The Ringer: How Did the Buffalo Bills Go From the Top of the AFC to the Fringe of the Playoff Picture?

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

And 21 TDs to 8 INTs.  

 

Allen hasn't regressed but oline and running game have 

 

And Herbert got to play Pittsburgh's JV defense last night.  It's nice to dump it off to a RB that makes 6 guys miss 

 

This Ruiz hates Allen - for those that don't follow him on Twitter.  But the other stuff about the O is correct and Allen can only over come so much.  Especially with Beasley hurt and Sanders beginning to run out of gas. 

 

Heard this stat today..  Sanders is currently NUMBER 1 in air yards per target (it might be per catch) in the league - and he is dead LAST in YAC.  Only Diggs and Knox have been good run after catch.   

The run game hasn't really regressed, at least not in any meaningful way from last year. Singletary's numbers are up across the board this season. Moss' YPC is lower but his DVOA is up. Our rushing stats as a team are up across the board as well. Allen's numbers are down pretty much across the board: TD%, INT%, YPG, YPA, NY/A, QBR, passer rating, etc. Everything is at least slightly trending down compared to last year despite a much easier slate of games this year.

 

Is it as simple as Allen playing worse? Maybe a little bit, but there's plenty of blame to go around and even if he is playing a bit worse than he did a year ago, he certainly isn't our weakness or anything.

 

Fact of the matter is, we rely on our QB moreso than most teams in the league, so any slight regression in his play will be felt more than a lot of other teams would.

Edited November 22, 2021 by DCOrange

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

Again against the Colts Allen was throwing all sorts of quick short passes.  Were you watching the game?  The issue though was twofold:

 

* Any kind of negative yardage play (you know those off tackle runs that lose 2 yards) or penalty (you know holding & false starts) screws this up and forces us to try to stretch the field.  This is why short quick passes are seldom a sustainable form of offensive scheme (see Jets Mike White and Dolphins Tua this season or last years Steelers team). 

 

*  The other issue with the short passing scheme is it chews up time. This would be great if the Bills defense could get a running team off the field but in two losses they haven't been able to.  So yesterday, the Bills had the ball twice from the start of the game to the 2 minute warning.  TWICE!!!!  They scored a TD on one of those drives and on the other drove to the Colts 30 before back to back O-line penalties took them out of FG range and into a 3rd & 18. By the time the Bills got the ball for a 3rd possession they were down 24 - 7 in the last 2 minutes of the half. Hardly the place to go check down Charlies.

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

But for argument sake - he could be why we 6-4 and not 9-1 or 8-2. That is a better debate than saying he is the reason we are not 3-7. This D has been lights out and a ton of QB's could have us at 6-4 especially with the easy schedule. 

The defense has NOT been lights out when we've faced a strong offense.  Even against KC the Chiefs moved up and down the field.  Allen put pressure on Mahomes and the Chiefs Offense by moving the ball and scoring 31 points.  This forced Mahomes and the Chiefs to force the ball leading to bad TO's. 

 

And for sure I would hang the primary reason for the Bills losses against TN & Indy on the defense.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

It's a factor. But we saw the Patriots utilize a short, quick passing game in replacement of a running game for YEARS. It can be done. We aren't even trying it. Which is weird considering Daboll was with the Pats during that time.

The Pats were able to do this because:

 

*  They committed very few offensive penalties. We used to cry that it was because the refs were in the bag.  The reality is that the Pats coach their players not to commit dumb penalties and if they keep doing it they get rid of them.

 

*  During those years the Pats had a great O0line to enable a strong running game. And while they didn't have a King Henry or Taylor they did have a stable of solid NFL RB's.  Our O-line and RB's wouldn't see the field on those Pats teams.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Again against the Colts Allen was throwing all sorts of quick short passes.  Were you watching the game?  The issue though was twofold:

 

* Any kind of negative yardage play (you know those off tackle runs that lose 2 yards) or penalty (you know holding & false starts) screws this up and forces us to try to stretch the field.  This is why short quick passes are seldom a sustainable form of offensive scheme (see Jets Mike White and Dolphins Tua this season or last years Steelers team). 

 

*  The other issue with the short passing scheme is it chews up time. This would be great if the Bills defense could get a running team off the field but in two losses they haven't been able to.  So yesterday, the Bills had the ball twice from the start of the game to the 2 minute warning.  TWICE!!!!  They scored a TD on one of those drives and on the other drove to the Colts 30 before back to back O-line penalties took them out of FG range and into a 3rd & 18. By the time the Bills got the ball for a 3rd possession they were down 24 - 7 in the last 2 minutes of the half. Hardly the place to go check down Charlies.

