Todays Athletic article - Reality Check on Bills

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

The article mentioned in the OP is very illuminating and surprising, actually. I highly recommend reading it if you have access to The Athletic. They're running a $1 per month special right now. Anyway...

The findings of Kapada sort of turn some of the popular narratives on their head.

It's NOT necessarily that the Bills are bad against the much ballyhooed two-high look. Allen is actually one of the more successful QBs in the league against that look this seaosn.

It's NOT necessarily that the offensive line is completely to blame (they're average to below average, but are performing at about the same level in terms of pass blocking as last year). 

It's NOT that teams have taken away the deep ball -- to the contrary, it's one of the few things saving the offense.

What IS it, then? As the OP alluded to: Penalties, interceptions at really inopportune times, and terrible success rate converting 4th downs. The Bills, after all, are arguably two converted 4th downs away from being two games better in the standings.

But the conclusion that is most concerning is that Allen is simply throwing the ball less accurately this year. He's still attempting the same types of throws and still attempting tight window throws. His completion percentage above expected has dropped from 2nd to 16th. That's huge! Whether you blame Allen pressing due to penalties and bad o-line play, defenses adjusting, you wearing the wrong t-shirt on gameday, whatever....the fact is that Allen seems to be generally throwing the ball less accurately this year and turning the ball over more, and it's hurting the team.

Anyway, great read. Give it the time if you can.

I do feel like Allen has just been off target more often than he was a year ago, but one flaw in the completion % above expected metric is that you don't really know if it's the QB or the WR. For example, ESPN was running with a graphic showing the comp % above expected in the preseason for the rookie QBs and how Trey Lance was at like -20% or something absurdly low like that (obviously dealing with small sample sizes in the preseason, but I digress). But the biggest factor in that was that his WRs were dropping around 20% of his passes.

 

I can't verify SportRadar's numbers as I believe that's some sort of premium subscription, but those "on-target percentages" that PFF and apparently SportRadar produce are probably better gauges of a QB's accuracy. I'm not sure what limitations there are with SportRadar but I couldn't help but notice that the author chose to cite their number specifically for passes to Diggs while citing a lower quality number for the overall passing; I wonder if SportRadar just doesn't have overall numbers or if the overall numbers wouldn't match the author's argument.

 

At any rate, it was a nice breakdown in that article and certainly gives you a few things to keep an eye on moving forwards.

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

One other thing the article didn't mention but from what I recall has also been a difference is injuries.   Last two seasons we stayed pretty injury free.  This year while only one season ending (Zimmer) have had a few more small ones and occurred at the positions the team can least afford.

We've pretty much been the least injured team in the league, and by some metrics, are literally the least injured.

[RunTheBall]

The eye test tells me Allen is a bit less accurate than last year. I think the reasons are two-fold 1) He doesn’t trust his offensive line 2) He’s been forcing things because like Mahomes earlier in the season, he feels like he needs to carry the team on his shoulders. Daboll needs to scheme him out of this. 1) More protection packages 2) More easy throws early in the game, Allen needs to get in rhythm 3) Find any semblance of a running game using a combo of RBs, Allen, McKenzie, reverses etc. Allen is a gamer and you can see him hanging onto the ball too long or taking bad sacks because he’s pushing to make something happen. I love the fire but it’s up to the coaches to put him in a better position to succeed when he’s playing erratic.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

We've pretty much been the least injured team in the league, and by some metrics, are literally the least injured.

 

Overall agree, but the injuries to Star and the combo of Mongo/Brown have really hurt bad.  I you asked me to rank which players could the Bills least afford to miss time, those would be at the top of my list as can't live without.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

26 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Overall agree, but the injuries to Star and the combo of Mongo/Brown have really hurt bad.  I you asked me to rank which players could the Bills least afford to miss time, those would be at the top of my list as can't live without.

We seemed to do fine without Star and Brown last season … and let’s not make this mongo guy out to be some all pro who is severely missed either. 

