Carson Palmer concerned?

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I've posted this breakdown several times. It was not a bad decision.

 

 

Allen throws the ball right when Davis should be coming out of his break. Instead the CB wins the rep and takes Davis out of the play and the safety is able to get in front of him. Davis's break at the top of the route is awful by the way. It looks like he's playing on ice.

 

It would have been a difficult completion in a very tight window... but that's where the design of the play takes him and Allen makes those plays all the time. Do you want him to never take the chance? You can't have both.

 

Instead of blaming the QB for trying to pick up a 3rd and 18, blame the offensive system and personnel that require him to convert multiple plays like this every single week for the Bills to have a chance to score TDs. If Daboll didn't want him to try to pick up the 1st he could have just run the ball or called a screen. I think it's crazy that we want Allen to not even try and just concede a punt or a possible long FG.

Happy, I just disagree with you here. The safety on that side was playing tighter than the other one all the way through that play and was just waiting to jump on it. It was not a good decision in my book.

39 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

There were no shorter options that would have gotten them into field goal range.

 

A punt would have been a marginally better outcome.

The outlet receiver at the top of the screen (on AllenLs left) had a pretty easy 7 yard pick up there.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Happy, I just disagree with you here. The safety on that side was playing tighter than the other one all the way through that play and was just waiting to jump on it. It was not a good decision in my book.

The outlet receiver at the top of the screen (on AllenLs left) had a pretty easy 7 yard pick up there.

When Allen hits the top of his drop (I think that’s Moss) is barely at the LOS…I don’t see 7 easy yards there.A checkdown there imo gets 3 yards and then we punt.

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Happy, I just disagree with you here. The safety on that side was playing tighter than the other one all the way through that play and was just waiting to jump on it. It was not a good decision in my book.

 

If Davis had won the rep and separated on his break the safety wouldn't have been in position to intercept the pass. Allen throws the ball before he knows if Davis wins the rep because he has to. Normally a QB throwing a deep in-breaking pass with good anticipation and ball placement is considered high level QB play... if the receiver loses the rep then yeah it looks bad.

 

QBs make decisions based on leverage, not space. Otherwise tight window throws would never happen. It doesnt matter if the safety is "tight," he can't catch a pass that hits a receiver in front of him. Best case scenario there is he breaks up the pass. The video shows clearly that it wasn't the safety's positioning that blew up the play, it was the CB undercutting Davis because his route break wasn't sharp.

 

You're basically saying that Allen should have thrown the flat pass immediately just because there are two high safeties... I am sure that when Daboll called the play he knew that would be the defensive play call. If Allen was supposed to throw the check down right away against that defense then he would have. He's not a renegade.

 

Frankly there are no good options on this play - there rarely are on 3rd and 18 - but he took the one that had the best chance of converting. On 1st and 10 maybe not the best choice but on 3rd and 18... And if you want to take this play away from Allen you also take away most of his highlight reel tight window throws.

Edited November 25, 2021 by HappyDays

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If Davis had won the rep and separated on his break the safety wouldn't have been in position to intercept the pass. Allen throws the ball before he knows if Davis wins the rep because he has to. Normally a QB throwing a deep in-breaking pass with good anticipation and ball placement is considered high level QB play... if the receiver loses the rep then yeah it looks bad.

 

QBs make decisions based on leverage, not space. Otherwise tight window throws would never happen. It doesnt matter if the safety is "tight," he can't catch a pass that hits a receiver in front of him. Best case scenario there is he breaks up the pass. The video shows clearly that it wasn't the safety's positioning that blew up the play, it was the CB undercutting Davis because his route break wasn't sharp.

 

You're basically saying that Allen should have thrown the flat pass immediately just because there are two high safeties... I am sure that when Daboll called the play he knew that would be the defensive play call. If Allen was supposed to throw the check down right away against that defense then he would have. He's not a renegade.

 

Frankly there are no good options on this play - there rarely are on 3rd and 18 - but he took the one that had the best chance of converting. On 1st and 10 maybe not the best choice but on 3rd and 18... And if you want to take this play away from Allen you also take away most of his highlight reel tight window throws.

We can agree to disagree on this one. 

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, Thriftygamer83 said:

Anybody else feeling that this isn't just a small shot in the dark anymore?  USC wants to re-invent itself.  With a buy out offer, contract sheet, and to woo away talent with head coaching pedigree.  Folks can tell me a million times but it's like a Parker novel for me.... until, it happens we cannot rule anything out.

What?  
 

I don’t know what’s worse…the actual loss or all these people coming out of the dark to post incoherent gibberish all over TSW after a loss who don’t say a peep after wins.   
 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I've posted this breakdown several times. It was not a bad decision.

 

 

Allen throws the ball right when Davis should be coming out of his break. Instead the CB wins the rep and takes Davis out of the play and the safety is able to get in front of him. Davis's break at the top of the route is awful by the way. It looks like he's playing on ice.

 

It would have been a difficult completion in a very tight window... but that's where the design of the play takes him and Allen makes those plays all the time. Do you want him to never take the chance? You can't have both.

 

Instead of blaming the QB for trying to pick up a 3rd and 18, blame the offensive system and personnel that require him to convert multiple plays like this every single week for the Bills to have a chance to score TDs. If Daboll didn't want him to try to pick up the 1st he could have just run the ball or called a screen. I think it's crazy that we want Allen to not even try and just concede a punt or a possible long FG.

