Week 12: Bills at Saints on Thanksgiving

[newcam2012]

28 minutes ago, ytownblofan said:

 

You mean the same Taysom Hill that has 171 rushing yards on the season? Listen, I get it, the Bills were abysmal against the colts running attack, but lets not kid ourselves into thinking Hill is in the same stratosphere as Jonathan Taylor. The Saints Oline is also extremely banged up compared to the Colts line.

 

You can't factor in the Saints coming off a bad loss without also factoring in that the Bills are also coming off a bad loss. Allen has been more than capable this year. Yes, he hasn't necessarily been the guy we expected, but he also has not been some awful QB. I will give you that the lines leave much to be desired. 

 

The Bills could very well lose this game, but lets not also ignore everything that is going in the Bills favor right now. 

- Saints trotting out Trevor Siemian

- Saints missing potentially both starting RBs and will likely be starting a guy just coming off IR himself

- Saints are missing their TE, their starting DE, and likely at least one OT

- Bills have a clean injury report

- In the games where Buffalo has disappointed this year, each of the following weeks they have covered the spread

 

The Bills have not been elite this year, they have shown flashes of it, but have also shown that when the wheels come loose, it can get ugly - just like several other top teams in the AFC. 

 

Take this all into consideration and it isn't difficult to see why the line is Bills -6. 

Great response. Very fair and thoughtful post. 

[CNYfan]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm thinking more of Breida vs. Moss, but point taken.

The Bills really have no excuses for not winning by at least two scores. This is a total mismatch on paper. 

There you go, again.

[Roundybout]

8 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

Saints maul the Bills with a heavy rushing attack and good defense. This will effectively deliver the dagger to the Bills. 6-5 and as mediocre as most of the drought years. 

 

Always the optimist, eh?

[newcam2012]

35 minutes ago, Logic said:

Welp, there you have it. 

Sterling analysis.

Why give analysis when you won't agree with it?  Do you really need the analysis? Shouldn't your eyes and your football IQ be enough to see it? Elite team are division leaders and they don't get smacked at home vs the Colts and lose on the road to the hapless Jags. Now, go take a seat...

[Casey D]

53 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Great point. Siemian and Hill should be enough to keep the game close. I won't be surprised if the Saints line up Hill and gash the Bills with the run. 

 

Also, the Saints defense has been pretty good not withstanding the Eagles game. They get after the QB and by now we know that's the formula to beat the Bills. I don't see the Bills Oline holding off their pass rush.

 

Factor in home field advantage, Thanksgiving day, Saints coming off a bad loss, Bills won't run the ball, Allen isnt Allen of last year, and both sides of the Bills lines are subpar. 

 

Folks, this Bills team is not elite. Last year was an outliner. I know I will get crucified for that statement. The Bills are above average at best. 

 

Take the points! No way should the Bills be favored by 6. 

 

What exactly is an outliner?  A battle ship?  A tight end like position?  Before I bet good money on your thoughts, I must know.

[newcam2012]

20 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

We will learn nothing from this game...a victory will bring no satisfaction- same ol’ beating up on a crappy/injured team if we win...meh...

Disagree. A win is very important. A loss will hurt the Bills playoff chances. 

14 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

Saints maul the Bills with a heavy rushing attack and good defense. This will effectively deliver the dagger to the Bills. 6-5 and as mediocre as most of the drought years. 

I'm afraid this is true. Hope we are wrong. 

[MiltonWaddams]

1 minute ago, Casey D said:

What exactly is an outliner?  A battle ship?  A tight end like position?  Before I bet good money on your thoughts, I must know.

I believe that it is a cruise for those no longer in the closet. I mean, that sounds about right.

[Roundybout]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Why give analysis when you won't agree with it?  Do you really need the analysis? Shouldn't your eyes and your football IQ be enough to see it? Elite team are division leaders and they don't get smacked at home vs the Colts and lose on the road to the hapless Jags. Now, go take a seat...

 

OK, so which teams are elite then? Because nearly every team in the league has one "bad" loss be it Packers vs. Saints, Titans vs. Texans, us vs. Colts, and so on. 

[Thriftygamer83]

It's hard to gauge how this game could go.  For the one hand we could finally have it all together and completely turned around picture it being like.

Buffalo 45

Saints 0

On the flip side thought we could get completely shelled again and fall to a score of.

Saints 47

Bills 16

If nothing else we could do a complete ground game heavy rushing attack.

Bills 14

Saints 0

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Half of me wishes this game was 40 min from now and half of me wishes it was 40 days from now

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not his best attribute but he appeared capable on Sunday.

 

 

Against Darius Leanard... good stuff.

[dave mcbride]

19 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

Saints maul the Bills with a heavy rushing attack and good defense. This will effectively deliver the dagger to the Bills. 6-5 and as mediocre as most of the drought years. 

Who is going to run the ball for them and who will replace their starting OT and TE?

[newcam2012]

3 minutes ago, Casey D said:

What exactly is an outliner?  A battle ship?  A tight end like position?  Before I bet good money on your thoughts, I must know.

Meaning last season was a tremendous season. They aren't nearly as good as last year. Outliner as in the Bills defied expectations.  Hope that helps.

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, Thriftygamer83 said:

It's hard to gauge how this game could go.  For the one hand we could finally have it all together and completely turned around picture it being like.

Buffalo 45

Saints 0

On the flip side thought we could get completely shelled again and fall to a score of.

Saints 47

Bills 16

If nothing else we could do a complete ground game heavy rushing attack.

Bills 14

Saints 0

 

The Saints aren't going to approach 30 points unless the Bills turn it over a lot. Trevor Siemien is not good, and they have a ton of injuries.  

[Casey D]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

Meaning last season was a tremendous season. They aren't nearly as good as last year. Outliner as in the Bills defied expectations.  Hope that helps.

I think the word you perhaps might be looking for is outlier.  But WTF it is only English.  

[YoloinOhio]

 

[newcam2012]

1 minute ago, Casey D said:

I think the word you perhaps might be looking for is outlier.  But WTF it is only English.  

Yes. I stand corrected. Thank you.

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Yes. I stand corrected. Thank you.

I think it is too soon to say that last year was an outlier.  No doubt they were horrible last week, but that is a recency bias.  I agree that 6 points is begging people to take the Saints.  I want to know who is laying the 6 and keeping the line up?  Maybe James Holzhauer.  :-)   

[Jauronimo]

6 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Yes. I stand corrected. Thank you.

From now on you SIT when corrected! That's the way its gonna be!!!

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I hear you, but he is a legit good pass blocker. That may seem like a secondary task, but having a matador RB in on pass protect can lead to some very bad outcomes. The RB's primary job is to move the ball forward as far as possible when it's in his hands, but with a shaky o-line that last line of defense can become very important (especially for pass heavy teams like the Bills). I don't know how good of a blocker Breida is. He was on the field a lot for a very good pass protect team in 2018 (SF), for what it's worth, but I don't know anything more than that. At the end of the day, though, the dude has 4.38 speed and needs to be on the field. 

 

Breida actually had a couple good blocks in the game.  Surprising with how small he is.