Weather Forecast for Monday

[Bubba Gump]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd want to have some evidence on that last point that it's reality and not a student's perception.  Like I said, if it were unambiguously the most accurate model, they'd use it (and not keep running several different models).  They run them all because sometimes one gives a better result, and sometimes another one does

 

I only know "Jill" about meteorology, but I spent years working with weather forecasts from various sources from a week out to just before in the course of flying across the country, Bahamas, Canada and stuff in a small plane that can't handle much weather.  We learned rapidly that you can predict that bad weather is gonna be between here and there, but you can't predict ***** about when it will get to specific locations two days out, or (sometimes) exactly where it will hit perpendicular to the front's travel.

 

And if your bud told you you can forecast accurately when bad weather will arrive at a specific location or how bad it will be - 4 days in advance - I don't want to be rude, but I'll just say he/she was having you on, Big Time.  Heck, it happened more than once that the forecast went to crap while we were enroute, in a plane with a 4 hr range, and we wound up asking for vectors to the nearest airport in the clear - when we were supposed to have had a clear flight well ahead of the front.

 

 

Just to note that little phrase I bolded "stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing" 

 

Like I said, they've already slowed it down from predicting it would arrive Sat-Sun, into arrive late Sun-Mon.  Could slow down further and not arrive until late Mon-Tues.  Could speed up.  Probably won't veer north or south given the geography of the area. 

 

And they think there's gonna be a "high wind event" "sometime during Sunday night to Monday night". 

 

So it might or might not impact the game.

 

Not sure what else to tell you. I copy and pasted this from NOAA.

You believe whatever you like. And remember, Google is your friend. I've read plenty on the supercomputer weather models.

 

ECMWF

Global models with worldwide weather forecasts

The ECMWF is generally considered to be the most accurate global model, with the US's GFS slightly behind.

[Process]

Biggest game of the year and we are looking at rain/snow/25mph winds. So ridiculous.

 

It's 2021. It's Buffalo. If you're spending $1.5B+ on a new stadium that should last decades put a damn roof on it. 

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

There's really just not much sense everybody getting their knickers into a knot over it at this point.

But I really wanna! 😭

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I may have posted this article before, but a pretty good analysis of wind on QB play. Bottom line: Anything up to 15 MPH is negligible. 15-20 MPH causes a dip in production. Anything  over 20 MPH is a serious problem:

 

“The effect of wind/wind gusts is the most significant weather variable affecting QB performance. The effects are fairly slight for avg wind speeds from 0 mph up to about 15 mph, but above that threshold, the difference in fantasy points is about 12% less. In games with winds over 20 mph, the negative effects are more significant, with ~17% fewer fantasy points per game.”

 

https://towardsdatascience.com/football-weather-diving-into-the-effects-of-weather-on-nfl-qb-performance-f0edb420623d

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I may have posted this article before, but a pretty good analysis of wind on QB play. Bottom line: Anything up to 15 MPH is negligible. 15-20 MPH causes a dip in production. Anything  over 20 MPH is a serious problem:

 

“The effect of wind/wind gusts is the most significant weather variable affecting QB performance. The effects are fairly slight for avg wind speeds from 0 mph up to about 15 mph, but above that threshold, the difference in fantasy points is about 12% less. In games with winds over 20 mph, the negative effects are more significant, with ~17% fewer fantasy points per game.”

 

https://towardsdatascience.com/football-weather-diving-into-the-effects-of-weather-on-nfl-qb-performance-f0edb420623d

 

Remember that game a few years ago wind was so strong the goal posts were all turned sideways on both ends of the field.? Don't remember how strong gust got but that was crazy.

[Weatherman]

59 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well went from clear with 11 mph winds earlier in the week to showers/snow with 23 mph winds...not trending in the right direction.  

 

Obviously it's still only Thursday night, but it's looking like even if the system goes through earlier in the day, we are then setting up for Lake Effect Snow behind it(from the forecasters discussion on NOAA Buffalo).

 

"A deepening area of low pressure is progged to cut the Great Lakes from the Mid-West and track northwest of western and north central NY Sunday-Monday. Signals in the ensembles from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF ENS are surfacing that show a potential wind event across the region sometime during Sunday night-Monday night. Many parameters such as sharp pressure rises and cold air advection behind a strong cold front associated with a deepening surface low pressure match local climatology for high wind events across western and north central NY. Widespread rain will likely move across the region ahead of the cold front Sunday-Monday. Stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing. Temperatures will likely start off in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday morning and fall through the day into Monday night. Lake effect snow showers will likely begin behind the cold front Monday-Tuesday resulting in accumulating snow for some locations east of the Lakes."

