Greg Cosell, NFL Films painted a not-so-great picture on Bills O

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

As for the running game, how long should one commit to something that clearly isn’t working?

You have to find out how to make it work. 

[John from Riverside]

Converting third downs on the ground and everybody will love bills again

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

A dome doesn't run or stop the run, correct.

 

The return of Lotulelei and Edmunds on the other hand, stand a pretty good chance of stopping the run much better, and the return of Spencer Brown and Feliciano stand a chance of helping us run better.

 

Not to mention not facing any other OLs as good as Indy's, and probably beyond that not facing a team so willing to break their tendencies so well as the Colts did in suddenly going heavy with traps and whams.

 

The Bills aren't who we saw against the Colts. The Bills are who we've seen all season. Some good games and some bad games, and not playing well right now but with certainly a chance to figure things out and start playing better the way the Chiefs appear to have done.

 

And it's nonsense that we've suddenly stopped running and that's the problem, which can thus be blamed on the OC. Nonsense. This year we've run on 39.9% of plays. Last year (and we were pretty good last year) we ran on 40.8%. That difference is statistically insignificant.

 

 

 

 

Mine was to illustrate Beane and McDermott's importance to Allen. Which I think is underestimated.

The running game comparasion is valid. Last year and this year it's relatively ineffective. Clearly, teams do not respect the Bills run game. The lack of run game was and is a major achilles heel for the Bills. Refer to the KC playoff game if need be. 

 

Beane and company made a decision to live and die with Allen. The Bills going back to last year decided to ride Allen's arm and legs. Agree the Oline injuries and lack of production were unforseen. However, the lack of depth is obvious and the inability to run continues to be a negative theme for the Bills.  I feel like the Bills brass and coaches have failed to adequately address the issue.  Hence, the offense is completely on Allen's shoulders. Teams are rearing back their ears and swarming Allen like bees to blooming flowers. 

 

We will see how the Bills play from here on out. Hoping they can make the playoffs and go into them on a winning streak. 

 

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So the bottom line is, you're right that Beane miscalculated. 

To be fair to Beane, last year the OL was "good enough" to pass protect, and good enough to run against most DLs.  Wild cards I don't think Beane could have predicted:

-Feliciano deciding to go on a diet and lose 30 lbs and train for MMA (or whatever it is he's been doing) instead of OL

-Williams regressing badly at RT

-Whatever happened to Dawkins (covid, celebrity, some combination) that threw him off

 

Beane miscalculated that Cody Ford would take a step, but he felt that some combination of Forrest Lamp, Jamil Douglas, and Ike Boettger would step up if he didn't.  That's on Beane - he really did the bare minimum on IOL with his 2 FA signings and bringing Mongo back, and he bet a bit too much on his Ford.  Some of it is a "perfect storm" of stuff he really couldn't have predicted (Williams, Dawkins, skinny Mongo)

 

IMO, Beane (and McDermott) both felt they had end-of-year assessments that the run game could be made functional with the above OL, Singletary and Motor, and the addition of Breida as a speed back IF the Bills changed up their game plan and scheme a bit to be less predictable. 

 

The consensus suggestions I read here from pundits are to run more from shotgun using Breida and outside zone, return to the pin-and-pull blocking that Ford and Morse are more suited for, and put Josh under center where his play-action is more effective and where running a (2,1) set with Gilliam and a TE blocking should be able to consistently get us 3-5 yds. (I feel certain someone will correct me if I've got this wrong)

 

But, somewhere on the way to the game day active roster, Breida became a continual healthy scratch so that Kumerow could start and play ST.  And the committment to making the run game actually work never made it into the Pittsburgh game plan and has hardly shown up since.

 

I guess my point is that yes, Beane should have done more for the IOL - at least, I wanted him to do more for the IOL - but I think the real root of the problem is that Beane gave our offense a chess piece that has not been being used in Breida.  