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The article discusses a number of points many posters here are singling out as the issues and goes through a number of advanced stats and compares this season to last and most areas the numbers are similar; better point differential, better expected points added; deep ball is much better than last year, doing better against two deep than last year; top 10 in pass blocking win rate.  Did comment on run game, while very bad, not really that much different than last season.  Talks a little about the defense, but mainly article is about the offense.

 

 

Where the differences are statistically:

 

Interception rate and specifically what he calls untimely interceptions, Allen is 29th out of 37. Basically said if for the rest of the season Allen just were to throw league average of Int's they'd be much better

 

4th down conversion 3 for 10 this year, last year 8 for 10

 

Allen's accuracy, down from 2nd in league to 16th and way down on accuracy to Diggs.

 

Penalties, ranked 27th there and believe lead the league in number called against.

 

And one other point he mentions is close games:

 

Last year, the Bills were 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This year, they’re 0-3. If that 0-3 were 1-2, we’d be looking at a 7-3 team. If it were 2-1, the Bills are probably being touted as a better version of last year’s squad and Super Bowl favorites.

 

https://theathletic.com/2971174/2021/11/23/panic-time-for-the-bills-nope-heres-why-you-probably-should-still-believe-week-11-nfl-reality-check/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

 

I cant read the article but Im not sure I buy all that it is saying.  Interception rate sounds basically like worst in the league but he only really had multiple ints or ints that were a problem in the Colts and Jaguars games.  He threw one against the Titans but I don't think that was why they lost that game.  Also  Allens accuracy down.  Before the Colts game pro football focus on accuracy stat had Josh at one of the best or the best I forgot.  It was at least top 3 with over 70% on target.

 

I just looked.  He does rank 16th in on target % now but a week or two ago he was in the top 3.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, dorquemada said:

To the OP's point though, the Bills did get some bounces last year, and we're not getting them this year.  Add to that the one dimensional O, and it's a recipe for losing close games.  If there was only some solution!

 

This is true.  In the games we lost none of the calls really went our way and the balls didn't bounce our way either.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

36 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I cant read the article but Im not sure I buy all that it is saying.  Interception rate sounds basically like worst in the league but he only really had multiple ints or ints that were a problem in the Colts and Jaguars games.  He threw one against the Titans but I don't think that was why they lost that game.  Also  Allens accuracy down.  Before the Colts game pro football focus on accuracy stat had Josh at one of the best or the best I forgot.  It was at least top 3 with over 70% on target.

 

I just looked.  He does rank 16th in on target % now but a week or two ago he was in the top 3.

 

Pretty much everything in the article was based off stats and you know what they say; Figures don't lie, but.....  

 

It wasn't so much the number of Ints, more a case of when they happen.  He gave an example, not that this applied to Allen but 4th and 20, QB throws a 50 yard pass that's intercepted.  He referred to that as "Punt by Arm"  Those don't hurt very much, but according to the numbers Allens often hurt.

 

Wow is amazing went from 3rd to 16th in accuracy, but not that surprising as many of his passes this Sunday were all off.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

42 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

We seemed to do fine without Star and Brown last season … and let’s not make this mongo guy out to be some all pro who is severely missed either. 

 

Don't think we did fine without Star last year, run defense was a big issue.  Agree on Oline same 7 guys last year back this year and big drop off, why, no idea.  Agree on Mongo, my point though is we're OK with one lineman out, first man in not much of any drop off, but once two were out, really hurt in Jax game.  Admittedly Ford played pretty well this past week less the one penalty, even there another thread stated penalty could have been called on Williams too as both jumped.

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Interception rate and specifically what he calls untimely interceptions, Allen is 29th out of 37. Basically said if for the rest of the season Allen just were to throw league average of Int's they'd be much better

 

4th down conversion 3 for 10 this year, last year 8 for 10

 

Allen's accuracy, down from 2nd in league to 16th and way down on accuracy to Diggs.

 

Penalties, ranked 27th there and believe lead the league in number called against.

