Todays Athletic article - Reality Check on Bills

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

The article discusses a number of points many posters here are singling out as the issues and goes through a number of advanced stats and compares this season to last and most areas the numbers are similar; better point differential, better expected points added; deep ball is much better than last year, doing better against two deep than last year; top 10 in pass blocking win rate.  Did comment on run game, while very bad, not really that much different than last season.  Talks a little about the defense, but mainly article is about the offense.

 

 

Where the differences are statistically:

 

Interception rate and specifically what he calls untimely interceptions, Allen is 29th out of 37. Basically said if for the rest of the season Allen just were to throw league average of Int's they'd be much better

 

4th down conversion 3 for 10 this year, last year 8 for 10

 

Allen's accuracy, down from 2nd in league to 16th and way down on accuracy to Diggs.

 

Penalties, ranked 27th there and believe lead the league in number called against.

 

And one other point he mentions is close games:

 

Last year, the Bills were 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This year, they’re 0-3. If that 0-3 were 1-2, we’d be looking at a 7-3 team. If it were 2-1, the Bills are probably being touted as a better version of last year’s squad and Super Bowl favorites.

 

https://theathletic.com/2971174/2021/11/23/panic-time-for-the-bills-nope-heres-why-you-probably-should-still-believe-week-11-nfl-reality-check/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

[dorquemada]

 

if the queen had balls she'd be the king

[Bills fan since 87]

9 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The article discusses a number of points many posters here are singling out as the issues and goes through a number of advanced stats and compares this season to last and most areas the numbers are similar; better point differential, better expected points added; deep ball is much better than last year, doing better against two deep than last year; top 10 in pass blocking win rate.  Did comment on run game, while very bad, not really that much different than last season.  Talks a little about the defense, but mainly article is about the offense.

 

 

Where the differences are statistically:

 

Interception rate and specifically what he calls untimely interceptions, Allen is 29th out of 37. Basically said if for the rest of the season Allen just were to throw league average of Int's they'd be much better

 

4th down conversion 3 for 10 this year, last year 8 for 10

 

Allen's accuracy, down from 2nd in league to 16th and way down on accuracy to Diggs.

 

Penalties, ranked 27th there and believe lead the league in number called against.

 

And one other point he mentions is close games:

 

Last year, the Bills were 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This year, they’re 0-3. If that 0-3 were 1-2, we’d be looking at a 7-3 team. If it were 2-1, the Bills are probably being touted as a better version of last year’s squad and Super Bowl favorites.

 

https://theathletic.com/2971174/2021/11/23/panic-time-for-the-bills-nope-heres-why-you-probably-should-still-believe-week-11-nfl-reality-check/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

 

Depressing numbers.

[Fr. Jerk]

There's always next week

Theres always next year

Respect the process 

Nothing to see here

 

Ya dig?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

if the queen had balls she'd be the king

 

Well actually the paragraph following the mention about losing the close games kind of said the same thing, but used a slightly less graphic example.  But did make the same point, think he was trying to say maybe last years team was a little lucky to have the 13-3 record too.

[BuffaloMatt]

9 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

if the queen had balls she'd be the king

If IFs and BUTs were candy and nuts

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Just now, BuffaloMatt said:

If IFs and BUTs were candy and nuts

 

I believe those were his exact words LOL

[dorquemada]

To the OP's point though, the Bills did get some bounces last year, and we're not getting them this year.  Add to that the one dimensional O, and it's a recipe for losing close games.  If there was only some solution!

[SCBills]

The parity in football is real, and in games where you're unable to blow out a team, it truly comes down to doing the little things.  

 

3rd down conversions/defensive stops

4th down conversions/defensive stops

Accuracy

Execution in close games

Penalties (although some of this is at the mercy of league-wide terrible officiating)

 

Great article that points out that this team has similar numbers, but is basically choking when it comes to pressure stats and self-inflicted wounds. 

 

Look no further than simple plays that could change the trajectory of a game/our season... I love Allen, and think he's way down the list of our issues, but if he doesn't mess up the QB sneak against Tennessee, we win that game... If he doesn't overthrow Cole on a simple 3rd down conversion against Indy, maybe we get back in the game... if he doesn't spaz and become a turnover machine against Jax, for as bad as we played, we probably win that game.  

 

That said, Allen being a one man band out there most games leads to these types of issues.  Way too much on his plate running a one-dimensional offense, bolstered by a defense that can't stop balanced teams, and you get a QB that starts pressing and making mistakes.  

 

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by SCBills

[MPL]

Last year at halfway point, the Bills (and Steelers) were considered by some to be historically lucky.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-steelers-and-bills-have-been-historically-lucky-so-far-the-chargers-have-not/

So it shouldn't be too surprising to see things not go their way as much this year... though, it still sucks. 

Just a lot of unfortunate stuff this year... Allen not converting a sneak, guys dropping passes that they would have caught last year, McKenzie falling down and fumbling without being touched (I mean, seriously, wtf?). Some of its fundamentals, some of its physicality, some of its mental, and some of it just the way game goes. 

I'm not convinced they can't still get it together and make a run, but my expectations are significantly lowered at this point. 

[nedboy7]

55 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

if the queen had balls she'd be the king

 

Let's be honest, the king doesn't have balls either. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Read the article. It's been a long week (month) for Bills fans, looking to be positive heading forward.

 

I guess the eye test, and what the experts say, especially those who watch film is very contradictory to this analysis.