I'd say NOAA Buffalo and especially the forecasters discussion is the place to go...from a former Meteorology Major

Full disclosure Met students (B.S./M.S. or Doctorates) don’t know squat about forecasting.  They can tell you the science/math associated with meteorology but can’t forecast their way out of a wet paper bag.  This is all learned via OTJ training.  The forecast discussion is good for an understanding about general area forecasts but it’s not specific to pin point locations.  Lake effect is a all based on fetch (wind direction).  The wind changes, the snow band moves with it, which is why you can get 2 feet of snow at orchard park and zero in Buffalo.  Wunderground provides high resolution models specific to Individual locations, so in the scenario I agree with the poster.  If you read my original post all the way to the end, you will see that I said it looks like westerly flow off Lake Erie behind the cold front could lead to higher winds and lake effect snow.  Still 4 days out and the system could speed up or slow down…let’s hope it speeds up!

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Full disclosure Met students (B.S./M.S. or Doctorates) don’t know squat about forecasting.  They can tell you the science/math associated with meteorology but can’t forecast their way out of a wet paper bag.  This is all learned via OTJ training.  The forecast discussion is good for an understanding about general area forecasts but it’s not specific to pin point locations.  Lake effect is a all based on fetch (wind direction).  The wind changes, the snow band moves with it, which is why you can get 2 feet of snow at orchard park and zero in Buffalo.  Wunderground provides high resolution models specific to Individual locations, so in the scenario I agree with the poster.  If you read my original post all the way to the end, you will see that I said it looks like westerly flow off Lake Erie behind the cold front could lead to higher winds and lake effect snow.  Still 4 days out and the system could speed up or slow down…let’s hope it speeds up!

 

Haha, that's why I read the forecaster discussion! 

 

Trying to calculate all those calculations by hand was where I drew the line...that type of crazy math and engineering physics was NOT my thing. 

 

Typically the NOAA forecasts give totals for whatever area you look for as well as maps with bands and totals on them(which often times change quite a bit leading up to and even during the storm but I digress)...

 

I will check out WUndeground.

Westerly flow typically favors the  southern tier down past Dunkirk and Cattaraugus and Chatauqua counties for snow, correct?

 

I thought fetch referred to how much of the open lake waters the wind was picking up moisture from, not the wind direction(although obviously the wind direction determines the amount of water it will be travelling over) 

 

Also is that the initial direction? Thought as storm systems pull away, wind direction usually starts out different than it ends up once that's out of the picture...and of course minor disturbances that come through can alter it for periods of time as well...

Edited December 3, 2021 by Big Turk

[Weatherman]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd want to have some evidence on that last point that it's reality and not a student's perception.  Like I said, if it were unambiguously the most accurate model, they'd use it (and not keep running several different models).  They run them all because sometimes one gives a better result, and sometimes another one does

 

I only know "Jill" about meteorology, but I spent years working with weather forecasts from various sources from a week out to just before in the course of flying across the country, Bahamas, Canada and stuff in a small plane that can't handle much weather.  We learned rapidly that you can predict that bad weather is gonna be between here and there, but you can't predict ***** about when it will get to specific locations two days out, or (sometimes) exactly where it will hit perpendicular to the front's travel.

 

And if your bud told you you can forecast accurately when bad weather will arrive at a specific location or how bad it will be - 4 days in advance - I don't want to be rude, but I'll just say he/she was having you on, Big Time.  Heck, it happened more than once that the forecast went to crap while we were enroute, in a plane with a 4 hr range, and we wound up asking for vectors to the nearest airport in the clear - when we were supposed to have had a clear flight well ahead of the front.

 

 

Just to note that little phrase I bolded "stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing" 

 

Like I said, they've already slowed it down from predicting it would arrive Sat-Sun, into arrive late Sun-Mon.  Could slow down further and not arrive until late Mon-Tues.  Could speed up.  Probably won't veer north or south given the geography of the area. 

 

And they think there's gonna be a "high wind event" "sometime during Sunday night to Monday night". 

 

So it might or might not impact the game.

Hapless, The ECWMF is the gold standard for deterministic atmospheric modeling.  The reason that it’s not widely used is because of the price tag associated with it.  In reality, all models are only as good as the forecaster interpreting, initializing and adjusting it to the live conditions.  If you want to see something awesome google NCEP HRRR Ensemble and look up probability of snow, winds, etc.  Ensembles are way more accurate than deterministic because they account for a chaotic environment by tuning the same model multiple time and perturbing certain parameters.  Once you do this you have a probabilistic model….my favorite.

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Haha, that's why I read the forecaster discussion! 

