Week 11 Colts Week

[Do The Reich Thing]

We cannot go 1-3 against the AFC South... Must win this

[Gambit]

11 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Not exactly about the Colts game but looking at the current standings - Who do you root for in the Pats-Titans game in two weeks? I'm thinking you have to root for the Pats right if we're to have any shot at the bye week in the playoffs.

As long as Buffalo handles their business, we want the Pats to win since they wouldn't be able to catch us.

[Greg S]

15 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Not exactly about the Colts game but looking at the current standings - Who do you root for in the Pats-Titans game in two weeks? I'm thinking you have to root for the Pats right if we're to have any shot at the bye week in the playoffs.

 

That's a good question. Honestly it will be both good and bad for the Bills no matter the outcome. The perfect outcome would be a tie but what are the odds that happens. 

[Royale with Cheese]

Wentz is quietly having a good year.

[Solomon Grundy]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

Wentz is quietly having a good year.

As quiet as a church mouse 

[dave mcbride]

32 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Not exactly about the Colts game but looking at the current standings - Who do you root for in the Pats-Titans game in two weeks? I'm thinking you have to root for the Pats right if we're to have any shot at the bye week in the playoffs.

You kind of have to root for the Pats because vs. the Pats, the Bills can control their own destiny. Vs. Tennessee, they can't. They need help.

[eball]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You kind of have to root for the Pats because vs. the Pats, the Bills can control their own destiny. Vs. Tennessee, they can't. They need help.

 

Yup.  I think 13-4 is what it will take to clinch the #1 seed without relying on tiebreakers, which means Tennessee needs to lose three games.  Their schedule looks horribly easy on paper, however...

[Process]

Colts are definitely being overrated a bit here. Their defense is good at forcing turnovers but is otherwise terrible. 

 

If the Bills are on their game we should win comfortably. 

 

Reading this thread reminds me of the end of last year when everyone was terrified of playing the Ravens in the playoffs.

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

He did injure/reinjure his ankle, but no word yet on the severity.

 

with him in, we get no pressure on QB.  With him out, not sure if there is much difference.  DL came on (well, Oliver did) yesterday.  Would like to see that more sustained against an actual NFL QB.  

36 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

We cannot go 1-3 against the AFC South... Must win this

 

may want to change your username this week, traitor!

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yup.  I think 13-4 is what it will take to clinch the #1 seed without relying on tiebreakers, which means Tennessee needs to lose three games.  Their schedule looks horribly easy on paper, however...

You may laugh, but divisional games can be tougher than one expects and Jax is playing teams tough now for the most part. They put 454 yards (198 rushing) vs TN earlier this season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202110100jax.htm. TN will probably win, but I don’t see it as a gimme.  Miami is kinda the same deal. But yeah, on paper it’s a pretty easy schedule overall.

Edited November 15, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Rumblinstumblin]

57 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Depends on this week for me. If we win then I'll hope the Titans go down. A loss to the Colts and we need to worry more about the division with NE potentially taking the lead in a Bills lose/Pats win situation this weekend.

Probably don't know till the week of, but I'm more concerned with the Pats than whatever is left of the Titans right now. Bills should've beat those same Titans at full strength in a game that was on the road and in Monday Night prime time (more difficult than an early slot Sunday game). It's annoying seeing the few pundits I've seen overrate them. I personally think the Colts are better outside of Wentz fumbling the bag. This Colts game will be a big test for the Bills

Edited November 15, 2021 by Rumblinstumblin

[eball]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You may laugh, but divisional games can be tougher than one expects and Jax is playing teams tough now for the most part. They put 454 yards (198 rushing) vs TN earlier this season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202110100jax.htm. TN will probably win, but I don’t see it as a gimme.  Miami is kinda the same deal. But yeah, on paper it’s a pretty easy schedule overall.

 

I keep expecting Tennessee to break down but they've been solid.  Maybe the Bills can just run the table and make it a moot point!

[Royale with Cheese]

We should win and don't expect a blowout.  We should be able to score and I don't think they should put more than 21.

I think 28-20 Bills.