 

I'm not ready to bet my life savings that this analysis proves more accurate than what I've seen/ heard.

 

TBH, it seems pretty contrived, I know this is where the numbers led me, blah, blah, blah............well prove it, I'll check back at the end of season to see where this goes.

 

I'm guessing we come out a lot closer to 6th or 7th seed or even out of playoffs than the conference championship. And, it won't be all bad luck. Again, hope I'm 100% wrong and they go to the SB.

[Logic]

The article mentioned in the OP is very illuminating and surprising, actually. I highly recommend reading it if you have access to The Athletic. They're running a $1 per month special right now. Anyway...

The findings of Kapada sort of turn some of the popular narratives on their head.

It's NOT necessarily that the Bills are bad against the much ballyhooed two-high look. Allen is actually one of the more successful QBs in the league against that look this seaosn.

It's NOT necessarily that the offensive line is completely to blame (they're average to below average, but are performing at about the same level in terms of pass blocking as last year). 

It's NOT that teams have taken away the deep ball -- to the contrary, it's one of the few things saving the offense.

What IS it, then? As the OP alluded to: Penalties, interceptions at really inopportune times, and terrible success rate converting 4th downs. The Bills, after all, are arguably two converted 4th downs away from being two games better in the standings.

But the conclusion that is most concerning is that Allen is simply throwing the ball less accurately this year. He's still attempting the same types of throws and still attempting tight window throws. His completion percentage above expected has dropped from 2nd to 16th. That's huge! Whether you blame Allen pressing due to penalties and bad o-line play, defenses adjusting, you wearing the wrong t-shirt on gameday, whatever....the fact is that Allen seems to be generally throwing the ball less accurately this year and turning the ball over more, and it's hurting the team.

Anyway, great read. Give it the time if you can.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Logic

[Mike in Horseheads]

I also read the article and thought it was well done and not all doom and gloom. On to NOLA! Go Bills!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, dorquemada said:

To the OP's point though, the Bills did get some bounces last year, and we're not getting them this year.  Add to that the one dimensional O, and it's a recipe for losing close games.  If there was only some solution!

 

One other thing the article didn't mention but from what I recall has also been a difference is injuries.   Last two seasons we stayed pretty injury free.  This year while only one season ending (Zimmer) have had a few more small ones and occurred at the positions the team can least afford.

[HOUSE]

This aggression will not stand man

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

The article mentioned in the OP is very illuminating and surprising, actually. I highly recommend reading it if you have access to The Athletic. They're running a $1 per month special right now. Anyway...

The findings of Kapada sort of turn some of the popular narratives on their head.

It's NOT necessarily that the Bills are bad against the much ballyhooed two-high look. Allen is actually one of the more successful QBs in the league against that look this seaosn.

It's NOT necessarily that the offensive line is completely to blame (they're average to below average, but are performing at about the same level in terms of pass blocking as last year). 

It's NOT that teams have taken away the deep ball -- to the contrary, it's one of the few things saving the offense.

What IS it, then? As the OP alluded to: Penalties, interceptions at really inopportune times, and terrible success rate converting 4th downs. The Bills, after all, are arguably two converted 4th downs away from being two games better in the standings.

But the conclusion that is most concerning is that Allen is simply throwing the ball less accurately this year. He's still attempting the same types of throws and still attempting tight window throws. His completion percentage above expected has dropped from 2nd to 16th. That's huge! Whether you blame Allen pressing due to penalties and bad o-line play, defenses adjusting, you wearing the wrong t-shirt on gameday, whatever....the fact is that Allen seems to be generally throwing the ball less accurately this year and turning the ball over more, and it's hurting the team.

Anyway, great read. Give it the time if you can.

Very true about Allen.  I was at the Bills-Dolphins game in Miami, and even though we dominated because we smoked Miami's QB's, Allen was missing throws and reads all over the field.  He looked very discombobulated in that game.  And has been up and down all season.  Lets hope he can regain some of his accuracy quickly.  I think he plays best, when he is fast and loose, and scrambling on broken plays.  Not the planned runs up the middle because that doesn't work well because he is not super elusive like a Lamar Jackson.  But to the outside where he can outrun most to the corner.  

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, MPL said:

Last year at halfway point, the Bills (and Steelers) were considered by some to be historically lucky.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-steelers-and-bills-have-been-historically-lucky-so-far-the-chargers-have-not/

So it shouldn't be too surprising to see things not go their way as much this year... though, it still sucks. 

Just a lot of unfortunate stuff this year... Allen not converting a sneak, guys dropping passes that they would have caught last year, McKenzie falling down and fumbling without being touched (I mean, seriously, wtf?). Some of its fundamentals, some of its physicality, some of its mental, and some of it just the way game goes. 

I'm not convinced they can't still get it together and make a run, but my expectations are significantly lowered at this point. 

 

I think they can get it together it's just hard when you are in a mindset of "We are amazing talented and don't have to work hard" to "Wow...we better start working hard because we aren't ready to play"

 

It's just hard to flip the switch in reverse. Also, they seem not ready for teams to punch them in the mouth whereas they were the ones punching other teams last year...

[Rigotz]

3 hours ago, dorquemada said:

 

if the queen had balls she'd be the king

 

Or the jester, heyooo

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, dorquemada said:

 

if the queen had balls she'd be the king

If this team had balls they wouldn't be soft.