Bills vs Pats: “pound for pound” teams analysis

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Your honest prediction ? Gimme your cut. Mine is 65/35 Bills. 

 

Right now, 538's ELO system is giving the Bills a 56% chance of winning the game.  

[Maine-iac]

5 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Here we are ! After this last Pats win, i want to compare the Bills and the Pats in every aspect and see what you think about.

 

- HC: pats

- QB: Bills

- RB: pats (with Brida maybe even)

- OL: pats

- DL: bills

- WR corps: Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Bills

- KICKER: Bills

- SP TEAM: even ?

 

Maybe i forgot to consider some other aspect, if so feel free to add or correct me. That’s the way i see things in this next matchup. To me, the most important thing McDermott and Daboll have to do, is to find a way to give Josh more time to throw and involve Knox much more, because to me Knox is not at Gronk or Kelce level, but to me is a very good TE. 

 

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Right now, 538's ELO system is giving the Bills a 56% chance of winning the game.  

 

What is 538’s prediction record?

[ngbills]

With Breida? Haha. The guy barely plays. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We have one of the worst RB groups in the league. 

[Joe Ferguson]

-Refs: Patriots times a million. 

[DrPJax]

7 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Thanks for your correction. DL Pats ? Even with our full healthy DL ?

Yes, we have no one close to Judon this year producing sacks.  Pressure is not the same as a sack taking someone out of fg range or putting the o behind the chains with lost yardage.    

[Italian Bills]

5 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

It’s simple. If we play disciplined football (penalties and turnovers) and our O-line holds up to a reasonable level, we win. Pats capitalize on turnovers and rarely make them. If Allen gets hit/pressured early he can be rattled. I don’t think he trusts his offensive line so his internal clock has sped up.

Very good point: the very first two or three possessions will be crucial in the game outcome. 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

You forgot LB

 

- HC: Edge Pats

- QB:  Edge Bills

- RB: Slight edge Pats

- OL: Edge Pats

- DL: Slight Edge Pats

- LB: Edge Bills

- WR corps:  Big Edge Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Slight Edge Bills

- KICKER: Edge Bills

- SP TEAM: Even

 

Kicker: Dead even

Safeties: Bills

Corners: Pats (w/o Tre)

....everything else spot on

[Putin]

F Mac Jones that funny looking biotch 

[Nelius]

No TE comparison? I'm assuming it's lumped into receivers but that's going to be one of the premier match-ups this week in my opinion.

 

What TE currently leads the NFL in TD receptions? It's not Kittle, Waller, Kelce, or even Mark Andrews - it's a tie between Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox with 7. I expect one of them to hit the end zone Monday night, if not both. I really expect Knox to go off and claim the title of best TE in the AFC East.

[Da webster guy]

Mac is Mr Dink and Dunk.   If we put him in a situation where he has to start slinging it on the run or under pocket pressure, he will show that he can't make all the throws necessary to come from behind against a good D.

 

Overall I wasn't super impressed with NE today, but Judon can go Von Miller and wreck your game plan if we can't handle the guy,   Good Interior Dline too.  

 

Their RB's keep getting tons of press but all three of them are average dudes, like our three really.   Nod to us for home field, Josh, better receivers and safeties.   They have a better pass rush, and Bill is a better game coach than McD.

 

Bills 23-Pats 20

[Italian Bills]

6 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:

-Refs: Patriots times a million. 

Please.. don’t get to this point… if we play our A game and cut stupid mistakes, we have great chances to win the game beside the refs. But i feel you… maybe McDermott must consider to be less amenable if something happen. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Josh is by far a more talented player but to me this will come down to him making the right choices.  Punting vs forcing a throw.   Taking a fg instead of holding the ball and taking a bad sack.   
 

the pats will try and frustrate him which is when he is apt to make mistakes.  