 

I got to go with some others here and say I disagree with Matt Waldman's take and it WAS a bad decision.  Yes, it isn't a crisp break by Davis and he does lose his battle with the CB, but it's going to be a tight throw into double coverage and our D picks those.  It wouldn't surprise me if the pick Poyer had in practice was a route like that.

 

It's really not promising, but there is a window where most of the defenders believe Allen is going to go deep, and if he threw it to Knox or ?Singletary? at the top, they both have one guy to beat who is giving them plenty of cushion because he thinks he's unlikely to have to defend them.  Knox is sneaky-fast and can run over a guy, and Singletary is shifty and can make a guy miss in the open field.  We may not get the first down, but at worst, we gain 10 yds back and kick a field goal then kick off and defend the return, vs. giving the ball to the Colts just short of mid-field.

 

Situational Awareness.  You don't give up a chance to score points to risk a 3rd and 18 turnover, not at the start of the game when it's 7-0.  Get a FG, make it 7-3.  Live to try another drive.

 

 

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I've posted this breakdown several times. It was not a bad decision.

 

 

Allen throws the ball right when Davis should be coming out of his break. Instead the CB wins the rep and takes Davis out of the play and the safety is able to get in front of him. Davis's break at the top of the route is awful by the way. It looks like he's playing on ice.

 

It would have been a difficult completion in a very tight window... but that's where the design of the play takes him and Allen makes those plays all the time. Do you want him to never take the chance? You can't have both.

 

Instead of blaming the QB for trying to pick up a 3rd and 18, blame the offensive system and personnel that require him to convert multiple plays like this every single week for the Bills to have a chance to score TDs. If Daboll didn't want him to try to pick up the 1st he could have just run the ball or called a screen. I think it's crazy that we want Allen to not even try and just concede a punt or a possible long FG.

Well, I have already heard two former NFL QBs say otherwise.  Both Palmer and Simms talked about how poor of a decision it was.  Seemed very obvious to me too. 

[Big Turk]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The OP is crusading the idea that McDermott has "checked out" and will quit the Bills to take the HC job at USC, complete with wrong information about McDermott having grown up in the USC area vs. reality (where he was actually born and grew up).  He's started 1 or 2 other threads and other posts about it and won't let go.

 

This time he's trying to sneak it in by titling it "Carson Palmer concerned" and linking the video, in the hopes we won't notice, I guess.

 

 

OP is clueless apparently.

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I've posted this breakdown several times. It was not a bad decision.

 

 

Allen throws the ball right when Davis should be coming out of his break. Instead the CB wins the rep and takes Davis out of the play and the safety is able to get in front of him. Davis's break at the top of the route is awful by the way. It looks like he's playing on ice.

 

It would have been a difficult completion in a very tight window... but that's where the design of the play takes him and Allen makes those plays all the time. Do you want him to never take the chance? You can't have both.

 

Instead of blaming the QB for trying to pick up a 3rd and 18, blame the offensive system and personnel that require him to convert multiple plays like this every single week for the Bills to have a chance to score TDs. If Daboll didn't want him to try to pick up the 1st he could have just run the ball or called a screen. I think it's crazy that we want Allen to not even try and just concede a punt or a possible long FG.

 

Not to mention the CB clearly commits pass interference on Davis.

[Niagara Dude]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a point that if we move on too quickly from a draft pick and they flourish elsewhere, then a GM faces justifiable criticism for "the one that got away".

 

Beane's assessment was that Cody Ford had been hampered by injuries and would "get right" in the off season and flourish.  His assessment was wrong, but in fairness, there's guesswork in projecting how an injured player will develop. 

 

I think the evaluation on Singletary and Moss was that they could play if we could run between the tackles, and he added Breida to give us outside speed.  So the misevaluation at RB is linked to the misevaluation at OL, plus the choices to keep Breida inactive and to stubbornly persist in playing so much from the shotgun when we can't run from the shotgun, and predominantly running when we play under center.

Moss is a healthy scratch tonight,  so my boy Breida going to get touches.  Big game up coming i can feel it. 

[Thriftygamer83]

No longer allowed to comment much on this thread.  So, any answers or responses will be reserved for not really caring.

[Nelius]

21 hours ago, TheProcess said:

This OP won’t quit with this. Zero chance McD takes the SC job. 

Yeah this was the person bombarding the game day thread with the same USC stuff. Now this bizarre thread. All the credit in the world if it somehow happens I guess but I think the point has been made.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Nelius

[HurlyBurly51]

On 11/24/2021 at 6:29 PM, Thriftygamer83 said:

Anybody else feeling that this isn't just a small shot in the dark anymore?  USC wants to re-invent itself.  With a buy out offer, contract sheet, and to woo away talent with head coaching pedigree.  Folks can tell me a million times but it's like a Parker novel for me.... until, it happens we cannot rule anything out.

Well, it looks like your theory that you’ve been crusading about has been debunked!🤣😂  Guess you can rule it out now🤪

[BigDingus]

He's right about the "piss-missile" passes though 😂

 

I mean, it's cool Josh can throw 95 mph lasers, but there are times where that's probably not the best approach lol