 

 

Yeah I watched the game. But did you read the article this thread is based on?

 

Quote

Allen’s 2.91-second average time to throw was his second-highest of the season...

 

So not sure I completely agree with your assessment.

 

My point in the post you quoted was about getting the ball out QUICKLY. Like much closer to 2 seconds.

 

And to use those plays as a substitute for a running game, since we have neither the line nor the backs to run the ball.

 

Obviously, when we're in a situation that takes away the running game (being down big, late), then that takes away all of those plays, and we're going to try to push it downfield.

 

However, I have seen the Pats effectively control the clock even with the short game, since the plays are quick and the WR is typically on an out route and already heading to the sideline. I can specifically remember Edelman crushing the Ravens over and over in a playoff game with simple, short, quick outs that moved the ball down the field but took little time off the clock.

 

It isnt checking down to any Charlies. That would be what Josh was doing yesterday after holding the ball far too long.

 

I'm talking designed, fast, short passes. Get the ball out immediately to the primary receiver.

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The Pats were able to do this because:

 

*  They committed very few offensive penalties. We used to cry that it was because the refs were in the bag.  The reality is that the Pats coach their players not to commit dumb penalties and if they keep doing it they get rid of them.

 

*  During those years the Pats had a great O0line to enable a strong running game. And while they didn't have a King Henry or Taylor they did have a stable of solid NFL RB's.  Our O-line and RB's wouldn't see the field on those Pats teams.

 

The offense gets far less penalties when OL only have to block for a second instead of 3 or 4. They jump far less when the entire O is in a rhythm from connecting short, quick passes.

 

They were ok, and made to look better by the passing game. Agreed none of our current schlubs would be let in their building.

[maddenboy]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo619 said:

Not making the playoffs would be a Billsy epic disaster.  On the fringe after this past embarrassing lose. Boys better put their man boots on and finish. We can still win the division if they could harden up a bit. 

Its starting to feel like we will miss the playoffs.  And be better next year for it.

 

Like when you lose one game badly, and later in the season you say "in hindsight that was a good loss for our team.  woke us up."

 

I can hear us in 2022 saying "It sucked like hell to miss the playoffs the year after the AFCCG, but in hindsight, that was just what this team needed.  To remember to take every single play seriously, and not just start planning for the playoffs in training camp."

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

It's a factor. But we saw the Patriots utilize a short, quick passing game in replacement of a running game for YEARS. It can be done. We aren't even trying it. Which is weird considering Daboll was with the Pats during that time.

 

Most years the Patriots ranked top-10 in rushing attempts and yards.

 

Except for Brady's very first years, they were never a run-first team, but they have always had a good enough run game that if teams wanted to win over them, they had to respect it.

 

I can remember several painful and frustrating Bills-Pats games where we successfully shut down their passing attack and they ran it down our throats- over.  and over.

[FilthyBeast]

One important item to start considering.....I forgot the official statistic, but something like the last 10 years regarding the final four teams in the playoffs the previous year (conference championship games) at least one did not make the playoffs at all the following season.

 

For a while everyone thought this year that team was the Chiefs and the trend would continue, but they are well back on track to not only make the playoffs but win the AFC West again. So right now that team looks like the Bills which would have been crazy to think just a few weeks ago but you reap what you sow and this team is falling off the map and will essentially be buried if they don't find a way to beat the Saints on the road.

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

One important item to start considering.....I forgot the official statistic, but something like the last 10 years regarding the final four teams in the playoffs the previous year (conference championship games) at least one did not make the playoffs at all the following season.

 

For a while everyone thought this year that team was the Chiefs and the trend would continue, but they are well back on track to not only make the playoffs but win the AFC West again. So right now that team looks like the Bills which would have been crazy to think just a few weeks ago but you reap what you sow and this team is falling off the map and will essentially be buried if they don't find a way to beat the Saints on the road.

That means absolutely nothing. Now if Bills continue to play like yesterday (which I 100% don't think they will) absolutely they would and should miss playoffs.

 

But if they do make playoffs or if they don't will have nothing to do with that, which goes without saying imo

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, ngbills said:

But for argument sake - he could be why we 6-4 and not 9-1 or 8-2. That is a better debate than saying he is the reason we are not 3-7. This D has been lights out and a ton of QB's could have us at 6-4 especially with the easy schedule. 

 

They were not lights out against Indy or Tenn.

[ngbills]

29 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The defense has NOT been lights out when we've faced a strong offense.  Even against KC the Chiefs moved up and down the field.  Allen put pressure on Mahomes and the Chiefs Offense by moving the ball and scoring 31 points.  This forced Mahomes and the Chiefs to force the ball leading to bad TO's. 