 

I also believe that Beane's calculation on how much was "enough" to do for the OL and RB position, rested on an action plan for player utilization and play development that has not been followed.  That's 100% hunch on my part, but it's a hunch that McDermott's talk about "I thought we'd be further along by now" after the Jax game somewhat confirms IMO.

What a great post. Such detail and analysis. I throughly enjoyed your input. Great insight. 👍👍👍

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I think Craig hits the nall on the head.  The Bills game plan is very reliant on Josh and when he’s not on the talent on the OL isn’t good enough to life him.  We saw this multiple times this season in losses.  The team needs to figure it out or they’ll miss the playoffs 

Yep.

[Richard Noggin]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He appears pretty regularly on a segment with Chris Brown and Steve Tasker and he pretty much said the same things a couple weeks back.

 

I guess one question is why they're lacking explosive plays in the passing game from last season - did they say anything about that?

 

 

I haven't read through the thread beyond your post, but the answer must be the way defenses can cheat against the pass without getting gouged by the run and short passing game. The Bills have been unable to consistently exploit what defenses are intentionally giving them. A defense CAN take away the deep passing game by design. A good offense has to adjust and force the D out of those looks. The Bills aren't doing that against good teams.

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Possibly. I think Allen would have succeeded in about 30/32 other franchises, personally. I don't know that I'd say the same for McDermott and Beane without him. That's why they had to move up to get him, which is to their credit. But to act like few wanted him is revisionist...for a while he was being talked about going #1 overall.

 

He fell to third QB picked. And the #2 team had a 40 year old QB on his last legs and chose Saquon over Josh. That means before the Bills took him three teams desperate for a great QB passed him by. And that's not counting the Broncos either, who refused to trade back with the Bills and turned down Allen for Chubb when under center they were having a three-way battle between Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Even at the time it was clear there wasn't a single sure thing or even a likely franchise guy among them. Only the Colts, not knowing that Luck was going to retire, had good reason to go after anyone but Allen.

 

And you may certainly be right that Allen would have succeeded in about 30/32 other teams. Or you might be wrong.

 

I think you're wrong. Teams can poison QBs, they can destroy them, they can kill their confidence, they can do a crap job with the OL and have them beaten to death, they can coach them poorly. It happens plenty, I believe. David Carr is the classic example, but I think it's very arguable that the Jets took a guy who might have been somebody in Darnold and neutered him with crappy decisions, crappy coaching and crappy personnel acquisition.

 

It's easy to forget with how excellent Allen is now, but he had to make a ton of progress. The Bills did everything right around him. There's a reason people are using the Bills as a model now when they talk about how to develop, build around and support a new QB. They've done a sensational job of it. Without that excellent job, there's no telling what would have happened. Not that I'm arguing that only the Bills could have done it. There are other good smart teams. But I absolutely believe that 30/32 is a wild exaggeration, just as misdirected as you think I was.

 

Which I would argue, by the way. You said that I said, "few wanted him." I didn't say that. I said, "many didn't." I think that's very legit, myself. Now, if you took it as my saying that many didn't at any cost, well, certainly that would have been wrong. But early? There were indeed many who didn't. I can quickly name five. How many would have drafted Allen in the top 20? Three? Four? Five? Not many more, I would argue.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The running game comparasion is valid. Last year and this year it's relatively ineffective. Clearly, teams do not respect the Bills run game. The lack of run game was and is a major achilles heel for the Bills. Refer to the KC playoff game if need be. 

 

Beane and company made a decision to live and die with Allen. The Bills going back to last year decided to ride Allen's arm and legs. Agree the Oline injuries and lack of production were unforseen. However, the lack of depth is obvious and the inability to run continues to be a negative theme for the Bills.  I feel like the Bills brass and coaches have failed to adequately address the issue.  Hence, the offense is completely on Allen's shoulders. Teams are rearing back their ears and swarming Allen like bees to blooming flowers.

 

 

It's really not valid. What he argued, what I was disagreeing with, was him saying that we're not running and that's the problem.

