Here we go again.... Bills beat a decimated shell of a team in NO and now comes the test

[colin]

with tre out the d will have some challenges, but star and 49 being in means we have who we need to be fast and physical up front.

 

on O we need to set the tone, and a healthy top 5 guys on the field OL is the key to that.  brown brings so much juice it makes the whole line better.  we need dabol to forget his own tendencies and mix it up and instead of the "hit the open man" O, we need to scheme ways to get bease and most of all diggs the ball.  if Diggs goes off NE is toast.

 

aaaaand of course we have to avoid the billsiest way to lose, which is our special teams getting kicks/punts blocked or just swimming in laundry all day.  as a matter of fact, the O and D need to have a good fear of the color yellow.

[Billsfan1972]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean they are still the #1 ranked defense in the NFL because the official NFL way of ranking defenses is yards. They are all the way down at #2 in points. 

 

Do I think the schedule plays into those rankings somewhat? Yes. But so does it every single year for every single defense. The Bills defense was ranked 14th (and 16th in points) last year. I think they were probably objectively better than that but they played a lot of good offenses last year. Welcome to the NFL. You play the schedule in front of you and they are not even team to team or year to year. 

So as you point out they're #1 in defense, their offense still formidable (5th in yards/gm and 2nd points/gm), are at home and should win..... 😜 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So as you point out they're #1 in defense, their offense still formidable (5th in yards/gm and 2nd points/gm), are at home and should win..... 😜 

 

New England are the #1 defense in the NFL and over their 6 game win streak are a top offense too. This is going to be a tough football game against a good opponent. I make the Bills a slight favourite, but it is a 55/45 type game for me. 

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

New England are the #1 defense in the NFL and over their 6 game win streak are a top offense too. This is going to be a tough football game against a good opponent. I make the Bills a slight favourite, but it is a 55/45 type game for me. 

 

Can NE get to the QB with just a 4 man rush consistently?  That's my concern. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Can NE get to the QB with just a 4 man rush consistently?  That's my concern. 

 

Against our oline? Delaware Valley University backups could get to the QB with a 4 man rush..... 

Edited November 30, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Billsfan1972]

50 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

New England are the #1 defense in the NFL and over their 6 game win streak are a top offense too. This is going to be a tough football game against a good opponent. I make the Bills a slight favourite, but it is a 55/45 type game for me. 

Ye of little faith.  If the Bills are a SB contender, which I'm 100% convinced they are, I have it 90/10 (75/25 in NE).  Along with everything else NE is due for an ass kicking. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Against our oline? Delaware Valley University backups could get to the QB with a 4 man rush..... 

 

I think with Dawkins - Feliciano - Morse - Williams - Brown we can get by.  Not good, but adequate enough to let Josh make some plays.

I definitely think we are signing at least 1 starting interior lineman and drafting 2 on day 2 in the offseason.

 

I think what we are missing on offense yac WR.  If we have teams playing us 2 deep, we need someone who can create plays underneath.  Get a quick guy with some wiggle.  Beasley gets open but not dangerous after the catch.

4 minutes ago, teef said:

 

If your hair is thinning that much...why don't you just shave it?

Edited November 30, 2021 by Royale with Cheese

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think with Dawkins - Feliciano - Morse - Williams - Brown we can get by.  Not good, but adequate enough to let Josh make some plays.

I definitely think we are signing at least 1 starting interior lineman and drafting 2 on day 2 in the offseason.

 

I think what we are missing on offense yac WR.  If we have teams playing us 2 deep, we need someone who can create plays underneath.  Get a quick guy with some wiggle.  Beasley gets open but not dangerous after the catch.

 

 

I do think in fairness on the oline all the chopping and changing is a problem as well as the talent. If they had got that group (or Ike over Mongo for me) on the field consistently it might have found a groove to be at least serviceable. I listed all the different combinations and the chopping and changing last week. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do think in fairness on the oline all the chopping and changing is a problem as well as the talent. If they had got that group (or Ike over Mongo for me) on the field consistently it might have found a groove to be at least serviceable. I listed all the different combinations and the chopping and changing last week. 

 

Is Mongo struggling at LG too?  I noticed at RG, he was getting pushed back consistently.

From what I understand, the LG doesn't face as much single match ups and they're up against the 3 tech?  

[dave mcbride]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think with Dawkins - Feliciano - Morse - Williams - Brown we can get by.  Not good, but adequate enough to let Josh make some plays.

I definitely think we are signing at least 1 starting interior lineman and drafting 2 on day 2 in the offseason.

 

I think what we are missing on offense yac WR.  If we have teams playing us 2 deep, we need someone who can create plays underneath.  Get a quick guy with some wiggle.  Beasley gets open but not dangerous after the catch.

 

If your hair is thinning that much...why don't you just shave it?

I think Beasley right now is playing with broken ribs. He is clearly avoiding contact -- even going down before the first down marker a couple of times untouched -- when he can to protect himself.  Hopefully, they're nearly healed up. When he's healthy, he has wiggle. He's extremely quick.

