THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Huge Loss

[Beast]

Even more amusing that the "play action" that fools nobody, may be Josh Allen's hard count that also fools nobody.

 

And, no, I'm not bashing Allen. I am happy he is our QB. I just find his hard counts funny.

[Bob in STL]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

The Colts crushed the Bills, 41-15, on Sunday afternoon. 

 

Coming into the game, the persistent question was “just how good are the 2021 Bills?”

 

Now, we have the answer:  Not very good.

 

November is when good teams emerge in the NFL.  The Bills haven’t emerged, and time is running out.  Fast. 

 

There’s not much to say, so I’ll state the obvious.

 

The Bills have a one-dimensional offense that can’t score against any decent NFL defense, like the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The formula is simple:  Give the Bills nothing deep, rush Allen, ignore the play fake.   Play the receivers tight.

 

Wait.  That’s the formula to stop everyone.  It’s easier said than done.  Well, yes, except against the Bills, it IS easily done.  Why?

 

1.  The Bills can’t run the ball, so the linebackers and defensive backs can ignore the play fake.

 

2.  The Bills can’t pass block, so rushing Allen is easy. 

 

3.  Secure in the knowledge that Allen will have to throw quickly, the defensive backs can clamp down on the short routes, making every throw a tough throw. 

 

It’s hard not to conclude that the offensive line is a problem.  The line creates few easy yards for the running backs, and the line consistently allows quick pressure in Allen’s face.  Remarkably, the Bills really miss rookie Spencer Brown.  Not that Brown has been an All-Star, but he’s been pretty consistent.  Brown’s absence and the season-ending injury to Feliciano have forced the Bills to put Cody Ford on the field, a player who’s had multiple opportunities to produce and simply can’t. 

 

Ford isn’t the only problem.  Mitch Morse seems to be good for a holding penalty flag almost every week.  He holds because he can’t neutralize good power rushers. 

 

Someone’s probably playing well on the line, but I don’t know who it is. 

 

The defensive line presents exactly the opposite problem.   It can’t stop good running teams, and it can’t pressure the quarterback consistently.  Lotulelei out of the lineup made a difference.

 

On both sides, the primary problem is that these players are finesse players, not power players.   The offensive line can’t move the defense off the line of scrimmage, and the defensive line can’t hold the line of scrimmage.  Under those circumstances, the opposing defense can ignore the Bills run game and the play fake, and the opposing offense can run at will forcing the linebackers to play the run and the run fake.   

 

Until the line play changes, it’s hard to imagine that the results will change.

 

Of course, the game got away from the Bills on one play:  After the Colts went up 17-7 late in the first half, the script was clear:  Allen takes the Bills on a scoring drive to close the half 17-10 or 17-14, and then the Bills take the second half kickoff and take over the game.  Instead, Isaiah McKenzie gave the ball away on the kickoff, the Colts make it 24-7, the Bills go three and out to open the second half, and the game was over.

 

Several Bills made critical mistakes, and the lack of discipline and execution was surprising for a McDermott team, but McKenzie’s play – one play – should earn him a ticket out of town before next September.  Harsh?  Not at all.  McKenzie has 5 receptions for 26 yards and 5 rushes for 27 yards.  His primary job, practically his only job, is to return kicks, and ball security is rule number one for kick returners.    

 

In fact, ball security may be the ONLY rule for a kick returner.  Some might say the fumble is worth the risk, because once in a while there’ll be a big return.  Well, no.  There have been over 600 kickoffs returned this season, four for touchdowns.  That’s less than 1% out of kicks returned, and that doesn’t include all kickoffs for touchbacks.  How about punts?  Over 500 punts returned, ZERO TDs, and that doesn’t include the fair catches, punts downed, or punts out of bounds.  These days, kick returning is pretty much all risk and no reward.  Given that reality, McKenzie’s play was unforgiveable. 

 

The Bills now face a big-time gut check:  Go to New Orleans and win on four days’ rest, then come home beat a Patriots team that unlike the Bills, is getting great line play on both sides of the ball.    

 

GO BILLS!

Good post as usual.  
 

I don’t think we are far away from being a dominant team but right now we look like the 1989-90 Bills after a breakout 1988-89 season. 

 

Roster construction on the OL is the root of the problems on offense.  We started the season with Brown and Doyle as backups, both rookies. That was a huge mistake.   Brown is a pleasant surprise but Doyle is not an NFL caliber swing tackle right now.  Williams regression at RT is a major issue that no one saw coming after a pro bowl year. His play is a major negative difference from last season.  He dropped from stud RT to only a serviceable RG at best.  Last year we were weak at OG and yet we brought back the exact same cast.  We did nothing to improve the interior OL.   Feliciano is another year older and it shows.  He is a warrior,  but limited in skills.  Boeggter is not a quality starter or backup.  Ford is a bust.  Morse is average.  Dawkins is having a sub par season that started with Covid complications.   Beane failed the OL and Daboll has not found a way to overcome the problem.  
 

