Interesting study...Running Backs fall off a cliff the season after they hit 1800 carries

[stevewin]

What's Tolbert's excuse

[TheBrownBear]

I don't subscribe to the theory that Thurman "fell off the cliff".  There were a lot of things going against him at the time his YPC took a hit (1993-94).  Kelly was aging and not the same guy he was a couple of years earlier, the offensive line was significantly worse, Marchibroda left and the rest of the league had caught up with the K-Gun.  The entire offense lost a step or two during that period.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

How many more carries does Brady need?

[ColoradoBills]

Math is fun.

[thenorthremembers]

7 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

What the heck happened to that guy? Spiller had that one great season in 2012 where he put up nearly 1700 yards from scrimmage (around 1250 rushing and 450 passing.) The highlights from that year are fun to watch and it's among my favorite single season performances of any Bill, guy was incredibly shifty. Definitely one of the more baffling draft picks of all time. Surprisingly he lasted 9 years in the league. 

The Bills outsmarted themselves with Spiller.   They were so worried about his weight and inability to run between the tackles that they didnt use him as a feature back until three years into his career.      Then he ended up under the curse of St. Doug who wanted punishing backs, and huge offensive lineman.   Pretty sure the front office and coaches here essentially wasted an incredible talent. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

6 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

The Bills outsmarted themselves with Spiller.   They were so worried about his weight and inability to run between the tackles that they didnt use him as a feature back until three years into his career.      Then he ended up under the curse of St. Doug who wanted punishing backs, and huge offensive lineman.   Pretty sure the front office and coaches here essentially wasted an incredible talent. 

 

Yeah, Spiller would've fared much better in a zone blocking scheme. They never figured out ways to get him into open space. While I don't think he would've ended up like Chris Johnson given a better situation I think he could've definitely been a Darren Sproles type player. Either way it was a dumb pick 

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, stevewin said:

What's Tolbert's excuse

 

He was the size of a cliff?

[hondo in seattle]

On 11/16/2021 at 6:46 PM, Big Turk said:

Pretty interesting stuff....would be interested in seeing if that's what happened with Thurman...remember he fell off a cliff pretty hard 

 

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

 

EDIT: Thurman fell off the cliff after 1713 regular season carries but with all the additional ones in the playoffs I'm guessing those probably count towards them...

 

 

Interesting but...

 

We all knew RBs have shelf lives.  I just never knew 1800 carries was the magic number.  And I still don't.

 

They only looked at backs from the past 15 years who had at least 2000 carries.   That left them with a sample size of only 8.  Not enough to draw firm conclusions.

 

There are backs - like Shady - who never reached the 2000 carries mark to qualify for this study because they had fallen off their own cliffs long before.  

[BADOLBILZ]

On 11/16/2021 at 11:38 PM, Mango said:

Derek Henry is taller, heavier, and faster than Milano. The way he hits people when he has the football is terrifying. Couldn’t imagine if roles were reversed.

 

Imagine this defense with Henry as sort of a tweener in the nickel. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Henry has the frame of a defensive end.   Financially,   IMO he got bad advice staying at RB.    Despite being as good of a RB as anyone could have ever dreamed.......he is quite possibly on the backside of his earnings potential and has "only" earned $30M.     Doesn't take long to earn that if you can rush the passer a little.   Jerry Hughes is a player the casual NFL fan barely knows.......he was a virtual bust for his first team and hasn't had a double digit sack season since 2014 and he has earned $80M.   Not saying Hughes is not good..........but Henry is a really special athlete who might end up in the HOF even if he flames out soon because a RB producing 2,000 rushing yards NOW is maybe impossible for someone except him.    Just not how the league works anymore.

[Bruce Smith]

I think with a an avg back I buy this.  With a HOF quality back I do not.  

[Numark3]

On 11/17/2021 at 4:11 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

What the heck happened to that guy? Spiller had that one great season in 2012 where he put up nearly 1700 yards from scrimmage (around 1250 rushing and 450 passing.) The highlights from that year are fun to watch and it's among my favorite single season performances of any Bill, guy was incredibly shifty. Definitely one of the more baffling draft picks of all time. Surprisingly he lasted 9 years in the league. 

he came into the league at the wrong time and for the wrong team.  He gets drafted the past couple years and he’d be a stud 

[TBBills]

On 11/16/2021 at 10:52 PM, Mango said:

Just wait until we get Spiller in space!

This post got me winded.