Weather Forecast for Monday

[BigDingus]

18 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

People love to watch games played in the snow, whether NFL/NCAA, just because they are pretty rare. Watching that first game of the year in a driving snow is always intriguing. People love to see snow games during the holiday season. Snow games are pretty rare in Buffalo too. Maybe once every five years do you get a decent snow game in Buffalo. People make it sound like after Halloween, every game in Buffalo is in a driving blizzard. It's ridiculous how people overreact to the Buffalo weather. I actually look forward to sitting at the stadium during a good snow every now and then. 

 

I'll be honest, I've been all on the "wish they'd build a dome!" train, but I enjoy watching snow games.

 

You're right in that it's an intriguing thing as a viewer. Even though I'd be 100% for a dome, snow games are a fun spectacle. 

 

Problem is this is a game against the Patriots, and it's a game for the division lead. Also, despite what people WANT us to be, our team doesn't have an advantage in bad weather anymore (and hasn't for a while). The Pats are a better coached team, don't turn the ball over, can run the ball very well, and are disciplined. And although our defense is great at takeaways, theirs is the only one better. Combine that with Josh turning the ball over more recently, this "could" be a recipe for disaster.

 

I haven't checked to see who's officiating the game, but the refs this year have been a mess. We've been very undisciplined during many games this year, and if we get a flag-happy crew in bad weather, Belichick can be as conservative as possible & stall us out. Slow/grindy running on top of drives being extended via penalties could wear our defense down FAST & never allow the offense to get in rhythm. 

 

Of course, this is all worst case scenario stuff, but it's also quite plausible. We haven't won back to back games since the Chiefs win October 10th, lost to a 1-win Jags team, lost by nearly 30 points at home to the Colts, and are facing the hottest team in the league. McDermott will have to coach masterfully, have the team more prepared than ever, and Allen will have to execute a nearly perfect game without turnovers. 

[Virgil]

I can’t decide if I should go or not. I’m partially afraid of a loss.  But a loss, bad weather, and a 6 hour drive home….

 

 

Ugh

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, RunJoshRun said:

Come on up!  The Weather Channel now says a high of 53 with temps falling and a rain/snow mix with winds at 26 mph for the game!   It will be a great game!!!

 

Can't tell if you are serious or being facetious.

The weather at game time is going to be HORRIBLE.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

I just saw that now they are calling for winds up to 60 mph for Monday Night. Should make things very interesting.

Just checked weather underground and I see nothing approaching those wind speeds. However, if such winds did materialize I’d argue the game would be a lot less interesting. 

[CincyBillsFan]

It's Thursday and everyone is freaking out by a weather forecast for Monday.  Am I missing something here?  What's their batting average for accurately predicting the weather 4 days out IN DECEMBER!

 

 

[Bubba Gump]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

It's Thursday and everyone is freaking out by a weather forecast for Monday.  Am I missing something here?  What's their batting average for accurately predicting the weather 4 days out IN DECEMBER!

 

 

 

Pretty good actually. And the thing about this game, is the forecast is getting worse, not better, as the days go by. And the Euro model, which is the most accurate, is predicting the harsh conditions.

[Stroke 17]

Other than the opener the  in stadium weather experience has been wet, cold and windy. As a season ticket holder of 43 years and now being 65 I must say it's not as much of an enjoyable experience as it once was. In the 90's I couldn't wait for the likes of the Dolphins, Raiders and even the Chiefs to have to play in our weather, now, I would be OK if was 30, snow and 15 mph winds but that's just my old bones talking.

 

Last January in the playoff game against the Ravens it was cold, snowy and windy but the Bills and we 6700 fans got it done.

 

As for Monday night, screw the weather its time to show up or shut up. As for us fans be LOUD and PROUD.  After this game there are 3 more late season games. I call that the home field advantage. Time for all of us, especially the team' to embrace the weather and use it to our advantage.

 

You can get it done, you can get it done,  whats more, you gotta get it done. GO BILLS

[Bubba Gump]

18 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Just checked weather underground and I see nothing approaching those wind speeds. However, if such winds did materialize I’d argue the game would be a lot less interesting. 

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Bubba Gump

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

I just saw that now they are calling for winds up to 60 mph for Monday Night. Should make things very interesting.

 

Do you think you could be specific on who "they" is and where you are seeing this?

 

[Governor]

People like to watch snow games because it usually turns into a bloopers reel. 
 

That’s not fun when it’s your team and you must win.

[Success]

3 minutes ago, Governor said:

People like to watch snow games because it usually turns into a bloopers reel. 
 

That’s not fun when it’s your team and you must win.

 

Wind is so much worse.  I keep thinking of that Ravens game.  We only scored one offensive TD.

 

It's gonna be tough, but it was always gonna be tough.  I kind of wish the "wind game" was in NE so we could take more advantage of being home, but if wishes were fishes....

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

Pretty good actually. And the thing about this game, is the forecast is getting worse, not better, as the days go by. And the Euro model, which is the most accurate, is predicting the harsh conditions.