The defense can use more beef, more lead in its azz, but they also cannot stick with a 4-2-5 alignment on running teams.  Just not enough beef in the box.  A little more creative looks maybe?  Why stick with your base when it’s not working?   I think we saw much more evidence on Sunday that Klein is a backup LB and the negative talk about Edmunds needs to stop. 
 

Our defense was terrible in the first half and that’s when we needed the ball and we needed to build a lead ourselves.  Just stopping a few first half 3rd downs conversations, and stopping the dumb penalties, may have been the difference.  We need to play with the lead against running teams. 
 

Special Teams - they have given up several game changing plays this season.  The Pittsburgh blocked punt, the undisciplined holding on a kickoff return that would have swung the Titans game our way,  and the McKenzie fall and fumble.   Last year none of this happened.  
 

McDermott -  he has to be accountable for team readiness, the continued flow of bad penalties, and some ineffective or questionable game management decisions.  

Yes, this season reminds me of the 1989-90 Bills after a breakout 1988-89 season.  Who are the leaders that will emerge and get us back on track.  We are so much better than 6-4.  

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Bob in STL

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

28 minutes ago, Beast said:

Even more amusing that the "play action" that fools nobody, may be Josh Allen's hard count that also fools nobody.

 

And, no, I'm not bashing Allen. I am happy he is our QB. I just find his hard counts funny.

 

I disagree.

 

Allen's hard counts routinely fool his own O-linemen 

 

 

[TheCockSportif]

15 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Yes, this season reminds me of the 1989-90 Bills after a breakout 1988-89 season.  Who are the leaders that will emerge and get us back on track.  We are so much better than 6-4.  

 

 

I am mostly with you here, Bob, and the same thing crossed my mind.  Where things are different with this team involves context, at least in my opinion, to a degree.  1987 Bills were viewed as underachievers, and it was a strike year.  1988 Bills exceeded expectations, and even HBO (I forget the name of their NFL show at that time) called them repeatedly the "Miracle Bills".  1989 Bills underachieved again, and I remember watching the Browns game and rolling my eyes.

 

The difference here, at least to my thinking, is that there was growth between 2018, 2019, and 2020, and that there is a measurable regression in 2021.  I kind of view 2017 as a throwaway season as they were in a lot of transition, and in my opinion, it was not a contributor to future success in terms of personnel moves that would be made in the future.

 

Having written all that, and I'm not yet writing this season off, if these are the 1989 Bills, then most certainly I can't wait to see the 2022 Bills.

[Beast]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I disagree.

 

Allen's hard counts routinely fool his own O-linemen 

 

 

 

OK, that was funny. LOL

[SactoBillFan]

Run the ball. Stop the run. Appears to be harder than it sounds.

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, Groin said:

 

I am mostly with you here, Bob, and the same thing crossed my mind.  Where things are different with this team involves context, at least in my opinion, to a degree.  1987 Bills were viewed as underachievers, and it was a strike year.  1988 Bills exceeded expectations, and even HBO (I forget the name of their NFL show at that time) called them repeatedly the "Miracle Bills".  1989 Bills underachieved again, and I remember watching the Browns game and rolling my eyes.

 

The difference here, at least to my thinking, is that there was growth between 2018, 2019, and 2020, and that there is a measurable regression in 2021.  I kind of view 2017 as a throwaway season as they were in a lot of transition, and in my opinion, it was not a contributor to future success in terms of personnel moves that would be made in the future.

 

Having written all that, and I'm not yet writing this season off, if these are the 1989 Bills, then most certainly I can't wait to see the 2022 Bills.

Yes, I am not writing this season off either, but it looks like we are accomplishing less as team and it’s reflected in the WL record.  
 

We aren’t surprising anybody on offense anymore, everyone knows Allen is the key.  Good defenses have a blueprint on how to keep our offense in check.  Our defense has been very good overall , but certainly with some issues against the run were the  4-2-5 gets outmanned.  
 

Depth is a concern for this team at OL and TE.  The fact that Ford played on Sunday speaks volume about the others on the OL. 
 

I expect NO will try to establish a running game too.  It’s important we jump out to a lead.   Short week, we need to keep it simple and execute the basics.  That means stop the mistakes, penalties, and turnovers.