 

Trying to calculate all those calculations by hand was where I drew the line...that type of crazy math and engineering physics was NOT my thing. 

 

Typically the NOAA forecasts give totals for whatever area you look for as well as maps with bands and totals on them(which often times change quite a bit leading up to and even during the storm but I digress)...

 

I will check out WUndeground.

Westerly flow typically favors the  southern tier down past Dunkirk for snow, correct?

 

Also is that the initial direction? Thought as storm systems pull away, wind direction usually starts out different than it ends up once the system pulls away

Typically behind a cold front winds switch to the NW (frontside of the high).  If the high is moving to the south, you can start with a northwest flow changing to a westerly gradient flow.  

[Big Turk]

53 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

Not sure what else to tell you. I copy and pasted this from NOAA.

You believe whatever you like. And remember, Google is your friend. I've read plenty on the supercomputer weather models.

 

ECMWF

Global models with worldwide weather forecasts

The ECMWF is generally considered to be the most accurate global model, with the US's GFS slightly behind.

 

Except with Lake Effect Snow forecasts, which usually rely much more heavily on local forecasters experience which is why our local forecast will so often differ from the national ones in regards to that.

[Big Turk]

14 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Hapless, The ECWMF is the gold standard for deterministic atmospheric modeling.  The reason that it’s not widely used is because of the price tag associated with it.  In reality, all models are only as good as the forecaster interpreting, initializing and adjusting it to the live conditions.  If you want to see something awesome google NCEP HRRR Ensemble and look up probability of snow, winds, etc.  Ensembles are way more accurate than deterministic because they account for a chaotic environment by tuning the same model multiple time and perturbing certain parameters.  Once you do this you have a probabilistic model….my favorite.

Typically behind a cold front winds switch to the NW (frontside of the high).  If the high is moving to the south, you can start with a northwest flow changing to a westerly gradient flow.  

 

That's typically why the snow usually starts north of the city, shifts through the metro area and end up in the southern tier? Obviously depending on how far north/south the storm tracks...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Hapless, The ECWMF is the gold standard for deterministic atmospheric modeling.  The reason that it’s not widely used is because of the price tag associated with it.  

 

Wow, I had no idea in this day and age a model would be price-prohibitive.

 

It seems we agree though, that this far out we really can’t tell when the weather will arrive.

 

I will say for what it’s worth, that we in MO typically get weather that shows up in Ithaca 2-4 days later….and for whatever it’s worth it has been warmer, sooner, than forecast.

 

[Mr. WEO]

59 minutes ago, Process said:

Biggest game of the year and we are looking at rain/snow/25mph winds. So ridiculous.

 

It's 2021. It's Buffalo. If you're spending $1.5B+ on a new stadium that should last decades put a damn roof on it. 

 

Jim Kelly, Thurman, Reed, Bruce, Spiderman, Biscuit have to read stuff like this and shake their heads...or laugh out loud.

[ColoradoBills]

Sorry @Weatherman I look to Yanet for my forecasts.

 

 

[Weatherman]

39 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's typically why the snow usually starts north of the city, shifts through the metro area and end up in the southern tier? Obviously depending on how far north/south the storm tracks...

That’s all dependent on the track of the low.  If I remember correctly, the big snow makers are the Alberta Clippers because the move from North to South across the Great Lakes. And creates a very long northwesterly fetch across multiple Great Lakes and into the Buffalo region.

26 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Sorry @Weatherman I look to Yanet for my forecasts.

 

 

I would too…regardless of accuracy.  😂 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Weatherman said:

That’s all dependent on the track of the low.  If I remember correctly, the big snow makers are the Alberta Clippers because the move from North to South across the Great Lakes. And creates a very long northwesterly fetch across multiple Great Lakes and into the Buffalo region.

I would too…regardless of accuracy.  😂 

 

Yeah those sometimes have lake snow coming off Lake Huron and then usually connecting with Lake Ontario, which unfortunately typically ends up coming down over the area I live in(Lancaster)

[nucci]

it's going to be cold and windy

[Paul Costa]

Orchard Park on a December 6th evening. 30% chance of snow 20 mile an hour winds. Who on God’s green earth is surprised by this forecast 😬🥶

[716er]

Weather will be a small factor. We'll need to stop New England's running game to win whether there is is a foot of snow on the ground, it's 70 and sunny, or cold and windy.

 

IMO

[nucci]

11 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

Sorry @Weatherman I look to Yanet for my forecasts.

 

 

who wouldn't?

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

11 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

Sorry @Weatherman I look to Yanet for my forecasts.

 

 

That is truly unbelievable.