Again the offense is just off....

[The Frankish Reich]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/josh-allen-patrick-mahomes-two-high-cover-two-data-11637552010?st=eszmchtgi8gx64h&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

The problem for offenses like the Chiefs and Bills is they thrive on going deep and aren’t as accustomed to nickeling and diming their way down the field. On early downs, excluding situations when the game is out of hand, Kansas City has passed 62.3% of the time—the second most often in the league entering Sunday’s games, according to rbsdm.com. 

The team that’s far and away first in that early-down passing metric: the Bills, at 68.7%. 

Typically, that’s one of the things that makes their offenses cutting edge and effective. But their struggles to do that against these defenses they’re seeing more often has weaponized their own styles against them. 

 

***

 

Allen hasn’t struggled quite as much as Mahomes in these situations, with 0.187 EPA against two-high going into Sunday. But it has also been deployed against him effectively, with the past few weeks showing how. The team that used it most against him, the Jaguars, limited what had been the NFL’s best offense to its worst output of the season. Allen, afterward, said Jacksonville used “two-high shells forcing us to throw underneath” and that he didn’t do a good enough job against it.  

“We’re going to learn from this,” he added. 

Fortunately for Allen, the next week he played the New York Jets, who apparently didn’t know much about this. They used two-high just three times against him—and Allen torched them in a 45-17 win. 

[cisco2403]

23 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The Bills aren’t terrible. They just aren’t anywhere near as good as they were hyped up to be. After ten games that’’s clear now. Last night the Chargers looked like the Bills want to look, with a no name support cast around a young stud QB. And yet, the Chargers almost blew it and have the same record as our Bills. Things are going to have break the Bills way to make the playoffs. I don’t see this roster beating the Patriots or the Buccaneers. 

Disagree here. The Chargers have as good of a supporting cast around Herbert as there is in the league. Maybe even better than ours when you consider their offensive line. Keenan Allen has consistently been one of the best receivers in the league and Mike Williams is very good. Jared Cook is a decent TE and Ekeler is hands down better than any RB we have. He is at least a top 10 back and one of the best pass catching backs in the league. Their offensive line is probably top 5. 

[Fan in Chicago]

12 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Every national show this morning is ripping the Buffalo offense. Saying all the same things.  The offense is one-dimensional and completely finesse.  No physicality whatsoever.  Teams game plan to make the opponent one dimensional and the Bills do it themselves and make it so easy for opposing defense.

Justifiably so. The issue is lingering, festering. I find it shocking that McD hasn't forced Daboll to change his philosophies. Lack of balance has been an issue from game 1 and yet we see little to no change. 

 

McD is a HC, the team should be steered in the direction he wants. Either he is fine with the philosophy or is too weak to make Daboll change. Either way, if the O doesn't change, this season will end up as a MASSIVE disappointment given the (paper) talent and expectations we had at the beginning and a month back.  

[jkeerie]

40 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I tend to agree.  Defense was simply unable to stop long methodical drives.  Bills only had three possessions in the first half.  The third after the McKenzie fumble really ended the game.  This game was mostly on the D.

 

But something more cosmic is wrong with this team.  The personnel is better than last year, but the team much worse.  I don't know what it is, maybe the vax issue which is galling to me and might be to others on the team when key guys are out because they won't get vaxed.  It gives other teams--almost all of whom have more players vaxed--a competitive advantage.  Maybe it has nothing to do with that.  But something is wrong in that locker room IMO.  

I think you are likely more right than wrong on this.  This team isn't as together as they were last year.  Covid and the vax issue has divided this country, workplaces, communities, families.  It stands to reason he could divide a team.  In the pressers the players and coaches are very guarded when the subject or player availability is mentioned.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

6 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Justifiably so. The issue is lingering, festering. I find it shocking that McD hasn't forced Daboll to change his philosophies. Lack of balance has been an issue from game 1 and yet we see little to no change. 

 

McD is a HC, the team should be steered in the direction he wants. Either he is fine with the philosophy or is too weak to make Daboll change. Either way, if the O doesn't change, this season will end up as a MASSIVE disappointment given the (paper) talent and expectations we had at the beginning and a month back.  

Agree. There seems to be a philosophical divide, McD in his press conferences doesn't seem to sound like Daboll coaches. He believes the NFL requires you to  attempt to stay balanced. Daboll's actions would tell us he believes it's still 2-3 years ago still, and when balance was a much reduced requirement for offenses.

[Casey D]

1 hour ago, jkeerie said:

I think you are likely more right than wrong on this.  This team isn't as together as they were last year.  Covid and the vax issue has divided this country, workplaces, communities, families.  It stands to reason he could divide a team.  In the pressers the players and coaches are very guarded when the subject or player availability is mentioned.  