[msw2112]

The Colts are tough and are better than their record suggests.  They are well coached and have some difference makers on both sides of the ball (Taylor, Nelson on Offense, Leonard on defense).  Wentz is a wild card, but capable of playing well.  They gave the Bills a run for their money in the playoffs last year with Rivers at QB.  If both teams play their best game, I think the Bills win it, but if the Bills don't play their best, they could lose this game.

[Logic]

The thing that scares me about this game is the Colts defensive line.

Grover Stewart and Deforest Buckner have the potential to give the Bills' o-line fits.

The key to a potential Bills win is Spencer Brown being healthy. The difference in pass protection and run blocking with him in the lineup is stark.

[Hebert19]

I think we will rattle Wentz...and he will toss a few our way as a result. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The Colts are a good team.   Wentz at QB is, to my mind, a huge downgrade from Phillip Rivers.    Kudos to Frank Reich and OC Marcus Brady for coaching up Wentz to the same QB rating, very few INTs, only about 20 ypg less passing, and putting the offense in about the same place (8th vs 9th for points) as their offense under Rivers.  When you consider that they swapped a potential HOF with one of the best football minds in the game for a QB who looked like a total hot mess last year, That's Some Coaching.

 

On offense, the Colts lost their long time all-star LT Anthony Castanzo to retirement.  Thanks to the Chiefs kicking him to the curb, they were able to pick up Eric Fisher who is very good.  It's not often a team loses a franchise LT and can pick up another without a burp.  Other than that, they were able to bring back almost everyone but their backup QB.  Pittman looks to have taken a step in his second season.  Solid offense, #8 overall after week 9.  Not as dangerous passing as rushing, but like Tennessee they force you to come up with a strategy to defend both. 

 

On defense, it's a different story.  I don't follow the Colts too closely, but one way or another they've lost players at every position group on D.

In FA they lost both last year's starting DE and their starting MLB:

Justin Houston, who contributed 8 sacks last season and gave us fits in the playoff game, went to the Ravens

Denico Autry, who contributed 7.5 sacks last season, went to Tennessee where he gave us fits a few weeks ago.

They were replaced with Muhammed (depth previous seasons), and rookie Kwity Paye.

Anthony Walker went to the Browns.  They seem to have replaced him by moving last year's RLB Bobby Okereke to MLB and backfilling with 7th round rookie Zaire Franklin.   I don't know enough about the Colts defensive scheme to know how significant that is.  How much time are they in base D vs nickle or dime?

 

But....in the secondary, both their starting safeties (Blackmon and Willis) are currently on IR.  Blackmon tore his Achilles and is done for the season after 6 games.

Willis has a groin injury and is not eligible to return this week.

 

3 of their 5 losses were by less than 1 score, and 2 were in OT.

3 of them were in the first 3 weeks of the season and arguably, reflect the time needed for Brady and Reich to complete the operation to extract Wentz head from his butt and get him to play to his potential again.

 

Unless the Bills D is able to get into Wentz' head, expect a physical, tight, hard-fought game.

 

I saw a lot of promising stuff yesterday from our beloved Buffalo Bills, but I also saw trouble - the fumbles by Motor and Brieda; Josh's INT; a couple other times when Josh wasn't picked but threw very dangerous balls; how soft and sloppy the Bills D grew once they had a lead.  The Bills still have stuff to clean up.

 

It's Showtime, Baby; this is the time of the season when contenders and pretenders begin to separate. 

 

The Bills flunked their first test as a defense against a strong rushing team that can also pass the ball.  Will they come up with a better plan this time?  We'll see Sunday.
 

 

 

[Blainorama5]

What's the weather forecast?  It's against the Colts - had to ask.  😉

[appoo]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Wentz is quietly having a good year.

Jonathan Taylor is loudly having a better year

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

The thing that scares me about this game is the Colts defensive line.

Grover Stewart and Deforest Buckner have the potential to give the Bills' o-line fits.

The key to a potential Bills win is Spencer Brown being healthy. The difference in pass protection and run blocking with him in the lineup is stark.

 

I have not followed the Colts that closely. 

 

But they lost 2 of the 4 players who made their defensive line scary last season, in Houston and Autry, and my impression is that their DL is no longer as fierce as it was.

 

Of course, we have shown that no DL is too bad to give the Bills fits if they don't run the ball and stay out of 3rd and Forever.