Here we go again.... Bills beat a decimated shell of a team in NO and now comes the test

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fun Fact.  Allen is 3rd in the league for Air yards/completion at 6.9.  He is 30th in the league for YAC/completion. 

Last season he was 7th and 24th, respectively - with 0.5 yards per completion less than this season. 

Over a few hundred completions, that adds up.

 

If you look at Beasley's YAC this year, it's down by 0.6 ypc, but my point is it's not just Beasley.  Diggs is often down.

 

The completions Allen is having to take are often shorter, and against tighter coverage than last year.

 

 

 

Morse has been our best OLman most of the year.  The problem is he's not a power guy as a run blocker.  The Bills need to make up their mind what kind of run game they want, and go out and get the OLmen to run it.

 

That's why I think we need a shifty guy that can make moves in a phone booth.  They are hard to find but that would be a perfect compliment to defenses trying to take away the deep ball.  Of course a running game helps too.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Morse has been our best OLman most of the year.  The problem is he's not a power guy as a run blocker.  The Bills need to make up their mind what kind of run game they want, and go out and get the OLmen to run it.

 

Agree, Morse has been our most consistent guy this season. I'd say he has pretty much played the same as he did last year. The regression has been all around him. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again are the Bills a better team then NE, and should they not win on Monday?  I hate this 55/45 crap.  If they are that close on paper and the Bills at home, then yes 55/45.  I however contend the Bills are a much better team then NE and should they lose Monday they need to take a real long hard look in the mirror and yes McD should be held accountable (as he's skated this year).

 

How are the Bills a "much better team" than NE?

 

More fun fact:

Bills currently tied with Cowboys for 2nd in the league on offense (29.6 ppg).  NE and Colts are 1.6 points behind, with 28 PPG

Bills (2nd) currently just behind the Patriots (1st) for points given up on defense (15.8 vs 16.5)

 

When a team has 1 more win, a better w/l percentage, is slightly better for points given up and slightly worse for points scored, I don't know how you can make the argument they're a much better team.

 

Do we have the potential to be a much better team, I do believe that.  But to date, we have not demonstrated that potential on a consistent basis.

 

And I do surely hope the team does not think as you do, because it seems to me part of the problem is at times we come out believing we're the better team and we just have to show up.  And then we get punched in the mouth.

 

[Big Turk]

Same could be said for New England beating a Titans team missing their top 2 WR's in Brown and Jones and Derrick Henry.  Bills weren't the ones who allowed nearly 300 yards rushing to 2 no name street free agent caliber RB's when they literally had nobody to throw the ball to like the Pats did tho.

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fun Fact.  Allen is 3rd in the league for Air yards/completion at 6.9.  He is 30th in the league for YAC/completion. 

Last season he was 7th and 24th, respectively - with 0.5 yards per completion less than this season. 

Over a few hundred completions, that adds up.

 

If you look at Beasley's YAC this year, it's down by 0.6 ypc, but my point is it's not just Beasley.  Diggs is often down.

 

The completions Allen is having to take are often shorter, and against tighter coverage than last year.

 

Part of this is the type of routes Daboll prefers...lots of hitches and sideline routes that afford little to no YAC opportunities.  Unsure why we almost never run any type of slants that would allow Allen to hit them in stride close to the LOS and let them run.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Big Turk

[teef]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

If your hair is thinning that much...why don't you just shave it?

how dare you!  if i have anything going on for me at 44, it's my beautiful head of hair with next to no gray.

[Fan in Chicago]

On 11/29/2021 at 8:49 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That game last night was stunning.

 

Sometimes I feel that Allen and the Bills offense have had it so ingrained in them "don't turn the ball over.  we can't win if you turn the ball over" that once the turnovers mount up, they psychologically give up.

 

Ravens: 4 interceptions, No Problem.

 

I hope the Bills took note, not that it's OK to throw 4 interceptions, but that a Terrible Horrible Very Bad Turnover Day can be overcome.

 

Last night reminded me of the Bills MNF where Romo threw 5 INTs and still walked out with a win. The Browns' D played well with the takeaways but their O blew it by only scoring 10. 

But your point on not hanging your head and still going about your business, makes a lot of sense. You can bet that BB is (again) training for turnovers and ST advantages. My bet is that, very early, he will bait Allen to run and then go for the fumble, which Allen is prone to do. Not only will that get the ball but also seek to affect him psychologically.

 

This is a massive test for the entire Bills team. 

[Billsfan1972]

25 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The Ravens are better than the Dolphins and got handled.

The Titans are better than the Jags and Jets and lost.

The Cowboys are better than the Broncos and got shelled.

The Bucs are better than WFT and lost.

 

Football isn't linear.  Your opinion is your opinion.  The Bills being a lot better than the Pats is your opinion.  Many people have the Pats better than the Bills.

We are favored by 3.5 at home meaning Vegas essentially sees this as a toss up.

No the Bills are a better team top to bottom.  The Pats are playing better.  The Bills were tabbed as SB contenders and are still the #2 pick.