Well said.  The all for one and one for all philosophy of this team makes this a particularly vexing issue for this group because it calls into question who has who's back, team first and all that.  I mean the Pats are run on fear.  I imagine Belichick tells his team, get vaxed or I'll cut off your nuts.  I mean the difference in philosophy is one reason I love the Bills and hate BB and the Pats.  But as you say, for a team like the Bills it is more likely is divisive. 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Casey D

[Roundybout]

Look at last year. There were guys running all over the place open and Josh was hitting them easily. Deep crossers, post routes, slants, etc. None of that is happening this year. 

[DallasBillsFan1]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Said it before, but yesterday again brought it to light.  24-7 I still thought tds to end the half and start the second was in the cards.

 

But they were terrible.  Yes the weather was bad, but again, just so little from the offense when needed.

 

What's going on?

Aren't the Bills a cold weather, open field team who can handle the elements?  Especially against a dome team?   I didn't see the Colts players dropping passes or turning the ball over.  We lost our one on ones all around.  Their TE Doyle made Knox look like a piker.  Doyle can catch and run block.

Lots of holes to fill in off season.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

We're simply not that good.  It's really as easy as looking at who we've beaten .. and who we've lost to.  This is a middle of the road team, at BEST.  And that's not gonna change as long as Beane ignores the trenches.

How exactly did he "ignore" the trenches?

 

First four (!) Bills draft picks in 2021 were OL or DL, our first pick year before was DL, we got Star back this year, he resigned Williams and Feliciano and it is hard to argue that at least first one was above average in pass blocking last year.

 

You can say that he is making wrong moves but he is not ignoring DL and OL.

 

And I am always wondering what are fans expecting. In my understanding there were like 3 or 4 interior linemen available in FA who were "sure" upgrades versus what we had. But there are 32 teams in the league, competing for same players. Some players want to go elsewhere, some just want money and maybe Beane didn't want to overpay (which is a good thing in general). Maybe he really should draft Humphrey instead of Basham, but it is not like he has thousands of options and he is blind to see them. Again, we can always argue that he made wrong moves but he is not ignoring trenches.

[zow2]

We had that ridiculous points differential for a 6-3 record, and yesterday was like a market correction.  You knew that somewhere along the way, that differential would get closer to what the norm should be.   

[OP Blue]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Said it before, but yesterday again brought it to light.  24-7 I still thought tds to end the half and start the second was in the cards.

 

But they were terrible.  Yes the weather was bad, but again, just so little from the offense when needed.

 

What's going on?

For a bad weather team, the Bills cannot run the ball and they cannot stop the run.  That is a terrible combination.

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

The Offense has been off.. even when it’s on, it still looks like a grind this year.  
 

That said, I don’t take much away on Offense from yesterday.  
 

They had three possessions in the first half.  All three possessions moved into Indy’s side of the field.  
 

They had two possessions….. TWO, before getting the ball in rain/wind, right before half down 24-7.  
 

I mean.. what offense is going to do much of anything given those circumstances? 

Are you asking about an offense on a winning team?

[newcam2012]

52 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m dying to see Mac Jones against us. He’s been a machine.

I wouldn't go there to say he's been a machine. He's been efficient and effective. He dinks and dunks the ball well. He seems to manage a game and handle pressure well for a young QB. He plays well under their system. He has exceeded my expectations. However, he's not even remotely close to the talent of a Josh Allen. Perhaps the comparasion isn't fair to Jones. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The big thing to me - turnovers.  5 turnovers in the first 7 games.  9 in the last 3.  Yes 1 is mckenzie on a flukey play where he tripped - but there was a 6 point flip in the jags game.  One pick in FG territory where we lost points, and one pick in our territory where we gave them points.  Then in this game one pick put them in good position at the 43 in the first half, the mckenzie debacle, and the icing was that deflected mess play that made it a laugher. 

 

The 2 first half turnovers made this the blowout that it was though - everything they gameplanned for this team was thrown out the window and they went back into spread offense because of it.  I'm not sure they would've been able to stop taylor anyway, but by spotting them field position at the 43 and 2 yardline, they needed 59 yards to get 14 points.  That's unacceptable.

[T master]

2 hours ago, Billzgobowlin said:

That's a lot to ask any offense.  Getting in a hole 24-7 and expecting everything to go right.  There is probably only a couple teams in the league that you would be optimistic about that type of comeback.

 

Yah that is a hell of a hole to get out of but we have seen the Bills score 40 points easily but the D which shows up against not so good teams doesn't show up against teams with a good run game yesterday happens .

