The Ringer: How Did the Buffalo Bills Go From the Top of the AFC to the Fringe of the Playoff Picture?

[corta765]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The transition from a Bills team on the ascend (the past couple seasons) to a team circling the drain is humbling.  It's tough to take how quickly things can go South.

 

 

 

I mean I think for the next few years Buffalo will still be viewed as a team very much in the thick of it. It is on the Bills to finish the job and not be an also ran.

[DrDawkinstein]

23 minutes ago, Success said:

To me, 99% of Allen's regression is factors he can't control.

 

Bad protection & run game. Similar issues to last year when he did well - but clearly, defenses have adjusted to who the Bills are.  When a D doesn't respect the run game, it gets much harder for a QB.

 

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

[Success]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

 

I respect that, and it does seem like the short game should be easier. It's kind of like we have it now as a fallback, instead of being designed that way - maybe if we go into a game and that's the gameplan, like the Pats do w/ Jones.  

 

But I see the hero ball & lack of help as being intertwined. I think Allen has gone back to more hero ball out of desperation - basically, because there isn't much help out there for him.  You can only take so many sacks & have so many 3rd & longs before you start forcing the issue.

 

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

You don’t think the fact that defenses can disguise coverages without even thinking about stopping a run game has to do with Josh holding the ball too long?  

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

You don’t think the fact that defenses can disguise coverages without even thinking about stopping a run game has to do with Josh holding the ball too long?  

 

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors.

 

It's a factor. But we saw the Patriots utilize a short, quick passing game in replacement of a running game for YEARS. It can be done. We aren't even trying it. Which is weird considering Daboll was with the Pats during that time.

[DCOrange]

The line about the Bills ranking 1st in the league in success rate on man runs vs. near the bottom of the league on zone runs was interesting to me.

 

Also chuckled at the line about teams trying to turn Allen into a pocket passer. Any time there's discussion of a QB struggling, you'll almost always find that line.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

The line about the Bills ranking 1st in the league in success rate on man runs vs. near the bottom of the league on zone runs was interesting to me.

 

Also chuckled at the line about teams trying to turn Allen into a pocket passer. Any time there's discussion of a QB struggling, you'll almost always find that line.

SO DUMB!

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

The author uses this video as evidence for what you're suggesting Allen should be doing:

 

https://streamable.com/rl02sf

 

This is an empty set WITH A SEVEN STEP DROP! There are two checkdown options but it's obvious the intent on this play is for a deep pass...there is a reason he holds the ball for a long time and his short passes are dump offs: that's largely what's being called/available.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

The author uses this video as evidence for what you're suggesting Allen should be doing:

 

https://streamable.com/rl02sf

 

This is an empty set WITH A SEVEN STEP DROP! There are two checkdown options but it's obvious the intent on this play is for a deep pass...there is a reason he holds the ball for a long time and his short passes are dump offs: that's largely what's being called/available.

 

Exactly.

 

However, in some fairness to both Daboll and Josh, the example in that video is on 3rd and 18. I get wanting to push it deeper in that situation. But even if they just picked up 8 yards, it would have put us in solid FG range. Instead of turning it over.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Exactly.

 

However, in some fairness to both Daboll and Josh, the example in that video is on 3rd and 18. I get wanting to push it deeper in that situation. But even if they just picked up 8 yards, it would have put us in solid FG range. Instead of turning it over.

I don't think the author gets his conclusions right, but that's a little beside the issue I know...the idea that there are a lot of underneath/short routes to be exploited a la Brady's Patriots doesn't ring true to me. To my eye, everything underneath w Daboll is a dig or curl with very little room for YAC which makes those throws less appealing...McDaniels got his guys in space moving forward, Daboll doesn't seem to have the same eye for the short stuff imo. Especially now with Beasley obviously limited by his injuries.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I don't think the author gets his conclusions right, but that's a little beside the issue I know...the idea that there are a lot of underneath/short routes to be exploited a la Brady's Patriots doesn't ring true to me. To my eye, everything underneath w Daboll is a dig or curl with very little room for YAC which makes those throws less appealing...McDaniels got his guys in space moving forward, Daboll doesn't seem to have the same eye for the short stuff imo. Especially now with Beasley obviously limited by his injuries.