 

 

First off what the hell are "untimely interceptions"?  Allen hasn't thrown a red zone INT this season and I consider those to be "untimey". How about throwing a pick six?  Again, he hasn't thrown one of those and they are pretty "untimey" to.

 

He didn't throw an INT against Pittsburgh and his one INT against TN was a ball that bounced up in the air.  The only game where Allen threw "untimely"                    INT's that impacted the game outcome was Jacksonville. 

 

And do they talk about how the O-line is playing this year versus last year? Did they talk about whether all those penalties called on the Bill's Offense were "untimey" or not?  IMO the loss at Jacksonville can be better explained by the O-lines terrible play and numerous untimely penalties. And you can't get more "untimely" then those back to back penalties on the O-line that screwed up our first drive on Sunday.

 

I just don't buy these statistical analytics assessments. It seems to me they are performed by statistics amateurs completely outside of any context.

 

                   

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

20 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

First off what the hell are "untimely interceptions"?  Allen hasn't thrown a red zone INT this season and I consider those to be "untimey". How about throwing a pick six?  Again, he hasn't thrown one of those and they are pretty "untimey" to.

 

He didn't throw an INT against Pittsburgh and his one INT against TN was a ball that bounced up in the air.  The only game where Allen threw "untimely"                    INT's that impacted the game outcome was Jacksonville. 

 

And do they talk about how the O-line is playing this year versus last year? Did they talk about whether all those penalties called on the Bill's Offense were "untimey" or not?  IMO the loss at Jacksonville can be better explained by the O-lines terrible play and numerous untimely penalties. And you can't get more "untimely" then those back to back penalties on the O-line that screwed up our first drive on Sunday.

 

I just don't buy these statistical analytics assessments. It seems to me they are performed by statistics amateurs completely outside of any context.

 

                   

 

 

 

Yes I'm sure your eyes are much better than any stats.  You know what you see!  Granted one exceptional good or bad game can change things, but less likely to have a huge impact after playing 11 games.

 

As far as line play goes here's more specifics:

 

But overall, pass protection has not been a major problem. The Bills are allowing pressure at a lower rate (33.3 percent) than they did last year (36.5 percent). They are top-10 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric, which measures how often protection holds up for at least 2.5 seconds. Allen is taking sacks at a lower rate (3.8 percent) than he did last year (4.3 percent). And his EPA on sacks is better this year than it was last year.

 

I'd say that covers it pretty good compared to last year.  

 

So you're correct what do these stat nerds know compared to a fanatic posting on a message board for a hobby like yourself!  I'm sure it's hard for you to find time to post with you're job as a professional football coach.

 

And yes the article did state as did I that penalties were an issue

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yes I'm sure your eyes are much better than any stats.  You know what you see!  Granted one exceptional good or bad game can change things, but less likely to have a huge impact after playing 11 games.

 

As far as line play goes here's more specifics:

 

But overall, pass protection has not been a major problem. The Bills are allowing pressure at a lower rate (33.3 percent) than they did last year (36.5 percent). They are top-10 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric, which measures how often protection holds up for at least 2.5 seconds. Allen is taking sacks at a lower rate (3.8 percent) than he did last year (4.3 percent). And his EPA on sacks is better this year than it was last year.

 

I'd say that covers it pretty good compared to last year.  

 

So you're correct what do these stat nerds know compared to a fanatic posting on a message board for a hobby like yourself!  I'm sure it's hard for you to find time to post with you're job as a professional football coach.

 

And yes the article did state as did I that penalties were an issue

 

I semi disagree.  The line has been a problem but I didnt think they were much of the problem against the Colts.  To my surprise I thought they played fairly well that game.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

I semi disagree.  The line has been a problem but I didnt think they were much of the problem against the Colts.  To my surprise I thought they played fairly well that game.

 

The line was a big issue in Jax game, agree and also agree they played well this week.  But article was looking at stats all season, wasn't as bad as many here think and point was really isn't the reason the team is playing the way they are.  Biggest issues were accuracy, penalties and losing all the close games.