 

And for sure I would hang the primary reason for the Bills losses against TN & Indy on the defense.

 

 

Disagree. Before yesterday Tenn is the only team that did jack. 

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

They were not lights out against Indy or Tenn.

Score 24 and they are 8-2

[Scott7975]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Disagree. Before yesterday Tenn is the only team that did jack. 

Score 24 and they are 8-2

 

What?  I dont get it.  How does the defense giving up a score every drive become the Bills 8-2 if they score 24?  

[ngbills]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

What?  I dont get it.  How does the defense giving up a score every drive become the Bills 8-2 if they score 24?  

The D has put them in a position to win every game but Ten and Ind. 

[Jrb1979]

Today on WGR they were saying if the Bills don't win the last 3 AFC games it will come down to Tie Breakers. Their AFC record is only 5-4. 

[Scott7975]

Just now, ngbills said:

The D has put them in a position to win every game but Ten and Ind. 

 

Yes and that is half our losses.

1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said:

Today on WGR they were saying if the Bills don't win the last 3 AFC games it will come down to Tie Breakers. Their AFC record is only 5-4. 

 

That would be correct.  We had a good conference record but that is no longer the case.  They need to sweep the Pats pretty much.  Not much room for error there.

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Depends…. A split with the Patriots and if they tie them with the same record(assuming they beat the Jets in week 18) then Bills would win the division due to division record tie breaker. …. As of right now though I think the Patriots would beat the Bills in both games. 

 

Yeah thats what I was getting at.  As for the Patriots beating the Bills... yeah if the Bills dont get their ***** together its going to look just like the Indy game.

[Patrick Duffy]

18 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Depends…. A split with the Patriots and if they tie them with the same record(assuming they beat the Jets in week 18) then Bills would win the division due to division record tie breaker. …. As of right now though I think the Patriots would beat the Bills in both games. 

Well I definitely agree, if Bills have the same Oline personnel having to play as yesterday/Jags Pats could for sure sweep. If they have Brown, Mongo back with DW back at G which with that line-up they have been at their best pretty much, no way do Pats win both games. I could see a split, but as long as Bills don't put that same Oline with Ford out Bills should win at least 1

 

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just make the playoffs and go on a run. Allen is still a top 3 QB. He can make up for a lot of deficiencies. He can also play hero ball and lose games too. Allen is the only hope this year.

 

Beane and his precious future draft picks may have cost the team a chance at a championship this year. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

One important item to start considering.....I forgot the official statistic, but something like the last 10 years regarding the final four teams in the playoffs the previous year (conference championship games) at least one did not make the playoffs at all the following season.

 

For a while everyone thought this year that team was the Chiefs and the trend would continue, but they are well back on track to not only make the playoffs but win the AFC West again. So right now that team looks like the Bills which would have been crazy to think just a few weeks ago but you reap what you sow and this team is falling off the map and will essentially be buried if they don't find a way to beat the Saints on the road.

I know this stat.  It’s been 25 straight seasons where at least one of the four teams who made it to the NFC and AFC championship game did not make the playoffs the following season.  That’s a hell of a stat.  The extra playoff team in each conference might help end the streak though.  

[DrPJax]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Certainly validates what most posters are saying.  Defenses don’t even have to think about defending the run against Bills.  And our defense isn’t built to stop the run.  

It does. Article makes it look fairly simple.  The defenses have figured out our team has been built predominantly with passing n mind in offense.   This is compounded by mcds lack of offensive knowledge/ concepts being a defensive specialist.  He turned all his trust to Daboll , who many have noted , does not have a history of running top rated offenses.  He focused on the passing game given the qb with an amazing arm.  He has Refused to develop any real semblance of a running game, even at times with some success he remains arrogant in his refusal to commit to it.  Example; moss& motor struggle, yet Brieda never saw the field until the 9 th week and even with success yesterday early in the game , he got less than 10 touches. Actually happened the year before as well when despite occasional success, Yeldon remained benched.  Brieda has speed that made the difference in success of run plays , but Daboll obviously is not proficient at run design so he still avoids it.  
Why tho, when it’s knowledge around the league how to make Josh struggle , would the head coach ALLOW the lack of running to continue?   I just can’t see longer tenured , successful coaches like Tomlin, Belicheck ,etc deferring. To the offensive coordinator with the teams success on the line.   We all as amateurs see the issue and problems it’s creating.  One dimensional offense which is getting easier to defend.  The season Is on the line ; question is can Mcd either demand a different gsme plan from Daboll or does he have fortitude to turn play calling over , at least as a trail , to someone like the qb coach if Daboll can’t design or refuses to run more?   That’s not hyperbole, we are the last place playoff team and the toughest part of the schedule remains. Josh is not responding to coaching as he refuses to throw Short routes before holding the ball and repeatedly checking if he could still try a deep pattern like the one that  resulted in the first int yesterday.  My gut feeling, based on 5 years of Mcd, is we see no changes and we will get out-coached by the Bucs , and the pats .    Mcd is a guy of habit , he hasn’t yielded so far , and I expect more of what we saw when we play teams with strong running games which is unfortunate watching  the pats offense and with Belicheck s history of almost total dominance over Mcd.
 

