Matt Breida transforms our offense.

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Are you Breida's mother by any chance? If not, then this really feels like an unhealthy fixation...

Sick counterpoint. Did you do your homework for your first day back to middle school tomorrow?

Edited November 28, 2021 by FireChans

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sick counterpoint. Did you do your homework for your first day back to middle school tomorrow?

 

You had to edit this post? That's almost as embarrasing as your thread title.

 

Peace out, brother. 

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You had to edit this post? That's almost as embarrasing as your thread title.

 

Peace out, brother. 

And here you are still posting nothing lol

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, Doc said:

 

If he ran the wrong screen route the other night because he didn't know the playbook, it's possible he knew even less of the playbook earlier in the season.  Hence the reason they didn't play him much, earlier.

 

This.  Plus blocking.  Understanding the variations in who the back is supposed to block from the same protection given different defensive looks, not simple

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Counterpoint:

Breida averages 6.5 yards per touch. Moss averages 4.6, Singletary 4.7.

Breida averages a TD every 9 touches. Devin averages a TD every 62 touches, Moss every 18 touches.

 

Please. 

Data including NO game (click to embiggen):

Breida 5.2 ypc, Singletary 4.7 ypc

 

If you want to include passing statistics and look at total yards, then you need to account for the fact that Singletary has 124 touches to Breida's 27 touches.

A large disparity in sample size (almost 5x) is a standard "watch out" for statistical analysis.

 

This is especially true with a game like NFL football where it's well known that as opponents get more film on tendencies, plays get harder to make.

 

Breida has added a nice element to our run game, but let's not go nuts.

[billsfan1959]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please. 

Data including NO game (click to embiggen):

Breida 5.2 ypc, Singletary 4.7 ypc

 

If you want to include passing statistics and look at total yards, then you need to account for the fact that Singletary has 124 touches to Breida's 27 touches.

A large disparity in sample size (almost 5x) is a standard "watch out" for statistical analysis.

 

This is especially true with a game like NFL football where it's well known that as opponents get more film on tendencies, plays get harder to make.

 

Breida has added a nice element to our run game, but let's not go nuts.

 

Correct. The sample size for Breida is small. To compound it, 5 (25%) of his rushes and 50 (50%) of his rushing yardage came against an Indy defense sitting back in a blow out lead.

 

I really do like the added dimension Breida brings to this offense, and I would like to see what he can do with more playing time and the offensive line healthy.

 

It is the anointing based on a few good plays and cherry picked stats I can do without.

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by billsfan1959

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please. 

Data including NO game (click to embiggen):

Breida 5.2 ypc, Singletary 4.7 ypc

 

If you want to include passing statistics and look at total yards, then you need to account for the fact that Singletary has 124 touches to Breida's 27 touches.

A large disparity in sample size (almost 5x) is a standard "watch out" for statistical analysis.

 

This is especially true with a game like NFL football where it's well known that as opponents get more film on tendencies, plays get harder to make.

 

Breida has added a nice element to our run game, but let's not go nuts.

Devin Singletary is currently 146th in the NFL in yards per catch. How is that for sample size?

 

Anyone can see Breida is a way better pass catcher.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Not really.

 

But back to the point about the 23 yard TD play in which you said you didn't see any good blocking downfield. The hole that Breida ran through didn't magically create itself. Boettger did a great job disrupting 3 defenders and  Morse got his man. Ford (while typically lost) actually didn't have anyone to block here but was downfield and was looking to block the DB if Breida had to cut further inside behind Ford. There were five Bills downfield blocking or looking to block someone on this play. As a result, a half hearted arm extension by a DB is as close as Breida ever came to being tackled on this play. He did well on the play; however, to be honest, Singletary or Moss  probably would have gotten through that hole as well.

 

 

The truth about Breida's game on Thursday night is this: He brought some extra speed to the game and I like that in this offense. However, on the plays in which he did well, the blocking at the point of attack and/or downfield was good. When he was average to poor (which was on about half his touches), the blocking was bad. 

 

That is the same story we have seen all year, no matter who is in the backfield. The offensive line has been in shambles all year. The top four linemen and the positions in which they help this team the most are Dawkins at LT, Morse at C, Williams at RG, and Brown at RT. Those four have played together in only 4 of 11 games this year. When they have, the team averaged 135 yards rushing, 321 yards passing, 456 total yards, and 38.5 points per game.

 

Having those four on the field (with preferrably Feliciano or Boettger at LG) is what transforms this offense. 

 

 

 

I mean I don't think it's a coincidence that the first RB screen we've called all year that had a valuable outcome was with Breida catching the pass. It wasn't just the blocking. He set up the blocks perfectly and accelerated through the window when it was there.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean I don't think it's a coincidence that the first RB screen we've called all year that had a valuable outcome was with Breida catching the pass. It wasn't just the blocking. He set up the blocks perfectly and accelerated through the window when it was there.

Agree

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I mean I don't think it's a coincidence that the first RB screen we've called all year that had a valuable outcome was with Breida catching the pass. It wasn't just the blocking. He set up the blocks perfectly and accelerated through the window when it was there.

 

His speed makes defenders have to think twice about their angle of pursuit and that leads to hesitation.  I think he'd be more effective as a pass catcher given the problems the OL has blocking and again, all things being equal, if they're all hampered by the OL WRT run blocking, give me the guy with speed.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean I don't think it's a coincidence that the first RB screen we've called all year that had a valuable outcome was with Breida catching the pass. It wasn't just the blocking. He set up the blocks perfectly and accelerated through the window when it was there.