[Scott7975]

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The line was a big issue in Jax game, agree and also agree they played well this week.  But article was looking at stats all season, wasn't as bad as many here think and point was really isn't the reason the team is playing the way they are.  Biggest issues were accuracy, penalties and losing all the close games.

 

There definitely were some games the line played really well.

[VaMilBill]

What I’d like to do is remove the blowouts then look at our stats. Imagine we’d be close to bottom on the league in a lot of categories. 
 

I do understand that doesn’t take in the entire picture, but I think it’d be worth it

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, VaMilBill said:

What I’d like to do is remove the blowouts then look at our stats. Imagine we’d be close to bottom on the league in a lot of categories. 
 

I do understand that doesn’t take in the entire picture, but I think it’d be worth it

 

I mean you are then looking at mostly our losses.  Almost all our wins were blowouts. 3 of the 4 losses were one score games.  You might find bad offense on the Jags and Pitts.  You might find bad defense on Colts and Tenn.  I think it would be just a waste of time really.

[CincyBillsFan]

23 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yes I'm sure your eyes are much better than any stats.  You know what you see!  Granted one exceptional good or bad game can change things, but less likely to have a huge impact after playing 11 games.

 

As far as line play goes here's more specifics:

 

But overall, pass protection has not been a major problem. The Bills are allowing pressure at a lower rate (33.3 percent) than they did last year (36.5 percent). They are top-10 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric, which measures how often protection holds up for at least 2.5 seconds. Allen is taking sacks at a lower rate (3.8 percent) than he did last year (4.3 percent). And his EPA on sacks is better this year than it was last year.

 

I'd say that covers it pretty good compared to last year.  

 

So you're correct what do these stat nerds know compared to a fanatic posting on a message board for a hobby like yourself!  I'm sure it's hard for you to find time to post with you're job as a professional football coach.

 

And yes the article did state as did I that penalties were an issue

I don't know about you but ESPN's methodology leaves much to be desired on their QB rating system so why should I trust their pass block rating system?

 

And yes when it comes down to a highly subjective metric like "untimely INT's" I trust what I saw in each game more then what these stat nerds put out.  Because when Allen throws an untimely INT I get royally pissed off so you can bet I'm watching very closely for this type of thing.

 

As for the pass blocking, again I see Allen avoiding the rush and extending plays in ways most QB's do not.  So I'm not sure I can trust their metrics.

 

And for the record I spent 35 years doing R&D in Corporate America and I know my way around statistics.  And IMO what these guys do in trying to force fit football to analytics is a poor use of statistics. It's one thing to use analytics to tell a coach when to go for 2 or when to go for it on 4th down it's quite another to use it to assess O-line and QB performance.

 

When variability is enormous and as uncontrolled as it is on every play in a football game statistical analysis can be difficult and the results misleading. 

 

But hey maybe my eyes are deceiving me and the O-line is playing better this year then last year.  But I don't think so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

49 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yes I'm sure your eyes are much better than any stats.  You know what you see!  Granted one exceptional good or bad game can change things, but less likely to have a huge impact after playing 11 games.

 

As far as line play goes here's more specifics:

 

But overall, pass protection has not been a major problem. The Bills are allowing pressure at a lower rate (33.3 percent) than they did last year (36.5 percent). They are top-10 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric, which measures how often protection holds up for at least 2.5 seconds. Allen is taking sacks at a lower rate (3.8 percent) than he did last year (4.3 percent). And his EPA on sacks is better this year than it was last year.

 

I'd say that covers it pretty good compared to last year.  

 

So you're correct what do these stat nerds know compared to a fanatic posting on a message board for a hobby like yourself!  I'm sure it's hard for you to find time to post with you're job as a professional football coach.

 

And yes the article did state as did I that penalties were an issue

 

what is “allowing pressure” and “sack” rate directly correlate to OL play.  Could it be Allen getting rid of the ball faster?   How is the run blocking?    