 

Right, but we know the plays are there in the playbook since we've seen the Pats do it. Daboll needs to figure it out.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right, but we know the plays are there in the playbook since we've seen the Pats do it. Daboll needs to figure it out.

And not to keep beating this drum but when you lack a credible threat of a run game the defensive line can play much more freely...the offensive line's inability to run block in any meaningful way is imo the largest contributing factor to our struggles on offense.

[Patrick Duffy]

Well it's a little bit of many things imo. First injuries/ covid list players missing, which is biggest factor in OL being so bad. Also, Bills have a hard time with teams that feature top RB;s it seems (Henry, Taylor) which falls on DL and maybe the scheme for those types of RB's/offenses.

 

Add in Bills have no run game and opponents know this and have 0 respect for it. Sprinkle in Daboll's questionable play calling at times along with a few bad decisions by Josh, those things can be a reason I would think

 

 

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Success said:

To me, 99% of Allen's regression is factors he can't control.

 

Bad protection & run game. Similar issues to last year when he did well - but clearly, defenses have adjusted to who the Bills are.  When a D doesn't respect the run game, it gets much harder for a QB.

 

I don’t disagree with you at all, but how can you know if you have a tying game or not when your top RB in singletary has less than 20 more carries than your QB.  I mean I’d get it if this was the Ravens with Jackson but IMO does anyone even KNOW if your team could run? They don’t seem to even try in a game to do it.

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

The transition from a Bills team on the ascend (the past couple seasons) to a team circling the drain is humbling.  It's tough to take how quickly things can go South.

 

 

 

 

As crazy as this sounds, I do not think the Bills are far away from a fix. I do not know if they can get it done within this season. The Bills built the roster to challenge KC and the league changed around them. The good news is the rest of the AFC looks weak.

[TN Bills Fan]

The Bills have gotten old at key positions on both lines very quickly: Darryl Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Vernon Butler.  Star can't stay on the field.  2 high picks seem to be a bust: Epeneza, and Cody Ford.   I think they thought those older players would have another year in them and bridge them to a developing Basham and Rousseau.  The bridge got old and sunk.  They have now played 4 good teams and lost to 3 of them.  With both Beasley and Samuels showing their age this may not be an easy fix.

[BillsFanSD]

Allen isn't the problem -- he's the reason why we still have a winning record and still have a good shot at the division title.  Put a replacement-level QB under center and we're probably sitting at 3-7 or something.

 

As others have noted, our problems boil down to a complete inability to run the football (almost entirely an o-line problem) and a general inability to defend against teams that feature a power running game.  I don't feel that bad about the latter.  Lots of teams don't defend the run well these days because so few teams are built that way.  It makes more sense to build our defense around beating the KCs and NEs of the world, so I can live with some struggles against teams like IND and TEN.  But the offense's struggles are just unacceptable IMO.

[ngbills]

18 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

Allen isn't the problem -- he's the reason why we still have a winning record and still have a good shot at the division title.  Put a replacement-level QB under center and we're probably sitting at 3-7 or something.

But for argument sake - he could be why we 6-4 and not 9-1 or 8-2. That is a better debate than saying he is the reason we are not 3-7. This D has been lights out and a ton of QB's could have us at 6-4 especially with the easy schedule. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

But for argument sake - he could be why we 6-4 and not 9-1 or 8-2. That is a better debate than saying he is the reason we are not 3-7. This D has been lights out and a ton of QB's could have us at 6-4 especially with the easy schedule. 

I would be interested in seeing your list of guys who would have this team at 6-4. Specifically which other ton of QBS would have won the Chiefs game.

[Big Blitz]

And 21 TDs to 8 INTs.  

 

Allen hasn't regressed but oline and running game have 

 

And Herbert got to play Pittsburgh's JV defense last night.  It's nice to dump it off to a RB that makes 6 guys miss 

 

This Ruiz hates Allen - for those that don't follow him on Twitter.  But the other stuff about the O is correct and Allen can only over come so much.  Especially with Beasley hurt and Sanders beginning to run out of gas. 

 

Heard this stat today..  Sanders is currently NUMBER 1 in air yards per target (it might be per catch) in the league - and he is dead LAST in YAC.  Only Diggs and Knox have been good run after catch.   

Edited November 22, 2021 by Big Blitz