The Ringer: How Did the Buffalo Bills Go From the Top of the AFC to the Fringe of the Playoff Picture?

[Reks Ryan]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I would be interested in seeing your list of guys who would have this team at 6-4. Specifically which other ton of QBS would have won the Chiefs game.

I agree w your premise. Allen is not the problem.  And he might be the toughest guy on a team that is lacking tough guys.

 

But most replacement level QBs would’ve beat Jax with the way our D played.  So that’s a trade off on the Chiefs game.  Bills D destroyed the Fish, Jets, and Texans.   Allen was awesome against WFT

[Weatherman]

14 hours ago, Success said:

To me, 99% of Allen's regression is factors he can't control.

 

Bad protection & run game. Similar issues to last year when he did well - but clearly, defenses have adjusted to who the Bills are.  When a D doesn't respect the run game, it gets much harder for a QB.

 

Josh’s decision making has been poor.  He refuses to throw the ball away and forces awful throws into double and triple coverage.  

[Nihilarian]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Nope. Run the ball and stop the run requires players we currently don't have on the roster. 

I don't fully agree with this. Tough to stop the run playing the entire game in a nickle defense.

 

The Bills could run the ball "if" they focused on doing just that. Instead they keep focused on that mid to deep passing game that most every team has figured out how to defend. I don't get how an offense refuses to overcome a scheme that can be beaten by a certain defense.

 

McD needs to have his assistants make some scheme changes or this team doesn't even sniff the playoffs in 2021.

[Solomon Grundy]

16 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Certainly validates what most posters are saying.  Defenses don’t even have to think about defending the run against Bills.  And our defense isn’t built to stop the run.  

Levy's famous quote "in order to win in the NFL you have to be able to run and stop the run". Maybe plaster it to wall in Daboll office? 

[stosh64]

18 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/11/22/22796777/buffalo-bills-lose-colts-skid-playoffs-patriots-afc-east
 

 

That seemed to blame mostly Josh, I blame mostly Daboll.  His fat ass has to go.

[colin]

10 minutes ago, stosh64 said:

That seemed to blame mostly Josh, I blame mostly Daboll.  His fat ass has to go.

 

 

the d got run out the building vs tenn and indy (as a prior post mentioned).  if we didn't have a penalty on the kick off return for a td, we go up 4 vs tenn with little time left.  if we converted in ther ed zone, we go up 4 w no time left.  that was a close game at the least.

 

vs indy, we got super trucked and mashed, but even a really good defensive performance woulda lost that game.

 

against jax and pittz, d played well, special teams and offensive woes killed us.

 

between the above, and the massive penalty problem, this team is simply not coached well or disciplined.  any adversity gets us sulking.

 

and to me the biggest and most obvious element of this is Daboll.  he's a fat clown who has one great statistical season in a strange no audience covid year when allen broke out with diggs and beaz and davis balling out of control.  he is reverting to the mean of his career with a quickness.  his trash scheme, garbage protections, and complete lack of feel for who a game is going and how to organize an O is just glaringly obvious.  

 

im willing to let mccorch and the d corches work their way back to my good graces, but the offensive staff are rank beginners and have simply been bailed out by allen being super man much of the time.

[thenorthremembers]

Stopped reading when they said we havent had injury issues.  We played last game without 4 starters.   Weve had plenty of injury and covid issues.

[SoCal Deek]

The Bills are ten weeks into the season. The roster isn’t going to change now and neither is their ability to run block. So what do you do? As much as I cringe to say it, they may have to abandon the run altogether and just consider short  passes as their version of the run game. Quick slants, short bunch formations, WR screens and misdirection throw back plays galore. Move the chains.  

[CEN-CAL17]

Cause it’s a physical sport. This Bills team just isn’t physical enough in the trenches. McD thinks they are. Yet it’s been proven in multiple games they can’t run the ball or stop the run.  If we take McDs word… it must be all poor game planning. Now it’s on the coaches.  
 

Reasons are….. Poor play in the trenches, Game planning and coaching. 

[DCOrange]

11 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Stopped reading when they said we havent had injury issues.  We played last game without 4 starters.   Weve had plenty of injury and covid issues.

I mean, it's an objective fact lol. Knox, Edmunds, Star, and Brown have missed a couple games and that's pretty much it. Another way to look at it can be found on Spotrac, where they track the % of a team's salary cap tied up in players on reserve lists.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/injured-reserve/

Buffalo is #31 out of 32 with $5 million worth of players on reserve. The Chiefs are dead last at $4.4 mil while the average team (excluding Buffalo) has $22.5 mil on reserve (Denver is #1 at $40.8 mil).

 

Buffalo is almost always near the bottom of the league in terms of salary wasting away on reserve lists; be it weirdly good luck or something our medical team does, we're pretty much always significantly healthier than our opponents.

[HappyDays]

17 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The author uses this video as evidence for what you're suggesting Allen should be doing:

 

https://streamable.com/rl02sf

 

This is an empty set WITH A SEVEN STEP DROP! There are two checkdown options but it's obvious the intent on this play is for a deep pass...there is a reason he holds the ball for a long time and his short passes are dump offs: that's largely what's being called/available.

 

Also Allen made the correct read on the play based on the leverage of the safety:

 

 

What actually happened is that Davis was unable to separate on his break and both DBs had excellent reps.

 

It's laughable that people are asking Allen to anticipate all of that happening and throw a check down on 3rd and 18.

 

Side note - Davis cannot be trusted as a #2 outside WR. He has good vertical speed and makes difficult catches but does not separate well. He has the skill set of a very good #4 WR.