[Thriftygamer83]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I showed last years box scores.  The Bills were much better when not scared of NE's secondary & passing.  Sure run the ball and make sure NE respects it, but this team wins through the air.

You win it first on the ground, then you win it through the air, and that's how this teams setup.  Right now we've got Matt whose emerging and we just played against a team which tried to run the Jax version of a defense.  Which may even be better then Jax in some respects it all depends.  

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I think Beasley right now is playing with broken ribs. He is clearly avoiding contact -- even going down before the first down marker a couple of times untouched -- when he can to protect himself.  Hopefully, they're nearly healed up. When he's healthy, he has wiggle. He's extremely quick.

 

Yes but he's not a big YAC guy even with healthy.  He's not a guy who is going to out run anyone once the ball is in his hands or a guy to shake someone is small spaces and getting huge yards.  

 

He sits on a zone, gets open and gets a few yards after the catch.  He's not a guy that has a threat of taking a 5 yard slant for 30.  He's very good at getting open and moving the chains....we need him too.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Is Mongo struggling at LG too?  I noticed at RG, he was getting pushed back consistently.

From what I understand, the LG doesn't face as much single match ups and they're up against the 3 tech?  

 

I think Feliciano has been bad this year pretty much full stop. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Against our oline? Delaware Valley University backups could get to the QB with a 4 man rush..... 

 

C'mon Man.  Allen isn't 6th in the league in passing yards because he gets no protection from his OL.

 

When a 4 man rush is getting to the QB, there's a reason, and it has to do with perception of threat to run.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Feliciano has been bad this year pretty much full stop. 

 

You think we're keeping Morse after this year?  Is he a problem in the interior as well?

[Billsfan1972]

Again are the Bills a better team then NE, and should they not win on Monday?  I hate this 55/45 crap.  If they are that close on paper and the Bills at home, then yes 55/45.  I however contend the Bills are a much better team then NE and should they lose Monday they need to take a real long hard look in the mirror and yes McD should be held accountable (as he's skated this year).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes but he's not a big YAC guy even with healthy.  He's not a guy who is going to out run anyone once the ball is in his hands or a guy to shake someone is small spaces and getting huge yards.  

 

He sits on a zone, gets open and gets a few yards after the catch.  He's not a guy that has a threat of taking a 5 yard slant for 30.  He's very good at getting open and moving the chains....we need him too.

 

Fun Fact.  Allen is 3rd in the league for Air yards/completion at 6.9.  He is 30th in the league for YAC/completion. 

Last season he was 7th and 24th, respectively - with 0.5 yards per completion less than this season. 

Over a few hundred completions, that adds up.

 

If you look at Beasley's YAC this year, it's down by 0.6 ypc, but my point is it's not just Beasley.  Diggs is often down.

 

The completions Allen is having to take are often shorter, and against tighter coverage than last year.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You think we're keeping Morse after this year?  Is he a problem in the interior as well?

 

Morse has been our best OLman most of the year.  The problem is he's not a power guy as a run blocker.  The Bills need to make up their mind what kind of run game they want, and go out and get the OLmen to run it.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again are the Bills a better team then NE, and should they not win on Monday?  I hate this 55/45 crap.  If they are that close on paper and the Bills at home, then yes 55/45.  I however contend the Bills are a much better team then NE and should they lose Monday they need to take a real long hard look in the mirror and yes McD should be held accountable (as he's skated this year).

 

The Ravens are better than the Dolphins and got handled.

The Titans are better than the Jags and Jets and lost.

The Cowboys are better than the Broncos and got shelled.

The Bucs are better than WFT and lost.

 

Football isn't linear.  Your opinion is your opinion.  The Bills being a lot better than the Pats is your opinion.  Many people have the Pats better than the Bills.

We are favored by 3.5 at home meaning Vegas essentially sees this as a toss up.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

C'mon Man.  Allen isn't 6th in the league in passing yards because he gets no protection from his OL.

 

When a 4 man rush is getting to the QB, there's a reason, and it has to do with perception of threat to run.

 

 

So the statement was intentionally tongue in cheek. I don't think it is all about threat to run though. While I don't deny that a bigger threat to run would help I think it is just that our offensive line has played objectively poorly. The individuals on it have just played less well than last year. I actually think the truth might be that they got away with a lot more uncalled holding last year when holding penalties across the league were down 39% on 2019. That number has rebounded big time in 2021. I suspect we might have overvalued this line's ability to pass protect last year as a result of way games were officiated. Which would, in part, help explain why there was the strange discrepancy last year in that the Bills line did the supposed harder part of the job - pass blocking - better than it did the supposed easy part of the job - run blocking - although the personnel we have plays into that too. 

 

Allen is 6th in passing yards because at times he has overcome the bad protection. Our line play has been the biggest issue with this team in 2021.