 

Usually the D was what kept us in games so Josh could put up the points but the O lone along with the D had to ave failed in order to be called out like they were i didn't watch the game but the score says it all & it looks as if the opponent has a good running game the Bills will be screwed & won't make it very far.

 

Too the Bills running game they need a bigger back that can pound it like a AJ Dillon even if the O line isn't as good as it should be a bigger back has a better chance of running over a LB our backs r good with a above average O line but given the deficiencies they are lacking in more ways than 1 .

 

There were 3 or 4 good size RB's in the last couple of drafts that had proved to be better than Moss yet they passed on them & took Moss which is about the same size as Motor maybe they need to use the FB more but they definitely need something just not sure where the answer lies .

[Matt_In_NH]

Good thing the defense is "on"

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I wouldn't go there to say he's been a machine. He's been efficient and effective. He dinks and dunks the ball well. He seems to manage a game and handle pressure well for a young QB. He plays well under their system. He has exceeded my expectations. However, he's not even remotely close to the talent of a Josh Allen. Perhaps the comparasion isn't fair to Jones. 

 

They stopped turning it over.  They always ran the ball pretty well, they're just doing it a ton now.  Getting into plus down and distance.  

 

They also have one of the best defenses in the league.  Solid rush defense, and they rush the passer well and create turnovers.  Takeaways = field position = points.  

[Jerome007]

50 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I agree.  The defense will have off games now and then.  They were bad yesterday, and the offense did little to help them.

That wasn't an "off game" by the defense in that some key mistakes were made, too many penalties, blown coverages and all. No, they got run all over them, even when it was obvious to all the Colts would run. That was an issue in the past, and sadly, we saw it still is.

 

When Star is back, and when Edmunds is back, having a 3 LB set with Klein also playing most snaps... that can sure help. But bottomline, the Colts OL manhandled badly the Bills DL.

[SoCal Deek]

43 minutes ago, cisco2403 said:

Disagree here. The Chargers have as good of a supporting cast around Herbert as there is in the league. Maybe even better than ours when you consider their offensive line. Keenan Allen has consistently been one of the best receivers in the league and Mike Williams is very good. Jared Cook is a decent TE and Ekeler is hands down better than any RB we have. He is at least a top 10 back and one of the best pass catching backs in the league. Their offensive line is probably top 5. 

And I’ll disagree right back. There’s nobody in the league that’d swap the Chargers receivers for the Bills and their Line is again, a bunch of no names. Ekeler is OK but hardly considered elite.  As I said, they’ve got the same record as the Bills. Just another decent, not great, team …like the Bills. The difference is that nobody picked the Chargers to go to the Super Bowl. Heck they aren’t even supposed to win their Division. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

46 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/josh-allen-patrick-mahomes-two-high-cover-two-data-11637552010?st=eszmchtgi8gx64h&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

The problem for offenses like the Chiefs and Bills is they thrive on going deep and aren’t as accustomed to nickeling and diming their way down the field. On early downs, excluding situations when the game is out of hand, Kansas City has passed 62.3% of the time—the second most often in the league entering Sunday’s games, according to rbsdm.com. 

The team that’s far and away first in that early-down passing metric: the Bills, at 68.7%. 

Typically, that’s one of the things that makes their offenses cutting edge and effective. But their struggles to do that against these defenses they’re seeing more often has weaponized their own styles against them. 

 

***

 

Allen hasn’t struggled quite as much as Mahomes in these situations, with 0.187 EPA against two-high going into Sunday. But it has also been deployed against him effectively, with the past few weeks showing how. The team that used it most against him, the Jaguars, limited what had been the NFL’s best offense to its worst output of the season. Allen, afterward, said Jacksonville used “two-high shells forcing us to throw underneath” and that he didn’t do a good enough job against it.  

“We’re going to learn from this,” he added. 

Fortunately for Allen, the next week he played the New York Jets, who apparently didn’t know much about this. They used two-high just three times against him—and Allen torched them in a 45-17 win. 

we saw yesterday the problem with the 2-high shell. We have to execute on all the underneath stuff. It’s wide open. But we dropped balls and committed bad penalties at the worst time. That defense just makes an explosive offense dump the ball down the field, and banks on you making mistakes. The way you beat it is to just execute on easy stuff.
 

Can’t have errant 5-yard passes, and dropped balls. The opening second half drive illustrates this. We just dropped like 3 easy balls, and that was it. 
 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Said it before, but yesterday again brought it to light.  24-7 I still thought tds to end the half and start the second was in the cards.

 

But they were terrible.  Yes the weather was bad, but again, just so little from the offense when needed.

 

What's going on?

 

The defense couldn't stop a nosebleed