[ngbills]

This team has deficiencies and Daboll continues to play to those deficiencies. Its like he is one of the TBD posters and wants to prove everyone wrong. Our OL gets no push and teams dont fear the run so lets run slow misdirection type running plays so the RB is hit behind the line and fights for a yard or two. Maybe try running more vertical straight threw gaps so take advantage of LB/DB not attacking the run. Our OL cant sustain a pass block, lets run routes with one read that take 4-5 seconds to develop. We are down some guys so lets utilize an extra blocker, but we run no double TE, FB or extra OL. We have Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, Knox but lets target Moss 7 times in a game. Speaking of Diggs, the guy had 6 catches in all but one game last season. He has less than 6 in 4 of only 10 games already. And before you say Allen does not have time to throw to him, last season his avg yards before catch was 8yd and only 3 times all season last year was that number above 10. This season it is over 9, but in 4 games already it has been over 10. So is Diggs only a deep threat now? Did we forget how to hit him on quick slants, ins, hitches, etc? It is frustrating to watch Daboll bang his head into the wall and not help a struggling team. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by ngbills

[Success]

Is Feliciano really done for the season? I hadn't seen that, and nothing came up when I googled except that he's on IR.

 

I feel like the line could be just good enough for a playoff run - ONLY if they're completely healthy, with Brown and Feliciano. Not what you want, but at least there would be a chance if both guys return.

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Success said:

Is Feliciano really done for the season? I hadn't seen that, and nothing came up when I googled except that he's on IR.

 

I feel like the line could be just good enough for a playoff run - ONLY if they're completely healthy, with Brown and Feliciano. Not what you want, but at least there would be a chance if both guys return.

 

Several people have asked this.   No, he isn't done.  Apparently McDermott said that he'll be back, if not this week, then next week.  I haven't seen that myself - it's just what I think based on comments I've seen from others.   I was wrong in the OP. 

[LeGOATski]

Great point about KR/PR.

 

I mean Andre Roberts didn't torch anyone for TDs, but he was super solid and consistently gave them good field position. I really miss him.

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Nobody's ignoring the play fake. Which is part of the reason we didn't run all that well. They're reacting to it. But they are then covering well deep, and without Spencer Brown, which then puts Williams back at a position he's just not playing well at this year, and without Feliciano, this OL just isn't getting it done.

 

When Brown and Feliciano get back, look for quite a bit of improvement. That's how it's worked so far this year.

 

I noticed you said Feliciano is out for the year. Is that right? Did I miss something? I thought he was out for three weeks. I know this very recent Buffalo News story (42 minutes old as I write this) has him eligible to return now, and coming back.

 

 

---------------

“'I feel really good. If it wasn’t a short week, I think there would be a good chance that I would be able to get in,' he said Monday. 'But also, we’ll see how it goes. Not counting anything out.'

 

"Coach Sean McDermott said Monday the team is 'just going to wait and see, and see how it goes the next day or two here' before making a decision.

Feliciano did not practice Monday, and with the short week, it is unlikely he’ll be back for Thursday’s game against the Saints. During his stretch on injured reserve, he’s had a different vantage point of his position group."

---------------

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-guard-jon-feliciano-gives-back-for-thanksgiving-while-still-on-injured-reserve/article_28afd9d4-4c03-11ec-aac6-cf1954d50b7e.html

 

Feliciano's not terrific, but the starting five have played much better than when replacements have to step in.

 

And while I agree with you on how awful and how gigantic the McKenzie play was in this game, I think you pushed the argument a bit when you list only 4 TDs as positive difference-makers. Returns that go beyond about the 40 yard line make a major difference in likelihood of scoring and momentum change. And there have been a lot more than 4 excellent long returns this year in the NFL. Agree, though, that that play was inexcusable, just awful. As dangerous as he is, this has to make them think about how they are using McKenzie.

 

Good post, on an awful game.

 

 

 

 

Thurm -

 

Thanks for the thoughtful comments.  You're right, more than touchdown returns matter, but there are only about 15-20 guys who have a kickoff return of 40 or more.   Are you willing to trade one kickoff return from the goal line to the 50 for one muff at the 15?   Not me.    And there are practically no punt returns over 20.  A few, here and there, but it's miniscule compared to the number of punts.  

 

I'm not an analytics guy, and I'd never thought about this before McKenzie's fumble, but I'd gladly give up five yards per return for a guarantee that there will be no fumbles.   Fumbled kicks are by far the biggest game changing play in football.   You're giving up possession of the ball, and instead you get another possession inside the red zone.   On a kickoff, it's like a super-onside kick.   On a punt, it's like a 50-yard fake punt.   