 

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2021/11/29/22807220/super-bowl-odds-2022-week-13-movement-buccaneers-packers-patriots-bengals-49ers

 

Quit making excuses.  The Bills should win.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, teef said:

how dare you!  if i have anything going on for me at 44, it's my beautiful head of hair with next to no gray.

 

I have a lot of gray on the sides and beard....and a widows peak up top.

[teef]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I have a lot of gray on the sides and beard....and a widows peak up top.

but did you hear that the bills were tabbed to win the superbowl, and should win this game?

Edited November 30, 2021 by teef

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

but did you hear that the bills were tabbed to win the superbowl, and should win this game?

Can't help yourself can you?  How about an opinion (or is that too much to ask)?

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Can't help yourself can you?  How about an opinion (or is that too much to ask)?

 

I'm sure Belichick is coaching this upcoming game as though the Bills are a SB favorite - he must be in awe

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No the Bills are a better team top to bottom.  The Pats are playing better.  The Bills were tabbed as SB contenders and are still the #2 pick.

 

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2021/11/29/22807220/super-bowl-odds-2022-week-13-movement-buccaneers-packers-patriots-bengals-49ers

 

Quit making excuses.  The Bills should win.

 

 

This is why you can't have an adult conversation with you.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, teef said:

but did you hear that the bills were tabbed to win the superbowl, and should win this game?

 

I know like, they shouldn't even play the game.

2 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

I'm sure Belichick is coaching this upcoming game as though the Bills are a SB favorite - he must be in awe

 

I'm in awe with 1972's posts.

[BuffaninSarasota]

6 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Can't help yourself can you?  How about an opinion (or is that too much to ask)?

 

but...but....but .... NFL.com has the Pats ranked at #5 & Bills at #6; I guess that must mean NE should win this game, right?

[teef]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Can't help yourself can you?  How about an opinion (or is that too much to ask)?

why?  so you can post the same thing over and over?  we've been here before with you.  just post last year's box scores, and let us know again that the bills were picked to go to the sb.  people will give you countless reasons why this doesn't mean anything, yet you'll blow it off, and repeat what you've already said.  we get it.

 

did you notice that the only time this thread would go off the rails a bit is when you were involved.  posters were having decent discussions until you chimed in...in your own thread.  don't blame poster's reactions on me.  look at how you handle posting, and deal with yourself.  

Edited November 30, 2021 by teef

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

but...but....but .... NFL.com has the Pats ranked at #5 & Bills at #6; I guess that must mean NE should win this game, right?

 

So does ESPN!

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/NFLpowerranking1130/nfl-power-rankings-week-13-1-32-poll-plus-checking-team-confidence-rating

 

So does CBS!

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-13-power-rankings-all-seems-right-as-packers-buccaneers-chiefs-and-bills-earn-spots-in-top-10/

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So the statement was intentionally tongue in cheek. I don't think it is all about threat to run though. While I don't deny that a bigger threat to run would help I think it is just that our offensive line has played objectively poorly. The individuals on it have just played less well than last year. I actually think the truth might be that they got away with a lot more uncalled holding last year when holding penalties across the league were down 39% on 2019. That number has rebounded big time in 2021. I suspect we might have overvalued this line's ability to pass protect last year as a result of way games were officiated. Which would, in part, help explain why there was the strange discrepancy last year in that the Bills line did the supposed harder part of the job - pass blocking - better than it did the supposed easy part of the job - run blocking - although the personnel we have plays into that too. 

 

Allen is 6th in passing yards because at times he has overcome the bad protection. Our line play has been the biggest issue with this team in 2021. 

 

Well.  There's no question in my mind that individuals on our OL have objectively just played less well than last year.  Last year Dawkins looked like a franchise LT, worth every penny we paid him.  Last year Williams looked like he'd "solved" the RT position.  Both have played like wet paper at times this year.

 

Interesting question about uncalled holding penalties last season.  I found data at https://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties.html?yr=2021&sort=oh

If I crunched it correctly, last year there were 22.8 holding penalties per week.  This year, 34.8.  That's a huge increase.

 

Bills are currently at 14 holding penalties or 1.27/game vs. last season 1 per game.  That doesn't sound like a big increase, but of course the line adjusts its play to avoid being penalized, so you could have a point.  I tend to think that linemen tend to hold when they're getting their asses whupped, though, and to my eyes that's just happening more often especially on the tackles. 

 

Allen has good protection at times, and at times he pushes it too far - he has a throw for decent yards he could take in 2.6 seconds but he waits for a play that takes 3.5 seconds to develop and the line breaks down at 3 seconds.

 

FWIW, Pro-football reference gives a "pocket time" stat defined as time from snap, until either the ball is thrown or "pressure collapses the pocket".  The median value is 2.4 (range 2.2-2.6).  The Bills are at 2.4.  I have some skepticism about their advanced stats since @BarleyNY pointed out an error early on in the year, but this suggests to me that perhaps perception doesn't match reality when it comes to evaluating the Bills OL play.  (Last year the Bills were among the league's best at 2.6.)