[Jerome007]

Since they play the 4-2-5 nickel so much, why not try an occasional 5-2-4? They have a lot of DLs so that they could use 5 at times, and free the LBs to tackle if nothing else.

 

When the opposing OL is pushing the Bills DL 3-4 yards down the field, it matters little if it's nickel or not back there.

 

Since the Jets game, the Bills O have used the FB a lot more and added a 6th OL a few times too. Try something different on the D when facing run heavy teams!

[Success]

Others have said it, but it is ironic:  Beane focused the offseason on getting past KC, which I think most of Bills fandom thought was logical.  And we beat KC.

 

But now we have a hard time with every other good team.  It all seems so glaring when I watch other teams - the good ones can ALL run, and most can stop the run. The Bills aren't really built to do either right now.

 

[FilthyBeast]

16 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I know this stat.  It’s been 25 straight seasons where at least one of the four teams who made it to the NFC and AFC championship game did not make the playoffs the following season.  That’s a hell of a stat.  The extra playoff team in each conference might help end the streak though.  

 

That's truly insane if it's that long but still very telling and a bad omen because as mentioned the only viable candidate right now is the Bills.

 

Packers and Bucs aren't perfect but both are locks for the playoffs at this point. And the Chiefs aren't going to magically revert back to the team they were a few months ago and it's crazy but their defense might be the best in the league right now and it's no coincidence this is happening with an elite player like Chris Jones back in the lineup and healthy.

 

So yay if the Bills don't magically turn things around they will keep that streak going sadly.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Success said:

Others have said it, but it is ironic:  Beane focused the offseason on getting past KC, which I think most of Bills fandom thought was logical.  And we beat KC.

 

But now we have a hard time with every other good team.  It all seems so glaring when I watch other teams - the good ones can ALL run, and most can stop the run. The Bills aren't really built to do either right now.

 

 

Stating the obvious but...

 

The mistake there is building to beat one team instead of building to beat any and every team with classic, foundational football. Especially in a league with rules that create churn, parity, and set the stage for that one team to be completely different year over year.

[JohnNord]

On 11/22/2021 at 1:52 PM, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/11/22/22796777/buffalo-bills-lose-colts-skid-playoffs-patriots-afc-east
 

 

I don’t think the issue is as much on Josh as it is around his supporting cast.

 

What were the commonalities in 3 out of 4 Bills losses offensively?

 

- Bills offensive line was absolutely overwhelmed

- Bills had no threat of a running game.

- Josh unraveled when things were going poorly.

 

I think #3 is a factor of the other two.  
 

In 2 of the 4 games the Bills defensive line was just manhandled and they couldn’t get the opposing offense off the field.

 

The issues is physicality on offense and defense. 

[Nextmanup]

17 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I know this stat.  It’s been 25 straight seasons where at least one of the four teams who made it to the NFC and AFC championship game did not make the playoffs the following season.  That’s a hell of a stat.  The extra playoff team in each conference might help end the streak though.  

Just goes to show how up and down the NFL can be from just 1 year to the next.

 

And yet football fans constantly make the mistake of judging "now" based on what happened "last year."

 

The league is very even to begin with, and then every team is a moving work in progress, every year.

It's all a very fluid situation and making assessments based on absolutes determined 6 months ago is foolish.

 

A lot of Bills fans here, right now, are having trouble realizing that New England is a huge threat to us this season.

 

I think they watched NE play their first few games on TV this year, and concluded they weren't that good based on those performances.  So they get slotted away in their mind as "not good" when in fact, they are playing much better than us lately and probably have a better defense....with much better coaching to boot.

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

2 hours ago, Success said:

Others have said it, but it is ironic:  Beane focused the offseason on getting past KC, which I think most of Bills fandom thought was logical.  And we beat KC.

 

But now we have a hard time with every other good team.  It all seems so glaring when I watch other teams - the good ones can ALL run, and most can stop the run. The Bills aren't really built to do either right now.

 

 

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Stating the obvious but...

 

The mistake there is building to beat one team instead of building to beat any and every team with classic, foundational football. Especially in a league with rules that create churn, parity, and set the stage for that one team to be completely different year over year.

I'm not sure the whole focus was just on beating KC. I'm sure was definitely part of it, but I find it hard to believe Beane as a GM made every decision/etc just for KC. I think it's possible that part of reason for quiet off season could be because he had/has the confidence that this same roster can get it done? 

 

But yeah, I agree some of the focus was KC, but not everything

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

I'm not sure the whole focus was just on beating KC. I'm sure was definitely part of it, but I find it hard to believe Beane as a GM made every decision/etc just for KC. I think it's possible that part of reason for quiet off season could be because he had/has the confidence that this same roster can get it done? 

 

But yeah, I agree some of the focus was KC, but not everything

 

 

 

I'd like to agree with you, but with the way the KC game has served as such a demarcification point between the Good Bills, and Bad Bills, it seems not only the FO, but the entire team came into this season with a singular focus. Not, unfortunately, winning the Super Bowl. But rather, beating the Chiefs. And once we did that, everyone checked out.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'd like to agree with you, but with the way the KC game has served as such a demarcification point between the Good Bills, and Bad Bills, it seems not only the FO, but the entire team came into this season with a singular focus. Not, unfortunately, winning the Super Bowl. But rather, beating the Chiefs. And once we did that, everyone checked out.

Well I mean of course the team was pumped and eager to get a piece of KC with the Championship game loss on their mind. I'm talking about Beane in general as other poster said. A GM would be doing a bad job if focusing the entire off season making decisions/roster moves etc basing it off one team.