 

Just seems to me that given how the safety rule changes have made it harder to return punts and kickoffs (because the blockers' hands are tied), the risk-reward is out of whack.   It's almost like the smart play is to get the free yards you can, then give yourself up.   By all means, do not fumble. 

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Thurm -

 

Thanks for the thoughtful comments.  You're right, more than touchdown returns matter, but there are only about 15-20 guys who have a kickoff return of 40 or more.   Are you willing to trade one kickoff return from the goal line to the 50 for one muff at the 15?   Not me.    And there are practically no punt returns over 20.  A few, here and there, but it's miniscule compared to the number of punts.  

 

I'm not an analytics guy, and I'd never thought about this before McKenzie's fumble, but I'd gladly give up five yards per return for a guarantee that there will be no fumbles.   Fumbled kicks are by far the biggest game changing play in football.   You're giving up possession of the ball, and instead you get another possession inside the red zone.   On a kickoff, it's like a super-onside kick.   On a punt, it's like a 50-yard fake punt.   

 

Just seems to me that given how the safety rule changes have made it harder to return punts and kickoffs (because the blockers' hands are tied), the risk-reward is out of whack.   It's almost like the smart play is to get the free yards you can, then give yourself up.   By all means, do not fumble. 

I'm sure nobody would. Kind of a common sense thing that should go without saying.. At least I hope nobody would and be serious lol

[AlfaBill]

21 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would like to ask Daboll "what do you believe this offense does best?" I'm not sure he knows the answer. Last year the answer was emphatically "Allen throwing the ball to WRs" and that made it easy to call plays. This year that identity isn't working. And I think because Daboll doesn't know what our identity should be, he is floundering. He is calling plays and changing personnel haphazardly with no attempt to build rhythm. It's like he is pulling play calls out of a hat. Regardless of how our line is holding up or what the opposing defense is doing, the play that gets drawn simply must be called.

 

The offense has been out of sync most of the year, and I can't solely blame the o-line or any player for all of the issues. Daboll's job is to create an identity for the offense and design a weekly game plan around that identity. Yet every week the game plan is the same - Allen drops back and waits 5 seconds for long developing routes to break open so that he can throw a lower percentage pass; occasionally slam Singletary or Moss into the backs of their own linemen; hard counts that confuse our own players more than the opponent. Concepts that seemingly always work when we call them this year, like jet sweeps and Breida outside runs, are called rarely. Concepts that never work, like Moss runs inside the red zone, are called ad nauseum. Maybe Daboll needs to adjust the quantity of certain play calls in his hat.

 

It feels weird complaining about the offense after a game that was mostly lost by the defense. But I am actually quite confident the defense will get back to its elite form once Star and Edmunds are back. It's hard to beat an elite rush offense when the core middle of your front 7 is taken off the board. Our run defense sucked without Star last year and it still sucks without him this year. I don't see any real cause for concern there. The offense on the other hand showed the same issues that have plagued them all year and I'm losing faith that Daboll is capable of making the necessary adjustments. I thought he had finally figured it out with some of the different looks we saw in the Jets game... but I guess that was just a lucky week where the right plays got pulled out of the hat.

Well put and all that needs to be said is right here. 

[Shaw66]

23 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

 

 

McDermott -  he has to be accountable for team readiness, the continued flow of bad penalties, and some ineffective or questionable game management decisions.  

 

 

I agree about this.  The look of this team is different from prior years.  They seem to expect they will win.

 

Was it the Jags game when McD declined a third down holding penalty and the opponent then kicked a 56 yard field goal on fourth down?  

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree about this.  The look of this team is different from prior years.  They seem to expect they will win.

 

Was it the Jags game when McD declined a third down holding penalty and the opponent then kicked a 56 yard field goal on fourth down?  

Correct.  Last year he made better game day decisions. 
 

When it comes to readiness and execution, the coaches can do only so much. At some point the players self motivation had to take over.   Who are the leaders?   Which players hold others accountable?     

[Billl]

On 11/23/2021 at 7:05 AM, bmur66 said:

I was calling the Colts game a "gut check". It was predictable. How they performed in the 4th quarter said it all.

They outscored the Colts 8-3 in the 4th quarter.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

They outscored the Colts 8-3 in the 4th quarter.

Under the circumstances, that means they lost the 4th quarter.  They gave up 10-play field goal drive that took 6 minutes off the clock.  Then they threw an interception.  

 

Truth is, if McKenzie doesn't fumble and Bass makes two field goals, the game is 34-21 and a better 4th quarter might have won the game.