 

I'm far from a run blocking expert - some on here know in 2018 I spent a miserable year trying to figure out what the Bills were actually trying to do with their run blocking and begging for help (usually the help amounted to "well I think it's supposed to be this, but it's actually a total mess").  But to my perception, the OL doesn't deserve the share of the blame it gets for run issues. 

 

Part of the problem is how big of a "tell" our formation is.  We pass 70% of the time from shotgun (this is down from 75% a few games ago).  We run 70% of the time from under center (again, down from 75% a few weeks ago).  I'm going to guess that down and distance skew that even more.  (We're actually more successful running from shotgun and passing from under center in terms of Y/A - just because of the novelty I guess.)  When we're running from under center with Motor and Moss, they don't have the speed to get to the edge so our vocabulary is limited.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, teef said:

why?  so you can post the same thing over and over?  we've been here before with you.  just post last year's box scores, and let us know again that the bills were picked to go to the sb.  people will give you countless reasons why this doesn't mean anything, yet you'll blow it off, and repeat what you've already said.  we get it.

 

did you notice that the only time this thread would go off the rails a bit is when you were involved.  posters were having decent discussions until you chimed in...in your own thread.  don't blame poster's reactions on me.  look at how you handle posting, and deal with yourself.  

 

Are these the lyrics to an Eagles song?  It's beautiful.

[Billzgobowlin]

20 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Yeah, Brown hammered us in that game.  Much more effective contested catch receiver than... checks notes... cody hollister?

Even though he didn't do much he still had to be gameplanned for.  Also you cherrypicked one person out of three.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well.  There's no question in my mind that individuals on our OL have objectively just played less well than last year.  Last year Dawkins looked like a franchise LT, worth every penny we paid him.  Last year Williams looked like he'd "solved" the RT position.  Both have played like wet paper at times this year.

 

Interesting question about uncalled holding penalties last season.  I found data at https://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties.html?yr=2021&sort=oh

If I crunched it correctly, last year there were 22.8 holding penalties per week.  This year, 34.8.  That's a huge increase.

 

Bills are currently at 14 holding penalties or 1.27/game vs. last season 1 per game.  That doesn't sound like a big increase, but of course the line adjusts its play to avoid being penalized, so you could have a point.  I tend to think that linemen tend to hold when they're getting their asses whupped, though, and to my eyes that's just happening more often especially on the tackles. 

 

Allen has good protection at times, and at times he pushes it too far - he has a throw for decent yards he could take in 2.6 seconds but he waits for a play that takes 3.5 seconds to develop and the line breaks down at 3 seconds.

 

FWIW, Pro-football reference gives a "pocket time" stat defined as time from snap, until either the ball is thrown or "pressure collapses the pocket".  The median value is 2.4 (range 2.2-2.6).  The Bills are at 2.4.  I have some skepticism about their advanced stats since @BarleyNY pointed out an error early on in the year, but this suggests to me that perhaps perception doesn't match reality when it comes to evaluating the Bills OL play.  (Last year the Bills were among the league's best at 2.6.)

 

I'm far from a run blocking expert - some on here know in 2018 I spent a miserable year trying to figure out what the Bills were actually trying to do with their run blocking and begging for help (usually the help amounted to "well I think it's supposed to be this, but it's actually a total mess").  But to my perception, the OL doesn't deserve the share of the blame it gets for run issues. 

 

Part of the problem is how big of a "tell" our formation is.  We pass 70% of the time from shotgun (this is down from 75% a few games ago).  We run 70% of the time from under center (again, down from 75% a few weeks ago).  I'm going to guess that down and distance skew that even more.  (We're actually more successful running from shotgun and passing from under center in terms of Y/A - just because of the novelty I guess.)  When we're running from under center with Motor and Moss, they don't have the speed to get to the edge so our vocabulary is limited.

 

 

 

The formation tell is definitely something the Bills have been trying to address since the Jags game. Think they accept they were too predictable. Setting a tendency is not always a bad thing if it gives you a big moments counter punch but 75% is too high, for certain. Equally agree the point about the running backs. I have said this before that I am not sure the backs they have drafted really compliment the way they try and block and the way they want their offense to attack more generally. I don't think the backs suck or necessarily that the line totally sucks. But the line is the bigger problem of the two for me. This season it has been the critical flaw on this football team - and the injuries / covid / constant shuffling of positions has not helped. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No the Bills are a better team top to bottom.

 

How are the Bills a better team top to bottom?

If you go over to ItalianBills thread on position group to position group breakdown, the consensus appraisal seems to be very close talent wise.

 

22 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Quit making excuses.  The Bills should win.

 

The Bills should win why?  Because you think they have more talent?  Talent is as talent does - the Bills loss to the Jags showed that if nothing else.

 

No one can have a reasonable discussion with you if you dismiss any counterpoints anyone makes with "Quit making excuses The Bills should win".   You just make yourself sound like a Bot.