 

It's not. We're running at virtually the same percentage as we did last year. That percentage of runs can be taken and still have a tremendously successful and efficient offense. As we ourselves proved lat year.

 

And of course we made the decision to live and die with Allen. Every team with an elite QB makes the same decision. Look at KC and Mahomes. KC runs less than we do and they're running about the same rate for the last three games as they did for the whole season. GB about 3% more, the Chargers less. Tampa Bay a lot less, LA about the same.

 

I'd argue for a cash-strapped team with other needs such as pass rusher, we did what we could by bringing in Brown. I'd hoped for a guard in the draft, but again, OL wasn't their only need and in fact, it didn't appear to be a big need last year.

 

And the problem in the KC playoff game last year wasn't a problem running the ball. We had 129 yards in rushing on 18 carries, most of which was Josh, but everyone else went 11 for 41, which certainly isn't great but it's not awful either. 

 

People didn't come out of that game saying, "The problem was our run game." They were howling, correctly about the rush on Allen and the defense not being able to stop the Chiefs and Mahomes being able set up a tea table and toast biscuits while he surveyed the field.

 

Defending DrPJax in any way is pretty bizarre. The guy has already declared this as a wasted year, which is just plain nuts at this point. This team right now could miss the playoffs. Or win the Super Bowl. No way to know yet. If we do have a lousy rest of the year, not being able to run will be a smallish part of it. And if the OL ever gets healthy again, which really could happen, they could easily turn the run game to decent and solid. The OL is most of the problem, IMO, and missing two guys, which forces us to play Ford and Boettger and play Williams out of position is a major part of that.

 

Not that I don't want them to grab a guard somewhere for next year. I do.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Utah John]

13 hours ago, Augie said:

He has clearly mastered the obvious. How many new starters do you think we’ll have on the OL next year? I’d put the over/under at 2.5. 

That's not a tough bet considering all our guys are just backups who are pretending to be starters.

[Pete]

It’s spot on.  It’s the emperors new clothes to many 

[Beast]

It is what it is.This isn’t going to change until, at the earliest, next season.

[Not at the table Karlos]

15 hours ago, Augie said:

He has clearly mastered the obvious. How many new starters do you think we’ll have on the OL next year? I’d put the over/under at 2.5. 

Most likely one of the guard spots and maybe C(there's been rumors that this is Morse's last year here but that may change as he's been our best lineman this year) Depends what we do with Williams. He just signed a deal but I think we can get out of it. But if he stays I can see us just replacing the LG spot. 

[HOUSE]

We are doomed 😬

[mannc]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

He fell to third QB picked. And the #2 team had a 40 year old QB on his last legs and chose Saquon over Josh. That means before the Bills took him three teams desperate for a great QB passed him by. And that's not counting the Broncos either, who refused to trade back with the Bills and turned down Allen for Chubb when under center they were having a three-way battle between Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Even at the time it was clear there wasn't a single sure thing or even a likely franchise guy among them. Only the Colts, not knowing that Luck was going to retire, had good reason to go after anyone but Allen.

 

And you may certainly be right that Allen would have succeeded in about 30/32 other teams. Or you might be wrong.

 

I think you're wrong. Teams can poison QBs, they can destroy them, they can kill their confidence, they can do a crap job with the OL and have them beaten to death, they can coach them poorly. It happens plenty, I believe. David Carr is the classic example, but I think it's very arguable that the Jets took a guy who might have been somebody in Darnold and neutered him with crappy decisions, crappy coaching and crappy personnel acquisition.

 

It's easy to forget with how excellent Allen is now, but he had to make a ton of progress. The Bills did everything right around him. There's a reason people are using the Bills as a model now when they talk about how to develop, build around and support a new QB. They've done a sensational job of it. Without that excellent job, there's no telling what would have happened. Not that I'm arguing that only the Bills could have done it. There are other good smart teams. But I absolutely believe that 30/32 is a wild exaggeration, just as misdirected as you think I was.

