Lil Dirty - Benched (update - He’s back and better than ever)

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It is the opposite of saying always punt from midfield. 

 

The analytics and averages are showing it's a bad decision.  If his average is under 25 and he is usually taking it from 2 yards deep, it's just a bad choice.  And that is before factoring in the fumbles and penalties.

 

I'm sorry but I am with Hapless - this is flawed analysis. If he is averaging less than a yard less than the automatic it is well worth the risk. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I suppose your right.  Can’t imagine any team uses as many roster spots on Special Teams-only players as Bills, so waste not to try to take advantage of that.  

 

More teams than you think. Let me give you some names - Andrew Adams, Cam Gill, Pat O'Connor..... core special teamers on the Superbowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccs last year. Guys who were on the roster for their ability to play special teams. Every team has core special teamers and every single fan base would rather cut those guys to sign backups who might offer 5% more on their side of the ball but will almost never get on the field. And NFL teams will always prioritise backup spots on guys who do get on the field because they are good special teams players. 

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm sorry but I am with Hapless - this is flawed analysis. If he is averaging less than a yard less than the automatic it is well worth the risk. 

So you like the field positions of say 25, 38, 10 over 25, 25, 25.  I don't.  When we're inside the 15 there is a different kind of playcalling and feel to the possesion.

 

And the real figure used should be drive start for the return, not the yardage.  That way useless yardage from the end zone would not be included, and the penalties assessed would be included in the calculation.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

So you like the field positions of say 25, 38, 10 over 25, 25, 25.  I don't.  When we're inside the 15 there is a different kind of playcalling and feel to the possesion.

 

And the real figure used should be drive start for the return, not the yardage.  That way useless yardage from the end zone would not be included, and the penalties assessed would be included in the calculation.

 

Yea, as I said. You wanna play it safe. With a Tyrod Taylor offense I'd be right there with you. With an offense that can move the ball and score I'm less concerned about the odd drive start from the 10. 

[Rochesterfan]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj-m-XZqcD0AhX2QzABHe6GD5AQFnoECAIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fthecommutesports.com%2F2020%2F10%2F27%2Fnfl-starting-field-position%2F&usg=AOvVaw1BOEs8WNFlTbcAOnIuT1x_

 

 

 

There is room for you both to be right.  This study from last year suggests the Bills are one of the best teams at returns of both Kickoffs and Punts and this years data fall right in line as one again they are near the top in both kick returns yards average and punt return yard average.  They suggest the Bills should be returning every kick when given a chance, but that was with Roberts when he was safe.

 

There is also truth in that both Stevenson and McKenzie have shown difficulty with returns and taking the safe start at the 25 on kickoffs would actually be best.

 

The difference is minor, but early in the season the energy from a big kick got the Bills some early momentum and at times later the mistakes have worked to kill momentum- so it is a mixed bag.

 

What I find interesting is Stevenson to me seems very comfortable with Kick-off return duties, but less comfortable with punt returns (although explosive- he seems much less comfortable making the catch).  McKenzie is the opposite- he seems much more comfortable in the punt return role, but seems very uncomfortable fielding kick-offs.  
 

A combination would be best, but you cannot justify the needed position.

 

So at this very moment - I have no issue with the deciding to return a kickoff or not - the average difference is not worthy of the discussion.  The pluses and minuses of touchbacks versus returns has played out in multiple games - some good - some bad.

 

Just let it go - either way - it is what it is and plays out.

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea, as I said. You wanna play it safe. With a Tyrod Taylor offense I'd be right there with you. With an offense that can move the ball and score I'm less concerned about the odd drive start from the 10. 

Wow, I'm polar opposite.  With Tyrod, I would be willing to take the risk of the return.  Roberts/McKenzie are better, and the risk of getting something is then worth it IMO. 

 

With Josh/Daboll, I don't want them constrained by bad field position (see playoff game vs Indy).  

[Rochesterfan]

11 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

So you like the field positions of say 25, 38, 10 over 25, 25, 25.  I don't.  When we're inside the 15 there is a different kind of playcalling and feel to the possesion.

 

And the real figure used should be drive start for the return, not the yardage.  That way useless yardage from the end zone would not be included, and the penalties assessed would be included in the calculation.

 

As you said - there is a different mindset inside the 15, but the same gets said for the odd start outside the 35.  It is like the change once a team gets their first - first down on a drive.

 

Don’t just look at the negative side - with your example there is a positive side also.  Both should be considered.

 

 

[Arkady Renko]

What does this mean?  

[Beast]

43 minutes ago, Arkady Renko said:

What does this mean?  

 

That there is going to be a remade Happy Days, only with black characters, and he's going ghe be The Fonz.

[Scott7975]

On 11/26/2021 at 11:07 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think McDermott sees it that way, especially on a kickoff.  I think he sees it "you have one job - end the play with the football in your hands"

 

 

Where are these reports?