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/matt-breida-rushes-for-a-15-yard-touchdown-bills-at-jets

 

Come on man! Look at this play! Think about how many 15 yard TD runs that the cinderblock feet duo have had, they easily score here too, despite defensive tackles outpacing them when they run outside.

Edited November 28, 2021 by FireChans

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean I don't think it's a coincidence that the first RB screen we've called all year that had a valuable outcome was with Breida catching the pass. It wasn't just the blocking. He set up the blocks perfectly and accelerated through the window when it was there.

 

Setting aside the fact that it isn't the first RB screen they have called for this year, I am not totally disagreeing with your analysis. My point in that post was a response to another poster who said he didn't see and good downfield blocking. It just wasn't true and Breida did a good job, IMO, However, IMO, I believe Singletary would have had the same results on that play. It is just an opinion and feel free to disagree. I have no issue with that.

 

Overall, I have stated from my very first post in this thread that I like Breida's speed and open field abilities, and I would like to see him on the field. However, I think some people on this board tend to see a couple of decent plays from a player who hasn't been on the field much (particularly at a position where the team has struggled), ignore the plays that aren't so good - or rationalize them away, cherry pick stats, and all of a sudden the player is elevated to a status that doesn't match reality.

 

I like Breida and I am interested in seeing what else he can do with more playing time. But, so far, he has flashed some ability in a few good plays. Nothing more.

[Norcalbillsfan]

On 11/26/2021 at 6:24 AM, Spiderweb said:

Brenda gives our offense an additional weapon, but at 2.9 yards per carry, let's not get carried away. That is still a pedestrian performance.

I dont think he's the savior by any means, and I don't think he improves the offense with his rushing between the tackles. I think its mainly his presence that greatly changes dynamics for defenses. This entire season no LB feared getting burned by moss/Singletary in a dumpoff or screen cuz any LB can take a decent angle and catch moss/Singletary. So really there wasn't that respect factor, LBs could crowd the line, blitz, harass josh etc. Now comes brieda, hes not a stellar ball carrier up the middle, but every LB in the nfl knows they can't catch brieda in open feild. Brieda is extremely dangerous on screens/ dumpoffs cuz you think you have an angle on him and he's already gone.

 

Brieda makes LBs have to think about one more aspect of the bills offense and that in itself is very valuable.

[JoshAllin]

Most teams don't have film or prepare much for Breida so I don't expect this to keep up with this OL. Same thing happend with Moss earlier in the season where  he put up some nice numbers and its just been downhill from there. Hopefully he keeps it up though with teams now focusing on him more

[Hapless Bills Fan]

44 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Devin Singletary is currently 146th in the NFL in yards per catch. How is that for sample size?

 

Anyone can see Breida is a way better pass catcher.

 

The question is not where Singletary is currently in the NFL in yards/reception (and by the way, nice show comparing him to TE and WR)

 

The question is whether it’s reasonable to anoint Breida as transformative to the Bills offense and to compare his statistics to Singletary’s when the sample size is so different, and for Breida, so small.

 

If you want to “eyeball test” him as a better pass catcher than Singletary based upon 7 targets that’s your eyeballs.

[FireChans]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The question is not where Singletary is currently in the NFL in yards/reception (and by the way, nice show comparing him to TE and WR)

 

The question is whether it’s reasonable to anoint Breida as transformative to the Bills offense and to compare his statistics to Singletary’s when the sample size is so different, and for Breida, so small.

 

If you want to “eyeball test” him as a better pass catcher than Singletary based upon 7 targets that’s your eyeballs.

He's 34th among RB's. LOL. And #1 in fumbles!

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by FireChans

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

He's 34th among RB's. LOL. And #1 in fumbles!

 

Moss is actually a better pass catcher than Singletary, just talking about the act of actually catching the ball. Moss has better hands, it comes more easily. Singletary often doesn't catch it cleanly, it doesn't come naturally for him and as a result he's got a few big drops already in his career.

[Orlando Buffalo]

I have three thoughts on why Breida has only been playing much lately. 1) he did not pick up his assignments as well. 2) we have changed our offensive focus lately 3) he is so effective because he is so fresh. I would not be surprised if Moss is ready to go against Bucs and does well having a couple weeks off.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I have three thoughts on why Breida has only been playing much lately. 1) he did not pick up his assignments as well. 2) we have changed our offensive focus lately 3) he is so effective because he is so fresh. I would not be surprised if Moss is ready to go against Bucs and does well having a couple weeks off.

 

Neither Moss nor Singletary have the speed to get to the edge IMO, and both of them struggle behind our run blocking.  Breida is better at seeing a slight gap and shooting through it.  That said, while I actually believe that Breida gives us a valuable additional element to our D and deserves more playing time, if he’s going to contribute he needs to not make many mistakes like on the screen pass/Knox canceled TD or in protection.  

 

And it will get harder as teams get more film on him.

[billsfan_34]

On 11/26/2021 at 9:43 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Devin Singletary is by far our best RB. I don't know why we go away from him. Brieda is the perfect compliment. 

 

 

That is not saying much- we have the worst RB core in the league that must be addressed in the offseason. I do agree, you go with the best back on the roster.