 

Which I would argue, by the way. You said that I said, "few wanted him." I didn't say that. I said, "many didn't." I think that's very legit, myself. Now, if you took it as my saying that many didn't at any cost, well, certainly that would have been wrong. But early? There were indeed many who didn't. I can quickly name five. How many would have drafted Allen in the top 20? Three? Four? Five? Not many more, I would argue.

 

 

McBeane deserve a ton of credit for targeting and drafting Josh Allen (it’s the main reason neither is on the hot seat) but I disagree that Allen has been put in a perfect situation, and I think it’s silly to argue that Allen would have failed elsewhere.

 

In his first two years, Allen had probably the worst receiver group in the league to work with and an average offensive line. Since they took Allen at number 7 overall, the Bills have used most of their premium draft picks on defense, and three of the high picks they have used on offense have been busts or JAGs. I hate to think how unstoppable Allen would be if the Browns had drafted him and given him the same offensive weapons and o-line Faker Mayfield has had in Cleveland. Yes, the Bills have done a good job developing Allen, but it’s been far from perfect.  There’s no excuse for him to be working behind such a porous offensive line at this point, and I’d argue that his offensive weapons are at best slightly above average. Neither Beasley nor Diggs ever had anywhere near the production they’ve had since they were paired with JA.  And although Knox is developing nicely, most teams have at least two viable TEs on the roster, and the Bills’ RB room is, as we now know, pathetic.

 

Lastly, the idea that the Jets poisoned Darnold should be firmly laid to rest now that he’s flamed out in Carolina, after less than half a season. You could make a better case that Darnold poisoned the Jets; certainly trading three second round picks to move up to select Darnold—when Allen would have been sitting there at 6—was a Chernobyl-level catastrophe for that franchise.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by mannc

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's really not valid. What he argued, what I was disagreeing with, was him saying that we're not running and that's the problem.

 

It's not. We're running at virtually the same percentage as we did last year. That percentage of runs can be taken and still have a tremendously successful and efficient offense. As we ourselves proved lat year.

 

And of course we made the decision to live and die with Allen. Every team with an elite QB makes the same decision. Look at KC and Mahomes. KC runs less than we do and they're running about the same rate for the last three games as they did for the whole season. GB about 3% more, the Chargers less. Tampa Bay a lot less, LA about the same.

 

I'd argue for a cash-strapped team with other needs such as pass rusher, we did what we could by bringing in Brown. I'd hoped for a guard in the draft, but again, OL wasn't their only need and in fact, it didn't appear to be a big need last year.

 

And the problem in the KC playoff game last year wasn't a problem running the ball. We had 129 yards in rushing on 18 carries, most of which was Josh, but everyone else went 11 for 41, which certainly isn't great but it's not awful either. 

 

People didn't come out of that game saying, "The problem was our run game." They were howling, correctly about the rush on Allen and the defense not being able to stop the Chiefs and Mahomes being able set up a tea table and toast biscuits while he surveyed the field.

 

Defending DrPJax in any way is pretty bizarre. The guy has already declared this as a wasted year, which is just plain nuts at this point. This team right now could miss the playoffs. Or win the Super Bowl. No way to know yet. If we do have a lousy rest of the year, not being able to run will be a smallish part of it. And if the OL ever gets healthy again, which really could happen, they could easily turn the run game to decent and solid. The OL is most of the problem, IMO, and missing two guys, which forces us to play Ford and Boettger and play Williams out of position is a major part of that.

 

Not that I don't want them to grab a guard somewhere for next year. I do.

 

 

Solid post as always Thurman. Respectfully, I think you are missing a major point. Teams flat out don't respect the Bills running game. There is no fear or no threat. Teams just tee off at the line of scrimmage. That clearly contributes to Allen running for his life on a consistent basis even with a healthy Oline. Thus, too much is on Allen's shoulders. It was a common theme throughout last years playoffs. I think it's fair to say the Bills running game vs playoff teams is a huge problem. The ending of the Tennessee game is a good illustration of the Bills run game issues. 