 

My understanding is that a player on IR is not allowed to start practicing with the team until he is "activated for return from IR".  Which happened for Stevenson on this Tuesday, which would kind of preclude "a while". 

 

But there may be fine points to the rule of which I'm unaware.

 

Thanks

 

I think what you are saying is correct if I read you right.  Once a player begins to practice they start the 21 day clock.  He has to be activated in that 21 days or he is gone for the season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Arkady Renko said:

What does this mean?  

 

Yeah, who has Instagram and can clue us? 

@Mango?

 

I can see the post without an Instagram account but can't read the replies

[Scott7975]

On 11/29/2021 at 7:22 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's a big "if"

 

Overall, kickers have a TB% of 58% this year in the NFL.  We have given up 14 FG and 20 TD so 34 kickoffs.  That would imply 19 returns that were TB

 

We have 23 returns.  Someone somewhere probably has stats, but that would suggest that McKenzie has returned something like 8 kicks that could have gone for TBs, and 15 that would likely have gone for less than 25 yds without a return.

 

Be nice if good stats on this were easier to find.

 

 

I think that's a flawed analysis, ESPECIALLY after factoring in the block-in-the-back penalties.  I can't find a source of how many we've actually gotten, but it seems like "too many" to me.

 

There was actually more than 34 kickoffs.  You forgot the first or second half opening kickoffs.  I went through all the game logs and recorded 40 kickoffs plus 2 Stevenson kickoffs against NO.

 

The ball was kicked into the end zone 21 times of those 40 kicks.  The rest were kicked outside the endzone and had to be returned.  Of the 21 kicks into the endzone There were 17 touchbacks and McKenzie brought the ball out 4 times.  All 4 of those times were 2 yards or less deep into the endzone.  

 

Both the NO kicks were touchbacks.

 

I may have missed a couple kickoffs but I think the point is clear.  

Edited December 1, 2021 by Scott7975

[3rdand12]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't about being excited. It's about if the average is almost the same as just taking a touchback then the risk is small for the potential gain. Yes, the mistakes when they come hurt. But it is just a safety first, no risk, approach. It is akin to saying always punt at midfield on 4th down. 

I believe our friend her was responding to my retort about getting excited over a return when you can see the gear shift to next speed occurs. 
for me it is.

 Safety be darned.
Some folks are more risk adverse than others

and thats okay.
get rid of the penalties and NEVER drop the ball. Make the best decision you can make while the ball is in the air and the blocking is taking shape

 Make sure Josh gets the ball next  lol

[Scott7975]

23 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

There was actually more than 34 kickoffs.  You forgot the first or second half opening kickoffs.  I went through all the game logs and recorded 40 kickoffs plus 2 Stevenson kickoffs against NO.

 

The ball was kicked into the end zone 21 times of those 40 kicks.  The rest were kicked outside the endzone and had to be returned.  Of the 21 kicks into the endzone There were 17 touchbacks and McKenzie brought the ball out 4 times.  All 4 of those times were 2 yards or less deep into the endzone.  

 

Both the NO kicks were touchbacks.

 

I may have missed a couple kickoffs but I think the point is clear.  

 

Forgot to add... of the 4 times he brought it out

28 yardline

Returned for TD but a penalty so the drive started at the 18 yardline where Allen proceeded to go all the way to the Titans 1 yardline (we all know what happened)

22 yardline

25 yardline 

 

This mythical starting at the 15 yardline instead of the 25 just doesnt exist.  Yeah, I am telling McK to take the ball out.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Scott7975

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, who has Instagram and can clue us? 

@Mango?

 

I can see the post without an Instagram account but can't read the replies

The replies range from: “he’s just messing around” to “he’s injured” to “it was great having you. Best of luck.”

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

The replies range from: “he’s just messing around” to “he’s injured” to “it was great having you. Best of luck.”

 

So basically no clue what he means

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Forgot to add... of the 4 times he brought it out

28 yardline

Returned for TD but a penalty so the drive started at the 18 yardline where Allen proceeded to go all the way to the Titans 1 yardline (we all know what happened)

22 yardline

25 yardline 

 

This mythical starting at the 15 yardline instead of the 25 just doesnt exist.  Yeah, I am telling McK to take the ball out.

Your second one says we started at the 18, so you're really going to go with "this mythical starting at the 15 doesn't exist"?  Wow.

 

You can tell McKenzie to take it out all you want, I'm leaning towards hoping McDermott plays the kid.  This is a great opportunity to integrate another youngster for the long term growth of the team.

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, Arkady Renko said:

What does this mean?  

Seeing that it’s liked by Yeldon, it probably means it hurts to be sitting behind somebody who’s not better than me 😎

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, who has Instagram and can clue us? 

@Mango?

 

I can see the post without an Instagram account but can't read the replies

I can see it. It’s just a bunch a fan responses asking what happened. Moss, Rousseau, poyer and Gabe Davis “liked” the post 

Edited December 1, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[MiltonWaddams]

I love a nice vague social media post. Attention grabbing, but with a side of “idgaf”.