[Mr. K]

Biggest game is on Monday. We will see what both teams are made of. Hopefully the Saints game provided enough juice to the offense to be on track. The defense is a wait and see for me. Hopefully with a solid team effort they can play close to what we expect from them in the pass. I would imagine the pats* are going to try and run the ball as much as possible and be diligent with their shots. Maybe you see more corner blitz this week. Should be a good one. Go Bills

[Eastport bills]

16 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Here we are ! After this last Pats win, i want to compare the Bills and the Pats in every aspect and see what you think about.

 

- HC: pats

- QB: Bills

- RB: pats (with Brida maybe even)

- OL: pats

- DL: bills

- WR corps: Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Bills

- KICKER: Bills

- SP TEAM: even ?

 

Maybe i forgot to consider some other aspect, if so feel free to add or correct me. That’s the way i see things in this next matchup. To me, the most important thing McDermott and Daboll have to do, is to find a way to give Josh more time to throw and involve Knox much more, because to me Knox is not at Gronk or Kelce level, but to me is a 

Pats are a net equal on defense after Tre's departure. They are better at corner and at least equal with their front 7. We have great safeties, which are our clear advantage. The offenses are tough to compare. Obviously we are better at QB and wideouts, but they have a clear edge at O-line and RBs with Harris and their TEs with Smith and Henry. That leaves coaching and judging from the way the teams are trending, sadly that's a big one in the Pat's column. I like our STs with Bass and our coverage group. Looking like a nail biter with the turnover battle being crucial. 

[jletha]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Screaming Eagle

Not in the wine sense haha

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

 

They've had 2 punts blocked this season, neither were for TDs and 0 points were scored from them.

[T master]

They had better hope the D comes to play because the Pats have been running the ball good & their D has been doing their job really well if they play like they have been and the Bills play the way they have i hate to say it but i don't see the Bills coming away with a win .

 

They may even get swept this year if they don't step up their game because when they play good teams they seem to forget how to play good football .

[PatsFanNH]

11 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

Had 2 punts blocked early this year, I do believe one went for a TD. 
 

DL — I as a Pats fan am nervous about the run after yesterday. They got gashed and if it wasn’t for TO the game is a lot closer.

 

WR - hands down not even close Buffalo

 

TE — Knox and Henry are a push and Jones is definitely better than your second TE. 

[Big Turk]

18 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Here we are ! After this last Pats win, i want to compare the Bills and the Pats in every aspect and see what you think about.

 

- HC: pats

- QB: Bills

- RB: pats (with Brida maybe even)

- OL: pats

- DL: bills

- WR corps: Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Bills

- KICKER: Bills

- SP TEAM: even ?

 

Maybe i forgot to consider some other aspect, if so feel free to add or correct me. That’s the way i see things in this next matchup. To me, the most important thing McDermott and Daboll have to do, is to find a way to give Josh more time to throw and involve Knox much more, because to me Knox is not at Gronk or Kelce level, but to me is a very good TE. 

 

 

I think with the loss of White Corners and Safeties are at best a push, and maybe even favor the Patriots.

12 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

 

They just have up almost 300 yards rushing to the Titans without Derrick Henry. Come again with their solid run D...

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

Had 2 punts blocked early this year, I do believe one went for a TD. 
 

DL — I as a Pats fan am nervous about the run after yesterday. They got gashed and if it wasn’t for TO the game is a lot closer.

 

WR - hands down not even close Buffalo

 

TE — Knox and Henry are a push and Jones is definitely better than your second TE. 

 

I think you mean Jonnu Smith and not Jones at TE?

 

Always liked him with Tennessee...dude gashed us for like 75 yards on a TE screen once...super athletic and very fast.

 

Luckily for you, we can't run the ball well, and usually don't try very hard once we see it's not working.

 

I'm extremely worried that the Pats secondary will do a good enough job to force Allen to hold the ball and the DLine will get lots of pressure...and I really really HATE  Van Noy with the Pats...just an annoying guy that always seems to make big plays and is around the ball...definitely wasn't used properly in Miami.

 

But...that being said...I like McD's track record against rookie QBs...

Edited November 29, 2021 by Big Turk