 

I believe a more successful run game and run threat would make Allen even better. I think the Bills run statistics you have pointed out are only part of the story. On paper, it sounds as If the Bills run game is serviceable. I see it differently. Last year and this year I see the Bills run game as problematic and non threatening. Frankly, the Bills offense hasn't fully clicked since the Colts playoff game last year. The opposition defensive blueprint has been mass produced and Daboll and company have yet to consistency figure out how to beat it. The Bills offense has vastly disappointed vs solid teams. I'm afraid to see what Belicheat and the Patriots defense are going to the Bills offense. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by newcam2012

[Jerome007]

14 hours ago, Success said:

I think Beane is a genius, and among the best GM's in the NFL.

 

But he miscalculated this offseason, and it was a big miss.  I think he saw the O-line and RB situation as "good enough."  No doubt that he didn't think those units were world beaters, but that they'd be able to do the job of keeping the offense at least minimally balanced and protect Allen.

 

If we don't win a SB this season, those 2 units are the reason why (I know this isn't a newsflash). I get that we had to address things like pass rush as well, and that on paper, the O-line didn't look as bad as they've been playing - but the run game is a tough one.  Looking around the league, other teams were able to upgrade fairly easily.  The Bills just didn't make much of an effort.

ALL teams have weak spots. ALL. Who are the undefeated teams in  the NFL?... Yeah, none.

 

Salary cap is there for a reason. "I think he saw the O-line and RB situation as "good enough." " For sure. Not that he liked it, but he made that gamble with all the other pieces he had to take care... and with whom were AVAILABLE. Too many fans think there is this mystical magical shelve with great players you just pick from. Most great players are locked and unavailable! Salary cap or not, 32 teams want great players.

 

So I would agree he made some gambles, but he had to make tough choices. It comes with his job. To say he didn't make much of an effort is quite the stretch! And, BTW guys, this season is not over yet. If they win it all like last year to close out the year, Beane will be a genius again. If they don't make the playoffs... PITCHFORK

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

He fell to third QB picked. And the #2 team had a 40 year old QB on his last legs and chose Saquon over Josh. That means before the Bills took him three teams desperate for a great QB passed him by. And that's not counting the Broncos either, who refused to trade back with the Bills and turned down Allen for Chubb when under center they were having a three-way battle between Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Even at the time it was clear there wasn't a single sure thing or even a likely franchise guy among them. Only the Colts, not knowing that Luck was going to retire, had good reason to go after anyone but Allen.

 

It's easy to forget with how excellent Allen is now, but he had to make a ton of progress. The Bills did everything right around him.

 

 

On your first point how has that worked out for the Browns, Jets, Giants and Broncos?  Can you imagine the nightmare for the AFC if Allen was the Browns QB with that running game?

 

IMO your second point perpetuates a myth abut how well the Bills handled Allen as a rookie. Not giving him many first team snaps or game experience in the preseason, thinking that Petermann could carry the team until Allen was ready, and tearing the offense down for a rebuild were all bad things for a project QB inserted into the starting lineup in week 2.  It wasn't until AFTER Allen was hurt that the Bills organization began to do anything right with him.  They got rid of two useless WR's and added a couple of veteran QB's to mentor Allen.    That Allen succeeded was IN SPITE of what the Bills did his rookie year.

 

And for the record, Baker Mayfield had more offensive talent around him than Allen did his rookie year.  The same goes for Sam Darnold.

 

 

 

 

 

[Einstein]

10 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

You have to find out how to make it work. 

 

“I’m going to keep trying to force this square block into this round hole. Just gotta find a way to make it work!”

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

You have to find out how to make it work. 

 

It pains me to agree with you, but you're right.

 

14 minutes ago, Einstein said:

“I’m going to keep trying to force this square block into this round hole. Just gotta find a way to make it work!”

 

I'm not Einstein, but even I can tell that's a fallacious argument. 

 

You don't try to force a square block into a round hole, such as trying to run outside zone from shotgun with Motor and Moss when they lack the speed to get to the edge, or predominantly running when Josh is under center so teams key off it).  You look for square pegs for your square holes, such as activating and utilizing Breida who does have the speed to get there.

