Interesting study...Running Backs fall off a cliff the season after they hit 1800 carries

[Big Turk]

Pretty interesting stuff....would be interested in seeing if that's what happened with Thurman...remember he fell off a cliff pretty hard 

 

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

 

EDIT: Thurman fell off the cliff after 1713 regular season carries but with all the additional ones in the playoffs I'm guessing those probably count towards them...

Edited November 17, 2021 by Big Turk

[stuvian]

what about Peterson? In a related study I tend to pass out after 12 (Canadian) beer and a few shots of Jameson 

Edited November 17, 2021 by stuvian

[wvbillsfan]

Interesting but I wonder what more current information looks like

 I’m not doing the research because I don’t care that much but it’s a pretty cool article

 Thanks for posting

[Cruiserplayer]

16 minutes ago, stuvian said:

what about Peterson? In a related study I tend to pass out after 12 (Canadian) beer and a few shots of Jameson 

Wussy 

[Sugar High JA17]

for sure man, im not gonna sweat it too dude, I live in the now also, Some call it a hologram in the sports planet

[stuvian]

this league is so geeked up on stats. In related news people get old and old football players get beat up. A shocking development

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

So you're saying Devin Singletary should be good for another decade then...

[BillsFan619]

14 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

So you're saying Devin Singletary should be good for another decade then...

I’m thinking at least two more decades, bro. 😜

[TampaBillsJunkie]

33 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said:

I’m thinking at least two more decades, bro. 😜

I'll take a few more good games.  If Breida didn't cough it up, he'd be playing a lot more.  Singlemoss is not getting it done. Draft  RB and OL early or go get Fournette, Connor, Mostert or Mack but don't overpay.

Edited November 17, 2021 by TampaBillsJunkie

[BuffaloBillyG]

Frank Gore passed 1800 carries in 2012.

 

Since then he topped 1,000 in a season 3 times. Gained another 7,000 yards. His ypc DID drop significantly after 2012...he now sits at 3736 carries. Wheels fell of twice for him. 

 

That isn't common. He is an outlier. But man, how impressive is that? Guy is a freak of nature. Glad the was a Bill for a season. 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

If I'm doing my math correctly, Shady put up seasons of 1267 (5.4 YPR) and 1138 (4.0 YPR) yards rushing well after he passed 1800 carries. He hit the wall more around 2100 rushes. 

[Mango]

2 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

So you're saying Devin Singletary should be good for another decade then...

Just wait until we get Spiller in space!

[badassgixxer05]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

Just wait until we get Spiller in space!

Spiller was a dangerous dude. For a season or two then he fell off that cliff. Man do i miss those breakaway runs. Pretty sure a bunch of dl in the league can run moss/singletary down from behind..

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Pretty interesting stuff....would be interested in seeing if that's what happened with Thurman...remember he fell off a cliff pretty hard 

 

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

 

EDIT: Thurman fell off the cliff after 1713 regular season carries but with all the additional ones in the playoffs I'm guessing those probably count towards them...

 

 

That article is from 2015.

 

They don't mass produce the RB's like those discussed in that article anymore.

 

It's the rare one that's still at his peak past age 26 now.    

 

Nowadays you gotta' count the college touches as well............the starting RB's of today are mostly the athletes that used to back up the starting RB's of yesterday.........and those dudes weren't good for 1800 carries.

 

The athletes that used to dominate the RB position now play money positions like receiver..........or moreso as defenders in the pass game.    Patrick Peterson is a good example of what I'm talking about...........he wanted to play RB in college...........his old man said no way.........you are going to play CB and get PAID.

Edited November 17, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[jjmac]

2 hours ago, stuvian said:

what about Peterson? In a related study I tend to pass out after 12 (Canadian) beer and a few shots of Jameson 

Why bother starting with beer?

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That article is from 2015.

 

They don't mass produce the RB's like those discussed in that article anymore.

 

It's the rare one that's still at his peak past age 26 now.    

 

Nowadays you gotta' count the college touches as well............the starting RB's of today are mostly the athletes that used to back up the starting RB's of yesterday.........and those dudes weren't good for 1800 carries.

 

The athletes that used to dominate the RB position now play money positions like receiver..........or moreso as defenders in the pass game.    Patrick Peterson is a good example of what I'm talking about...........he wanted to play RB in college...........his old man said no way.........you are going to play CB and get PAID.

 

You mean his Dad was like:

 

 

[Mango]

30 minutes ago, badassgixxer05 said:

Spiller was a dangerous dude. For a season or two then he fell off that cliff. Man do i miss those breakaway runs. Pretty sure a bunch of dl in the league can run moss/singletary down from behind..

Unsure if you were kicking around here those days but “getting Spiller in space” was basically a weekly thread season after season. 

[Mango]

29 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That article is from 2015.

 

They don't mass produce the RB's like those discussed in that article anymore.

 

It's the rare one that's still at his peak past age 26 now.    

 

Nowadays you gotta' count the college touches as well............the starting RB's of today are mostly the athletes that used to back up the starting RB's of yesterday.........and those dudes weren't good for 1800 carries.

 

The athletes that used to dominate the RB position now play money positions like receiver..........or moreso as defenders in the pass game.    Patrick Peterson is a good example of what I'm talking about...........he wanted to play RB in college...........his old man said no way.........you are going to play CB and get PAID.

Derek Henry is taller, heavier, and faster than Milano. The way he hits people when he has the football is terrifying. Couldn’t imagine if roles were reversed.

 

Imagine this defense with Henry as sort of a tweener in the nickel. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

6 hours ago, badassgixxer05 said:

Spiller was a dangerous dude. For a season or two then he fell off that cliff. Man do i miss those breakaway runs. Pretty sure a bunch of dl in the league can run moss/singletary down from behind..

 

What the heck happened to that guy? Spiller had that one great season in 2012 where he put up nearly 1700 yards from scrimmage (around 1250 rushing and 450 passing.) The highlights from that year are fun to watch and it's among my favorite single season performances of any Bill, guy was incredibly shifty. Definitely one of the more baffling draft picks of all time. Surprisingly he lasted 9 years in the league. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I guess this matches the not so new convention that RBs fall off of a cliff after 30 yo. Figure most main back average 250-300 touches per season which takes 6-8 seasons and they start at 21-22. it all adds up! 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Over 29 years of fanhood