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, dorquemada said:

 

if the queen had balls she'd be the king

 

if she had 2....

[DCOrange]

5 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

First off what the hell are "untimely interceptions"?  Allen hasn't thrown a red zone INT this season and I consider those to be "untimey". How about throwing a pick six?  Again, he hasn't thrown one of those and they are pretty "untimey" to.

 

He didn't throw an INT against Pittsburgh and his one INT against TN was a ball that bounced up in the air.  The only game where Allen threw "untimely"                    INT's that impacted the game outcome was Jacksonville. 

 

And do they talk about how the O-line is playing this year versus last year? Did they talk about whether all those penalties called on the Bill's Offense were "untimey" or not?  IMO the loss at Jacksonville can be better explained by the O-lines terrible play and numerous untimely penalties. And you can't get more "untimely" then those back to back penalties on the O-line that screwed up our first drive on Sunday.

 

I just don't buy these statistical analytics assessments. It seems to me they are performed by statistics amateurs completely outside of any context.

 

                   

 

 

It’s specifically the expected points added (and subtracted) via INTs. So throwing an INT when you’re about to score is bad, but throwing an INT that puts the other team in position to score is also bad. In the week 2 blowout against Miami, he got intercepted at our own 25 yard line, instantly putting Miami in scoring position. The INT against Houston gave them the ball at our 11 or 12 yard line. Same deal with the one against Tennessee. His first pick against Jacksonville took at least a field goal if not TD off the board and the 2nd put Jacksonville in field goal range. The INT against the Jets put them in field goal range (though not a gimme at that distance). I don’t think the stats were updated through the Colts game, but if they were, one of his INTs was returned into FG range. 
 

Long story short, the only “meaningless” INT he’s had this season in terms of expected points added was his first INT against Indy. All of the others have either taken points off the board for us or almost surely handed points to the other team. 

[CincyBillsFan]

9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

It’s specifically the expected points added (and subtracted) via INTs. So throwing an INT when you’re about to score is bad, but throwing an INT that puts the other team in position to score is also bad. In the week 2 blowout against Miami, he got intercepted at our own 25 yard line, instantly putting Miami in scoring position. The INT against Houston gave them the ball at our 11 or 12 yard line. Same deal with the one against Tennessee. His first pick against Jacksonville took at least a field goal if not TD off the board and the 2nd put Jacksonville in field goal range. The INT against the Jets put them in field goal range (though not a gimme at that distance). I don’t think the stats were updated through the Colts game, but if they were, one of his INTs was returned into FG range. 
 

Long story short, the only “meaningless” INT he’s had this season in terms of expected points added was his first INT against Indy. All of the others have either taken points off the board for us or almost surely handed points to the other team. 

According to the article Allen is one of the worst in the NFL at this.  Yet by your description:

 

*  The Miami game INT did not lead to any points.  Sure it put them in scoring position but does outcome play a role here?  And how bad is a pick 6 viewed in this model? They lead directly to 7 points and I've seen a lot of those this season but none from Allen.

 

*  The Houston INT also did not lead to points

 

*  The TN INT had the worst outcome with the Titans scoring a TD off it. BTW, this was the only Allen INT through the first 9 games that led directly to a TD. 

 

*  The INT's against Jacksonville were the next worst as they likley took 3 points off the board and gave the Jaguars 3 points.

 

*  The INT against the Jets was not relevant as the score was 38 -3 at the time.  Allen clearly got greedy trying to feed Diggs.

 

You know what this looks like to me? Normal QB play in the NFL with all it's ups and downs.  And if the above put Allen near the bottom of the pack with this stat then it's a meaningless stat because Allen's "incidents" don't look like much considering they cover NINE games.

 

Given the enormous amount of uncontrolled variation on every single NFL play the attempt to mathematically quantify performance is doomed.  It's a foolish exercise and IMO results in deeply misleading takes on what happened in a game.