 

And you look for  round holes for your round pegs, such as executing pass plays using play-action and passing from under center so the defense can't key on the run, then running between the tackles using a run-blocking scheme our OL was able to execute in 2019 such as pin and pull blocking with a HB as a lead blocker.

 

When you have people like myself who are just trying to learn the details about different run blocking schemes and we can see that, our offensive coaching staff really should be able to see that.

 

And even if you dismiss all the above as baloney, smarter football minds than mine have made the case as to why some successful teams keep running *even when it isn't working*: they need to force defenses to keep defending the run.  What the Bills are facing is "you can't and won't run and we know you can't or won't run, so we don't need to bother trying to defend it and can key off on the pass instead".

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Utah John said:

That's not a tough bet considering all our guys are just backups who are pretending to be starters.

 

Dawkins didn't get an extension because he's a backup pretending to be a starter.  Williams didn't get a new contract because he can't play.   Morse is an excellent run blocker in a pin and pull scheme.

 

Why Dawkins and Wiliams aren't playing up to their level of last season is a different question, but they're not "just backups pretending to be starters"

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

It's really not valid. What he argued, what I was disagreeing with, was him saying that we're not running and that's the problem.

 

It's not. We're running at virtually the same percentage as we did last year. That percentage of runs can be taken and still have a tremendously successful and efficient offense. As we ourselves proved lat year.

 

With respect, I think you're falling prey to "on average, the Duck is Dead" argument.   Last year we had several games where we ran more than we passed - NE, Chargers, Denver - and that skews the average.

 

As for last year, "That was Then, This is Now".  The Ravens O looked unstoppable with Lamar Jackson in 2019.

 

What happened?  A couple teams schemed successfully to slow them down or stop them.  In the off-season, other teams sliced and diced their tendencies and dissected what those teams did that worked, and implemented it in their own defensive game plans. 

 

Whenever a team has a known gap in their offense, it helps the opposing defense because they don't have to defend it and can key off on other aspects.  That's what's happening to the Bills. 

 

It's not the overall number of rush attempts, it's also the success (or lack thereof) when we try.  No one is afraid that the Bills might hand the ball off and take it to the house on 3rd and 18 or even 3rd and 8.  They know we're going to pass, so they blanket the field and overload one or another side of the OL while only rushing 4.  They'd be a sitting duck for a run play to the empty side, but they're not worried.

 

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I'd argue for a cash-strapped team with other needs such as pass rusher, we did what we could by bringing in Brown. I'd hoped for a guard in the draft, but again, OL wasn't their only need and in fact, it didn't appear to be a big need last year.

 

I predict if we don't get to the playoffs, or don't get anywhere in the playoffs, we're going to hear an end-of-season presser where Beane acknowledges that we were cash-strapped, but he could have and should have done more on OL.

 

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

And the problem in the KC playoff game last year wasn't a problem running the ball. We had 129 yards in rushing on 18 carries, most of which was Josh, but everyone else went 11 for 41, which certainly isn't great but it's not awful either. 

 

People didn't come out of that game saying, "The problem was our run game." They were howling, correctly about the rush on Allen and the defense not being able to stop the Chiefs and Mahomes being able set up a tea table and toast biscuits while he surveyed the field.

 

I think you're missing the point.  One reason the Chiefs were able to key off on our passing game was because they had no reason to fear or respect the run.  And yes, people did come out of the playoffs last year pointing out opposing defenses just don't respect our run game and it's a problem.  Our coaches in end of season pressers said it's a problem.

 

What appears to have been incorrect was Beane's idea that in bringing in Breida and two FA IOLmen who had shown some ability when they played, plus a commitment to improving the run on the part of our offensive staff, he had done enough.

[The Jokeman]

11 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Converting third downs on the ground and everybody will love bills again

Not taking penalties to turn 3rd and 4 to 3rd and 19 important too.