Mcd, who seems to be very loyal , may be struggling with his admirable loyalty, as it makes it difficult to confront those he sees as equal peers, like Daboll and Frazier.  Despite two games ( and others in prior seasons where we saw absolute beat downs against running teams) Frazier  absolutely would not switch out of the 4-2-5 even against the two best runners in the league !  It’s almost a level of arrogance that says, go ahead and beat us, pound us, but I / we will show you eventually We are right and this d is better if WE JUST EXECUTE it properly.  Frazier’s D has seemed ok against lessor competition , but the Titans and Colts , actual playoff caliber teams, ran all over our D.   The colts threw for under 140 yards, yet we stuck in a defensive scheme designed to defend the pass which was getting blown away by the power  run blocking scheme.    Who’s really in control of the D.?  Is the 4-2-5 mcds scheme which he will steadfastly stick to regardless of in game results, or is it from Frazier and Mcd’ s personality won’t allow him to demand  a change even as we see results consistently showing the Bills can’t compete against capable running teams. I don’t know how else to explain watching your d being destroyed , yet not even trying any different scheme!  Didn’t Mcd once take over play calling in the D?   This game , I believe, is emblematic of the problems that I can’t envision suddenly going away and us going on a winning streak !  Facts are facts; we haven’t won two in a row in a month so what woiod make us think  we suddenly will win out?  Even if we get lucky and beat the Saints, I can’t see yesterdays team beating the Bucs or the Pats.  That article seems well researched and this team seems on track for disappointing results. Mcd is a guy of habit , and I think it will take the reality of having this season slowly slip away before making needed changes next year. I really hope this is Dabolls last year with the Bills. Two years of ignoring running and a balanced offense is enough for me. I’m on the fence with Frazier , willing to see if he is capable of adapting when we face this years Pars and Bucs.   The results are what I hope drives mcds staff choices for the next year. 
 

Lastly, as I stated before ,hearing players like Josh say “ that’s not us” ,is part of this culture that Mcd has fostered and in some ways I think hinders them from honest self evaluation.  The “24” hour rule seems ok On the surface, as the mantra echoed by every player that “ it’s just one game, we will flush it”: yet is like a state of denial.  EVERY GAME matters, success is built on prior success.  Losing. Also builds on itself. These losses matter; already we have lost a goal of a home AFC  CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ( in all likelihood) , and in getting to the SB, home field matters; how coukd we not know that after losing in KC!?   Time for this team to face facts!  Josh, yes you are a mediocre 6-4 team with no offensive identity , and you Need to be honest that ( despite stats , as only W’s matter) your play and turnovers are contributing to losses.  Stop the lip service about “ I can’t do that” , “ I’ve got to be better with ball security” etc thats heard every week  , and ACTUALLY PLAY THAT WAY !  Be a leader, get in some guys faces ( like the o line guys getting you killed, remember Kelly chewing out house Ballard)  actually TAKE THE SHORT OPEN ROUTES instead of holding the ball so long!   Why not get  back to work on your fundamentals ( balls above, behind, low to open receivers when you are NOT PRESSURED) !  Your play has slipped and let’s not keep focusing on MVP crap!  
 

I greatly respect Mcd , but the mantra of it’s just one game, ( losing against the colts was a much different loss than the jags or Steelers loss) downplays and minimizes the significance of a bad trend and almost makes admitting emotion like anger over a loss akin to a bad trait!  We need some leaders on this team who actually get pissed, show that ALL these games have meaning, quit dismissing losses as “ that’s not us” ,and point out each loss means  a ton if we end up on the road for the entire playoffs!  This culture may be adding to the softening of this team as they give at least the appearance that losing is so quickly forgotten , and it really isn’t that bad !   I would love to see them get back on a winning streak , but so far I admit I don’t see clues leading me to be hopeful, and that article is also shooting up warning flares!