 

1) No, the Euro model is not unambiguously the "most accurate".

If the Euro model were the most accurate, meteorologists stateside would be using it.  They don't care who invented it, they just want an accurate means to forecast the weather.  It tends to be the most aggressive about forecasting bad weather at times - that doesn't mean it's the most accurate.

2) This is Thursday right now.    We know with fair certainty that some bad weather with a front will go through between now and Tuesday am, but we don't know exactly WHEN.  We won't know with reasonable accuracy until Sat. night/Sun. am.

 

8 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

 

OK, thank you for giving your source.

 

This is a general forecast for the period Friday through Weds, to give advance warning to people who need to "batten the hatches" so to speak.  It's over a broad geographic area - 4 counties, about 100 miles N/S and E/W- and "Monday" is kind of choosing the middle of the time period.

[Boatdrinks]

In my experience , WeatherUnderground is typically most accurate . 

[Governor]

4 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Wind is so much worse.  I keep thinking of that Ravens game.  We only scored one offensive TD.

 

It's gonna be tough, but it was always gonna be tough.  I kind of wish the "wind game" was in NE so we could take more advantage of being home, but if wishes were fishes....

 

I agree. We’ve had pretty bad luck with that lately. 
 

We have to remember that Jones might struggle terribly in high winds but I’m not sure we can stop their run for long.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

In my experience , WeatherUnderground is typically most accurate . 

And what does that say? Pretty much same as others? 

Just now, Governor said:

I agree. We’ve had pretty bad luck with that lately. 
 

We have to remember that Jones might struggle terribly in high winds but I’m not sure we can stop their run for long.

Maybe, but not much with those short passes they like

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

It's Thursday and everyone is freaking out by a weather forecast for Monday.  Am I missing something here?  What's their batting average for accurately predicting the weather 4 days out IN DECEMBER!

 

Very bad.  See "recommended" post by Weatherman. 

 

What we can know at this point with fair accuracy: bad weather that is likely to go through the area between Saturday and Tuesday

What we can't know at this point, is exactly when it will get there.  Right now, the forecast shows the front slowing down and arriving Monday rather than Sunday, with the worst of it through the area by Monday night.  It's also forcasting warmer weather to be associated with the front.

 

And yes, windy, but not 50 mph winds.  22 mpg.

 

But we're really not going to know the timing with any accuracy until Saturday or so.   There's really just not much sense everybody getting their knickers into a knot over it at this point.

[Bubba Gump]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

1) No, the Euro model is not unambiguously the "most accurate".

If the Euro model were the most accurate, meteorologists stateside would be using it.  They don't care who invented it, they just want an accurate means to forecast the weather.  It tends to be the most aggressive about forecasting bad weather at times - that doesn't mean it's the most accurate.

2) This is Thursday right now.    We know with fair certainty that some bad weather with a front will go through between now and Tuesday am, but we don't know exactly WHEN.  We won't know with reasonable accuracy until Sat. night/Sun. am.

 

And to my knowledge, most U.S. meteorologists so use the Euro model. A good friend of mine went to school to become a meteorologist and said most, if not all weatherman/women use the U.S., the Canadian and the Euro models. And that historically the Euro model is most accurate. I don't know jack about meteorology, just going by what I'm told by people in the know.

[Big Turk]

On 12/1/2021 at 12:40 AM, Weatherman said:

Few thing:

 

1) Models are highly inaccurate this far out (systems speed up/slow down) drastically due to changes with the Jet Stream orientation and intensity.

 

2) This is 00Z (Greenwich Mean Time) on Monday which is actually Sunday Night.

 

3) This panel show the warm front to the north of Buffalo which you will see a southerly warm air advection associated with it.  This could lead to rain showers but highly unlikely you will see a winters mix.  Once we are on the backside of the low or cold front wind direction will shift from the NW (cold air advection) and could create a lake effect snow event with higher winds due to the onset of higher pressure creating a tightened temperature/pressure gradient (the forcing mechanism for winds).  Long range models I’ve looked at have a westerly flow off of Lake Erie at game time.  Since it’s early winter and the lake is yet to freeze over we can still get some lake effect snow with a westerly fetch.  Again, way to early to forecast with any degree of certainty.  

 

4). Recommend the following links to higher resolution products once we get 48-60 hours out.  
 

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rrfs_na_3km_dev1_conus_jet

 

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/meteodata.php?BackHour=0&sta=KBUF&TempBox=Y&DewBox=Y&SkyBox=Y&WindSpdBox=Y&WindGustBox=Y&WindDirBox=Y&CigBox=Y&VisBox=Y&ObvBox=Y&PopoBox=Y&ConvBox=Y&LightningBox=Y&PtypeBox=Y

 

My overall favorite non government site:

 

https://www.windy.com/-Precip-type-ptype?ptype,2021120706,41.558,-83.672,5

 

 

 

 

Well went from clear with 11 mph winds earlier in the week to showers/snow with 23 mph winds...not trending in the right direction.  

