, putting it crosswind to the prevailing wind, and minimizing the effect.

The tunnel is ultimately enclosed, so not that big of an aerodynamic deal.

I have no idea if it was placed with this orientation in order to minimize the effect of having one direction enjoy tailwind, while the other battles a headwind, but it sure looks that way.

Either way, weather systems produce winds from different directions based on the location of the highs and lows, but it looks like the place was oriented with knowledge of these facts.

 

The ai dynamic changed a lot after they build that club house area in the one end of the stadium.

[PaattMaann]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am not sure people appreciate how windy 20 MPH Is (let alone 40 or 60– which could happen). I have a little 1-person sail boat (dinghy) and if I get like 10 MPH of wind, I am flying. At like 20, I am capsizing. 

 

good thing they dont play football in dinghy's

[Blank Stare]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am not sure people appreciate how windy 20 MPH Is (let alone 40 or 60– which could happen). I have a little 1-person sail boat (dinghy) and if I get like 10 MPH of wind, I am flying. At like 20, I am capsizing. 

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am not sure people appreciate how windy 20 MPH Is (let alone 40 or 60– which could happen). I have a little 1-person sail boat (dinghy) and if I get like 10 MPH of wind, I am flying. At like 20, I am capsizing. 

So basically if you have a 7 foot sail attached to one person, you'll flip over with 20mph winds.

In that case, someone will need to tie down Spencer Brown when he opens his arms on Monday night or he's likely to capsize. 

[BigAl2526]

In a worst case weather scenario (steady winds 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-60, with possible lake effect snow) a passing game becomes very difficult.  Intermediate passes become an adventure, and deep passes are virtually impossible.  Of course, the kicking game is also greatly affected.  The stadium is oriented northwest to southeast and the forecast is for westerly winds after the cold front passes.  One team will have the wind somewhat at their backs, while the other will have to drive into the wind versus a straight crosswind, but there will also be a crosswind factor for both teams.  Then, of course the stadium structure will affect what the wind does too.  Swirling and shifting will take place.  The good news is that Mac Jones has likely never faced anything like what he'll be seeing on Monday evening.  The weather will also mitigate the loss of Tre White.  Josh Allen has faced this kind of wind before, and of the two QBs Josh Allen has the arm to drive and spin the ball better through the winds.  Of course, the Patriots have shown the better running game.

[Nextmanup]

9 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

In a worst case weather scenario (steady winds 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-60, with possible lake effect snow) a passing game becomes very difficult.  Intermediate passes become an adventure, and deep passes are virtually impossible.  Of course, the kicking game is also greatly affected.  The stadium is oriented northwest to southeast and the forecast is for westerly winds after the cold front passes.  One team will have the wind somewhat at their backs, while the other will have to drive into the wind versus a straight crosswind, but there will also be a crosswind factor for both teams.  Then, of course the stadium structure will affect what the wind does too.  Swirling and shifting will take place.  The good news is that Mac Jones has likely never faced anything like what he'll be seeing on Monday evening.  The weather will also mitigate the loss of Tre White.  Josh Allen has faced this kind of wind before, and of the two QBs Josh Allen has the arm to drive and spin the ball better through the winds.  Of course, the Patriots have shown the better running game.

A really bad weather game of the type you describe (as a worst case scenario) HEAVILY favors the Patriots.

 

The Bills are lightly constructed finesse team, like a scalpel.

 

The Patriots are more of a sledge hammer.

 

Let's hope the timing is off and the bad weather doesn't impact the game.