 

Obviously it's still only Thursday night, but it's looking like even if the system goes through earlier in the day, we are then setting up for Lake Effect Snow behind it(from the forecasters discussion on NOAA Buffalo).

 

"A deepening area of low pressure is progged to cut the Great Lakes from the Mid-West and track northwest of western and north central NY Sunday-Monday. Signals in the ensembles from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF ENS are surfacing that show a potential wind event across the region sometime during Sunday night-Monday night. Many parameters such as sharp pressure rises and cold air advection behind a strong cold front associated with a deepening surface low pressure match local climatology for high wind events across western and north central NY. Widespread rain will likely move across the region ahead of the cold front Sunday-Monday. Stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing. Temperatures will likely start off in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday morning and fall through the day into Monday night. Lake effect snow showers will likely begin behind the cold front Monday-Tuesday resulting in accumulating snow for some locations east of the Lakes."

40 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

In my experience , WeatherUnderground is typically most accurate . 

I'd say NOAA Buffalo and especially the forecasters discussion is the place to go...from a former Meteorology Major

Edited December 3, 2021 by Big Turk

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well went from clear with 11 mph winds earlier in the week to showers/snow with 23 mph winds...not trending in the right direction.  

 

Obviously it's still only Thursday night, but it's looking like even if the system goes through earlier in the day, we are then setting up for Lake Effect Snow behind it(from the forecasters discussion on NOAA Buffalo).

 

"A deepening area of low pressure is progged to cut the Great Lakes from the Mid-West and track northwest of western and north central NY Sunday-Monday. Signals in the ensembles from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF ENS are surfacing that show a potential wind event across the region sometime during Sunday night-Monday night. Many parameters such as sharp pressure rises and cold air advection behind a strong cold front associated with a deepening surface low pressure match local climatology for high wind events across western and north central NY. Widespread rain will likely move across the region ahead of the cold front Sunday-Monday. Stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing. Temperatures will likely start off in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday morning and fall through the day into Monday night. Lake effect snow showers will likely begin behind the cold front Monday-Tuesday resulting in accumulating snow for some locations east of the Lakes."

I'd say NOAA Buffalo and especially the forecasters discussion is the place to go...from a former Meteorology Major

Just my personal experience , we all have our favorite sources. Yours may differ. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

And to my knowledge, most U.S. meteorologists so use the Euro model. A good friend of mine went to school to become a meteorologist and said most, if not all weatherman/women use the U.S., the Canadian and the Euro models. And that historically the Euro model is most accurate. I don't know jack about meteorology, just going by what I'm told by people in the know.

 

I'd want to have some evidence on that last point that it's reality and not a student's perception.  Like I said, if it were unambiguously the most accurate model, they'd use it (and not keep running several different models).  They run them all because sometimes one gives a better result, and sometimes another one does

 

I only know "Jill" about meteorology, but I spent years working with weather forecasts from various sources from a week out to just before in the course of flying across the country, Bahamas, Canada and stuff in a small plane that can't handle much weather.  We learned rapidly that you can predict that bad weather is gonna be between here and there, but you can't predict ***** about when it will get to specific locations two days out, or (sometimes) exactly where it will hit perpendicular to the front's travel.

 

And if your bud told you you can forecast accurately when bad weather will arrive at a specific location or how bad it will be - 4 days in advance - I don't want to be rude, but I'll just say he/she was having you on, Big Time.  Heck, it happened more than once that the forecast went to crap while we were enroute, in a plane with a 4 hr range, and we wound up asking for vectors to the nearest airport in the clear - when we were supposed to have had a clear flight well ahead of the front.

 

20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well went from clear with 11 mph winds earlier in the week to showers/snow with 23 mph winds...not trending in the right direction.  

 

Obviously it's still only Thursday night, but it's looking like even if the system goes through earlier in the day, we are then setting up for Lake Effect Snow behind it(from the forecasters discussion on NOAA Buffalo).

 

"A deepening area of low pressure is progged to cut the Great Lakes from the Mid-West and track northwest of western and north central NY Sunday-Monday. Signals in the ensembles from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF ENS are surfacing that show a potential wind event across the region sometime during Sunday night-Monday night. Many parameters such as sharp pressure rises and cold air advection behind a strong cold front associated with a deepening surface low pressure match local climatology for high wind events across western and north central NY. Widespread rain will likely move across the region ahead of the cold front Sunday-Monday. Stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing. Temperatures will likely start off in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday morning and fall through the day into Monday night. Lake effect snow showers will likely begin behind the cold front Monday-Tuesday resulting in accumulating snow for some locations east of the Lakes."

I'd say NOAA Buffalo and especially the forecasters discussion is the place to go...from a former Meteorology Major

 

Just to note that little phrase I bolded "stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing" 

 

Like I said, they've already slowed it down from predicting it would arrive Sat-Sun, into arrive late Sun-Mon.  Could slow down further and not arrive until late Mon-Tues.  Could speed up.  Probably won't veer north or south given the geography of the area. 

 

And they think there's gonna be a "high wind event" "sometime during Sunday night to Monday night". 

 

So it might or might not impact the game.